Performance of state space and ARIMA models for consumer retail sales forecasting

Forecasting future sales is one of the most important issues that is beyond all strategic and planning decisions in effective operations of retail businesses. For profitable retail businesses, accurate demand forecasting is crucial in organizing and planning production, purchasing, transportation and labor force. Retail sales series belong to a special type of time series that typically contain trend and seasonal patterns, presenting challenges in developing effective forecasting models. This work compares the forecasting performance of state space models and ARIMA models. The forecasting performance is demonstrated through a case study of retail sales of five different categories of women footwear: Boots, Booties, Flats, Sandals and Shoes. On both methodologies the model with the minimum value of Akaike's Information Criteria for the in-sample period was selected from all admissible models for further evaluation in the out-of-sample. Both one-step and multiple-step forecasts were produced. The results show that when an automatic algorithm the overall out-of-sample forecasting performance of state space and ARIMA models evaluated via RMSE, MAE and MAPE is quite similar on both one-step and multi-step forecasts. We also conclude that state space and ARIMA produce coverage probabilities that are close to the nominal rates for both one-step and multi-step forecasts.

Application of [Lambda] to the fourth perturbation theory in calculating the equation of state of rare gas solids and fcc metals

We have calculated the thermodynamic properties of monatomic fcc crystals from the high temperature limit of the Helmholtz free energy. This equation of state included the static and vibrational energy components. The latter contribution was calculated to order A4 of perturbation theory, for a range of crystal volumes, in which a nearest neighbour central force model was used. We have calculated the lattice constant, the coefficient of volume expansion, the specific heat at constant volume and at constant pressure, the adiabatic and the isothermal bulk modulus, and the Gruneisen parameter, for two of the rare gas solids, Xe and Kr, and for the fcc metals Cu, Ag, Au, Al, and Pb. The LennardJones and the Morse potential were each used to represent the atomic interactions for the rare gas solids, and only the Morse potential was used for the fcc metals. The thermodynamic properties obtained from the A4 equation of state with the Lennard-Jones potential, seem to be in reasonable agreement with experiment for temperatures up to about threequarters of the melting temperature. However, for the higher temperatures, the results are less than satisfactory. For Xe and Kr, the thermodynamic properties calculated from the A2 equation of state with the Morse potential, are qualitatively similar to the A 2 results obtained with the Lennard-Jones potential, however, the properties obtained from the A4 equation of state are in good agreement with experiment, since the contribution from the A4 terms seem to be small. The lattice contribution to the thermal properties of the fcc metals was calculated from the A4 equation of state, and these results produced a slight improvement over the properties calculated from the A2 equation of state. In order to compare the calculated specific heats and bulk moduli results with experiment~ the electronic contribution to thermal properties was taken into account~ by using the free electron model. We found that the results varied significantly with the value chosen for the number of free electrons per atom.

On the equation of state and atomic mean square displacement of crystals

We have presented a Green's function method for the calculation of the atomic mean square displacement (MSD) for an anharmonic Hamil toni an . This method effectively sums a whole class of anharmonic contributions to MSD in the perturbation expansion in the high temperature limit. Using this formalism we have calculated the MSD for a nearest neighbour fcc Lennard Jones solid. The results show an improvement over the lowest order perturbation theory results, the difference with Monte Carlo calculations at temperatures close to melting is reduced from 11% to 3%. We also calculated the MSD for the Alkali metals Nat K/ Cs where a sixth neighbour interaction potential derived from the pseudopotential theory was employed in the calculations. The MSD by this method increases by 2.5% to 3.5% over the respective perturbation theory results. The MSD was calculated for Aluminum where different pseudopotential functions and a phenomenological Morse potential were used. The results show that the pseudopotentials provide better agreement with experimental data than the Morse potential. An excellent agreement with experiment over the whole temperature range is achieved with the Harrison modified point-ion pseudopotential with Hubbard-Sham screening function. We have calculated the thermodynamic properties of solid Kr by minimizing the total energy consisting of static and vibrational components, employing different schemes: The quasiharmonic theory (QH), ).2 and).4 perturbation theory, all terms up to 0 ().4) of the improved self consistent phonon theory (ISC), the ring diagrams up to o ().4) (RING), the iteration scheme (ITER) derived from the Greens's function method and a scheme consisting of ITER plus the remaining contributions of 0 ().4) which are not included in ITER which we call E(FULL). We have calculated the lattice constant, the volume expansion, the isothermal and adiabatic bulk modulus, the specific heat at constant volume and at constant pressure, and the Gruneisen parameter from two different potential functions: Lennard-Jones and Aziz. The Aziz potential gives generally a better agreement with experimental data than the LJ potential for the QH, ).2, ).4 and E(FULL) schemes. When only a partial sum of the).4 diagrams is used in the calculations (e.g. RING and ISC) the LJ results are in better agreement with experiment. The iteration scheme brings a definitive improvement over the).2 PT for both potentials.

Special report of New York State Survey on the preservation of the scenery of Niagara Falls ; and fourth annual report on the triangulation of State. For the Year 1879 /

Notes by F. L. Olmsted.

Letter from the Secretary of State to Mr. Monroe, on the subject of the attack on the Chesapeake : the correspondence of Mr. Monroe with the British Government ; and also Mr. Madison's correspondence with Mr. Rose on the same subject. --

March 23, 1808. Printed by order of the House of Representatives.

Message from the President of the United States, transmitting of a report of the Secretary of State, in relation to individuals selected from American prisoners of war, and sent to Great Britain for trial, and also in relation to any orders for retaliation, &c., &c.--

April 16, 1814. Printed by order of the Senate of the United States.

Message from the President of the United States, transmitting a report of the Secretary of State, in obedience to a resolution of the thirteenth inst. "requesting the President to lay before this House such documents relative to the Russian mediation as in his opinion it may not be improper to communicate." --

United States,13th Congress, 2d session, 1813-1814. House. Doc. no. 35.

Message from the President of the United States, transmitting copies of a letter from the British Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs, to the Secretary of State, with the answer of the latter.--

January 6, 1814. Ordered to lie on the table.

Report of the Committee to whom was Referred the Correspondence between Mr. Monroe and Mr. Canning, and between Mr. Madison and Mr. Rose, relative to the attacked of Chesapeake : and also a communication from the President of the United States of the 30 March last, with a letter from Mr. Erskine to the Secretary of State, and a letter from M. Champagny to Gen. Armstrong.--

April 16, 1808. Printed by Order of the Senate.

Advocating recognition and redistribution in poverty alleviation programs in Ghana : an examination of state and NGO programs and policies

Abstract This thesis argues that poverty alleviation strategies and programs carried out by the government and Non Governmental Organizations in Ghana provide affirmative solutions to poverty. This is because, these intervention strategies have been influenced by conventional discourses on poverty that fail to adequately address non-economic issues of poverty such as powerlessness, marginalization and tmder-representation. The study is carried out in a two-pronged manner; first, it analyses state policies and strategies, particularly the Ghana Poverty Reduction Strategy (GPRS), on poverty alleviation and compares these to NGO programs, implemented with funds and support from external donor organizations. Specifically, I focus on how NGOs and the governnlent of Ghana negotiate autonomy and financial dependency with their funding donor-partners and how these affect their policies and programs. Findings from this study reveal that while external influences dominate poverty alleviation policies and strategies, NGOs and the government of Ghana exercise varying degrees of agency in navigating these issues. In particular, NGOs have been able to adapt their programs to the changing needs of donor markets, and are also actively engaged in re-orienting poverty back to the political domain through advocacy campaigns. Overall, rural communities in Ghana depend on charitable NGOs for the provision of essential social services, while the Ghanaian government depends on international donor assistance for its development projects.

Letter from the Secretary of State to Mr. Monroe, on the subject of the attack on the Chesapeake : the correspondence of Mr. Monroe with the British Government; and also Mr. Madison's correspondence with Mr. Rose on the same subject

March 23, 1808. Printed by order of the House of Representatives.

Message from the President of the United States, transmitting a report of the Secretary of State, in obedience to a resolution of the thirteenth inst.

Full Title: 47. Message from the President of the United States, transmitting a report of the Secretary of State, in obedience to a resolution of the thirteenth inst. "requesting the President to lay before this House such documents relative to the Russian mediation as in his opinion it may not be improper to communicate." United States,13th Congress, 2d session, 1813-1814. House. Doc. no. 35. January 18, 1814. Ordered to lie on the table. One letter in French with English translation Printed by Roger C. Weightman

Message from the President of the United States, transmitting copies of a letter from the British Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs, to the Secretary of State, with the answer of the latter

January 6, 1814. Ordered to lie on the table. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- At head of title: [22]. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 13th Congress, 2nd Session, House. Doc. 22. Printed by Roger C. Weightman

A report of the Secretary of State, in relation to individuals selected from American prisoners of war, and sent to Great Britain for trial, and also in relation to any orders for retaliation

Printed by Roger C. Weightman

The American Weekly Messenger; or Register of State Papers, History and Politics for 1813 - 1814 Volume 1

Register of state papers, history, and politics for the years 1813 - 1814.