Analytical approach to quantile estimation in regional frequency analysis based on fuzzy framework

Regional frequency analysis is widely used for estimating quantiles of hydrological extreme events at sparsely gauged/ungauged target sites in river basins. It involves identification of a region (group of watersheds) resembling watershed of the target site, and use of information pooled from the region to estimate quantile for the target site. In the analysis, watershed of the target site is assumed to completely resemble watersheds in the identified region in terms of mechanism underlying generation of extreme event. In reality, it is rare to find watersheds that completely resemble each other. Fuzzy clustering approach can account for partial resemblance of watersheds and yield region(s) for the target site. Formation of regions and quantile estimation requires discerning information from fuzzy-membership matrix obtained based on the approach. Practitioners often defuzzify the matrix to form disjoint clusters (regions) and use them as the basis for quantile estimation. The defuzzification approach (DFA) results in loss of information discerned on partial resemblance of watersheds. The lost information cannot be utilized in quantile estimation, owing to which the estimates could have significant error. To avert the loss of information, a threshold strategy (TS) was considered in some prior studies. In this study, it is analytically shown that the strategy results in under-prediction of quantiles. To address this, a mathematical approach is proposed in this study and its effectiveness in estimating flood quantiles relative to DFA and TS is demonstrated through Monte-Carlo simulation experiments and case study on Mid-Atlantic water resources region, USA. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Decreasing intensity of monsoon low-frequency intraseasonal variability over India

Understanding the changing nature of the intraseasonal oscillatory (ISO) modes of Indian summer monsoon manifested by active and break phase, and their association with extreme rainfall events are necessary for probabilistic estimation of flood-related risks in a warming climate. Here, using ground-based observed rainfall, we define an index to measure the strength of monsoon ISOs and show that the relative strength of the northward-propagating low-frequency ISO (20-60 days) modes have had a significant decreasing trend during the past six decades, possibly attributed to the weakening of large-scale circulation in the region during monsoon season. This reduction is compensated by a gain in synoptic-scale (3-9 days) variability. The decrease in low-frequency ISO variability is associated with a significant decreasing trend in the percentage of extreme events during the active phase of the monsoon. However, this decrease is balanced by significant increasing trends in the percentage of extreme events in the break and transition phases. We also find a significant rise in the occurrence of extremes during early and late monsoon months, mainly over eastern coastal regions. Our study highlights the redistribution of rainfall intensity among periodic (low-frequency) and non-periodic (extreme) modes in a changing climate scenario.

Design and Evaluation of Torsional Probes for Multifrequency Atomic Force Microscopy

Multifrequency atomic force microscopy is a powerful nanoscale imaging and characterization technique that involves excitation of the atomic force microscope (AFM) probe and measurement of its response at multiple frequencies. This paper reports the design, fabrication, and evaluation of AFM probes with a specified set of torsional eigen-frequencies that facilitate enhancement of sensitivity in multifrequency AFM. A general approach is proposed to design the probes, which includes the design of their generic geometry, adoption of a simple lumped-parameter model, guidelines for determination of the initial dimensions, and an iterative scheme to obtain a probe with the specified eigen-frequencies. The proposed approach is employed to design a harmonic probe wherein the second and the third eigen-frequencies are the corresponding harmonics of the first eigen-frequency. The probe is subsequently fabricated and evaluated. The experimentally evaluated eigen-frequencies and associated mode shapes are shown to closely match the theoretical results. Finally, a simulation study is performed to demonstrate significant improvements in sensitivity to the second-and the third-harmonic spectral components of the tip-sample interaction force with the harmonic probe compared to that of a conventional probe.

Experimental characterisation and performance evaluation of a coaxial current transformer for measurement of insulated gate bipolar transistor switching current

Measurement of device current during switching characterisation of an insulated gate bipolar transistor (IGBT) requires a current sensor with low insertion impedance and high bandwidth. This study presents an experimental procedure for evaluating the performance of a coaxial current transformer (CCT), designed for the above purpose. A prototype CCT, which can be mounted directly on a power terminal of a 1200 V/50 A half-bridge IGBT module, is characterised experimentally. The measured characteristics include insertion impedance, gain and phase of the CCT at different frequencies. The bounds of linearity within which the CCT can operate without saturation are determined theoretically, and are also verified experimentally. The experimental study on linearity of the CCT requires a high-amplitude current source. A proportional-resonant (PR) controller-based current-controlled half-bridge inverter is developed for this purpose. A systematic procedure for selection of PR controller parameters is also reported in this study. This set-up is helpful to determine the limit of linearity and also to measure the frequency response of the CCT at realistic amplitudes of current in the low-frequency range.

An evaluation of the pelagic primary productivity and potential fish yield of Kainji Lake, Nigeria

The environmental conditions of Kainji Lake from 1971/72 to date appear to have stabilized to a large extent, judging from the similarity of physico-chemical parameters investigated in this study over the period. Solar radiation (as reflected in variation in temperature) and pH have remained largely constant over the years, while conductivity (index of nutrient enrichment), though significantly higher in 1995/96, could be described as sporadic and needs further monitoring to ascertain its trend in the lake. While water transparency and dissolved oxygen were higher in 1971/72 compared to the other years, these increases cannot be said to be overwhelming. The lower transparency in 1995/96 was due to the exceptional flood of that year and may have also accounted for the poorer dissolved oxygen concentration compared to the other years due to its impact on photosynthesis. There is no evidence from this study to indicate that primary productivity has increased over the years. Consequently, the observed increase in fish yield by the KLFPP from CAS, which is corroborated by estimates from the MEI, cannot be supported on the basis of improved photosynthetic production. The phenomenal high levels of conductivity recorded during certain periods in 1995 (600 mu mhos cm super(-1)) are hitherto unknown in the lake and may indicate a trend towards nutrient enrichment. However, it is premature at this stage to conclude on its long-term impact on primary production and consequently, on fish yield. Secondly, the notion of overfishing in the 80s (Ita, 1993), may need to be further examined as low or dwindling catches could be due to a number of factors among which are the level of fishing effort, the type and efficiency of gears and the intensity of sampling. It would appear that with the intervention of KLFPP, the better management of the lake's fisheries would increase the current level of catch. It also needs to be examined how much of the clupeid fisheries, which is now known to account for a substantial proportion of the total fish yield in Kainji Lake, was included in the sampling of the 80s. (PDF contains 43 pages)

Flood circulation in oligomictic lakes: an undervalued reason for restriction of zooplankton production [Translation from: Memorie dell'Istituto Italiano di Idrobiologia Dott.Marco de Marchi 22 9-52, 1967]

Dormancy has been observed in several species of Cyclops. Animals in dormancy are characterised by almost complete inactivity of the main appendages and sluggish intestinal peristalsis. In Cyclops vicinus dormancy can take place in copepod stages III (19%), IV (78%) and V (3%) but one and the same animal only in one developmental stage. The author gives his own results between frequency of dormancy and photoperiod (20 C, 1000 lux). He concludes that dormancy in C. vicinus can be influenced by day length and can be ended prematurely by short day length.

High frequency wave propagation in the earth: theory and observation

The wave-theoretical analysis of acoustic and elastic waves refracted by a spherical boundary across which both velocity and density increase abruptly and thence either increase or decrease continuously with depth is formulated in terms of the general problem of waves generated at a steady point source and scattered by a radially heterogeneous spherical body. A displacement potential representation is used for the elastic problem that results in high frequency decoupling of P-SV motion in a spherically symmetric, radially heterogeneous medium. Through the application of an earth-flattening transformation on the radial solution and the Watson transform on the sum over eigenfunctions, the solution to the spherical problem for high frequencies is expressed as a Weyl integral for the corresponding half-space problem in which the effect of boundary curvature maps into an effective positive velocity gradient. The results of both analytical and numerical evaluation of this integral can be summarized as follows for body waves in the crust and upper mantle:

1) In the special case of a critical velocity gradient (a gradient equal and opposite to the effective curvature gradient), the critically refracted wave reduces to the classical head wave for flat, homogeneous layers.

2) For gradients more negative than critical, the amplitude of the critically refracted wave decays more rapidly with distance than the classical head wave.

3) For positive, null, and gradients less negative than critical, the amplitude of the critically refracted wave decays less rapidly with distance than the classical head wave, and at sufficiently large distances, the refracted wave can be adequately described in terms of ray-theoretical diving waves. At intermediate distances from the critical point, the spectral amplitude of the refracted wave is scalloped due to multiple diving wave interference.

These theoretical results applied to published amplitude data for P-waves refracted by the major crustal and upper mantle horizons (the Pg, P*, and Pn travel-time branches) suggest that the 'granitic' upper crust, the 'basaltic' lower crust, and the mantle lid all have negative or near-critical velocity gradients in the tectonically active western United States. On the other hand, the corresponding horizons in the stable eastern United States appear to have null or slightly positive velocity gradients. The distribution of negative and positive velocity gradients correlates closely with high heat flow in tectonic regions and normal heat flow in stable regions. The velocity gradients inferred from the amplitude data are generally consistent with those inferred from ultrasonic measurements of the effects of temperature and pressure on crustal and mantle rocks and probable geothermal gradients. A notable exception is the strong positive velocity gradient in the mantle lid beneath the eastern United States (2 x 10^-3 sec^-1), which appears to require a compositional gradient to counter the effect of even a small geothermal gradient.

New seismic-refraction data were recorded along a 800 km profile extending due south from the Canadian border across the Columbia Plateau into eastern Oregon. The source for the seismic waves was a series of 20 high-energy chemical explosions detonated by the Canadian government in Greenbush Lake, British Columbia. The first arrivals recorded along this profile are on the Pn travel-time branch. In northern Washington and central Oregon their travel time is described by T = Δ/8.0 + 7.7 sec, but in the Columbia Plateau the Pn arrivals are as much as 0.9 sec early with respect to this line. An interpretation of these Pn arrivals together with later crustal arrivals suggest that the crust under the Columbia Plateau is thinner by about 10 km and has a higher average P-wave velocity than the 35-km-thick, 62-km/sec crust under the granitic-metamorphic terrain of northern Washington. A tentative interpretation of later arrivals recorded beyond 500 km from the shots suggests that a thin 8.4-km/sec horizon may be present in the upper mantle beneath the Columbia Plateau and that this horizon may form the lid to a pronounced low-velocity zone extending to a depth of about 140 km.

Final Evaluation Memorandum: Strategies for Resolving Low Dissolved Oxygen and Methylmercury Events in Northern Suisun Marsh

The purpose of the project is to improve our understanding about best management practices that can be utilized on diked managed wetlands in Suisun Marsh for reducing the occurrence of low dissolved oxygen (DO) and high methylmercury (MeHg) events associated primarily with fall flood-up practices. Low DO events are of concern because they can lead to undue stress and even mortality of sensitive aquatic organisms. Elevated MeHg levels are of concern because MeHg is a neurotoxin that bio-magnifies up the food chain and can cause deleterious effects to higher trophic level consumers such as piscivorous fish, birds, and mammals (including humans). This study involved two years (2007-2008) of intensive field data collection at two managed wetland sites in northwest Suisun Marsh and their surrounding tidal sloughs, an area with prior documented low DO events. In addition, the study collected limited soils and water quality field data and mapped vegetation for three managed wetland sites in the central interior of Suisun Marsh, for the purpose of examining whether wetlands at other locations exhibit characteristics that could indicate potential for similar concerns. In Year 1 of the study, the objective was to identify the baseline conditions in the managed wetlands and determine which physical management conditions could be modified for Year 2 to reduce low DO and MeHg production issues most effectively. The objective of Year 2 was to evaluate the effectiveness of these modified management actions at reducing production of low DO and elevated MeHg conditions within the managed wetlands and to continue improving understanding of the underlying biogeochemical processes at play. This Final Evaluation Memorandum examined a total of 19 BMPs, 14 involving modified water management operations and the remaining five involving modified soil and vegetation management practices. Some of these BMPs were previously employed and others have not yet been tested. For each BMP this report assesses its efficacy in improving water quality conditions and potential conflicts with wetland management. It makes recommendations for further study (either feasibility assessments or field testing) and whether to consider for future use. Certain previously used BMPs were found to be important contributors to poor water quality conditions and their continued use is not recommended. Some BMPs that could improve water quality conditions appear difficult to implement in regards to compatibility with wetland management; these BMPs require further elaboration and feasibility assessment to determine whether they should be field tested. In practice for any given wetland, there is likely a combination of BMPs that would together have the greatest potential to address the low DO and high MeHg water quality concerns. Consequently, this report makes no sweeping recommendations applicable to large groups of wetlands but instead promotes a careful consideration of factors at each wetland or small groups of wetlands and from that assessment to apply the most effective suite of BMPs. This report also identifies a number of recommended future actions and studies. These recommendations are geared toward improving the process understanding of factors that promote low DO and high MeHg conditions, the extent of these problems in Suisun Marsh, the regulatory basis for the DO standards for a large estuarine marsh, the economics of BMPs, and alternative approaches to BMPs on diked managed wetlands that may address the water quality issues. The most important of these recommendations is that future BMP implementation should be carried out within the context of rigorous scientific evaluation so as to gain the maximum improvement in how to manage these water quality issues in the diked managed wetlands of Suisun Marsh.

River Lune processes. A study of change in the River Lune catchment and recommendations for flood defence management

There has been a perception of increasing river channel instability in north west rivers and the River Lune in particular in recent decades. This has been attributed variously to: (a) long-term trends in precipitation-runoff regime; (b) changes in land-use such as moor-draining and sub-soil draining such that the river is more flashy than previously, and (c) a change in the magnitude-frequency relationships of flow such that high discharges are occurring with increased frequency. Resources are available in the form of rainfall and runoff records, archived information on channel planform, land use statistics and local engineering experience which have not been jointly and fully evaluated. Effective interpretation of the nature of channel change through time with respect to this resource may enhance the Environment Agency's ability to manage the river channel efficiently in the future and will aid the development of effective policy. The results of this study will for the first time, provide robust guidance with respect to long-term channel adjustment and the appropriate management options. The research provides suggestions as to how policy might be developed taking account of other pertinent factors.

NMFS / Interagency Working Group Evaluation of CITES Criteria and Guidelines.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: At present, the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) criteria used to assess whether a population qualifies for inclusion in the CITES Appendices relate to (A) size of the population, (B) area of distribution of the population, and (C) declines in the size of the population. Numeric guidelines are provided as indicators of a small population (less than 5,000 individuals), a small subpopulation (less than 500 individuals), a restricted area of distribution for a population (less than 10,000 km2), a restricted area of distribution for a subpopula-tion (less than 500 km2), a high rate of decline (a decrease of 50% or more in total within 5 years or two generations whichever is longer or, for a small wild population, a decline of 20% or more in total within ten years or three generations whichever is longer), large fluctuations (population size or area of distribution varies widely, rapidly and frequently, with a variation greater than one order of magnitude), and a short-term fluctuation (one of two years or less). The Working Group discussed several broad issues of relevance to the CITES criteria and guidelines. These included the importance of the historical extent of decline versus the recent rate of decline; the utility and validity of incorporating relative population productivity into decline criteria; the utility of absolute numbers for defining small populations or small areas; the appropriateness of generation times as time frames for examining declines; the importance of the magnitude and frequency of fluctuations as factors affecting risk of extinction; and the overall utility of numeric thresh-olds or guidelines.

Growth, mortality and recruitment of Nile perch Lates niloticus (L. Centropomidae) in the Nyanza Gulf of Lake Victoria: an evaluation update

A reassessment of the estimates of growth, mortality and recruitment patterns of Nile Perch, Lates niloticus was made based on data from commercial landings collected during the Catch Assessment Survey Programme. Two sets of length frequency data, one each from beach seining and hook and line fisheries, were analyzed. Values of L8 = 169 and 230 (cm TL) and K= 0.18 yr-1 and 0.195 yr-1 were obtained. The total mortality estimates from the catch curve analysis were Z = 0.72 yr-1 and 0.94 yr-1, respectively, with a natural mortality M of about 0.35 for a mean environmental temperature of 27oC. The highest peak for recruitment was in November, December and January with a minor one in June, indicating recruitment of two cohorts per year. These results are discussed and compared to previously available information on L. niloticus in Lake Victoria.

Evaluation of the In Situ Ichthyoplankton Imaging System (ISIIS): comparison with the traditional (bongo net) sampler

Plankton and larval fish sampling programs often are limited by a balance between sampling frequency (for precision) and costs. Advancements in sampling techniques hold the potential to add considerable efficiency and, therefore, add sampling frequency to improve precision. We compare a newly developed plankton imaging system, In Situ Ichthyoplankton Imaging System (ISIIS), with a bongo sampler, which is a traditional plankton sampling gear developed in the 1960s. Comparative sampling was conducted along 2 transects ~30–40 km long. Over 2 days, we completed 36 ISIIS tow-yo undulations and 11 bongo oblique tows, each from the surface to within 10 m of the seafloor. Overall, the 2 gears detected comparable numbers of larval fishes, representing similar taxonomic compositions, although larvae captured with the bongo were capable of being identified to lower taxonomic levels, especially larvae in the small (<5 mm), preflexion stages. Size distributions of the sampled larval fishes differed considerably between these 2 sampling methods, with the size range and mean size of larval fishes larger with ISIIS than with the bongo sampler. The high frequency and fine spatial scale of ISIIS allow it to add considerable sampling precision (i.e., more vertical sections) to plankton surveys. Improvements in the ISIIS technology (including greater depth of field and image resolution) should also increase taxonomic resolution and decrease processing time. When coupled with appropriate net sampling (for the purpose of collecting and verifying the identification of biological samples), the use of ISIIS could improve overall survey design and simultaneously provide detailed, process-oriented information for fisheries scientists and oceanographers.

Factors influencing the timing and frequency of spawning and fecundity of the goldlined seabream (Rhabdosargus sarba) (Sparidae) in the lower reaches of an estuary

We have studied the reproductive biology of the goldlined seabream (Rhabdosargus sarba) in the lower Swan River Estuary in Western Australia, focusing particularly on elucidating the factors influencing the duration, timing, and frequency of spawning and on determining potential annual fecundity. Our results demonstrate that 1) Rhabdosargus sarba has indeterminate fecundity, 2) oocyte hydration commences soon after dusk (ca. 18:30 h) and is complete by ca. 01:30−04:30 h and 3) fish with ovaries containing migratory nucleus oocytes, hydrated oocytes, or postovulatory follicles were caught between July and November. However, in July and August, their prevalence was low, whereas that of fish with ovaries containing substantial numbers of atretic yolk granule oocytes was high. Thus, spawning activity did not start to peak until September (early spring), when salinities were rising markedly from their winter minima. The prevalence of spawning was positively correlated with tidal height and was greatest on days when the tide changed from flood to ebb at ca. 06:00 h, i.e., just after spawning had ceased. Because our estimate of the average daily prevalence of spawning by females during the spawning season (July to November) was 36.5%, individual females were estimated to spawn, on average, at intervals of about 2.7 days and thus about 45 times during that period. Therefore, because female R. sarba with total lengths of 180, 220, and 260 mm were estimated to have batch fecundities of about 4500, 7700, and 12,400 eggs, respectively, they had potential annual fecundities of about 204,300, 346,100 and 557,500 eggs, respectively. Because spawning occurs just prior to strong ebb tides, the eggs of R. sarba are likely to be transported out of the estuary into coastal waters where salinities remain at ca. 35‰. Such downstream transport would account for the fact that, although R. sarba exhibits substantial spawning activity in the lower Swan River Estuary, few of its early juveniles are recruited into the nearshore shallow waters of this estuary.

Holocene history of the El Niño phenomenon as recorded in flood sediments of northern coastal Peru

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): The Holocene history of flooding in northern coastal Peru is believed to be a proxy record for the El Niño phenomenon. A recently completed set of 30 radiocarbon dates on overbank flood deposits and a tsunami deposit from the Casma region (Figure 1 and Table 1) establishes a chronology for the largest events that have occurred during the last 3500 years. ... The data presented here indicate that events much larger than the one in 1982-1983 may occur with a frequency of about once every 1000 years.

Degradation evaluation of microelectromechanical thermal actuators

Metal based thermal microactuators normally have lower operation temperatures than those of Si-based ones; hence they have great potential for applications. However, metal-based thermal actuators easily suffer from degradation such as plastic deformation. In this study, planar thermal actuators were made by a single mask process using electroplated nickel as the active material, and their thermal degradation has been studied. Electrical tests show that the Ni-based thermal actuators deliver a maximum displacement of ∼20μm at an average temperature of ∼420°C, much lower than that of Si-based microactuators. However, the displacement strongly depends on the frequency and peak voltage of the pulse applied. Back bending was clearly observed at a maximum temperature as low as 240°C. Both forward and backward displacements increase with increasing the temperature up to ∼450°C, and then decreases with power. Scanning electron microscopy observation clearly showed that Ni structure deforms and reflows at power above 50mW. The compressive stress is believed to be responsible for Ni piling-up (creep), while the tensile stress upon removing the pulse current is responsible for necking at the hottest section of the device. Energy dispersive X-ray diffraction analysis revealed severe oxidation of the Ni-structure induced by Joule-heating of the current.