990 resultados para climate trend


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With the accelerated trend of global warming, the thermal behavior of existing buildings, which were typically designed based on current weather data, may not be able to cope with the future climate. This paper quantifies, through computer simulations, the increased cooling loads imposed by potential global warming and probable indoor temperature increases due to possible undersized air-conditioning system. It is found from the sample office building examined that the existing buildings would generally be able to adapt to the increasing warmth of 2030 year Low and High scenarios projections and 2070 year Low scenario projection. However, for the 2070 year High scenario, the study indicates that the existing office buildings, in all capital cities except for Hobart, will suffer from overheating problems. When the annual average temperature increase exceeds 2°C, the risk of current office buildings subjected to overheating will be significantly increased. For existing buildings which are designed with current climate condition, it is shown that there is a nearly linear correlation between the increase of average external air temperature and the increase of building cooling load. For the new buildings, in which the possible global warming has been taken into account in the design, a 28-59% increase of cooling capacity under 2070 High scenario would be required to improve the building thermal comfort level to an acceptable standard.

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Traffic emissions are an important contributor to ambient air pollution, especially in large cities featuring extensive and high density traffic networks. Bus fleets represent a significant part of inner city traffic causing an increase in exposure to general public, passengers and drivers along bus routes and at bus stations. Limited information is available on quantification of the levels, and governing parameters affecting the air pollution exposure at bus stations. The presented study investigated the bus emissions-dominated ambient air in a large, inner city bus station, with a specific focus on submicrometer particles. The study’s objectives were (i) quantification of the concentration levels; (ii) characterisation of the spatio-temporal variation; (iii) identification of the parameters governing the emissions levels at the bus station and (iv) assessment of the relationship between particle concentrations measured at the street level (background) and within the bus station. The results show that up to 90% of the emissions at the station are ultrafine particles (smaller than 100 nm), with the concentration levels up to 10 times the value of urban ambient air background (annual) and up to 4 times the local ambient air background. The governing parameters affecting particle concentration at the station were bus flow rate and meteorological conditions (wind velocity). Particle concentration followed a diurnal trend, with an increase in the morning and evening, associated with traffic rush hours. Passengers’ exposure could be significant compared to the average outdoor and indoor exposure levels.

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Abstract Background Understanding spatio-temporal variation in malaria incidence provides a basis for effective disease control planning and monitoring. Methods Monthly surveillance data between 1991 and 2006 for Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria across 128 counties were assembled for Yunnan, a province of China with one of the highest burdens of malaria. County-level Bayesian Poisson regression models of incidence were constructed, with effects for rainfall, maximum temperature and temporal trend. The model also allowed for spatial variation in county-level incidence and temporal trend, and dependence between incidence in June–September and the preceding January–February. Results Models revealed strong associations between malaria incidence and both rainfall and maximum temperature. There was a significant association between incidence in June–September and the preceding January–February. Raw standardised morbidity ratios showed a high incidence in some counties bordering Myanmar, Laos and Vietnam, and counties in the Red River valley. Clusters of counties in south-western and northern Yunnan were identified that had high incidence not explained by climate. The overall trend in incidence decreased, but there was significant variation between counties. Conclusion Dependence between incidence in summer and the preceding January–February suggests a role of intrinsic host-pathogen dynamics. Incidence during the summer peak might be predictable based on incidence in January–February, facilitating malaria control planning, scaled months in advance to the magnitude of the summer malaria burden. Heterogeneities in county-level temporal trends suggest that reductions in the burden of malaria have been unevenly distributed throughout the province.

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Corporate advertisers spend far greater budgets than any social marketing campaign and have great potential to change public opinion on the urgent need for action on climate change. However “green-washing” has become a widespread practice by companies that wish to appear to be socially responsible without a genuine commitment and consumers can be very cynical about green marketing campaigns. Can companies be climate change advocates and still satisfy shareholders? This paper offers a case study on an Australian insurance company that argues it can make money from doing the right thing.

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This study explored the prediction of psychological climate and stresses on job satisfaction in non U.S. setting. A total of 450 surveys were sent to 11 organisations in Thailand and employees were asked to fill out the survey. The first hypothesis that positive psychological climate dimensions predicted lower level of stresses among Thai employees was partially accepted. Further regression analysis tested second hypothesis that positive psychological climate dimensions and low level of stresses predict job satisfaction among Thai employees. Contrary to expectation, only stress variables predicted job satisfaction. Thai culture influence was discussed.

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Rural land prices, in developed, free trade real estate markets, are influenced not only by prevailing economic conditions but also physical factors such as climate, topography and soil type. In broad acre farming and grazing operations, both commodity price and yields determine farm income. Yields, in turn, are a function of climate, topography and soil type. The strength of a rural land market is influenced by the overall rural economy in a Country, State or region. These differences in rural land markets can also vary within smaller regions. It has been held that rural land, in relative safe production areas, is less effected by adverse economic and climatic factors than land in more marginal agricultural areas. This paper will analyse rural land sales in both traditional cropping areas and marginal cropping areas for the period 1975 to 1996. The analysis will determine the overall trend in rural land prices over the period, compare the average annual return between marginal and established farming areas and determine which economic and production factors have influenced this change. The impact of this analysis will also be discussed in relation to rural land appraisal.

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Research on outcomes from psychiatric disorders has highlighted the importance of expressed emotion (EE), but its cost-effective measurement remains a challenge. This article describes development of the Family Attitude Scale (FAS), a 30-item instrument that can be completed by any informant. Its psychometric characteristics are reported in parents of undergraduate students and in 70 families with a schizophrenic member. The total FAS had high internal consistency in all samples, and reports of angry behaviour in FAS items showed acceptable inter-rater agreement. The FAS was associated with the reported anger, anger expression and anxiety of respondents. Substantial associations between the parents' FAS and the anger and anger expression of students was also observed. Parents of schizophrenic patients had higher FAS scores than parents of students, and the FAS was higher if disorder duration was longer or patient functioning was poorer. Hostility, high criticism and low warmth on the Camberwell Family Interview (CFI) were associated with a more negative FAS. The highest FAS in the family was a good predictor of a highly critical environment on the CFI. The FAS is a reliable and valid indicator of relationship stress and expressed anger that has wide applicability.

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The proliferation of innovative schemes to address climate change at international, national and local levels signals a fundamental shift in the priority and role of the natural environment to society, organizations and individuals. This shift in shared priorities invites academics and practitioners to consider the role of institutions in shaping and constraining responses to climate change at multiple levels of organisations and society. Institutional theory provides an approach to conceptualising and addressing climate change challenges by focusing on the central logics that guide society, organizations and individuals and their material and symbolic relationship to the environment. For example, framing a response to climate change in the form of an emission trading scheme evidences a practice informed by a capitalist market logic (Friedland and Alford 1991). However, not all responses need necessarily align with a market logic. Indeed, Thornton (2004) identifies six broad societal sectors each with its own logic (markets, corporations, professions, states, families, religions). Hence, understanding the logics that underpin successful –and unsuccessful– climate change initiatives contributes to revealing how institutions shape and constrain practices, and provides valuable insights for policy makers and organizations. This paper develops models and propositions to consider the construction of, and challenges to, climate change initiatives based on institutional logics (Thornton and Ocasio 2008). We propose that the challenge of understanding and explaining how climate change initiatives are successfully adopted be examined in terms of their institutional logics, and how these logics evolve over time. To achieve this, a multi-level framework of analysis that encompasses society, organizations and individuals is necessary (Friedland and Alford 1991). However, to date most extant studies of institutional logics have tended to emphasize one level over the others (Thornton and Ocasio 2008: 104). In addition, existing studies related to climate change initiatives have largely been descriptive (e.g. Braun 2008) or prescriptive (e.g. Boiral 2006) in terms of the suitability of particular practices. This paper contributes to the literature on logics by examining multiple levels: the proliferation of the climate change agenda provides a site in which to study how institutional logics are played out across multiple, yet embedded levels within society through institutional forums in which change takes place. Secondly, the paper specifically examines how institutional logics provide society with organising principles –material practices and symbolic constructions– which enable and constrain their actions and help define their motives and identity. Based on this model, we develop a series of propositions of the conditions required for the successful introduction of climate change initiatives. The paper proceeds as follows. We present a review of literature related to institutional logics and develop a generic model of the process of the operation of institutional logics. We then consider how this is applied to key initiatives related to climate change. Finally, we develop a series of propositions which might guide insights into the successful implementation of climate change practices.

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The human rights implications of climate change are increasingly gaining attention, with wider international acknowledgement that climate change poses a real threat to human rights. This paper considers the impact of climate change on human rights, looking particularly at the experiences of Torres Strait Islanders in northern Australia. It argues that human rights law offers a guiding set of principles which can help in developing appropriate strategies to combat climate change. In particular, the normative principles embodied in environmental rights can be useful in setting priorities and evaluating policies in response to climate change. The paper also argues that a human rights perspective can help address the underlying injustice of climate change: that it is the people who have contributed least to the problem who will bear the heaviest burden of its effects.

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As a result of rapid urbanisation, population growth, change in lifestyles, pollution and the impacts of climate change, water provision has become a critical challenge for planners and policy-makers. In the wake of increasingly difficult water provision and drought, the notion that freshwater is a finite and vulnerable resources is increasingly being realised. Many city administrations around the World are struggling to provide water security for their residents to maintain lifestyle and economic grouth. This paper review the glocalalternatives to current water sources, including that of desalination, water transfers, recycling, and integrated water management. A comparative study on alternative resources is undertaken and the results are discussed.