Using Trauma Injury Severity Score (TRISS) variables to predict length of hospital stay following trauma in New Zealand

Aim – To develop and assess the predictive capabilities of a statistical model that relates routinely collected Trauma Injury Severity Score (TRISS) variables to length of hospital stay (LOS) in survivors of traumatic injury. Method – Retrospective cohort study of adults who sustained a serious traumatic injury, and who survived until discharge from Auckland City, Middlemore, Waikato, or North Shore Hospitals between 2002 and 2006. Cubic-root transformed LOS was analysed using two-level mixed-effects regression models. Results – 1498 eligible patients were identified, 1446 (97%) injured from a blunt mechanism and 52 (3%) from a penetrating mechanism. For blunt mechanism trauma, 1096 (76%) were male, average age was 37 years (range: 15-94 years), and LOS and TRISS score information was available for 1362 patients. Spearman’s correlation and the median absolute prediction error between LOS and the original TRISS model was ρ=0.31 and 10.8 days, respectively, and between LOS and the final multivariable two-level mixed-effects regression model was ρ=0.38 and 6.0 days, respectively. Insufficient data were available for the analysis of penetrating mechanism models. Conclusions – Neither the original TRISS model nor the refined model has sufficient ability to accurately or reliably predict LOS. Additional predictor variables for LOS and other indicators for morbidity need to be considered.

Using a longitudinal model to estimate the effect of methicillin-resistant staphylococcus aureus infection on length of stay in an intensive care unit

Healthcare-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus(MRSA) infection may cause increased hospital stay or, sometimes, death. Quantifying this effect is complicated because it is a time-dependent exposure: infection may prolong hospital stay, while longer stays increase the risk of infection. We overcome these problems by using a multinomial longitudinal model for estimating the daily probability of death and discharge. We then extend the basic model to estimate how the effect of MRSA infection varies over time, and to quantify the number of excess ICU days due to infection. We find that infection decreases the relative risk of discharge (relative risk ratio = 0.68, 95% credible interval: 0.54, 0.82), but is only indirectly associated with increased mortality. An infection on the first day of admission resulted in a mean extra stay of 0.3 days (95% CI: 0.1, 0.5) for a patient with an APACHE II score of 10, and 1.2 days (95% CI: 0.5, 2.0) for a patient with an APACHE II score of 30. The decrease in the relative risk of discharge remained fairly constant with day of MRSA infection, but was slightly stronger closer to the start of infection. These results confirm the importance of MRSA infection in increasing ICU stay, but suggest that previous work may have systematically overestimated the effect size.

Minimising speaker verification utterance length through confidence based early verification decisions

This paper presents a novel approach of estimating the confidence interval of speaker verification scores. This approach is utilised to minimise the utterance lengths required in order to produce a confident verification decision. The confidence estimation method is also extended to address both the problem of high correlation in consecutive frame scores, and robustness with very limited training samples. The proposed technique achieves a drastic reduction in the typical data requirements for producing confident decisions in an automatic speaker verification system. When evaluated on the NIST 2005 SRE, the early verification decision method demonstrates that an average of 5–10 seconds of speech is sufficient to produce verification rates approaching those achieved previously using an average in excess of 100 seconds of speech.

A comparison of different methods to determine diffusion length in dye-sensitized solar cells

A new steady state method for determination of the electron diffusion length in dye-sensitized solar cells (DSCs) is described and illustrated with data obtained using cells containing three different types of electrolyte. The method is based on using near-IR absorbance methods to establish pairs of illumination intensity for which the total number of trapped electrons is the same at open circuit (where all electrons are lost by interfacial electron transfer) as at short circuit (where the majority of electrons are collected at the contact). Electron diffusion length values obtained by this method are compared with values derived by intensity modulated methods and by impedance measurements under illumination. The results indicate that the values of electron diffusion length derived from the steady state measurements are consistently lower than the values obtained by the non steady-state methods. For all three electrolytes used in the study, the electron diffusion length was sufficiently high to guarantee electron collection efficiencies greater than 90%. Measurement of the trap distributions by near-IR absorption confirmed earlier observations of much higher electron trap densities for electrolytes containing Li+ ions. It is suggested that the electron trap distributions may not be intrinsic properties of the TiO2 nanoparticles, but may be associated with electron-ion interactions.

Is length of experience an appropriate criterion to identify level of expertise?

Clinical experience plays an important role in the development of expertise, particularly when coupled with reflection on practice. There is debate, however, regarding the amount of clinical experience that is required to become an expert. Various lengths of practice have been suggested as suitable for determining expertise, ranging from five years to 15 years. This study aimed to investigate the association between length of experience and therapists’ level of expertise in the field of cerebral palsy with upper limb hypertonicity using an empirical procedure named Cochrane–Weiss–Shanteau (CWS). The methodology involved re-analysis of quantitative data collected in two previous studies. In Study 1, 18 experienced occupational therapists made hypothetical clinical decisions related to 110 case vignettes, while in Study 2, 29 therapists considered 60 case vignettes drawn randomly from those used in Study 1. A CWS index was calculated for each participant's case decisions. Then, in each study, Spearman's rho was calculated to identify the correlations between the duration of experience and level of expertise. There was no significant association between these two variables in both studies. These analyses corroborated previous findings of no association between length of experience and judgemental performance. Therefore, length of experience may not be an appropriate criterion for determining level of expertise in relation to cerebral palsy practice.

Developing a hybrid expert system program to aid in the design of plastic injection molding process

Experts in injection molding often refer to previous solutions to find a mold design similar to the current mold and use previous successful molding process parameters with intuitive adjustment and modification as a start for the new molding application. This approach saves a substantial amount of time and cost in experimental based corrective actions which are required in order to reach optimum molding conditions. A Case-Based Reasoning (CBR) System can perform the same task by retrieving a similar case which is applied to the new case from the case library and uses the modification rules to adapt a solution to the new case. Therefore, a CBR System can simulate human e~pertise in injection molding process design. This research is aimed at developing an interactive Hybrid Expert System to reduce expert dependency needed on the production floor. The Hybrid Expert System (HES) is comprised of CBR, flow analysis, post-processor and trouble shooting systems. The HES can provide the first set of operating parameters in order to achieve moldability condition and producing moldings free of stress cracks and warpage. In this work C++ programming language is used to implement the expert system. The Case-Based Reasoning sub-system is constructed to derive the optimum magnitude of process parameters in the cavity. Toward this end the Flow Analysis sub-system is employed to calculate the pressure drop and temperature difference in the feed system to determine the required magnitude of parameters at the nozzle. The Post-Processor is implemented to convert the molding parameters to machine setting parameters. The parameters designed by HES are implemented using the injection molding machine. In the presence of any molding defect, a trouble shooting subsystem can determine which combination of process parameters must be changed iii during the process to deal with possible variations. Constraints in relation to the application of this HES are as follows. - flow length (L) constraint: 40 mm < L < I 00 mm, - flow thickness (Th) constraint: -flow type: - material types: I mm < Th < 4 mm, unidirectional flow, High Impact Polystyrene (HIPS) and Acrylic. In order to test the HES, experiments were conducted and satisfactory results were obtained.

Axial length charges during accommodation in myopes and emmetropes

Purpose: To investigate the influence of accommodation upon axial length (and a comprehensive range of ocular biometric parameters), in populations of young adult myopic and emmetropic subjects. Methods: Forty young adult subjects had ocular biometry measured utilizing a non-contact optical biometer (Lenstar LS 900) based upon the principle of optical low coherence reflectometry, under three different accommodation demands (0 D, 3 D and 6 D). Subjects were classified as emmetropes (n=19) or myopes (n=21) based upon their spherical equivalent refraction (mean emmetropic refraction -0.05 ± 0.27DS and mean myopic refraction -1.82 ± 0.84 DS). Results: Axial length changed significantly with accommodation, with a mean increase of 11.9 ± 12.3 µm and 24.1 ± 22.7 µm for the 3 D and 6 D accommodation stimuli respectively. A significant axial elongation associated with accommodation was still evident even following correction of the axial length data for potential error due to lens thickness change. The mean ‘corrected’ increase in axial length was 5.2 ± 11.2 µm, and 7.4 ± 18.9 µm for the 3 D and 6 D stimuli respectively. There was no significant difference between the myopic and emmetropic populations in terms of the magnitude of change in axial length with accommodation, regardless of whether the data were corrected or not. A number of other ocular biometric parameters, such as anterior chamber depth, lens thickness and vitreous chamber depth also exhibited significant change with accommodation. The myopic and emmetropic populations also exhibited no significant difference in the magnitude of change in these parameters with accommodation. Conclusions: The eye undergoes a significant axial elongation associated with a brief period of accommodation, and the magnitude of this change in eye length increases for larger accommodation demands, however there is no significant difference in the magnitude of eye elongation in myopic and emmetropic subjects.

Sustained convergence, axial length, and corneal topography

Purpose: To investigate the influence of convergence on axial length and corneal topography in young adult subjects.---------- Methods: Fifteen emmetropic young adult subjects with normal binocular vision had axial length and corneal topography measured immediately before and after a 15-min period of base out (BO) prismatic spectacle lens wear. Two different magnitude prismatic spectacles were worn in turn (8 [DELTA] BO and 16 [DELTA] BO), and for both tasks, distance fixation was maintained for the duration of lens wear. Eight subjects returned on a separate day for further testing and had axial length measured before, during, and immediately after a 15-min convergence task.---------- Results: No significant change was found to occur in axial length either during or after the sustained convergence tasks (p > 0.6). Some small but significant changes in corneal topography were found to occur after sustained convergence. The most significant corneal change was observed after the 16 [DELTA] BO prism wear. The corneal refractive power spherocylinder power vector J0 was found to change by a small (mean change of 0.03 D after the 16 [DELTA] BO task) but statistically significant (p = 0.03) amount as a result of the convergence task (indicative of a reduction in with-the-rule corneal astigmatism after convergence). Corneal axial power was found to exhibit a significant flattening in superior regions. Conclusions: Axial length appears largely unchanged by a period of sustained convergence. However, small but significant changes occur in the topography of the cornea after convergence.

Human optical axial length and defocus

Purpose: To investigate the short term influence of imposed monocular defocus upon human optical axial length (the distance from anterior cornea to retinal pigment epithelium) and ocular biometrics. Methods: Twenty-eight young adult subjects (14 myopes and 14 emmetropes) had eye biometrics measured before and then 30 and 60 minutes after exposure to monocular (right eye) defocus. Four different monocular defocus conditions were tested, each on a separate day: control (no defocus), myopic (+3 D defocus), hyperopic (-3 D defocus) and diffuse (0.2 density Bangerter filter) defocus. The fellow eye was optimally corrected (no defocus). Results: Imposed defocus caused small but significant changes in optical axial length (p<0.0001). A significant increase in optical axial length (mean change +8 ± 14 μm, p=0.03) occurred following hyperopic defocus, and a significant reduction in optical axial length (mean change -13 ± 14 μm, p=0.0001) was found following myopic defocus. A small increase in optical axial length was observed following diffuse defocus (mean change +6 ± 13 μm, p=0.053). Choroidal thickness also exhibited some significant changes with certain defocus conditions. No significant difference was found between myopes and emmetropes in the changes in optical axial length or choroidal thickness with defocus. Conclusions: Significant changes in optical axial length occur in human subjects following 60 minutes of monocular defocus. The bi-directional optical axial length changes observed in response to defocus implies the human visual system is capable of detecting the presence and sign of defocus and altering optical axial length to move the retina towards the image plane.

Water drinking influences eye length and IOP in young healthy subjects

This study aimed to investigate the influence of water loading upon intraocular pressure (IOP), ocular pulse amplitude (OPA) and axial length. Twenty one young adult subjects who were classified based on their spherical equivalent refraction as either myopes (n=11), or emmetropes (n=10) participated. Measures of IOP, OPA and ocular biometrics were collected before, and then 10, 15, 25 and 30 minutes following the ingestion of 1000 ml of water. Significant increases in both IOP and OPA were found to occur following water loading (p<0.0001), with peaks in both parameters occurring at 10 minutes after water loading (mean ± SEM increase of 2.24 ± 0.31 mmHg in IOP and 0.46 ± 0.06 mmHg in OPA). Axial length was found to reduce significantly following water loading (p=0.0005), with the largest reduction in axial length evident 10 minutes after water drinking (mean decrease 12 ± 3 µm). A significant time by refractive error group interaction (p=0.048) was found in axial length, indicative of a different pattern of change in eye length following water loading between the myopic and emmetropic populations. The largest difference in axial length change was evident at 10 minutes after water loading with a 17 ± 5 µm reduction in axial length evident in the myopes and only a 6 ± 2 µm reduction in the emmetropes. These findings illustrate significant changes in ocular parameters in young adult subjects following water loading.

Excess length of stay due to central line–associated bloodstream infection in intensive care units in Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico

Objective.To estimate the excess length of stay in an intensive care unit (ICU) due to a central line–associated bloodstream infection (CLABSI), using a multistate model that accounts for the timing of infection. Design.A cohort of 3,560 patients followed up for 36,806 days in ICUs. Setting.Eleven ICUs in 3 Latin American countries: Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico. Patients.All patients admitted to the ICU during a defined time period with a central line in place for more than 24 hours. Results.The average excess length of stay due to a CLABSI increased in 10 of 11 ICUs and varied from −1.23 days to 4.69 days. A reduction in length of stay in Mexico was probably caused by an increased risk of death due to CLABSI, leading to shorter times to death. Adjusting for patient age and Average Severity of Illness Score tended to increase the estimated excess length of stays due to CLABSI. Conclusions.CLABSIs are associated with an excess length of ICU stay. The average excess length of stay varies between ICUs, most likely because of the case‐mix of admissions and differences in the ways that hospitals deal with infections.

G4C2C : enabling citizen engagement at arms' length from government

The recognition that Web 2.0 applications and social media sites will strengthen and improve interaction between governments and citizens has resulted in a global push into new e-democracy or Government 2.0 spaces. These typically follow government-to-citizen (g2c) or citizen-to-citizen (c2c) models, but both these approaches are problematic: g2c is often concerned more with service delivery to citizens as clients, or exists to make a show of ‘listening to the public’ rather than to genuinely source citizen ideas for government policy, while c2c often takes place without direct government participation and therefore cannot ensure that the outcomes of citizen deliberations are accepted into the government policy-making process. Building on recent examples of Australian Government 2.0 initiatives, we suggest a new approach based on government support for citizen-to-citizen engagement, or g4c2c, as a workable compromise, and suggest that public service broadcasters should play a key role in facilitating this model of citizen engagement.

Repeatability of measuring corneal subbasal nerve fiber length in individuals with Type 2 Diabetes

Purpose: To analyze the repeatability of measuring nerve fiber length (NFL) from images of the human corneal subbasal nerve plexus using semiautomated software. Methods: Images were captured from the corneas of 50 subjects with type 2 diabetes mellitus who showed varying severity of neuropathy, using the Heidelberg Retina Tomograph 3 with Rostock Corneal Module. Semiautomated nerve analysis software was independently used by two observers to determine NFL from images of the subbasal nerve plexus. This procedure was undertaken on two occasions, 3 days apart. Results: The intraclass correlation coefficient values were 0.95 (95% confidence intervals: 0.92–0.97) for individual subjects and 0.95 (95% confidence intervals: 0.74–1.00) for observer. Bland-Altman plots of the NFL values indicated a reduced spread of data with lower NFL values. The overall spread of data was less for (a) the observer who was more experienced at analyzing nerve fiber images and (b) the second measurement occasion. Conclusions: Semiautomated measurement of NFL in the subbasal nerve fiber layer is highly repeatable. Repeatability can be enhanced by using more experienced observers. It may be possible to markedly improve repeatability when measuring this anatomic structure using fully automated image analysis software.

Time-dependent analysis of length of stay and mortality due urinary tract infections in ten developing countries : INICC findings

Catheter associated urinary tract infections (CAUTI) are a worldwide problem that may lead to increased patient morbidity, cost and mortality.1e3 The literature is divided on whether there are real effects from CAUTI on length of stay or mortality. Platt4 found the costs and mortality risks to be largeyetGraves et al found the opposite.5 A reviewof the published estimates of the extra length of stay showed results between zero and 30 days.6 The differences in estimates may have been caused by the different epidemiological methods applied. Accurately estimating the effects of CAUTI is difficult because it is a time-dependent exposure. This means that standard statistical techniques, such asmatched case-control studies, tend to overestimate the increased hospital stay and mortality risk due to infection. The aim of the study was to estimate excess length of stay andmortality in an intensive care unit (ICU) due to a CAUTI, using a statistical model that accounts for the timing of infection. Data collected from ICU units in lower and middle income countries were used for this analysis.7,8 There has been little research for these settings, hence the need for this paper.