Accounting for the economic risk, caused by variation in disease severity, in fungicide dose decisions: exemplified for Mycosphaerella graminicola on winter wheat

A method is presented to calculate economic optimum fungicide doses accounting for the risk-aversion of growers responding to variability in disease severity between crops. Simple dose-response and disease-yield loss functions are used to estimate net disease-related costs (fungicide cost, plus disease-induced yield loss) as a function of dose and untreated severity. With fairly general assumptions about the shapes of the probability distribution of disease severity and the other functions involved, we show that a choice of fungicide dose which minimises net costs on average across seasons results in occasional large net costs caused by inadequate control in high disease seasons. This may be unacceptable to a grower with limited capital. A risk-averse grower can choose to reduce the size and frequency of such losses by applying a higher dose as insurance. For example, a grower may decide to accept ‘high loss’ years one year in ten or one year in twenty (i.e. specifying a proportion of years in which disease severity and net costs will be above a specified level). Our analysis shows that taking into account disease severity variation and risk-aversion will usually increase the dose applied by an economically rational grower. The analysis is illustrated with data on septoria tritici leaf blotch of wheat caused by Mycosphaerella graminicola. Observations from untreated field plots at sites across England over three years were used to estimate the probability distribution of disease severities at mid-grain filling. In the absence of a fully reliable disease forecasting scheme, reducing the frequency of ‘high loss’ years requires substantially higher doses to be applied to all crops. Disease resistant cultivars reduce both the optimal dose at all levels of risk and the disease-related costs at all doses.

Property loss potentials for European midlatitude storms in a changing climate

Winter storms of the midlatitudes are an important factor for property losses caused by natural hazards over Europe. The storm series in early 1990 and late 1999 led to enormous economic damages and insured claims. Although significant trends in North Atlantic/European storm activity have not been identified for the last few decades, recent studies provide evidence that under anthropogenic climate change the number of extreme storms could increase, whereas the total number of cyclones may be slightly reduced. In this study, loss potentials derived from an ensemble of climate models using a simple storm damage model under climate change conditions are shown. For the United Kingdom and Germany ensemble-mean storm-related losses are found to increase by up to 37%. Furthermore, the interannual variability of extreme events will increase leading to a higher risk of extreme storm activity and related losses.

Forecasting economic and financial time series with non-linear models

In this paper we discuss the current state-of-the-art in estimating, evaluating, and selecting among non-linear forecasting models for economic and financial time series. We review theoretical and empirical issues, including predictive density, interval and point evaluation and model selection, loss functions, data-mining, and aggregation. In addition, we argue that although the evidence in favor of constructing forecasts using non-linear models is rather sparse, there is reason to be optimistic. However, much remains to be done. Finally, we outline a variety of topics for future research, and discuss a number of areas which have received considerable attention in the recent literature, but where many questions remain.

Characterising loss and damage from climate change

Policy-makers are creating mechanisms to help developing countries cope with loss and damage from climate change, but the negotiations are largely neglecting scientific questions about what the impacts of climate change actually are. Mitigation efforts have failed to prevent the continued increase of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Adaptation is now unlikely to be sufficient to prevent negative impacts from current and future climate change1. In this context, vulnerable nations argue that existing frameworks to promote mitigation and adaptation are inadequate, and have called for a third international mechanism to deal with residual climate change impacts, or “loss and damage”2. In 2013, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) responded to these calls and established the Warsaw International Mechanism (WIM) to address loss and damage from the impacts of climate change in developing countries3. An interim Executive Committee of party representatives has been set up, and is currently drafting a two-year workplan comprising meetings, reports, and expert groups; and aiming to enhance knowledge and understanding of loss and damage, strengthen dialogue among stakeholders, and promote enhanced action and support. Issues identified as priorities for the WIM thus far include: how to deal with non-economic losses, such as loss of life, livelihood, and cultural heritage; and linkages between loss and damage and patterns of migration and displacement2. In all this, one fundamental issue still demands our attention: which losses and damages are relevant to the WIM? What counts as loss and damage from climate change?

Landscape change in central Latvia since the Iron Age: multi-proxy analysis of the vegetation impact of conflict, colonization and economic expansion during the last 2000 years

This study represents the first detailed multi-proxy palaeoenvironmental investigation associated with a Late Iron Age lake-dwelling site in the eastern Baltic. The main objective was to reconstruct the environmental and vegetation dynamics associated with the establishment of the lake-dwelling and land-use during the last 2,000 years. A lacustrine sediment core located adjacent to a Late Iron Age lake-dwelling, medieval castle and Post-medieval manor was sampled in Lake Āraiši. The core was dated using spheroidal fly-ash particles and radiocarbon dating, and analysed in terms of pollen, non-pollen palynomorphs, diatoms, loss-on-ignition, magnetic susceptibility and element geochemistry. Associations between pollen and other proxies were statistically tested. During ad 1–700, the vicinity of Lake Āraiši was covered by forests and human activities were only small-scale with the first appearance of cereal pollen (Triticum and Secale cereale) after ad 400. The most significant changes in vegetation and environment occurred with the establishment of the lake-dwelling around ad 780 when the immediate surroundings of the lake were cleared for agriculture, and within the lake there were increased nutrient levels. The highest accumulation rates of coprophilous fungi coincide with the occupation of the lake-dwelling from ad 780–1050, indicating that parts of the dwelling functioned as byres for livestock. The conquest of tribal lands during the crusades resulted in changes to the ownership, administration and organisation of the land, but our results indicate that the form and type of agriculture and land-use continued much as it had during the preceding Late Iron Age.

COCO-2: a model to assess the economic impact of an accident

COCO-2 is a model for assessing the potential economic costs likely to arise off-site following an accident at a nuclear reactor. COCO-2 builds on work presented in the model COCO-1 developed in 1991 by considering economic effects in more detail, and by including more sources of loss. Of particular note are: the consideration of the directly affected local economy, indirect losses that stem from the directly affected businesses, losses due to changes in tourism consumption, integration with the large body of work on recovery after an accident and a more systematic approach to health costs. The work, where possible, is based on official data sources for reasons of traceability, maintenance and ease of future development. This report describes the methodology and discusses the results of an example calculation. Guidance on how the base economic data can be updated in the future is also provided.

Characterisation of synoptic conditions and cyclones associated with top ranking potential wind loss events over Iberia

Intense extra-tropical cyclones are often associated with strong winds, heavy precipitation and socio-economic impacts. Over southwestern Europe, such storms occur less often, but still cause high economic losses. We characterise the largescale atmospheric conditions and cyclone tracks during the top-100 potential losses over Iberia associated with wind events. Based on 65 years of reanalysis data,events are classified into four groups: (i) cyclone tracks crossing over Iberia on the event day (“Iberia”), (ii) cyclones crossing further north, typically southwest of the British Isles (“North”), (iii) cyclones crossing southwest to northeast near the northwest tip of Iberia (“West”), and (iv) so called “Hybrids”, characterised by a strong pressure gradient over Iberia due to the juxtaposition of low and high pressure centres. Generally, “Iberia” events are the most frequent (31% to 45% for top-100 vs.top-20), while “West” events are rare (10% to 12%). 70% of the events were primarily associated with a cyclone. Multi-decadal variability in the number of events is identified. While the peak in recent years is quite prominent, other comparably stormy periods occurred in the 1960s and 1980s. This study documents that damaging wind storms over Iberia are not rare events, and their frequency of occurrence undergoes strong multi-decadal variability.

The Economic Effects of Ski Resorts on Communities in the State of Maine

Skiing and snowboarding is a fairly expensive activity for participant and one in which the industry as a whole makes handsome profits. In the 2005/06 season, resorts in the Northeast reported an average gross revenue of $18.5 million. (NSAA) With the current weather phenomenon of El Nino, however, resorts in New England especially, have been suffering economically. The gross revenue in New England in the ’05/’06 season was down 4% from the previous year, likely due to the fact the total snowfall declined by 16%. (NSAA) Much of this loss in revenue came during the Christmas to New Years vacation period. In the 2007 season, most mountains were less than half-opened during this peak week and the number of skiers and riders was especially low. With such a large decrease in profits, it is likely that many people will soon be affected (if they have not already been), including local employees. This project, therefore, seeks to analyze the impact that the resorts have on the local economies in order to determine the potential problems the changing snowfall patterns could have on locals’ well-being. It is hypothesized that there will be a strong correlation between the proximity of a community to a resort and the relative economic prosperity of that community; meaning that the ski industry is a pivotal part of their income and livelihood.

An effortless hybrid method to solve economic load dispatch problem in power systems

This paper proposes a new approach and coding scheme for solving economic dispatch problems (ED) in power systems through an effortless hybrid method (EHM). This novel coding scheme can effectively prevent futile searching and also prevents obtaining infeasible solutions through the application of stochastic search methods, consequently dramatically improves search efficiency and solution quality. The dominant constraint of an economic dispatch problem is power balance. The operational constraints, such as generation limitations, ramp rate limits, prohibited operating zones (POZ), network loss are considered for practical operation. Firstly, in the EHM procedure, the output of generator is obtained with a lambda iteration method and without considering POZ and later in a genetic based algorithm this constraint is satisfied. To demonstrate its efficiency, feasibility and fastness, the EHM algorithm was applied to solve constrained ED problems of power systems with 6 and 15 units. The simulation results obtained from the EHM were compared to those achieved from previous literature in terms of solution quality and computational efficiency. Results reveal that the superiority of this method in both aspects of financial and CPU time. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Model for determining flow diameter and economic velocity in water elevating systems

The purpose of this paper was to develop a model for calculating the economical flow diameter and velocity, by obtaining the economical diameter, using Swamee's friction factor equation, by minimizing the total annual cost. The application of the model to a regular supply condition showed that the diameter of the actual condition, 250 mm, compared with the diameter calculated by the mode, at the same tariff as that applied to the property ( ground), 284.1 mm, involved the necessity to generate, transmit, and distribute extra electrical energy, due to the higher load loss caused by the original diameter, approximately 30800 kWh/year. This means that in one year, the consumer would spend R$2,804.00 more on pumping cost alone.

Evaluation of economic impact of external eauivalent models used in reactive OPF studies for interconnected systems

Reactive-optimisation procedures are responsible for the minimisation of online power losses in interconnected systems. These procedures are performed separately at each control centre and involve external network representations. If total losses can be minimised by the implementation of calculated local control actions, the entire system benefits economically, but such control actions generally result in a certain degree of inaccuracy, owing to errors in the modelling of the external system. Since these errors are inevitable, they must at least be maintained within tolerable limits by external-modelling approaches. Care must be taken to avoid unrealistic loss minimisation, as the local-control actions adopted can lead the system to points of operation which will be less economical for the interconnected system as a whole. The evaluation of the economic impact of the external modelling during reactive-optimisation procedures in interconnected systems, in terms of both the amount of losses and constraint violations, becomes important in this context. In the paper, an analytical approach is proposed for such an evaluation. Case studies using data from the Brazilian South-Southeast system (810 buses) have been carried out to compare two different external-modelling approaches, both derived from the equivalent-optimal-power-flow (EOPF) model. Results obtained show that, depending on the external-model representation adopted, the loss representation can be flawed. Results also suggest some modelling features that should be adopted in the EOPF model to enhance the economy of the overall system.

Minimal cross-subsidies approach for loss allocation in distribution networks with open access

Open access philosophy applied by regulatory agencies may lead to a scenario where captive consumers will solely face the responsibility on distribution network's losses even with Independent Energy Producers (also known as Distributed Generation) and Independent Energy Consumers connected to the system. This work proposes the utilization of a loss allocation method in distribution systems where open access is allowed, in which cross-subsidies, that appear due to the influence the generators have over the system losses, are minimized. Thus, guaranteeing to some extent the efficiency and transparency of the economic signals of the market. Results obtained through the Zbus loss allocation method adapted for distribution networks are processed in such a way that the corresponding allocation to the generation buses is divided among the consumer buses, while still considering consumers spatial characteristics. © 2007 IEEE.

Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2010-2011: Internacional integration and macroeconomic policy challenges amid global economic turmoil

Includes bibliography

Fostering economic policy coordination in Latin America: the REDIMA approach to escaping the prisoner's dilemma

Includes bibliography

Review of Caribbean economic and social performance in the 1980's and 1990's

Includes bibliography