An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the tourism sector in Montserrat

This report provides an analysis and evaluation of the likely effects of climate change on the tourism sector in Montserrat. Clayton (2009) identifies three reasons why the Caribbean should be concerned about the potential effects of climate change on tourism: (a) the relatively high dependence on tourism as a source of foreign exchange and employment; (b) the intrinsic vulnerability of small islands and their infrastructure (e.g. hotels and resorts) to sea level rise and extreme climatic events (e.g. hurricanes and floods); and, (c) the high dependence of the regional tourist industry on carbon-based fuels (both to bring tourist to the region as well as to provide support services in the region). The effects of climate change are already being felt on the island. Between 1970 and 2009, there was a rise in the number of relatively hot days experienced on the island. Added to this, there was also a decline in mean precipitation over the period. Besides temperature, there is also the threat of wind speeds. Since the early 20th century, the number of hurricanes passing through the Caribbean has risen from about 5-6 per year to more than 25 in some years of the twenty-first century. In Montserrat, the estimated damage from four windstorms (including hurricanes) affecting the island was US$260 million or almost five times 2009 gross domestic product (GDP). Climate change is also likely to significantly affect coral reefs. Hoegh-Guldberg (2007) estimates that should current concentrations of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere rise from 380ppm to 560ppm, decreases in coral calcification and growth by 40% are likely. The report attempted to quantify the likely effects of the changes in the climatic factors mentioned above. As it relates to temperature and other climatic variables, a tourism climatic index that captures the elements of climate that impact on a destination’s experience was constructed. The index was calculated using historical observations as well as those under two likely climate scenarios: A2 and B2. The results suggest that under both scenarios, the island’s key tourism climatic features will likely decline and therefore negatively impact on the destination experience of visitors. Including this tourism climatic index in a tourism demand model suggests that this would translate into losses of around 145% of GDP. As it relates to coral reefs, the value of the damage due to the loss of coral reefs was estimated at 7.6 times GDP, while the damage due to land loss for the tourism industry was 45% of GDP. The total cost of climate change for the tourism industry was therefore projected to be 9.6 times 2009 GDP over a 40-year horizon. Given the potential for significant damage to the industry, a large number of potential adaptation measures were considered. Out of these, a short-list of 9 potential options was selected using 10 evaluation criteria. These included: (a) Increasing recommended design wind speeds for new tourism-related structures; (b) Construction of water storage tanks; (c) Irrigation network that allows for the recycling of waste water; (d) Enhanced reef monitoring systems to provide early warning alerts of bleaching events; (e) Deployment of artificial reefs and fish-aggregating devices; (f) Developing national evacuation and rescue plans; (g) Introduction of alternative attractions; (h) Providing re-training for displaced tourism workers, and; (i) Revised policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climatic realities Using cost-benefit analysis, three options were put forward as being financially viable and ready for immediate implementation: (a) Increase recommended design speeds for new tourism-related structures; (b) Enhance reef monitoring systems to provide early warning alerts of bleaching events, and; (c) Deploy artificial reefs or fish-aggregating devices. While these options had positive benefit cost ratios, other options were also recommended based on their non-tangible benefits: an irrigation network that allows for the recycling of waste water, development of national evacuation and rescue plans, providing retraining for displaced tourism workers and the revision of policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climatic realities.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the tourism sector in Saint Lucia

This report provides an analysis and evaluation of the likely effects of climate change on the tourism sector in Saint Lucia. Clayton (2009) identifies three reasons why the Caribbean should be concerned about the potential effects of climate change on tourism: (a) the relatively high dependence on tourism as a source of foreign exchange and employment; (b) the intrinsic vulnerability of small islands and their infrastructure (e.g. hotels and resorts) to sea level rise and extreme climatic events (e.g. hurricanes and floods); and, (c) the high dependence of the regional tourist industry on carbon-based fuels (both to bring tourist to the region as well as to provide support services in the region). The effects of climate change are already being felt on the island. Between 1970 and 2009 there was a rise in the number of relatively hot days experienced on the island. Added to this, there was also a decline in mean precipitation over the period. In addition to temperature, there is also the threat of increased wind speeds. Since the early twentieth century, the number of hurricanes passing through the Caribbean has risen from about 5-6 per year to more than 25 in some years of the twenty-first century. In Saint Lucia, the estimated damage from 12 windstorms (including hurricanes) affecting the island was US$1 billion or about 106% of 2009 GDP. Climate change is also likely to significantly affect coral reefs. Hoegh-Guldberg (2007) estimates that should current concentrations of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere rise from 380ppm to 560ppm, decreases in coral calcification and growth by 40% are likely. This report attempted to quantify the likely effects of the changes in the climatic factors mentioned above on the economy of Saint Lucia. As it relates to temperature and other climatic variables, a tourism climatic index that captures the elements of climate that impact on a destination’s experience was constructed. The index was calculated using historical observations, as well as those under two, likely, Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) climate scenarios: A2 and B2.

Spatial distribution of the daily precipitation concentration index in Algeria

In this paper, the spatial and temporal distribution of the daily precipitation concentration index (CI) in Algeria (south Mediterranean Sea) has been assessed. CI is an index related to the rainfall intensity and erosive capacity; therefore, this index is of great interest for studies on torrential rainfall and floods. Forty-two daily rainfall series based on high-quality and fairly regular rainfall records for the period from 1970 to 2008 were used. The daily precipitation CI results allowed the identification of three climate zones: the northern country, characterized by coastal regions with CI values between 0.59 and 0.63; the highlands, with values between 0.57 and 0.62, except for the region of Biskra (CI = 0.70); and the southern region of the country, with high rainfall concentrations with values between 0.62 and 0.69.

The taxonomic distinctness of macroinvertebrate communities of Atlantic Forest streams cannot be predicted by landscape and climate variables, but traditional biodiversity indices can

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Characterization of depolymerized residues from extremely low acid hydrolysis (ELA) of sugarcane bagasse cellulose: Effects of degree of polymerization, crystallinity and crystallite size on thermal decomposition

Sugarcane bagasse cellulose was subjected to the extremely low acid (ELA) hydrolysis in 0.07% H2SO4 at 190, 210 and 225 degrees C for various times. The cellulose residues from this process were characterized by TGA, XRD, GPC, FIR and SEM. A kinetic study of thermal decomposition of the residues was also carried out, using the ASTM and Kissinger methods. The thermal studies revealed that residues of cellulose hydrolyzed at 190, 210 and 225 degrees C for 80,40 and 8 min have initial decomposition temperature and activation energy for the main decomposition step similar to those of Avicel PH-101. XRD studies confirmed this finding by showing that these cellulose residues are similar to Avicel in crystallinity index and crystallite size in relation to the 110 and 200 planes. FTIR spectra revealed no significant changes in the cellulose chemical structure and analysis of SEM micrographs demonstrated that the particle size of the cellulose residues hydrolyzed at 190 and 210 degrees C were similar to that of Avicel. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Identification and characterization of drought/wet events homogeneous environments based on regional climate simulations

The objective of this study was to identify and characterize homogeneous environments based on the probability of drought/wet occurrence in the central-northern Brazil, considering Rondonia, Mato Grosso, Goias and Tocantins States. The drought index denominated the moisture anomaly Z-index (Z-index) was used. The input climate data for the drought index was generated by the regional climate model RegCM3 for the period from 1975 to 1989. As result of cluster analysis, it was identified 13 homogeneous environments. These environments were characterized based on the probability of drought/wet, relative density of drought/wet occurrence, annual rainfall variability and probability of drought occurrence during the rainy season (October to March). The Mato Grosso State had the highest number of homogeneous environments and the environment 11, located at southwest of this State had the highest probability of drought occurrence, 9%. The environment 10, located at the extreme east of Goias State, showed the lowest median for the total annual rainfall. The climatic event with the highest probability of occurrence in the study area is close to normal or normality moisture.

Long-term decomposition of sugarcane harvest residues in Sao Paulo state, Brazil

Crop residues returned to the soil are important to preserve fertility and sustainability. This research addressed the long-term decomposition of sugarcane post-harvest residues (trash) under reduced tillage, therefore field renewal was performed with herbicide followed by subsoiling and ratoons were deprived of interrow scarification. The trial was conducted in the northern Sao Paulo State, Brazil during four consecutive crops (2005-2008) where litter bags containing N-15-labeled trash were disposed in the field attempting to simulate two distinct situations: the previous crop trash (PCT) or residues incorporated in the field after tillage, and post-harvest trash (PHT) or the remains of plant-cane harvest. Decomposition rates regarding dry matter (DM), carbon (C), root growth, plant nutrients (N, P, K, Ca, Mg and S), lignin (LIG) cellulose (CEL) and hemicellulose (HCEL) contents were assessed for PCT (2005 ndash;2008) and for PHT (2006-2008). There were significant reductions on DM and C:N ratio due to C losses and root growth within the litter bags over time. The DM from PCT and PHT decreased 96% and 73% after four and three crops, respectively, and the higher nutrients release were found for K, Ca and N. The LIG, CEL and HCEL concentrations in PCT decreased 60%, 29%, 70% after four crops and 47%, 35%, 70% from PHT after three crops, respectively. Trash decomposition was driven mainly by residues biochemical composition, root growth within the trash blanket and the climatic conditions during the crop cycles. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sedimentary environments and climate change: a case study (late Miocene, central Crete)

In this study, conditions of deposition and stratigraphical architecture of Neogene (Tortonian, 11-6,7Ma) sediments of southern central Crete were analysed. In order to improve resolution of paleoclimatic data, new methods were applied to quantify environmental parameters and to increase the chronostratigraphic resolution in shallow water sediments. A relationship between paleoenvironmental change observed on Crete and global processes was established and a depositional model was developed. Based on a detailed analysis of the distribution of non geniculate coralline red algae, index values for water temperature and water depth were established and tested with the distribution patterns of benthic foraminifera and symbiont-bearing corals. Calcite shelled bivalves were sampled from the Algarve coast (southern Portugal) and central Crete and then 87Sr/86Sr was measured. A high resolution chronostratigraphy was developed based on the correlation between fluctuations in Sr ratios in the measured sections and in a late Miocene global seawater Sr isotope reference curve. Applying this method, a time frame was established to compare paleoenvironmental data from southern central Crete with global information on climate change reflected in oxygen isotope data. The comparison between paleotemperature data based on red algae and global oxygen isotope data showed that the employed index values reflect global change in temperature. Data indicate a warm interval during earliest Tortonian, a second short warm interval between 10 and 9,5Ma, a longer climatic optimum between 9 and 8Ma and an interval of increasing temperatures in the latest Tortonian. The distribution of coral reefs and carpets shows that during the warm intervals, the depositional environment became tropical while temperate climates prevailed during the cold interval. Since relative tectonic movements after initial half-graben formation in the early Tortonian were low in southern central Crete, sedimentary successions strongly respond to global sea-level fluctuation. A characteristic sedimentary succession formed during a 3rd order sea-level cycle: It comprises mixed siliciclastic-limestone deposited during sea-level fall and lowstand, homogenous red algal deposits formed during sea-level rise and coral carpets formed during late rise and highstand. Individual beds in the succession reflect glacioeustatic fluctuations that are most prominent in the mixed siliciclastic-limestone interval. These results confirm the fact that sedimentary successions deposited at the critical threshold between temperate and tropical environments develop characteristic changes in depositional systems and biotic associations that can be used to assemble paleoclimatic datasets.

Exploring physical processes related to past climate proxies: lake sediments and stable water isotopes

Proxy data are essential for the investigation of climate variability on time scales larger than the historical meteorological observation period. The potential value of a proxy depends on our ability to understand and quantify the physical processes that relate the corresponding climate parameter and the signal in the proxy archive. These processes can be explored under present-day conditions. In this thesis, both statistical and physical models are applied for their analysis, focusing on two specific types of proxies, lake sediment data and stable water isotopes.rnIn the first part of this work, the basis is established for statistically calibrating new proxies from lake sediments in western Germany. A comprehensive meteorological and hydrological data set is compiled and statistically analyzed. In this way, meteorological times series are identified that can be applied for the calibration of various climate proxies. A particular focus is laid on the investigation of extreme weather events, which have rarely been the objective of paleoclimate reconstructions so far. Subsequently, a concrete example of a proxy calibration is presented. Maxima in the quartz grain concentration from a lake sediment core are compared to recent windstorms. The latter are identified from the meteorological data with the help of a newly developed windstorm index, combining local measurements and reanalysis data. The statistical significance of the correlation between extreme windstorms and signals in the sediment is verified with the help of a Monte Carlo method. This correlation is fundamental for employing lake sediment data as a new proxy to reconstruct windstorm records of the geological past.rnThe second part of this thesis deals with the analysis and simulation of stable water isotopes in atmospheric vapor on daily time scales. In this way, a better understanding of the physical processes determining these isotope ratios can be obtained, which is an important prerequisite for the interpretation of isotope data from ice cores and the reconstruction of past temperature. In particular, the focus here is on the deuterium excess and its relation to the environmental conditions during evaporation of water from the ocean. As a basis for the diagnostic analysis and for evaluating the simulations, isotope measurements from Rehovot (Israel) are used, provided by the Weizmann Institute of Science. First, a Lagrangian moisture source diagnostic is employed in order to establish quantitative linkages between the measurements and the evaporation conditions of the vapor (and thus to calibrate the isotope signal). A strong negative correlation between relative humidity in the source regions and measured deuterium excess is found. On the contrary, sea surface temperature in the evaporation regions does not correlate well with deuterium excess. Although requiring confirmation by isotope data from different regions and longer time scales, this weak correlation might be of major importance for the reconstruction of moisture source temperatures from ice core data. Second, the Lagrangian source diagnostic is combined with a Craig-Gordon fractionation parameterization for the identified evaporation events in order to simulate the isotope ratios at Rehovot. In this way, the Craig-Gordon model can be directly evaluated with atmospheric isotope data, and better constraints for uncertain model parameters can be obtained. A comparison of the simulated deuterium excess with the measurements reveals that a much better agreement can be achieved using a wind speed independent formulation of the non-equilibrium fractionation factor instead of the classical parameterization introduced by Merlivat and Jouzel, which is widely applied in isotope GCMs. Finally, the first steps of the implementation of water isotope physics in the limited-area COSMO model are described, and an approach is outlined that allows to compare simulated isotope ratios to measurements in an event-based manner by using a water tagging technique. The good agreement between model results from several case studies and measurements at Rehovot demonstrates the applicability of the approach. Because the model can be run with high, potentially cloud-resolving spatial resolution, and because it contains sophisticated parameterizations of many atmospheric processes, a complete implementation of isotope physics will allow detailed, process-oriented studies of the complex variability of stable isotopes in atmospheric waters in future research.rn

Climate change in Libya and desertification of Jifara Plain

The study was arranged to manifest its objectives through preceding it with an intro-duction. Particular attention was paid in the second part to detect the physical settings of the study area, together with an attempt to show the climatic characteristics in Libya. In the third part, observed temporal and spatial climate change in Libya was investigated through the trends of temperature, precipitation, relative humidity and cloud amount over the peri-ods (1946-2000), (1946-1975), and (1976-2000), comparing the results with the global scales. The forth part detected the natural and human causes of climate change concentrat-ing on the greenhouse effect. The potential impacts of climate change on Libya were ex-amined in the fifth chapter. As a case study, desertification of Jifara Plain was studied in the sixth part. In the seventh chapter, projections and mitigations of climate change and desertification were discussed. Ultimately, the main results and recommendations of the study were summarized. In order to carry through the objectives outlined above, the following methods and approaches were used: a simple linear regression analysis was computed to detect the trends of climatic parameters over time; a trend test based on a trend-to-noise-ratio was applied for detecting linear or non-linear trends; the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test for trend was used to reveal the behavior of the trends and their significance; PCA was applied to construct the all-Libya climatic parameters trends; aridity index after Walter-Lieth was shown for computing humid respectively arid months in Libya; correlation coefficient, (after Pearson) for detecting the teleconnection between sun spot numbers, NAOI, SOI, GHGs, and global warming, climate changes in Libya; aridity index, after De Martonne, to elaborate the trends of aridity in Jifara Plain; Geographical Information System and Re-mote Sensing techniques were applied to clarify the illustrations and to monitor desertifi-cation of Jifara Plain using the available satellite images MSS, TM, ETM+ and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM). The results are explained by 88 tables, 96 figures and 10 photos. Temporal and spatial temperature changes in Libya indicated remarkably different an-nual and seasonal trends over the long observation period 1946-2000 and the short obser-vation periods 1946-1975 and 1976-2000. Trends of mean annual temperature were posi-tive at all study stations except at one from 1946-2000, negative trends prevailed at most stations from 1946-1975, while strongly positive trends were computed at all study stations from 1976-2000 corresponding with the global warming trend. Positive trends of mean minimum temperatures were observed at all reference stations from 1946-2000 and 1976-2000, while negative trends prevailed at most stations over the period 1946-1975. For mean maximum temperature, positive trends were shown from 1946-2000 and from 1976-2000 at most stations, while most trends were negative from 1946-1975. Minimum tem-peratures increased at nearly more than twice the rate of maximum temperatures at most stations. In respect of seasonal temperature, warming mostly occurred in summer and au-tumn in contrast to the global observations identifying warming mostly in winter and spring in both study periods. Precipitation across Libya is characterized by scanty and sporadically totals, as well as high intensities and very high spatial and temporal variabilities. From 1946-2000, large inter-annual and intra-annual variabilities were observed. Positive trends of annual precipi-tation totals have been observed from 1946-2000, negative trends from 1976-2000 at most stations. Variabilities of seasonal precipitation over Libya are more strikingly experienced from 1976-2000 than from 1951-1975 indicating a growing magnitude of climate change in more recent times. Negative trends of mean annual relative humidity were computed at eight stations, while positive trends prevailed at seven stations from 1946-2000. For the short observation period 1976-2000, positive trends were computed at most stations. Annual cloud amount totals decreased at most study stations in Libya over both long and short periods. Re-markably large spatial variations of climate changes were observed from north to south over Libya. Causes of climate change were discussed showing high correlation between tempera-ture increasing over Libya and CO2 emissions; weakly positive correlation between pre-cipitation and North Atlantic Oscillation index; negative correlation between temperature and sunspot numbers; negative correlation between precipitation over Libya and Southern Oscillation Index. The years 1992 and 1993 were shown as the coldest in the 1990s result-ing from the eruption of Mount Pinatubo, 1991. Libya is affected by climate change in many ways, in particular, crop production and food security, water resources, human health, population settlement and biodiversity. But the effects of climate change depend on its magnitude and the rate with which it occurs. Jifara Plain, located in northwestern Libya, has been seriously exposed to desertifica-tion as a result of climate change, landforms, overgrazing, over-cultivation and population growth. Soils have been degraded, vegetation cover disappeared and the groundwater wells were getting dry in many parts. The effect of desertification on Jifara Plain appears through reducing soil fertility and crop productivity, leading to long-term declines in agri-cultural yields, livestock yields, plant standing biomass, and plant biodiversity. Desertifi-cation has also significant implications on livestock industry and the national economy. Desertification accelerates migration from rural and nomadic areas to urban areas as the land cannot support the original inhabitants. In the absence of major shifts in policy, economic growth, energy prices, and con-sumer trends, climate change in Libya and desertification of Jifara Plain are expected to continue in the future. Libya cooperated with United Nations and other international organizations. It has signed and ratified a number of international and regional agreements which effectively established a policy framework for actions to mitigate climate change and combat deserti-fication. Libya has implemented several laws and legislative acts, with a number of ancil-lary and supplementary rules to regulate. Despite the current efforts and ongoing projects being undertaken in Libya in the field of climate change and desertification, urgent actions and projects are needed to mitigate climate change and combat desertification in the near future.

Probabilistic-based hurricane risk assessment and mitigation considering the potential impacts of climate change

Studies are suggesting that hurricane hazard patterns (e.g. intensity and frequency) may change as a consequence of the changing global climate. As hurricane patterns change, it can be expected that hurricane damage risks and costs may change as a result. This indicates the necessity to develop hurricane risk assessment models that are capable of accounting for changing hurricane hazard patterns, and develop hurricane mitigation and climatic adaptation strategies. This thesis proposes a comprehensive hurricane risk assessment and mitigation strategies that account for a changing global climate and that has the ability of being adapted to various types of infrastructure including residential buildings and power distribution poles. The framework includes hurricane wind field models, hurricane surge height models and hurricane vulnerability models to estimate damage risks due to hurricane wind speed, hurricane frequency, and hurricane-induced storm surge and accounts for the timedependant properties of these parameters as a result of climate change. The research then implements median insured house values, discount rates, housing inventory, etc. to estimate hurricane damage costs to residential construction. The framework was also adapted to timber distribution poles to assess the impacts climate change may have on timber distribution pole failure. This research finds that climate change may have a significant impact on the hurricane damage risks and damage costs of residential construction and timber distribution poles. In an effort to reduce damage costs, this research develops mitigation/adaptation strategies for residential construction and timber distribution poles. The costeffectiveness of these adaptation/mitigation strategies are evaluated through the use of a Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) analysis. In addition, a scenario-based analysis of mitigation strategies for timber distribution poles is included. For both residential construction and timber distribution poles, adaptation/mitigation measures were found to reduce damage costs. Finally, the research develops the Coastal Community Social Vulnerability Index (CCSVI) to include the social vulnerability of a region to hurricane hazards within this hurricane risk assessment. This index quantifies the social vulnerability of a region, by combining various social characteristics of a region with time-dependant parameters of hurricanes (i.e. hurricane wind and hurricane-induced storm surge). Climate change was found to have an impact on the CCSVI (i.e. climate change may have an impact on the social vulnerability of hurricane-prone regions).

The role of peat decomposition in patterned mires: a case study from the central Swiss Alps

A number of hydrological, botanical, macro- and micro-climatological processes are involved in the formation of patterned peatlands. La Grande Tsa at 2336 m a.s.l. is probably the highest bog in the central Swiss Alps and is unique in its pattern. In two of five pools there is in the contact zone between the basal peat and the overlying gyttja an unconformity in the depth-age models based on radiocarbon dates. Palynostratigraphies of cores from a ridge and a pool confirm the occurrence of an unconformity in the contact zone. We conclude that deepening of the pools results from decomposition of peat. The fact that the dated unconformities in the two pools and the unconformity in the ridge-core all fall within the Bronze Age suggest they were caused by events external to the bog. We hypothesize that early transhumance resulted in anthropogenic lowering of the timberline, which resulted in a reduction in the leaf-area index and evapotranspiration, and in higher water levels and thus pool formation.

Growth response to climate and drought change along an aridity gradient in the southernmost Pinus nigra relict forests

Tree populations at the rear edge of species distribution are sensitive to climate stress and drought. However, growth responses of these tree populations to those stressors may vary along climatic gradients. To analyze growth responses to climate and drought using dendrochronology in rear-edge Pinus nigra populations located along an aridity gradient. Tree-ring width chronologies were built for the twentieth century and related to monthly climatic variables, a drought index (Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index), and two atmospheric circulation patterns (North Atlantic and Western Mediterranean Oscillations). Growth was enhanced by wet and cold previous autumns and warm late winters before tree-ring formation. The influence of the previous year conditions on growth increased during the past century. Growth was significantly related to North Atlantic and Western Mediterranean Oscillations in two out of five sites. The strongest responses of growth to the drought index were observed in the most xeric sites. Dry conditions before tree-ring formation constrain growth in rear-edge P. nigra populations. The comparisons of climate-growth responses along aridity gradients allow characterizing the sensitivity of relict stands to climate warming.

A 350 ka record of climate change from Lake El'gygytgyn, Far East Russian Arctic: refining the pattern of climate modes by means of cluster analysis

Abstract. Rock magnetic, biochemical and inorganic records of the sediment cores PG1351 and Lz1024 from Lake El’gygytgyn, Chukotka peninsula, Far East Russian Arctic, were subject to a hierarchical agglomerative cluster analysis in order to refine and extend the pattern of climate modes as defined by Melles et al. (2007). Cluster analysis of the data obtained from both cores yielded similar results, differentiating clearly between the four climate modes warm, peak warm, cold and dry, and cold and moist. In addition, two transitional phases were identified, representing the early stages of a cold phase and slightly colder conditions during a warm phase. The statistical approach can thus be used to resolve gradual changes in the sedimentary units as an indicator of available oxygen in the hypolimnion in greater detail. Based upon cluster analyses on core Lz1024, the published succession of climate modes in core PG1351, covering the last 250 ka, was modified and extended back to 350 ka. Comparison to the marine oxygen isotope (�18O) stack LR04 (Lisiecki and Raymo, 2005) and the summer insolation at 67.5� N, with the extended Lake El’gygytgyn parameter records of magnetic susceptibility (�LF), total organic carbon content (TOC) and the chemical index of alteration (CIA; Minyuk et al., 2007), revealed that all stages back to marine isotope stage (MIS) 10 and most of the substages are clearly reflected in the pattern derived from the cluster analysis.

Adapting to climate change through sustainable land management: experiences of a pilot project in Tajikistan

Tajikistan is particularly exposed to the risks of climate change. Its widely degraded landscapes are badly prepared to cope with changes in precipitation patterns, increased temperatures, droughts, and the spread of pests and disease. Sustainable land management (SLM) provides a “basket of opportunities” to address these challenges, particularly for increasing land productivity, improving livelihoods, and protecting ecosystems. Within the Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR) in Tajikistan 70 SLM technologies and approaches on how to implement SLM were documented with the World Overview of Conservation Approaches and Technologies (WOCAT ) tools in 2011. For this purpose a climate change adaptation module was developed and tested in order to enhance the understanding about climate change resilience of SLM practices and community workshops conducted to on adaptation mechanisms by rural communities in Tajikistan. The analysis came up with four guiding principles for applying SLM for adapting to climate change: 1. Diversification of land use technologies and farm incomes; 2. Intensification of use of natural resources; 3. Expansion of highly productive land use technologies; 4. Protection of land and livelihoods from extreme weather events. Furthermore, SLM must be up-scaled from isolated plots to entire zones or landscapes and the project developed the concept of three concentric villages zones, the in-, near- and off-village zones. Land users, advisors, and decision- and policy makers face the task of finding management practices that best suit site-specific conditions. This task is most efficiently addressed in collaborative effort, and building up and managing a respective knowledge platform.