Financing constraints, irreversibility and investment dynamics

We develop a model of an industry with many heterogeneous firms that face both financingconstraints and irreversibility constraints. The financing constraint implies that firmscannot borrow unless the debt is secured by collateral; the irreversibility constraint thatthey can only sell their fixed capital by selling their business. We use this model to examinethe cyclical behavior of aggregate fixed investment, variable capital investment, and outputin the presence of persistent idiosyncratic and aggregate shocks. Our model yields threemain results. First, the effect of the irreversibility constraint on fixed capital investmentis reinforced by the financing constraint. Second, the effect of the financing constraint onvariable capital investment is reinforced by the irreversibility constraint. Finally, the interactionbetween the two constraints is key for explaining why input inventories and materialdeliveries of US manufacturing firms are so volatile and procyclical, and also why they arehighly asymmetrical over the business cycle.

Japan's lost decade: Does money have a role?

We study the contribution of the stock of money to the macroeconomic outcomesof the 1990s in Japan using a small scale structural model. Likelihood-basedestimates of the parameters are provided and time stabilities of the structural relationshipsanalyzed. Real balances are statistically important for output and inflationfluctuations and their role has changed over time. Models which give moneyno role give a distorted representation of the sources of cyclical fluctuations. Thesevere stagnation and the long deflation are driven by different causes.

Are these classical business cycles?

The aim of this paper is to test formally the classical business cyclehypothesis, using data from industrialized countries for the timeperiod since 1960. The hypothesis is characterized by the view that the cyclical structure in GDP is concentrated in the investment series: fixed investment has typically a long cycle, while the cycle in inventory investment is shorter. To check the robustness of our results, we subject the data for 15 OECD countries to a variety of detrending techniques. While the hypothesis is not confirmed uniformly for all countries, there is a considerably high number for which the data display the predicted pattern. None of the countries shows a pattern which can be interpreted as a clear rejection of the classical hypothesis.

Endogenous policy leads to inefficient risk sharing

We analyze risk sharing and fiscal spending in a two-region model withcomplete markets. Fiscal policy determines tax rates for each state ofnature. When fiscal policy is decentralized, it can be used to affect prices of securities. To manipulate prices to their beneffit, regionschoose pro-cyclical fiscal spending. This leads to incomplete risk sharing,despite the existence of complete markets and the absence of aggregaterisk. When a fiscal union centralizes fiscal policy, securities pricescan no longer be manipulated and complete risk sharing ensues. If regionsare homogeneous, median income residents of both regions prefer the fiscalunion. If they are heterogeneous, the median resident of the rich regionprefers the decentralized setting.

Stabilization versus insurance: Welfare effects of procyclical taxation under incomplete markets

We construct and calibrate a general equilibrium business cycle model with unemployment and precautionary saving. We compute the cost of business cycles and locate the optimum in a set of simple cyclical fiscal policies. Our economy exhibits productivity shocks, giving firms an incentive to hire more when productivity is high. However, business cycles make workers' income riskier, both by increasing the unconditional probability of unusuallylong unemployment spells, and by making wages more variable, and therefore they decrease social welfare by around one-fourth or one-third of 1% of consumption. Optimal fiscal policy offsets the cycle, holding unemployment benefits constant but varying the tax rate procyclically to smooth hiring. By running a deficit of 4% to 5% of output in recessions, the government eliminates half the variation in the unemployment rate, most of the variation in workers'aggregate consumption, and most of the welfare cost of business cycles.

Business cycles, unemployment insurance and the calibration of matching models

This paper theoretically and empirically documents a puzzle that arises when an RBC economy with a job matching function is used to model unemployment. The standard model can generate sufficiently large cyclical fluctuations in unemployment, or a sufficiently small response of unemployment to labor market policies, but it cannot do both. Variable search and separation, finite UI benefit duration, efficiency wages, and capital all fail to resolve this puzzle. However, either sticky wages or match-specific productivity shocks can improve the model's performance by making the firm's flow of surplus more procyclical, which makes hiring more procyclical too.

Does it cost to be virtuous? The macroeconomic effects of fiscal constraints

We study whether and how fiscal restrictions alter the business cycle features of macrovariables for a sample of 48 US states. We also examine the typical transmission properties of fiscal disturbances and the implied fiscal rules of states with different fiscal restrictions. Fiscal constraints are characterized with a number of indicators. There are similarities in second moments of macrovariables and in the transmission properties of fiscal shocks across states with different fiscal constraints. The cyclical response of expenditure differs in size and sometimes in sign, but heterogeneity within groups makes point estimates statistically insignificant. Creative budget accounting is responsible for the pattern. Implications for the design of fiscal rules and the reform of the Stability and Growth Pact are discussed.

The transmission of US shocks to Latin America

I study whether and how US shocks are transmitted to eight Latin American countries. US shocks are identified using sign restrictions and treated as exogenous with respect to Latin American economies. Posterior estimates for individual and average effects are constructed. US monetary shocks produce significant fluctuations in Latin America, but real demand and supply shocks do not. Floaters and currency boarders display similar output but different inflation and interest rate responses. The financial channel plays a crucial role in the transmission. US disturbances explain important portions of the variability of LatinAmerican macrovariables, producing continental cyclical fluctuations and, in two episodes, destabilizing nominal exchange rate effects. Policy implications are discussed.

Gross capital flows: Dynamics and crises

This paper analyzes the behavior of international capital flows by foreign and domestic agents,dubbed gross capital flows, over the business cycle and during financial crises. We show thatgross capital flows are very large and volatile, especially relative to net capital flows. Whenforeigners invest in a country, domestic agents invest abroad, and vice versa. Gross capital flowsare also pro-cyclical. During expansions, foreigners invest more domestically and domesticagents invest more abroad. During crises, total gross flows collapse and there is a retrenchmentin both inflows by foreigners and outflows by domestic agents. These patterns hold for differenttypes of capital flows and crises. This evidence sheds light on the sources of fluctuations drivingcapital flows and helps discriminate among existing theories. Our findings seem consistent withcrises affecting domestic and foreign agents asymmetrically, as would be the case under thepresence of sovereign risk or asymmetric information.

The elusive costs and the immaterial gains of fiscal contraints

We study whether and how fiscal restrictions alter the business cycle features macrovariables for a sample of 48 US states. We also examine the 'typical' transmission properties of fiscal disturbances and the implied fiscal rules of states with different fiscal restrictions. Fiscal constraints are characterized with a number of indicators. There are similarities in second moments of macrovariables and in the transmission properties of fiscal shocks across states with different fiscal constraints. The cyclical response of expenditure differs in size and sometimes in sign, but heterogeneity within groups makes point estimates statistically insignificant. Creative budget accounting isresponsible for the pattern. Implications for the design of fiscal rules and thereform of the Stability and Growth Pact are discussed.

"Vinci Cosmetics" Fabricación y comercialización de productos cosméticos

Contexto: La idea principal es la creación de una empresa para la fabricación y comercialización de productos cosméticos de alta gama. A pesar del contexto de crisis económica en el que estamos envueltos estos últimos años y del que no parece que acabamos de salir, el sector de la cosmética está resistiendo la situación de forma envidiable. De la crisis, como dicen los economistas, “se saldrá y se volverá, todo es cíclico” y viendo la fortaleza que éste sector está mostrando unido a la necesidad de que nuestra economía abandone sectores muy deteriorados y sin una previsión positiva de futuro, la cosmética se postula con un futuro prometedor dentro del contexto económico español y europeo. “Vinci Cosmetics” es el nombre inicialmente pensado para que la nueva compañía inicie su andadura. Nombre con tintes latinos de la lejana época del imperio romano como homenaje a la rica herencia histórica de la ciudad del autor del proyecto - Tarragona. La cultura por cuidarse y sentirse bien, muy arraigada en la mentalidad latina y mediterránea, es un factor cultural clave para el desarrollo y futura evolución de esta industria. El slogan de la empresa, “Dieta Mediterránea para tu piel”, clarifica en buena medida la idea a desarrollar y los objetivos pretendidos por la estrategia empresarial. Objetivos: El objetivo esencial del TFC es elaborar un estudio detallado para la creación de una empresa de fabricación y comercialización de productos cosméticos de alta gama que abarque el management y la gestión por procesos de la empresa, la función de marketing, el tipo de operaciones y procesos a realizar, la gestión del factor humano y el presupuesto necesario para cubrir este ambicioso proyecto. En detalle, un completo plan de empresa que marque las directrices de la organización industrial que se pretende crear compuesto a su vez por cinco planes: plan de gerencia, plan de marketing, plan de operaciones, plan de recursos humanos y plan económico – financiero. Procedimientos: El proyecto tiene un alto componente de estudio de mercados y de marketing pero pretende también abarcar el management, los procesos de operación, el factor humano y el aspecto económico y financiero de las inversiones y presupuesto necesario. El estudio inicial centrará su esfuerzo en un análisis del mercado de la península ibérica, y, en función del avance y del progreso esperado por la empresa, la compañía podría extender su campo de acción a Europa aunque no antes de un medio plazo. “Vinci Cosmetics” ha adoptado referenciales de sistemas de gestión integrados en toda la organización. Así tenemos principalmente, por un lado, la norma internacional ISO 9001:2008 y, por otro, el Modelo EFQM de Excelencia en la gestión; ambos plasmados a partir de un enfoque basado en procesos que nos garantiza el control continuo y la gestión excelente. Conclusiones: Tras evaluar la situación actual del mercado de la cosmética, las previsiones futuras de éste y las necesidades que una organización industrial necesita, se puede crear - con plenas garantías de éxito como organización empresarial y desde el punto de vista económico - una empresa de cosméticos de alta gama para cubrir las necesidades de una parte de mercado que lo requiere.

The promoter of the gene encoding 3',5'-cyclic adenosine monophosphate (cAMP) response element binding protein contains cAMP response elements: evidence for positive autoregulation of gene transcription.

The transcriptional transactivational activities of the phosphoprotein cAMP-response element-binding protein (CREB) are activated by the cAMP-dependent protein kinase A signaling pathway. Dimers of CREB bind to the palindromic DNA element 5'-TGACGTCA-3' (or similar motifs) called cAMP-responsive enhancers (CREs) found in the control regions of many genes, and activate transcription in response to phosphorylation of CREB by protein kinase A. Earlier we reported on the cyclical expression of the CREB gene in the Sertoli cells of the rat testis that occurred concomitant with the FSH-induced rise in cellular cAMP levels and suggested that transcription of the CREB gene may be autoregulated by cAMP-dependent transcriptional proteins. We now report the structure of the 5'-flanking sequence of the human CREB gene containing promoter activity. The promoter has a high content of guanosines and cytosines and lacks canonical TATA and CCAAT boxes typically found in the promoters of genes in eukaryotes. Notably, the promoter contains three CREs and transcriptional activities of a promoter-luciferase reporter plasmid transfected to placental JEG-3 cells are increased 3- to 5-fold over basal activities in response to either cAMP or 12-O-tetradecanoyl phorbol-14-acetate, and give 6- to 7-fold responses when both agents are added. The CREs bind recombinant CREB and endogenous CREB or CREB-like proteins contained in placental JEG-3 cells and also confer cAMP-inducible transcriptional activation to a heterologous minimal promoter. Our studies suggest that the expression of the CREB gene is positively autoregulated in trans.

Spectral analysis of the luteinizing hormone in the blood samples

Generally, medicine books are concentrated almost exclusively in explaining methodology that analyzes fixed measures, measures done in a certain moment, nevertheless the evolution of the measurement and correct interpretation of the missed values are very important and sometimes can give the key information of the results obtained. Thus, the analysis of the temporary series and spectral analysis or analysis of the time series in the dominion of frequencies can be regarded as an appropriate tool for this kind of studies.In this work the frequency of the pulsating secretion of luteinizing hormone LH (thatregulates the fertile life of women) were analyzed in order to determine the existence of the significant frequencies obtained by analysis of Fourier. Detection of the frequencies, with which the pulsating secretion of the LH takes place, is a quite difficult question due topresence of the random errors in measures and samplings, i.e. that pulsating secretions of small amplitude are not detected and disregarded. In physiology it is accepted that cyclical patterns in the secretion of the LH exist and in the results of this research confirm this pattern and determine its frequency presented in the corresponded periodograms to each of studied cycle. The obtained results can be used as key pattern for future sampling frequencies in order to ¿catch¿ the significant picks of the luteinizing hormone and reflect on time forproductivity treatment of women.

GDP and life expectancy in Italy and Spain over the long-run (1861-2008): insights from a timeseries approach

The article presents and discusses long-run series of per capita GDP and life expectancy for Italy and Spain (1861-2008). After refining the available estimates in order to make them comparable and with the avail of the most up-to-date researches, the main changes in the international economy and in technological and sociobiological regimes are used as analytical frameworks to re-assess the performances of the two countries; then structural breaks are searched for and Granger causality between the two variables is investigated. The long-run convergence notwithstanding, significant cyclical differences between the two countries can be detected: Spain began to modernize later in GDP, with higher volatility in life expectancy until recent decades; by contrast, Italy showed a more stable pattern of life expectancy, following early breaks in per capita GDP, but also a negative GDP break in the last decades. Our series confirm that, whereas at the early stages of development differences in GDP tend to mirror those in life expectancy, this is no longer true at later stages of development, when, if any, there seems to be a negative correlation between GDP and life expectancy: this finding is in line with the thesis of a non-monotonic relation between life expectancy and GDP and is supported by tests of Granger causality.

Thermostatistical description of small systems in nonequilibrium conditions: Energy conversion and harvesting

Hysteresis cycles are very important features of energy conversion and harvesting devices, such as batteries. The efficiency of these may be strongly affected by the physical size of the system. Here, we show that in systems which are small enough, the existence of physical boundaries which produce nonhomogeneities of the interaction potential gives rise to inflections and barriers in the associated free energy. This in turn brings on irreversible processes which can be triggered under suitable external conditions imposed by a heat bath. As an example, by controlling the temperature, the state of a small system may be impelled to oscillate between two different structural configurations or aggregation states avoiding equilibrium coexistence and therefore dissipating energy. This cyclical behavior associated with a hysteresis cycle may be prototypical of energy conversion, storage, or generating nanodevices, as exemplified by Li-ion insertion batteries.