Forecasting US bond default ratings allowing for previous and initial state dependence in an ordered probit model

In this paper we investigate the ability of a number of different ordered probit models to predict ratings based on firm-specific data on business and financial risks. We investigate models based on momentum, drift and ageing and compare them against alternatives that take into account the initial rating of the firm and its previous actual rating. Using data on US bond issuing firms rated by Fitch over the years 2000 to 2007 we compare the performance of these models in predicting the rating in-sample and out-of-sample using root mean squared errors, Diebold-Mariano tests of forecast performance and contingency tables. We conclude that initial and previous states have a substantial influence on rating prediction.

The Adoption of agricultural credit cooperativism in Spain (1890-1935) : solidarity from below?

The spread of agrarian credit cooperativism in Spain (1890-1934) was done under a variety of ideological and economic orientations. This article focuses on the construction of a few tools and indicators to explain the characteristics of agricultural credit cooperatives. An analysis of financial operations of rural savings banks is related with socio-political aspects that influenced their development; This analysis helps us to explain the relative success of German credit cooperative models adopted in the context of Spanish agriculture, as happened on European periphery.

Leading indicator properties of US high-yield credit spreads

In this paper we examine the out-of-sample forecast performance of high-yield credit spreads regarding real-time and revised data on employment and industrial production in the US. We evaluate models using both a point forecast and a probability forecast exercise. Our main findings suggest the use of few factors obtained by pooling information from a number of sector-specific high-yield credit spreads. This can be justified by observing that, especially for employment, there is a gain from using a principal components model fitted to high-yield credit spreads compared to the prediction produced by benchmarks, such as an AR, and ARDL models that use either the term spread or the aggregate high-yield spread as exogenous regressor. Moreover, forecasts based on real-time data are generally comparable to forecasts based on revised data. JEL Classification: C22; C53; E32 Keywords: Credit spreads; Principal components; Forecasting; Real-time data.

Pecuniary Externality through Credit Constraints: Two Examples without Uncertainty

This paper is a contribution to the growing literature on constrained inefficiencies in economies with financial frictions. The purpose is to present two simple examples, inspired by the stochastic models in Gersbach-Rochet (2012) and Lorenzoni (2008), of deterministic environments in which such inefficiencies arise through credit constraints. Common to both examples is a pecuniary externality, which operates through an asset price. In the second example, a simple transfer between two groups of agents can bring about a Pareto improvement. In a first best economy, there are no pecuniary externalities because marginal productivities are equalised. But when agents face credit constraints, there is a wedge between their marginal productivities and those of the non-credit-constrained agents. The wedge is the source of the pecuniary externality: economies with these kinds of imperfections in credit markets are not second-best efficient. This is akin to the constrained inefficiency of an economy with incomplete markets, as in Geanakoplos and Polemarchakis (1986).

Haar wavelets-based approach for quantifying credit portfolio losses

This paper proposes a new methodology to compute Value at Risk (VaR) for quantifying losses in credit portfolios. We approximate the cumulative distribution of the loss function by a finite combination of Haar wavelet basis functions and calculate the coefficients of the approximation by inverting its Laplace transform. The Wavelet Approximation (WA) method is specially suitable for non-smooth distributions, often arising in small or concentrated portfolios, when the hypothesis of the Basel II formulas are violated. To test the methodology we consider the Vasicek one-factor portfolio credit loss model as our model framework. WA is an accurate, robust and fast method, allowing to estimate VaR much more quickly than with a Monte Carlo (MC) method at the same level of accuracy and reliability.

Credit risk contributions under the Vasicek one-factor model: a fast wavelet expansion approximation

To measure the contribution of individual transactions inside the total risk of a credit portfolio is a major issue in financial institutions. VaR Contributions (VaRC) and Expected Shortfall Contributions (ESC) have become two popular ways of quantifying the risks. However, the usual Monte Carlo (MC) approach is known to be a very time consuming method for computing these risk contributions. In this paper we consider the Wavelet Approximation (WA) method for Value at Risk (VaR) computation presented in [Mas10] in order to calculate the Expected Shortfall (ES) and the risk contributions under the Vasicek one-factor model framework. We decompose the VaR and the ES as a sum of sensitivities representing the marginal impact on the total portfolio risk. Moreover, we present technical improvements in the Wavelet Approximation (WA) that considerably reduce the computational effort in the approximation while, at the same time, the accuracy increases.

Paper money and national distress: William Huskisson and the early theories of credit, speculation and crises

This paper examines the explanation of commercial crises offered by William Huskisson in 1810 in the wake of the debate on the Bullion Report. Huskisson argued that the suspension of convertibility made it possible to extend issues of paper currency beyond its proper limits. Such an expansion, being in the interest of all parties concerned, would actually take place and stimulate excessive speculations, which would eventually prove unsustainable and bring generalized ruin and distress. Although some elements of this explanations were not new (having been anticipated by writers sucha as James Currie in 1793, William Roscoe in 1793, William Anderson in 1797 and an anonymous in 1796), Huskisson's explanation is more systematic and better organized, and his emphasis on the endogenous character of the crisis and on the instability of the dynamics of trade and credit makes it an interesting foreshadower of the theories of crises that were advanced half a century later.

Credit consulting : anàlisi de l'amortització anticipada de crèdits mitjançant el VAD

El projecte que he dut a terme és la implementació d'una pàgina web orientada a aquells usuaris que necessiten assessorament davant d'un crèdit bancari que ja posseeixen o que vulguin realitzar. Aquesta web financera té com a objectiu donar un cop de mà a tota aquella gent que té demanat un crèdit bancari a interès fixe i vol saber en un moment determinat si és convenient o no amortitzar anticipadament tenint en compte variables com: interès del mercat, penalització deguda a l'anticipació, la fiscalitat en el cas de les empreses, anys que queden per acabar de pagar el crèdit, sistema d'amortització financera utilitzat, etc.

A new rating scale to evaluate the potential benefit of therapeutic drug monitoring

Aims: Therapeutic Drug Monitoring (TDM) is an established tool to optimize thepharmacotherapy with immunosupressants, antibiotics, antiretroviral agents, anticonvulsantsand psychotropic drugs. The TDM expert group of the Association ofNeuropsychopharmacolgy and Pharmacopsychiatry recommended clinical guidelinesfor TDM of psychotropic drugs in 2004 and in 2011. They allocate 4 levelsof recommendation based on studies reporting plasma concentrations and clinicaloutcomes. To evaluate the additional benefit for drugs without direct evidence forTDM and to verify the recommendation levels of the expert group the authorsbuilt a new rating scale. Methods: This rating scale included 28 items and wasdivided in 5 categories: Efficacy, toxicity, pharmacokinetics, patient characteristicsand cost effectiveness. A literature search was performed for 10 antidepressants,10 antipsychotics, 8 drugs used in the treatment of substance related disordersand lithium, thereafter, a comparison with the assessment of the TDMexpert group was carried out. Results: The antidepressants as well as the antipsychoticsshowed a high and significant correlation with the recommendations inthe consensus guidelines. However, meanderings could be detected for the drugsused in the therapy of substance related disorders, for which TDM is mostly notestablished yet. The result of the antidepressants and antipsychotics permits aclassification of the reachable points; upper 13 - TDM strongly recommended10 to 13 - TDM recommended, 8 to 10 - TDM useful and below 8 - TDMpotentially useful. Conclusion: These results suggest this rating scale is sensitiveto detect the appropriateness of TDM for drug treatment. For those drugs TDM isnot established a more objective estimation is possible, thus the scoring helps tofocus on the most likely drugs to require TDM.

Iowa Department of Commerce - Credit Union Division, Agency Performance Plan

Annual Report, Agency Performance Plan

Your Credit Rights

A brouchure by the Iowa Commission on the Status of Women

Conflicto de intereses: agencias de rating, reguladores, países y empresas

Les agencies de qualificació de riscos son una peça fonamental en el engranatge del sistema financer internacional. Arreu de la crisi financera es detecten conflictes d’interès entre aquestes i la resta de agents econòmics, generat per un canvi en el model de cobro. El document explica com s’ha generat aquest problema, la resposta del mercat i de les pròpies agencies de rating i exposa també les noves propostes regulatòries per a corregir-lo.

Adaptação para a língua portuguesa e validação do Lunney Scoring Method for Rating Accuracy of Nursing Diagnoses

O Lunney Scoring Method for Rating Accuracy of Nursing Diagnoses (LSM) é uma escala de diferencial semântico que foi desenvolvida por Lunney para estimar a acurácia dos diagnósticos de enfermagem. O objetivo deste estudo foi adaptar o LSM para a língua portuguesa e avaliar as sua propriedades psicométricas. A escala original foi traduzida para o português, revertida para o inglês e as duas versões em inglês foram comparadas para ajustar a versão em português que passou a ser denominada Escala de Acurácia de Diagnóstico de Enfermagem de Lunney - EADE. Quatro enfermeiras foram orientadas sobre a EADE e a aplicaram em 159 diagnósticos formulados para 26 pacientes de três estudos primários com base nos registros de entrevista e exame físico de cada paciente. Os índices Kappa de Cohen mostraram ausência de concordância entre as avaliadoras, o que indica que o instrumento adaptado não tem confiabilidade satisfatória. Em virtude desse resultado, não foi realizada estimativa de validade.

Credit Union Division Activities, March 2004, Issue 10

Newsletter for Iowa Credit Union Division