Research networks and inventors’ mobility as drivers of innovation evidence from Europe

We investigate the importance of the labour mobility of inventors, as well as the scale, extent and density of their collaborative research networks, for regional innovation outcomes. To do so, we apply a knowledge production function framework at the regional level and include inventors’ networks and their labour mobility as regressors. Our empirical approach takes full account of spatial interactions by estimating a spatial lag model together, where necessary, with a spatial error model. In addition, standard errors are calculated using spatial heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent estimators to ensure their robustness in the presence of spatial error autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity of unknown form. Our results point to the existence of a robust positive correlation between intraregional labour mobility and regional innovation, whilst the relationship with networks is less clear. However, networking across regions positively correlates with a region’s innovation intensity.

A practical guide for the formulation of propositions in the bayesian approach to DNA evidence interpretation in an adversarial environment

The interpretation of complex DNA profiles is facilitated by a Bayesian approach. This approach requires the development of a pair of propositions: one aligned to the prosecution case and one to the defense case. This note explores the issue of proposition setting in an adversarial environment by a series of examples. A set of guidelines generalize how to formulate propositions when there is a single person of interest and when there are multiple individuals of interest. Additional explanations cover how to handle multiple defense propositions, relatives, and the transition from subsource level to activity level propositions. The propositions depend on case information and the allegations of each of the parties. The prosecution proposition is usually known. The authors suggest that a sensible proposition is selected for the defense that is consistent with their stance, if available, and consistent with a realistic defense if their position is not known.

Is the wage curve formal or informal? Evidence for Colombia

Using microdata from the 2002-2006 Colombian Continuous Household Survey, we find an elasticity of individual wages to local unemployment rates of -0.07. However, the elasticity for informal workers is significantly higher, a result which is consistent with efficiency wage theoretical models and relevant for regional labour markets analysis in developing countries.

Ideal Body Size as a Mediator for the Gender-Specific Association Between Socioeconomic Status and Body Mass Index: Evidence From an Upper-Middle-Income Country in the African Region.

While obesity continues to rise globally, the associations between body size, gender, and socioeconomic status (SES) seem to vary in different populations, and little is known on the contribution of perceived ideal body size in the social disparity of obesity in African countries. We examined the gender and socioeconomic patterns of body mass index (BMI) and perceived ideal body size in the Seychelles, a middle-income small island state in the African region. We also assessed the potential role of perceived ideal body size as a mediator for the gender-specific association between SES and BMI. A population-based survey of 1,240 adults aged 25 to 64 years conducted in December 2013. Participants' BMI was calculated based on measured weight and height; ideal body size was assessed using a nine-silhouette instrument. Three SES indicators were considered: income, education, and occupation. BMI and perceived ideal body size were both higher among men of higher versus lower SES (p< .001) but lower among women of higher versus lower SES (p< .001), irrespective of the SES indicator used. Multivariate analysis showed a strong and direct association between perceived ideal body size and BMI in both men and women (p< .001) and was consistent with a potential mediating role of perceived ideal body size in the gender-specific associations between SES and BMI. Our study emphasizes the importance of gender and socioeconomic differences in BMI and ideal body size and suggests that public health interventions that promote perception of healthy weight could help mitigate SES-related disparities in BMI.

Genomic evidence for adaptive inversion clines in Drosophila melanogaster.

Clines in chromosomal inversion polymorphisms-presumably driven by climatic gradients-are common but there is surprisingly little evidence for selection acting on them. Here we address this long-standing issue in Drosophila melanogaster by using diagnostic single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers to estimate inversion frequencies from 28 whole-genome Pool-seq samples collected from 10 populations along the North American east coast. Inversions In(3L)P, In(3R)Mo, and In(3R)Payne showed clear latitudinal clines, and for In(2L)t, In(2R)NS, and In(3R)Payne the steepness of the clinal slopes changed between summer and fall. Consistent with an effect of seasonality on inversion frequencies, we detected small but stable seasonal fluctuations of In(2R)NS and In(3R)Payne in a temperate Pennsylvanian population over 4 years. In support of spatially varying selection, we observed that the cline in In(3R)Payne has remained stable for >40 years and that the frequencies of In(2L)t and In(3R)Payne are strongly correlated with climatic factors that vary latitudinally, independent of population structure. To test whether these patterns are adaptive, we compared the amount of genetic differentiation of inversions versus neutral SNPs and found that the clines in In(2L)t and In(3R)Payne are maintained nonneutrally and independent of admixture. We also identified numerous clinal inversion-associated SNPs, many of which exhibit parallel differentiation along the Australian cline and reside in genes known to affect fitness-related traits. Together, our results provide strong evidence that inversion clines are maintained by spatially-and perhaps also temporally-varying selection. We interpret our data in light of current hypotheses about how inversions are established and maintained.

Local privatization, intermunicipal cooperation, transaction costs and political interests: Evidence from Spain

Several empirical studies have analyzed the factors that influence local privatization. Variables related to fiscal stress, cost reduction, political processes and ideological attitudes are the most common explanatory variables used in these studies. In this paper, we add to this literature by examining the influence of transaction costs and political factors on local governments’ choices through new variables. In addition to this, we consider the role of additional aspects, such as intermunicipal cooperation as a potential alternative to privatization in order to exploit scale economies or scope economies. We consider two relevant services: solid waste collection and water distribution. Results from our estimates show that privatization (that is, contracting out to a private firm) is less common for water distribution than for solid waste collection. Higher transaction costs in water distribution are consistent with this finding. Furthermore, we find that municipalities with a conservative ruling party privatize more often regardless of the ideological orientation of the constituency. This shows that those political interests able to influence local elections are more important in determining the form of delivery than is the basic ideological stance of the constituency. Finally, we find that intermunicipal cooperation is an alternative to local privatization.

Is the wage curve formal or informal? Evidence for Colombia

The objective of this paper is to analyse the existente or not of a wage curve in Colombia, paying special attention to the differences between formal and informal workers, an issue that has been systematically ignored in the wage curve literature. The obtained results using microdata from the Colombian Continuous Household Survey (CHS) between 2002 and 2006 show the existence of a wage curve with a negative slope for the Colombian economy. Using information on metropolitan areas, the estimates of the elasticity of individual wages to local unemployment rates was -0.07, a value that is very close to those obtained for other countries. However, the disaggregation of statistical information for formal and informal workers has shown significant differences among both groups of workers. In particular, for the less protected groups of the labour market, informal workers (both men and women), a high negatively sloped wage curve was found. This result is consistent with the conclusions from efficiency wage theoretical models and should be taken into account when analysing the functioning of regional labour markets in developing countries.

Predictors of remission in the treatment of major depressive disorder: real-world evidence from a 6-month prospective observational study

BACKGROUND: This study examined potential predictors of remission among patients treated for major depressive disorder (MDD) in a naturalistic clinical setting, mostly in the Middle East, East Asia, and Mexico. METHODS: Data for this post hoc analysis were taken from a 6-month prospective, noninterventional, observational study that involved 1,549 MDD patients without sexual dysfunction at baseline in 12 countries worldwide. Depression severity was measured using the Clinical Global Impression of Severity and the 16-item Quick Inventory of Depressive Symptomatology Self-Report (QIDS-SR16). Depression-related pain was measured using the pain-related items of the Somatic Symptom Inventory. Remission was defined as a QIDS-SR16 score ≤5. Generalized estimating equation regression models were used to examine baseline factors associated with remission during follow-up. RESULTS: Being from East Asia (odds ratio [OR] 0.48 versus Mexico; P<0.001), a higher level of depression severity at baseline (OR 0.77, P=0.003, for Clinical Global Impression of Severity; OR 0.92, P<0.001, for QIDS-SR16), more previous MDD episodes (OR 0.92, P=0.007), previous treatments/therapies for depression (OR 0.78, P=0.030), and having any significant psychiatric and medical comorbidity at baseline (OR 0.60, P<0.001) were negatively associated with remission, whereas being male (OR 1.29, P=0.026) and treatment with duloxetine (OR 2.38 versus selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors, P<0.001) were positively associated with remission. However, the association between Somatic Symptom Inventory pain scores and remission no longer appeared to be significant in this multiple regression (P=0.580), (P=0.008 in descriptive statistics), although it remained significant in a subgroup of patients treated with selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (OR 0.97, P=0.023), but not in those treated with duloxetine (P=0.182). CONCLUSION: These findings are largely consistent with previous reports from the USA and Europe. They also highlight the potential mediating role of treatment with duloxetine on the negative relationship between depression-related pain and outcomes of depression.

The Forecast Performance of Model-Free Implied Volatility: Evidence from DAX Index Options

Volatility has a central role in various theoretical and practical applications in financial markets. These include the applications related to portfolio theory, derivatives pricing and financial risk management. Both theoretical and practical applications require good estimates and forecasts for the asset return volatility. The goal of this study is to examine the forecast performance of one of the more recent volatility measures, model-free implied volatility. Model-free implied volatility is extracted from the prices in the option markets, and it aims to provide an unbiased estimate for the market’s expectation on the future level of volatility. Since it is extracted from the option prices, model-free implied volatility should contain all the relevant information that the market participants have. Moreover, model-free implied volatility requires less restrictive assumptions than the commonly used Black-Scholes implied volatility, which means that it should be less biased estimate for the market’s expectations. Therefore, it should also be a better forecast for the future volatility. The forecast performance of model-free implied volatility is evaluated by comparing it to the forecast performance of Black-Scholes implied volatility and GARCH(1,1) forecast. Weekly forecasts for six years period were calculated for the forecasted variable, German stock market index DAX. The data consisted of price observations for DAX index options. The forecast performance was measured using econometric methods, which aimed to capture the biasedness, accuracy and the information content of the forecasts. The results of the study suggest that the forecast performance of model-free implied volatility is superior to forecast performance of GARCH(1,1) forecast. However, the results also suggest that the forecast performance of model-free implied volatility is not as good as the forecast performance of Black-Scholes implied volatility, which is against the hypotheses based on theory. The results of this study are consistent with the majority of prior research on the subject.

Variance reduction properties of dynamic hedging models - empirical evidence from BRICS countries

This Master’s Thesis analyses the effectiveness of different hedging models on BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) countries. Hedging performance is examined by comparing two different dynamic hedging models to conventional OLS regression based model. The dynamic hedging models being employed are Constant Conditional Correlation (CCC) GARCH(1,1) and Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) GARCH(1,1) with Student’s t-distribution. In order to capture the period of both Great Moderation and the latest financial crisis, the sample period extends from 2003 to 2014. To determine whether dynamic models outperform the conventional one, the reduction of portfolio variance for in-sample data with contemporaneous hedge ratios is first determined and then the holding period of the portfolios is extended to one and two days. In addition, the accuracy of hedge ratio forecasts is examined on the basis of out-of-sample variance reduction. The results are mixed and suggest that dynamic hedging models may not provide enough benefits to justify harder estimation and daily portfolio adjustment. In this sense, the results are consistent with the existing literature.

How Is Credit Risk Estimated? Discussion and Evidence based on Cross-Industry Sample Utilizing the KMV Model

The purpose of this thesis is to focus on credit risk estimation. Different credit risk estimation methods and characteristics of credit risk are discussed. The study is twofold, including an interview of a credit risk specialist and a quantitative section. Quantitative section applies the KMV model to estimate credit risk of 12 sample companies from three different industries: automobile, banking and financial sector and technology. Timeframe of the estimation is one year. On the basis of the KMV model and the interview, implications for analysis of credit risk are discussed. The KMV model yields consistent results with the existing credit ratings. However, banking and financial sector requires calibration of the model due to high leverage of the industry. Credit risk is considerably driven by leverage, value and volatility of assets. Credit risk models produce useful information on credit worthiness of a business. Yet, quantitative models often require qualitative support in the decision-making situation.

The regulation of oat coleoptile phosphoenolpyruvate carboxylase and malic enzyme by Hâ ½ and metabolites : kinetic evidence for and against a cytosolic pH-stat

Phosphoenolpyruvate carboxylase (PEPC) and malic enzyme activities in soluble protein extracts of Avena coleoptiles were investigated to determine whether their kinetics were consistent with a role in cytosol pH regulation. Malic enzyme activity was specific for NADP+ and Mn2+. Maximal labelled product formation from [14C]-substrates required the presence of all coenzymes, cofactors and substrates. Plots of rate versus malate concentration, and linear transformations there- 2 of, indicated typical Michaelis-Menten kinetics at non-saturating malate levels and substrate inhibition at higher malate levels. pH increases between 6.5 and 7.25 increased near-optimal activity, decreased the degree of substrate inhibition and the Kmapp(Mn2+) but did not affect the Vmax or Kmapp(malate). Transformed data of PEPC activity demonstrated non-linear plots indicative of non-Michaelian kinetics. pH increases between 7.0 and 7.6 increased the Vmax and decreased the Km app (Mg2+) but did not affect the Kmapp(PEP). Various carboxylic acids and phosphorylated sugars inhibited PEPC and malic enzyme activities, and these effects decreased with pH increases. Metabolite inhibited malic enzyme activity was non-competitive and resulted mainly from Mn2+ chelation. In contrast, metabolite inhibited PEPC activity was unique for each compound tested, being variously dependent on the PEP concentration and the pH employed. These results indicate that fluctuations in pH and metabolite levels affect PEPC and malic enzyme activities similarly and that 3 the in vitro properties of PEPC are consistent with its proposed role in a pH-stat, whereas the in vitro properties of the malic enzyme cannot be interpreted in terms of a role in pH regulation.

CEO Compensation, Compensation Risk, and Corporate Governance: Evidence from Technology Firms

Literature suggests that CEOs of technology firms earn higher pay than CEOs of non-technology firms. I investigate whether compensation risk explains the difference in compensation between technology firms and non-technology firms. Controlling for firm size and performance, I find that CEOs in technology firms have higher pay, but also have much higher compensation risk compared to non-technology firms. Compensation risk explains the major part of the difference in CEO pay. My study is consistent with the labor market economics view that CEOs earn competitive risk-adjusted total compensation.

Interpreting Quantifier Scope Ambiguity: Evidence of Heuristic First, Algorithmic Second Processing

The present work suggests that sentence processing requires both heuristic and algorithmic processing streams, where the heuristic processing strategy precedes the algorithmic phase. This conclusion is based on three self-paced reading experiments in which the processing of two-sentence discourses was investigated, where context sentences exhibited quantifier scope ambiguity. Experiment 1 demonstrates that such sentences are processed in a shallow manner. Experiment 2 uses the same stimuli as Experiment 1 but adds questions to ensure deeper processing. Results indicate that reading times are consistent with a lexical-pragmatic interpretation of number associated with context sentences, but responses to questions are consistent with the algorithmic computation of quantifier scope. Experiment 3 shows the same pattern of results as Experiment 2, despite using stimuli with different lexicalpragmatic biases. These effects suggest that language processing can be superficial, and that deeper processing, which is sensitive to structure, only occurs if required. Implications for recent studies of quantifier scope ambiguity are discussed.

Macroeconomic News and Exchange Rates: Evidence of Unstable Effect

Although the link between macroeconomic news announcements and exchange rates is well documented in recent literature, this connection may be unstable. By using a broad set of macroeconomic news announcements and high frequency forex data for the Euro/Dollar, Pound/Dollar and Yen/Dollar from Nov 1, 2004 to Mar 31, 2014, we obtain two major findings with regards to this instability. First, many macroeconomic news announcements exhibit unstable effects with certain patterns in foreign exchange rates. These news effects may change in magnitude and even in their sign over time, over business cycles and crises within distinctive contexts. This finding is robust because the results are obtained by applying a Two-Regime Smooth Transition Regression Model, a Breakpoints Regression Model, and an Efficient Test of Parameter Instability which are all consistent with each other. Second, when we explore the source of this instability, we find that global risks and the reaction by central bank monetary policy to these risks to be possible factors causing this instability.