Bayesian Networks and the Value of the Evidence for the Forensic Two-Trace Transfer Problem

Forensic scientists face increasingly complex inference problems for evaluating likelihood ratios (LRs) for an appropriate pair of propositions. Up to now, scientists and statisticians have derived LR formulae using an algebraic approach. However, this approach reaches its limits when addressing cases with an increasing number of variables and dependence relationships between these variables. In this study, we suggest using a graphical approach, based on the construction of Bayesian networks (BNs). We first construct a BN that captures the problem, and then deduce the expression for calculating the LR from this model to compare it with existing LR formulae. We illustrate this idea by applying it to the evaluation of an activity level LR in the context of the two-trace transfer problem. Our approach allows us to relax assumptions made in previous LR developments, produce a new LR formula for the two-trace transfer problem and generalize this scenario to n traces.

On the convergence of EM-like algorithms for image segmentation using Markov random fields.

Inference of Markov random field images segmentation models is usually performed using iterative methods which adapt the well-known expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm for independent mixture models. However, some of these adaptations are ad hoc and may turn out numerically unstable. In this paper, we review three EM-like variants for Markov random field segmentation and compare their convergence properties both at the theoretical and practical levels. We specifically advocate a numerical scheme involving asynchronous voxel updating, for which general convergence results can be established. Our experiments on brain tissue classification in magnetic resonance images provide evidence that this algorithm may achieve significantly faster convergence than its competitors while yielding at least as good segmentation results.

Joint physical-MAC layer design of the broadcast channel protocol in adhoc networks

Broadcast transmission mode in ad hoc networks is critical to manage multihop routing or providing medium accesscontrol (MAC)-layer fairness. In this paper, it is shown that ahigher capacity to exchange information among neighbors may beobtained through a physical-MAC cross-layer design of the broadcastprotocol exploiting signal separation principles. Coherentdetection and separation of contending nodes is possible throughtraining sequences which are selected at random from a reducedset. Guidelines for the design of this set are derived for a lowimpact on the network performance and the receiver complexity.

Input diffusion and the evolution of production networks

What determines which inputs are initially considered and eventually adopted in the productionof new or improved goods? Why are some inputs much more prominent than others? We modelthe evolution of input linkages as a process where new producers first search for potentially usefulinputs and then decide which ones to adopt. A new product initially draws a set of 'essentialsuppliers'. The search stage is then confined to the network neighborhood of the latter, i.e., to theinputs used by the essential suppliers. The adoption decision is driven by a tradeoff between thebenefits accruing from input variety and the costs of input adoption. This has important implicationsfor the number of forward linkages that a product (input variety) develops over time. Inputdiffusion is fostered by network centrality ? an input that is initially represented in many networkneighborhoods is subsequently more likely to be adopted. This mechanism also delivers a powerlaw distribution of forward linkages. Our predictions continue to hold when varieties are aggregatedinto sectors. We can thus test them, using detailed sectoral US input-output tables. We showthat initial network proximity of a sector in 1967 significantly increases the likelihood of adoptionthroughout the subsequent four decades. The same is true for rapid productivity growth in aninput-producing sector. Our empirical results highlight two conditions for new products to becomecentral nodes: initial network proximity to prospective adopters, and technological progress thatreduces their relative price. Semiconductors met both conditions.

The Possibilities of IP Networks in Strategic Partnership Development

This study focuses on the status of using the Internet in partnership development. The aim is to find out howthe parties in partnership can benefit from the available data networks (the Internet, Intranet and Extranet). The study also explains what the typical practices at the moment are and what features might be exploitable in the future. The research problem is to find out whether there are any possibilities to utilize the web more than is done at the moment. This study is a preliminary study for a more extensive study on the topic 'Information Technology in Business Relationships'.

Using narratives to study the impact of social networks on the educational paths of immigrant students

This paper presents the qualitative data collection process aimed at the study of the impactsocial relations and networks have on educational paths of immigrant students. In theframework of a R & D longitudinal study funded by the Ministry of Science and Innovation(2012-2014), the research team tracked the path of 87 immigrant students, from whom only 17successfully achieved the transition through the first and second year of Post-16 Education.A vast range of literature notes that relationships are an important part of migration process andsocial integration analysis, as well as school history in terms of success or failure. Through thefieldwork researchers collect the personal networks of all immigrant students from 3 highschools who were at that time attending last course of compulsory school. The network structureinfluences their social capital and therefore determines the resources, goods and types of supportindividuals can access. All these aspects are influential elements in the configuration anddevelopment of academic trajectories of immigrant students.At the end of the second year of Post-16 Education (two years later), the study captures personalnetworks of these students again, analyses and discusses their evolution and influence on theirpaths through qualitative interviews. Such interviews facilitated the discussion of theirrelationships while providing interesting narratives that are presented in the text. In order to do so, the biographical interpretive narrative method of interviewing is implemented.

Using narratives to study the impact of social networks on the educational paths of immigrant students

This paper presents the qualitative data collection process aimed at the study of the impactsocial relations and networks have on educational paths of immigrant students. In theframework of a R & D longitudinal study funded by the Ministry of Science and Innovation(2012-2014), the research team tracked the path of 87 immigrant students, from whom only 17successfully achieved the transition through the first and second year of Post-16 Education.A vast range of literature notes that relationships are an important part of migration process andsocial integration analysis, as well as school history in terms of success or failure. Through thefieldwork researchers collect the personal networks of all immigrant students from 3 highschools who were at that time attending last course of compulsory school. The network structureinfluences their social capital and therefore determines the resources, goods and types of supportindividuals can access. All these aspects are influential elements in the configuration anddevelopment of academic trajectories of immigrant students.At the end of the second year of Post-16 Education (two years later), the study captures personalnetworks of these students again, analyses and discusses their evolution and influence on theirpaths through qualitative interviews. Such interviews facilitated the discussion of theirrelationships while providing interesting narratives that are presented in the text. In order to do so, the biographical interpretive narrative method of interviewing is implemented.

Business potential evaluation of wireless local area networks: Teleoperator’s view

The objective of the thesis was to evaluate business potential of wireless local area networks (WLAN, Wireless LAN). At first, the scope of business potential evaluation of technology was introduced. Next, a general framework of business potential evaluation of technology based on literature was presented. In addition, convergence of cellular networks and data networks was studied in order to get an insight of current situation of mobile telecommunications industry. Finally, wireless local area networks business potential was evaluated. A wireless local area network is a data communication system, which combines data connectivity with mobility and is implemented in unlicensed frequency bands, allowing new business opportunities to emerge. The main markets of WLAN are corporate networks, public area networks and access networks. At the moment the penetration of WLAN terminals is low which derives to low demand of wireless LAN services. In addition, unlicensed spectrum forces the teleoperators to set the service price relatively low. The business potential is in integrating wireless LANs to cellular networks and in offering value added services to end users. The future of wireless LAN is to be complementary network to cellular networks. In this vision cellular networks provide voice and low data services and broadband wireless networks enable multimedia services.

Nature of the Epidemic Threshold for the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible Dynamics in Networks

We develop an analytical approach to the susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic model that allows us to unravel the true origin of the absence of an epidemic threshold in heterogeneous networks. We find that a delicate balance between the number of high degree nodes in the network and the topological distance between them dictates the existence or absence of such a threshold. In particular, small-world random networks with a degree distribution decaying slower than an exponential have a vanishing epidemic threshold in the thermodynamic limit.

Spectral properties of the Laplacian of multiplex networks.

One of the more challenging tasks in the understanding of dynamical properties of models on top of complex networks is to capture the precise role of multiplex topologies. In a recent paper, Gómez et al. [ Phys. Rev. Lett. 110 028701 (2013)], some of the authors proposed a framework for the study of diffusion processes in such networks. Here, we extend the previous framework to deal with general configurations in several layers of networks and analyze the behavior of the spectrum of the Laplacian of the full multiplex. We derive an interesting decoupling of the problem that allow us to unravel the role played by the interconnections of the multiplex in the dynamical processes on top of them. Capitalizing on this decoupling we perform an asymptotic analysis that allow us to derive analytical expressions for the full spectrum of eigenvalues. This spectrum is used to gain insight into physical phenomena on top of multiplex, specifically, diffusion processes and synchronizability.

Probabilistic age classification with Bayesian networks: a study on the ossification status of the medial clavicular epiphysis

In the past few decades, the rise of criminal, civil and asylum cases involving young people lacking valid identification documents has generated an increase in the demand of age estimation. The chronological age or the probability that an individual is older or younger than a given age threshold are generally estimated by means of some statistical methods based on observations performed on specific physical attributes. Among these statistical methods, those developed in the Bayesian framework allow users to provide coherent and transparent assignments which fulfill forensic and medico-legal purposes. The application of the Bayesian approach is facilitated by using probabilistic graphical tools, such as Bayesian networks. The aim of this work is to test the performances of the Bayesian network for age estimation recently presented in scientific literature in classifying individuals as older or younger than 18 years of age. For these exploratory analyses, a sample related to the ossification status of the medial clavicular epiphysis available in scientific literature was used. Results obtained in the classification are promising: in the criminal context, the Bayesian network achieved, on the average, a rate of correct classifications of approximatively 97%, whilst in the civil context, the rate is, on the average, close to the 88%. These results encourage the continuation of the development and the testing of the method in order to support its practical application in casework.

Panel Data Stochastic Convergence Analysis of the Mexican Regions

The stochastic convergence amongst Mexican Federal entities is analyzed in panel data framework. The joint consideration of cross-section dependence and multiple structural breaks is required to ensure that the statistical inference is based on statistics with good statistical properties. Once these features are accounted for, evidence in favour of stochastic convergence is found. Since stochastic convergence is a necessary, yet insufficient condition for convergence as predicted by economic growth models, the paper also investigates whether-convergence process has taken place. We found that the Mexican states have followed either heterogeneous convergence patterns or divergence process throughout the analyzed period.

The effects of social networks on work-team effectiveness

This is a study of team social networks, their antecedents and outcomes. In focusing attention on the structural configuration of the team this research contributes to a new wave of thinking concerning group social capital. The research site was a random sample of Finnish work organisations. The data consisted of 499 employees in 76 teams representing 48 different organisations. A systematic literature review and quantitative methods were used in conducting the research: the former primarily to establish the current theoretical position on the relationships among the variables and the latter to test these relationships. Social network analysis was the primary method used in identifying the social-network relations among the work-team members. The first and key contribution of this study is that it relates the structuralnetwork properties of work teams to behavioural outcomes, attitudinal outcomes and, ultimately, team performance. Moreover, it shows that addressing attitudinal outcomes is also important in terms of team performance; attitudinal outcomes (team identity) mediated the relationship between the team’s performance and its social network. The second contribution is that it examines the possible antecedents of the social structure. It is thus one response to Salancik’s (1995) call for a network theory in that it explains why certain network characteristics exist. Itdemonstrates that irrespective of whether or not a team is heterogeneous in terms of age or gender, educational diversity may protect it from centralisation. However, heterogeneity in terms of gender turned out to have a negative impact on density. Thirdly, given the observation that the benefits of (team) networks are typically theorised and modelled without reference to the nature of the relationships comprising the structure, the study directly tested whether team knowledge mediated the effects of instrumental and expressive network relationships on team performance. Furthermore, with its focus on expressive networks that link the workplace to a more informal world, which have been rather neglected in previous research, it enhances knowledge of teams andnetworks. The results indicate that knowledge sharing fully mediates the influence of complementarities between dense and fragmented instrumental network relationships, thus providing empirical validation of the implicit understanding that networks transfer knowledge. Fourthly, the study findings suggest that an optimal configuration of the work-team social-network structure combines both bridging and bonding social relationships.

Development of research networks : the case of social capital

The aim of this study is to explore how a new concept appears inscientific discussion and research, how it diffuses to other fields and out of the scientific communities, and how the networks are formed around the concept. Text and terminology take the interest of a reader in the digital environment. Texts create networks where the terminology used is dependent on the ideas, viewsand paradigms of the field. This study is based mainly on bibliographic data. Materials for bibliometric studies have been collected from different databases. The databases are also evaluated and their quality and coverage are discussed. The thesauri of those databases that have been selected for a more in depth study have also been evaluated. The material selected has been used to study how long and in which ways an innovative publication, which can be seen as a milestone in a specific field, influences the research. The concept that has been chosen as a topic for this research is Social Capital, because it has been a popular concept in different scientific fields as well as in everyday speech and the media. It seemed to be a `fashion concept´ that appeared in different situations at the Millennium. The growth and diffusion of social capital publications has been studied. The terms connected with social capital in different fields and different stages of the development have also been analyzed. The methods that have been used in this study are growth and diffusion analysis, content analysis, citation analysis, coword analysis and cocitation analysis. One method that can be used tounderstand and to interpret results of these bibliometric studies is to interview some key persons, who are known to have a gatekeeper position in the diffusion of the concept. Thematic interviews with some Finnish researchers and specialists that have influenced the diffusion of social capital into Finnish scientificand social discussions provide background information. iv The Milestone Publications on social capital have been chosen and studied. They give answers to the question "What is Social Capital?" By comparing citations to Milestone Publications with the growth of all social capital publications in a database, we can drawconclusions about the point at which social capital became generally approved `tacit knowledge´. The contribution of the present study lies foremost in understanding the development of network structures around a new concept that has diffused in scientific communities and also outside them. The network means both networks of researchers, networks of publications and networks of concepts that describe the research field. The emphasis has been on the digital environment and onthe socalled information society that we are now living in, but in this transitional stage, the printed publications are still important and widely used in social sciences and humanities. The network formation is affected by social relations and informal contacts that push new ideas. This study also gives new information about using different research methods, like bibliometric methods supported by interviews and content analyses. It is evident that interpretation of bibliometric maps presupposes qualitative information and understanding of the phenomena under study.