877 resultados para decision analysis
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Online learning systems (OLS) have become center stage for corporations and educational institutions as a competitive tool in the knowledge economy. The satisfaction construct has received extensive coverage in information systems literature as an indicator of effectiveness but has been criticized for lack of validity; yet, the value construct has been largely ignored, although it has a long history in psychology, sociology, and behavioral science. The purpose of this dissertation is to investigate the value and satisfaction constructs in the context of OLS, and their perceived by learners relationship for implied effectiveness of OLS. ^ First, a qualitative phase is employed to gather OLS values from learners' focus groups, followed by a pilot phase to refine a proposed instrument, and a main phase to validate the survey. Responses were received from 75 students in four focus groups, 141 in the pilot, and 207 the main survey. Extensive data cleaning and exploratory factor analysis were done to identify factors of learners' perceived value and satisfaction of OLS. Then, Value-Satisfaction grids and the Learners' Value Index of Satisfaction (LeVIS) were developed as benchmarking tools of OLS. Moreover, Multicriteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) techniques were employed to impute value from satisfaction scores in order to reduce survey response time. ^ The results provided four satisfaction and four value factors with high reliability (Cronbach's α). Moreover, value and satisfaction were found to have low linear and nonlinear correlations, indicating that they are two distinct uncorrelated constructs. This is consistent with the literature. Value-Satisfaction grids and the LeVIS index indicated relatively high effectiveness for technology and support characteristics, relatively low effectiveness for professor's characteristics, while course and learner characteristics indicated average effectiveness. ^ The main contributions of this study include identifying, defining, and articulating the relationship between value and satisfaction constructs as assessment of users' implied IS effectiveness, as well as assessing the accuracy of MCDA procedures to predict value scores, thus reducing by half the survey questionnaire size. ^
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This paper discusses how numerically imprecise information can be modelled and how a risk evaluation process can be elaborated by integrating procedures for numerically imprecise probabilities and utilities. More recently, representations and methods for stating and analysing probabilities and values (utilities) with belief distributions over them (second order representations) have been suggested. In this paper, we are discussing some shortcomings in the use of the principle of maximising the expected utility and of utility theory in general, and offer remedies by the introduction of supplementary decision rules based on a concept of risk constraints taking advantage of second-order distributions.
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Wydział Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa
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Currently, the decision analysis in production processes involves a level of detail, in which the problem is subdivided to analyze it in terms of different and conflicting points of view. The multi-criteria analysis has been an important tool that helps assertive decisions related to the production process. This process of analysis has been incorporated into various areas of production engineering, by applying multi-criteria methods in solving the problems of the productive sector. This research presents a statistical study on the use of multi-criteria methods in the areas of Production Engineering, where 935 papers were filtered from 20.663 publications in scientific journals, considering a level of the publication quality based on the impact factor published by the JCR between 2010 and 2015. In this work, the descriptive statistics is used to represent some information and statistical analysis on the volume of applications methods. Relevant results were found with respect to the "amount of advanced methods that are being applied and in which areas related to Production Engineering." This information may provide support to researchers when preparing a multi-criteria application, whereupon it will be possible to check in which issues and how often the other authors have used multi-criteria methods.
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Background: The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), developed by Saaty in the late 1970s, is one of the methods for multi-criteria decision making. The AHP disaggregates a complex decision problem into different hierarchical levels. The weight for each criterion and alternative are judged in pairwise comparisons and priorities are calculated by the Eigenvector method. The slowly increasing application of the AHP was the motivation for this study to explore the current state of its methodology in the healthcare context. Methods: A systematic literature review was conducted by searching the Pubmed and Web of Science databases for articles with the following keywords in their titles or abstracts: "Analytic Hierarchy Process," "Analytical Hierarchy Process," "multi-criteria decision analysis," "multiple criteria decision," "stated preference," and "pairwise comparison." In addition, we developed reporting criteria to indicate whether the authors reported important aspects and evaluated the resulting studies' reporting. Results: The systematic review resulted in 121 articles. The number of studies applying AHP has increased since 2005. Most studies were from Asia (almost 30 %), followed by the US (25.6 %). On average, the studies used 19.64 criteria throughout their hierarchical levels. Furthermore, we restricted a detailed analysis to those articles published within the last 5 years (n = 69). The mean of participants in these studies were 109, whereas we identified major differences in how the surveys were conducted. The evaluation of reporting showed that the mean of reported elements was about 6.75 out of 10. Thus, 12 out of 69 studies reported less than half of the criteria. Conclusion: The AHP has been applied inconsistently in healthcare research. A minority of studies described all the relevant aspects. Thus, the statements in this review may be biased, as they are restricted to the information available in the papers. Hence, further research is required to discover who should be interviewed and how, how inconsistent answers should be dealt with, and how the outcome and stability of the results should be presented. In addition, we need new insights to determine which target group can best handle the challenges of the AHP. © 2015 Schmidt et al.
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This paper demonstrates a connection between data envelopment analysis (DEA) and a non-interactive elicitation method to estimate the weights of objectives for decision-makers in a multiple attribute approach. This connection gives rise to a modified DEA model that allows us to estimate not only efficiency measures but also preference weights by radially projecting each unit onto a linear combination of the elements of the payoff matrix (which is obtained by standard multicriteria methods). For users of multiple attribute decision analysis the basic contribution of this paper is a new interpretation in terms of efficiency of the non-interactive methodology employed to estimate weights in a multicriteria approach. We also propose a modified procedure to calculate an efficient payoff matrix and a procedure to estimate weights through a radial projection rather than a distance minimization. For DEA users, we provide a modified DEA procedure to calculate preference weights and efficiency measures that does not depend on any observations in the dataset. This methodology has been applied to an agricultural case study in Spain.
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Adoption of new cattle management practices by Indonesian smallholders occurs less as a ‘technology transfer’ in the classical sense but rather as a series of conscious decisions by farming households weighing risks and resources as well as matching innovations to livelihood strategies. This paper uncovers the context of decisions and communication of innovations by way of social networks. The research looks at two geographically distinct cases where new cattle management practices have been introduced. We apply the lens of a common sense framework initially introduced by Clifford Geertz. Smallholder decisions are analysed within a socio-cultural context and a particular set of resources, risks and livelihood objectives. We show that the respective value placed on land, cattle and food security is central to adoption of new cattle management techniques. Far from accepting everything novel, smallholders are selective and willing to make changes to their farming system if they do not conflict with livelihood strategies. Innovations are communicated through a range of existing social networks and are either matched to existing livelihood strategies or perceived as stepping-stones out of agriculture.
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La propuesta de crear una nueva línea de investigación basada en temas de Administración en Salud nación de la necesidad de ampliar la fundamentación temática impartida en este tema, dado que hoy en día la Universidad del Rosario cuenta con cuatro especializaciones y una maestría enfocadas en la Administración en Salud. El proyecto inicia con una fundamentación teórica basada en temáticas impartidas en grandes escuelas de negocios a nivel mundial que tengan en sus enfoques la Administración en Salud. Esto permitió recolectar gran cantidad de información que serviría de base para posteriormente generar la propuesta de investigación. Seguido de esto se realizó el análisis de los trabajos de grado realizado tanto en la maestría como en las Especializaciones de la Universidad del Rosario enfocadas en este tema, generando así revisión temática de estos estudios y sus respectivos aportes. Esto con el fin de poder realizar una comparación temática entre las escuelas de negocios del mundo y los estudio impartidos por la Universidad del Rosario, lo cual abriría paso a generar una lista temática para la propuesta de la línea de investigación. Una vez realizada la fundamentación teórica y la revisión de los trabajos de grado tanto de Maestría como de Especialización, se definió la propuesta de la línea de investigación la cual se estableció en dos partes fundamentales: Concepción de la línea de investigación y construcción de la línea de investigación, en donde se definió un nombre, un objetivo, una jerarquía, una propuesta temáticas, unos lineamientos generales y se definieron unos entregables a realizar por parte de los integrantes de la línea de investigación. Concluyendo así la viabilidad de la creación de la línea de investigación en la Universidad del Rosario, dada la necesidad requerida
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This paper presents results of research related to multicriteria decision making under information uncertainty. The Bell-man-Zadeh approach to decision making in a fuzzy environment is utilized for analyzing multicriteria optimization models (< X, M > models) under deterministic information. Its application conforms to the principle of guaranteed result and provides constructive lines in obtaining harmonious solutions on the basis of analyzing associated maxmin problems. This circumstance permits one to generalize the classic approach to considering the uncertainty of quantitative information (based on constructing and analyzing payoff matrices reflecting effects which can be obtained for different combinations of solution alternatives and the so-called states of nature) in monocriteria decision making to multicriteria problems. Considering that the uncertainty of information can produce considerable decision uncertainty regions, the resolving capacity of this generalization does not always permit one to obtain unique solutions. Taking this into account, a proposed general scheme of multicriteria decision making under information uncertainty also includes the construction and analysis of the so-called < X, R > models (which contain fuzzy preference relations as criteria of optimality) as a means for the subsequent contraction of the decision uncertainty regions. The paper results are of a universal character and are illustrated by a simple example. (c) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Thesis submitted to the Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Environmental Engineering
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Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores
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Based on the report for the unit “Métodos Interactivos de Participação e Decisão A” (Interactive methods of participation and decision A), coordinated by Prof. Lia Maldonado Teles de Vasconcelos and Prof. Nuno Miguel Ribeiro Videira Costa. This unit was provided for the PhD Program in Technology Assessment in 2015/2016.