In search of good probability assessors: An experimental comparison of elicitation rules for confidence judgments

In this paper, we use an experimental design to compare the performance of elicitation rules for subjective beliefs. Contrary to previous works in which elicited beliefs are compared to an objective benchmark, we consider a purely subjective belief framework (confidence in one’s own performance in a cognitive task and a perceptual task). The performance of different elicitation rules is assessed according to the accuracy of stated beliefs in predicting success. We measure this accuracy using two main factors: calibration and discrimination. For each of them, we propose two statistical indexes and we compare the rules’ performances for each measurement. The matching probability method provides more accurate beliefs in terms of discrimination, while the quadratic scoring rule reduces overconfidence and the free rule, a simple rule with no incentives, which succeeds in eliciting accurate beliefs. Nevertheless, the matching probability appears to be the best mechanism for eliciting beliefs due to its performances in terms of calibration and discrimination, but also its ability to elicit consistent beliefs across measures and across tasks, as well as its empirical and theoretical properties.

Balancing exploration and exploitation in particle swarm optimization on search tasking

In this study we present a combinatorial optimization method based on particle swarm optimization and local search algorithm on the multi-robot search system. Under this method, in order to create a balance between exploration and exploitation and guarantee the global convergence, at each iteration step if the distance between target and the robot become less than specific measure then a local search algorithm is performed. The local search encourages the particle to explore the local region beyond to reach the target in lesser search time. Experimental results obtained in a simulated environment show that biological and sociological inspiration could be useful to meet the challenges of robotic applications that can be described as optimization problems.

Document timespan normalisation and understanding temporality for clinical records search

Previous qualitative research has highlighted that temporality plays an important role in relevance for clinical records search. In this study, an investigation is undertaken to determine the effect that the timespan of events within a patient record has on relevance in a retrieval scenario. In addition, based on the standard practise of document length normalisation, a document timespan normalisation model that specifically accounts for timespans is proposed. Initial analysis revealed that in general relevant patient records tended to cover a longer timespan of events than non-relevant patient records. However, an empirical evaluation using the TREC Medical Records track supports the opposite view that shorter documents (in terms of timespan) are better for retrieval. These findings highlight that the role of temporality in relevance is complex and how to effectively deal with temporality within a retrieval scenario remains an open question.

In search of inorganic nonlinear optical materials for second harmonic generation

In a search for inorganic oxide materials showing second-order nonlinear optical (NLO) susceptibility, we investigated several berates, silicates, and a phosphate containing trans-connected MO6, octahedral chains or MO5 square pyramids, where, M = d(0): Ti(IV), Nb(V), or Ta(V), Our investigations identified two new NLO structures: batisite, Na2Ba(TiO)(2)Si4O12, containing trans-connected TiO5 octahedral chains, and fresnoite, Ba2TiOSi2O7, containing square-pyramidal TiO5. Investigation of two other materials containing square-pyramidal TiO5 viz,, Cs2TiOP2O7 and Na4Ti2Si8O22. 4H(2)O, revealed that isolated TiO5, square pyramids alone do not cause a second harmonic generation (SHG) response; rather, the orientation of TiO5 units to produce -Ti-O-Ti-O- chains with alternating long and short Ti-O distances in the fresnoite structure is most likely the origin of a strong SHG response in fresnoite,

Visual search and eye movements: Studies of perceptual span

In visual search one tries to find the currently relevant item among other, irrelevant items. In the present study, visual search performance for complex objects (characters, faces, computer icons and words) was investigated, and the contribution of different stimulus properties, such as luminance contrast between characters and background, set size, stimulus size, colour contrast, spatial frequency, and stimulus layout were investigated. Subjects were required to search for a target object among distracter objects in two-dimensional stimulus arrays. The outcome measure was threshold search time, that is, the presentation duration of the stimulus array required by the subject to find the target with a certain probability. It reflects the time used for visual processing separated from the time used for decision making and manual reactions. The duration of stimulus presentation was controlled by an adaptive staircase method. The number and duration of eye fixations, saccade amplitude, and perceptual span, i.e., the number of items that can be processed during a single fixation, were measured. It was found that search performance was correlated with the number of fixations needed to find the target. Search time and the number of fixations increased with increasing stimulus set size. On the other hand, several complex objects could be processed during a single fixation, i.e., within the perceptual span. Search time and the number of fixations depended on object type as well as luminance contrast. The size of the perceptual span was smaller for more complex objects, and decreased with decreasing luminance contrast within object type, especially for very low contrasts. In addition, the size and shape of perceptual span explained the changes in search performance for different stimulus layouts in word search. Perceptual span was scale invariant for a 16-fold range of stimulus sizes, i.e., the number of items processed during a single fixation was independent of retinal stimulus size or viewing distance. It is suggested that saccadic visual search consists of both serial (eye movements) and parallel (processing within perceptual span) components, and that the size of the perceptual span may explain the effectiveness of saccadic search in different stimulus conditions. Further, low-level visual factors, such as the anatomical structure of the retina, peripheral stimulus visibility and resolution requirements for the identification of different object types are proposed to constrain the size of the perceptual span, and thus, limit visual search performance. Similar methods were used in a clinical study to characterise the visual search performance and eye movements of neurological patients with chronic solvent-induced encephalopathy (CSE). In addition, the data about the effects of different stimulus properties on visual search in normal subjects were presented as simple practical guidelines, so that the limits of human visual perception could be taken into account in the design of user interfaces.

Development and Simulation of a Variable Rate Controller for an Air search and Air Sampling Unmanned Aerial System

This report describes the development and simulation of a variable rate controller for a 6-degree of freedom nonlinear model. The variable rate simulation model represents an off the shelf autopilot. Flight experiment involves risks and can be expensive. Therefore a dynamic model to understand the performance characteristics of the UAS in mission simulation before actual flight test or to obtain parameters needed for the flight is important. The control and guidance is implemented in Simulink. The report tests the use of the model for air search and air sampling path planning. A GUI in which a set of mission scenarios, in which two experts (mission expert, i.e. air sampling or air search and an UAV expert) interact, is presented showing the benefits of the method.

An analysis of theories of search and search behavior

Theories of search and search behavior can be used to glean insights and generate hypotheses about how people interact with retrieval systems. This paper examines three such theories, the long standing Information Foraging Theory, along with the more recently proposed Search Economic Theory and the Interactive Probability Ranking Principle. Our goal is to develop a model for ad-hoc topic retrieval using each approach, all within a common framework, in order to (1) determine what predictions each approach makes about search behavior, and (2) show the relationships, equivalences and differences between the approaches. While each approach takes a different perspective on modeling searcher interactions, we show that under certain assumptions, they lead to similar hypotheses regarding search behavior. Moreover, we show that the models are complementary to each other, but operate at different levels (i.e., sessions, patches and situations). We further show how the differences between the approaches lead to new insights into the theories and new models. This contribution will not only lead to further theoretical developments, but also enables practitioners to employ one of the three equivalent models depending on the data available.

Still in Search of the Good Life

At the 2014 G20 held in Brisbane, Australia took the position that climate change is not an economic issue. Most others thought it was - especially the Turkish Prime Minister who is hosting the 2015 G20. It is certainly an economic issue. But, it is not just an economic issue - either in the source or the solution.

Australia takes prickly acacia biocontrol search to India

A project co-funded by Meat & Livestock Australia and the Queensland Government is putting new life into the search for biocontrol agents for prickly acacia (Acacia nilotica), a Weed of National Significance in Australia.

Handpumps: problems and search for remedies

This paper gives a brief survey of research and development work done on hand pumps in India as well as elsewhere and sets out the approach adopted by ASTRA Working Group. Ten ways in which a hand pump breakdown in practice have been identified. The physical reasons behind each type of breakdown analysed. Remedial measures have been developed from this analysis. Laboratory test rigs fabricated to evaluate these measures have been described and some experimental results presented. The course of further work has been charted.

Search for genetic variants influencing human height

Human growth and attained height are determined by a combination of genetic and environmental effects and in modern Western societies > 80% of the observed variation in height is determined by genetic factors. Height is a fundamental human trait that is associated with many socioeconomic and psychosocial factors and health measures, however little is known of the identity of the specific genes that influence height variation in the general population. This thesis work aimed to identify the genetic variants that influence height in the general population by genome-wide linkage analysis utilizing large family samples. The study focused on analysis of three separate sets of families consisting of: 1) 1,417 individuals from 277 Finnish families (FinnHeight), 2) 8,450 individuals from 3,817 families from Australia and Europe (EUHeight) and 3) 9,306 individuals from 3,302 families from the United States (USHeight). The most significant finding in this study was found in the Finnish family sample where we a locus in the chromosomal region 1p21 was linked to adult height. Several regions showed evidence for linkage in the Australian, European and US families with 8q21 and 15q25 being the most significant. The region on 1p21 was followed up with further studies and we were able to show that the collagen 11-alpha-1 gene (COL11A1) residing at this location was associated with adult height. This association was also confirmed in an independent Finnish population cohort (Health 2000) consisting of 6,542 individuals. From this population sample, we estimated that homozygous males and females for this gene variant were 1.1 and 0.6 cm taller than the respective controls. In this thesis work we identified a gene variant in the COL11A1 gene that influences human height, although this variant alone explains only 0.1% of height variation in the Finnish population. We also demonstrated in this study that special stratification strategies such as performing sex-limited analyses, focusing on dizygous twin pairs, analyzing ethnic groups within a population separately and utilizing homogenous populations such as the Finns can improve the statistical power of finding QTL significantly. Also, we concluded from the results of this study that even though genetic effects explain a great proportion of height variance, it is likely that there are tens or even hundreds of genes with small individual effects underlying the genetic architecture of height.

Search For Susceptibility Genes In Schizophrenia

Schizophrenia is a severe mental disorder affecting 0.4-1% of the population worldwide. It is characterized by impairments in the perception of reality and by significant social or occupational dysfunction. The disorder is one of the major contributors to the global burden of diseases. Studies of twins, families, and adopted children point to strong genetic components for schizophrenia, but environmental factors also play a role in the pathogenesis of disease. Molecular genetic studies have identified several potential positional candidate genes. The strongest evidence for putative schizophrenia susceptibility loci relates to the genes encoding dysbindin (DTNBP1) and neuregulin (NRG1), but studies lack impressive consistency in the precise genetic regions and alleles implicated. We have studied the role of three potential candidate genes by genotyping 28 single nucleotide polymorphisms in the DNTBP1, NRG1, and AKT1 genes in a large schizophrenia family sample consisting of 441 families with 865 affected individuals from Finland. Our results do not support a major role for these genes in the pathogenesis of schizophrenia in Finland. We have previously identified a region on chromosome 5q21-34 as a susceptibility locus for schizophrenia in a Finnish family sample. Recently, two studies reported association between the γ-aminobutyric acid type A receptor cluster of genes in this region and one study showed suggestive evidence for association with another regional gene encoding clathrin interactor 1 (CLINT1, also called Epsin 4 and ENTH). To further address the significance of these genes under the linkage peak in the Finnish families, we genotyped SNPs of these genes, and observed statistically significant association of variants between GABRG2 and schizophrenia. Furthermore, these variants also seem to affect the functioning of the working memory. Fetal events and obstetric complications are associated with schizophrenia. Rh incompatibility has been implicated as a risk factor for schizophrenia in several epidemiological studies. We conducted a family-based candidate-gene study that assessed the role of maternal-fetal genotype incompatibility at the RhD locus in schizophrenia. There was significant evidence for an RhD maternal-fetal genotype incompatibility, and the risk ratio was estimated at 2.3. This is the first candidate-gene study to explicitly test for and provide evidence of a maternal-fetal genotype incompatibility mechanism in schizophrenia. In conclusion, in this thesis we found evidence that one GABA receptor subunit, GABRG2, is significantly associated with schizophrenia. Furthermore, it also seems to affect to the functioning of the working memory. In addition, an RhD maternal-fetal genotype incompatibility increases the risk of schizophrenia by two-fold.