Output convergence in Mercosur: multivariate time series evidence

The aim of this paper is to provide evidence on output convergence among the Mercosur countries and associates, using multivariate time-series tests. The methodology is based on a combination of tests and estimation procedures, both univariate and multivariate, applied to the differences in per capita real income. We use the definitions of time-series convergence proposed by Bernard & Durlauf and apply unit root and tests proposed by Abuaf & Jorion and Taylor & Sarno. In this same multivariate context, the Flôres, Preumont & Szafarz and Breuer, MbNown & Wallace tests, which allow for the existence of correlations across the series without imposing a common speed of mean reversion, identify the countries that convergence. Concerning the empirical results, there is evidence of long-run convergence or, at least, catching up, for the smaller countries, Bolivia, Paraguay, Peru and Uruguay, towards Brazil and, to some extent, Argentina. In contrast, the evidence on convergence for the larger countries is weaker, as they have followed different (or rather opposing) macroeconomic policy strategies. Thus the future of the whole area will critically depend on the ability of Brazil, Argentina and Chile to find some scope for more cooperative policy actions.

Mercado de capitais e financiamento privado para o desenvolvimento

This research argues that Brazil should create conditions for long run financing of development. The end of the inflationary process is just a first step. A second step is the development of an institutional framework to offer good alternatives to investors that have long run targets, such as pension funds etc. Particularly, in the Brazilian market predominates the trade of preferred shares instead of common shares that give more prerrogatives for investors that plan to hold these shares on long term basis. This attitude turns the market more volatile and in this way corporations lose the chance of financing their projects with large amounts of capital and have to rely instead on more debt which weakens their financial strenght.

Neighborhood feedbacks, endogenous stratification, and income inequality

This paper explores the evolution of the cross-section income distribution in economies where endogenous neighborhood formation interacts with positive within-neighborhood feedback effects. We study an economy in which the economic success of adults is determined by the characteristics of the families in the neighborhood in which a person grows up. These feedbacks take two forms. First, the tax base of a neighborhood affects the leveI of education investment in offspring. Second, the effectiveness of education investment is affected by a neighborhood's in come distribution, reflecting factors such as role model or labor market connection effects. Conditions are developed under which endogenous stratification, defined as the tendency for families wi th similar incomes to choose to form common communities, will occur. When families are allowed to choose their neighborhoods, wealthy families will have an incentive to segregate themselves from the rest of the population. This resulting stratification is supported by house price differences between ricli and poor communities. Endogenous stratification can lead to pronounced intertemporal inequality as different families provide very different interaction environments for offspring. When the transformation of human capital into in come exhibits constant retums to scale, cross-section in come differences may also grow across time. As a result, endogenous stratification and neighborhood feedbacks can interact to produce long run inequality.

The fiscal impact of trade liberalization and commodity price fluctuation: the case of Costa Rica, 1980-1998

Includes bibliography

Clinical predictors of long-term outcome in obsessive-compulsive disorder

Background: The purpose of this study was to investigate demographic and clinical factors associated with the long-term outcome of obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD). Methods: A hundred ninety-six previously untreated patients with DSM-IV criteria OCD completed a 12-week randomized open trial of group cognitive-behavioral therapy (GCBT) or fluoxetine, followed by 21 months of individualized, uncontrolled treatment, according to international guidelines for OCD treatment. OCD severity was assessed using the Yale–Brown Obsessive-Compulsive Scale (Y-BOCS) at different times over the follow-up period. Demographics and several clinical variables were assessed at baseline. Results: Fifty percent of subjects improved at least 35% from baseline, and 21.3% responded fully (final Y-BOCS score < or = 8). Worse prognosis was associated with earlier age at onset of OCD (P = 0.045), longer duration of illness (P = 0.001) presence of at least one comorbid psychiatric disorder (P = 0.001), comorbidity with a mood disorder (P = 0.002), higher baseline Beck-Depression scores (P = 0.011), positive family history of tics (P = 0.008), and positive family history of anxiety disorders (P = 0.008). Type of initial treatment was not associated with long-term outcome. After correction for multiple testing, the presence of at least one comorbid disorder, the presence of a depressive disorder, and duration of OCD remained significant. Conclusions: Patients under cognitive-behavioral or pharmacological treatment improved continuously in the long run, regardless of initial treatment modality or degree of early response, suggesting that OCD patients benefit from continuous treatment. Psychiatric comorbidity, especially depressive disorders, may impair the long-term outcome of OCD patients.

Essays in Macroecometrics: methodological aspects and empirical applications

In the first chapter, I develop a panel no-cointegration test which extends Pesaran, Shin and Smith (2001)'s bounds test to the panel framework by considering the individual regressions in a Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) system. This allows to take into account unobserved common factors that contemporaneously affect all the units of the panel and provides, at the same time, unit-specific test statistics. Moreover, the approach is particularly suited when the number of individuals of the panel is small relatively to the number of time series observations. I develop the algorithm to implement the test and I use Monte Carlo simulation to analyze the properties of the test. The small sample properties of the test are remarkable, compared to its single equation counterpart. I illustrate the use of the test through a test of Purchasing Power Parity in a panel of EU15 countries. In the second chapter of my PhD thesis, I verify the Expectation Hypothesis of the Term Structure in the repurchasing agreements (repo) market with a new testing approach. I consider an "inexact" formulation of the EHTS, which models a time-varying component in the risk premia and I treat the interest rates as a non-stationary cointegrated system. The effect of the heteroskedasticity is controlled by means of testing procedures (bootstrap and heteroskedasticity correction) which are robust to variance and covariance shifts over time. I fi#nd that the long-run implications of EHTS are verified. A rolling window analysis clarifies that the EHTS is only rejected in periods of turbulence of #financial markets. The third chapter introduces the Stata command "bootrank" which implements the bootstrap likelihood ratio rank test algorithm developed by Cavaliere et al. (2012). The command is illustrated through an empirical application on the term structure of interest rates in the US.

MODEL UPDATING AND STRUCTURAL HEALTH MONITORING OF HORIZONTAL AXIS WIND TURBINES VIA ADVANCED SPINNING FINITE ELEMENTS AND STOCHASTIC SUBSPACE IDENTIFICATION METHODS

Wind energy has been one of the most growing sectors of the nation’s renewable energy portfolio for the past decade, and the same tendency is being projected for the upcoming years given the aggressive governmental policies for the reduction of fossil fuel dependency. Great technological expectation and outstanding commercial penetration has shown the so called Horizontal Axis Wind Turbines (HAWT) technologies. Given its great acceptance, size evolution of wind turbines over time has increased exponentially. However, safety and economical concerns have emerged as a result of the newly design tendencies for massive scale wind turbine structures presenting high slenderness ratios and complex shapes, typically located in remote areas (e.g. offshore wind farms). In this regard, safety operation requires not only having first-hand information regarding actual structural dynamic conditions under aerodynamic action, but also a deep understanding of the environmental factors in which these multibody rotating structures operate. Given the cyclo-stochastic patterns of the wind loading exerting pressure on a HAWT, a probabilistic framework is appropriate to characterize the risk of failure in terms of resistance and serviceability conditions, at any given time. Furthermore, sources of uncertainty such as material imperfections, buffeting and flutter, aeroelastic damping, gyroscopic effects, turbulence, among others, have pleaded for the use of a more sophisticated mathematical framework that could properly handle all these sources of indetermination. The attainable modeling complexity that arises as a result of these characterizations demands a data-driven experimental validation methodology to calibrate and corroborate the model. For this aim, System Identification (SI) techniques offer a spectrum of well-established numerical methods appropriated for stationary, deterministic, and data-driven numerical schemes, capable of predicting actual dynamic states (eigenrealizations) of traditional time-invariant dynamic systems. As a consequence, it is proposed a modified data-driven SI metric based on the so called Subspace Realization Theory, now adapted for stochastic non-stationary and timevarying systems, as is the case of HAWT’s complex aerodynamics. Simultaneously, this investigation explores the characterization of the turbine loading and response envelopes for critical failure modes of the structural components the wind turbine is made of. In the long run, both aerodynamic framework (theoretical model) and system identification (experimental model) will be merged in a numerical engine formulated as a search algorithm for model updating, also known as Adaptive Simulated Annealing (ASA) process. This iterative engine is based on a set of function minimizations computed by a metric called Modal Assurance Criterion (MAC). In summary, the Thesis is composed of four major parts: (1) development of an analytical aerodynamic framework that predicts interacted wind-structure stochastic loads on wind turbine components; (2) development of a novel tapered-swept-corved Spinning Finite Element (SFE) that includes dampedgyroscopic effects and axial-flexural-torsional coupling; (3) a novel data-driven structural health monitoring (SHM) algorithm via stochastic subspace identification methods; and (4) a numerical search (optimization) engine based on ASA and MAC capable of updating the SFE aerodynamic model.

Experimentelle Analyse von Last- und Treibketten zur Optimierung der Lebensdauer

Zusammen mit einem namhaften Kettenhersteller hat das Institut für Fördertechnik und Logistik (IFT) im Rahmen eines AIF-geförderten Forschungsprojektes einen Kettenverschleißprüfstand für Last- und Treibketten entwickelt und gebaut, um neuentwickelte Ketten in kurzen Testphasen unter normierter Umgebung auf ihre Lebensdauer bzw. Verschleißfestigkeit zu prüfen. Durch steigende Rohstoffkosten und den immer größer werdenden Konkurrenzdruck im Bereich der Ketten entsteht ein hoher Bedarf an der Entwicklung neuer leistungsfähigerer Produkte. Die Neuheit dieser Projektidee liegt in dem erstmaligen Einsatz alternativer Werkstoffe und Konstruktionen in Kombination mit neuen verschleißarmen Beschichtungsverfahren für Kettenbauteile um Schmierstoffe langfristig einzulagern und bedarfsgerecht abzugeben

Do avoidance goals always impair performance? How neuroticism moderates the short- and long-term effects of avoidance versus approach goals on performance

Previous research agrees that approach goals have positive effects whereas avoidance goals have negative effects on performance. By contrast, the present chapter looks at the conditions under which even avoidance goals may have positive effects on performance. We will first review the previous research that supports the positive consequences of avoidance goals. Then we will argue that the positive and negative consequences of approach and avoidance goals on performance depend on an individual‘s neuroticism level and the time frame of their goal striving. Because neuroticism is positively related to avoidance goals, we assume that individuals with high levels of neuroticism may derive some benefits from avoidance goals. We have specified this assumption by hypothesizing that the fit between an individual‘s level of neuroticism and their avoidance goals leads to favorable consequences in the short term – but to negative outcomes in the long run. A short-term, experimental study with employees and a long-term correlative field study with undergraduate students were conducted to test whether neuroticism moderates the short- and long-term effects of avoidance versus approach goals on performance. Experimental study 1 showed that individuals with a high level of neuroticism performed best in the short term when they were assigned to avoidance goals, whereas individuals with a low level of neuroticism performed best when pursuing approach goals. However, study 2 indicated that in the long run individuals with a high level of neuroticism performed worse when striving for avoidance goals, whereas individuals with a low level of neuroticism were not impaired at all by avoidance goals. In summary, the pattern of results supports the hypothesis that a fit between a high level of neuroticism and avoidance goals has positive consequences in the short term, but leads to negative outcomes in the long run. We strongly encourage further research to investigate short- and long-term effects of approach and avoidance goals on performance in conjunction with an individual‘s personality, which may moderate these effects.

The inverse problem for Schwinger pair production

The production of electron–positron pairs in time-dependent electric fields (Schwinger mechanism) depends non-linearly on the applied field profile. Accordingly, the resulting momentum spectrum is extremely sensitive to small variations of the field parameters. Owing to this non-linear dependence it is so far unpredictable how to choose a field configuration such that a predetermined momentum distribution is generated. We show that quantum kinetic theory along with optimal control theory can be used to approximately solve this inverse problem for Schwinger pair production. We exemplify this by studying the superposition of a small number of harmonic components resulting in predetermined signatures in the asymptotic momentum spectrum. In the long run, our results could facilitate the observation of this yet unobserved pair production mechanism in quantum electrodynamics by providing suggestions for tailored field configurations.

Identification of essential apoptotic genes in Drosophila

Apoptosis is a normal physiological cell suicide process which is essential for tissue homeostasis and normal development of metazoans. Misregulation of apoptosis is associated with many developmental defects and human diseases. The genes involved in the regulation and execution of apoptosis are highly conserved in humans and flies. Caspases are the executioners of cell suicide. Because of the unavailability of specific fly mutants, the developmental function of many caspase genes and genetic relationship between caspases and apoptotic components were undefined in Drosophila. We isolated several mutant alleles of the initiator caspase gene dronc, the effector casase drICE, and the Mediator component Cyclin C from the GMR-hid eyFLP/FRT screens which is designed to isolate mutants of recessive cell death genes in Drosophila melanogaster. Characterization of these mutants defined that they are essential for developmental cell death in Drosophila. dronc is required for most, but not all, cell death in Drosophila. drICE is required for apoptosis in many cells and it shares redundancy with another effector caspase gene, dcp-1, in a subset of cells in Drosophila. The genetic relationship between caspases and other apoptotic components was established through mutant analysis. We found that the pro-apoptotic protein Hid induces transcription of the initiator caspase gene dronc and the GMR-induced dronc transcripts are dependent on activated effector casapses, revealing a novel regulatory mechanism to promote caspase activity in Drosophila. Cyclin C and its kinase partner Cdk8 are required for prompt transcriptional induction of dronc in cell killing contexts. In short, we define the essential pro-apoptoic function of dronc, drICE, and Cyclin C in Drosophila and reveal a novel mechanism for regulation of dronc transcription. In the long run, these studies will help us decipher the complicated regulatory mechanism of cell death in humans. ^

Villas y aldeas en el Antiguo Régimen : Conflicto y consenso en el marco local castellano

Las villas y aldeas de Castilla recorrieron juntas un largo y difícil camino desde los siglos medievales, cuando se fueron conformando como cuerpos políticos, basados en servicios recíprocos que aspiraban a alcanzar el bien común del conjunto. La naturaleza jerárquicamente desigual de dicho cuerpo fue acentuándose y las cabezas jurisdiccionales llevaron a la práctica unas relaciones de dominio cada vez más acusado frente a las aldeas. En estas comunidades rurales, linajes en ascenso aspiraban, no obstante, a ampliar sus propias cotas de autogobierno. La armonía que debía presidir el cuerpo común de villas y aldeas fue desapareciendo, y la política regia de ventas de villazgos con fines hacendísticos, iniciada por Carlos V, respondió a una demanda de segregación que solucionaba al mismo tiempo las aspiraciones jurisdiccionales de las comunidades rurales y de sus nuevas oligarquías así como las necesidades de ingresos extraordinarios de la real hacienda

Villas y aldeas en el Antiguo Régimen : Conflicto y consenso en el marco local castellano

Las villas y aldeas de Castilla recorrieron juntas un largo y difícil camino desde los siglos medievales, cuando se fueron conformando como cuerpos políticos, basados en servicios recíprocos que aspiraban a alcanzar el bien común del conjunto. La naturaleza jerárquicamente desigual de dicho cuerpo fue acentuándose y las cabezas jurisdiccionales llevaron a la práctica unas relaciones de dominio cada vez más acusado frente a las aldeas. En estas comunidades rurales, linajes en ascenso aspiraban, no obstante, a ampliar sus propias cotas de autogobierno. La armonía que debía presidir el cuerpo común de villas y aldeas fue desapareciendo, y la política regia de ventas de villazgos con fines hacendísticos, iniciada por Carlos V, respondió a una demanda de segregación que solucionaba al mismo tiempo las aspiraciones jurisdiccionales de las comunidades rurales y de sus nuevas oligarquías así como las necesidades de ingresos extraordinarios de la real hacienda

Villas y aldeas en el Antiguo Régimen : Conflicto y consenso en el marco local castellano

Las villas y aldeas de Castilla recorrieron juntas un largo y difícil camino desde los siglos medievales, cuando se fueron conformando como cuerpos políticos, basados en servicios recíprocos que aspiraban a alcanzar el bien común del conjunto. La naturaleza jerárquicamente desigual de dicho cuerpo fue acentuándose y las cabezas jurisdiccionales llevaron a la práctica unas relaciones de dominio cada vez más acusado frente a las aldeas. En estas comunidades rurales, linajes en ascenso aspiraban, no obstante, a ampliar sus propias cotas de autogobierno. La armonía que debía presidir el cuerpo común de villas y aldeas fue desapareciendo, y la política regia de ventas de villazgos con fines hacendísticos, iniciada por Carlos V, respondió a una demanda de segregación que solucionaba al mismo tiempo las aspiraciones jurisdiccionales de las comunidades rurales y de sus nuevas oligarquías así como las necesidades de ingresos extraordinarios de la real hacienda

How does country risk matter for foreign direct investment?

In this paper, we aim to identify the political and financial risk components that matter most for the activities of multinational corporations. Our paper is the first paper to comprehensively examine the impact of various components of not only political risk but also financial risk on inward FDI, from both long-run and short-run perspectives. Using a sample of 93 countries (including 60 developing countries) for the period 1985-2007, we find that among the political risk components, government stability, socioeconomic conditions, investment profile, internal conflict, external conflict, corruption, religious tensions, democratic accountability, and ethnic tensions have a close association with FDI flows. In particular, socioeconomic conditions, investment profile, and external conflict appear to be the most influential components of political risk in attracting foreign investment. Among the financial risk components, only exchange rate stability yields statistically significant positive coefficients when estimated only for developing countries. In contrast, current account as a percentage of exports of goods and services, foreign debt as a percentage of GDP, net international liquidity as the number of months of import cover, and current account as a percentage of GDP yield negative coefficients in some specifications. Thus, multinationals do not seem to consider seriously the financial risk of the host country.