Change points detection in crime-related time series: an on-line fuzzy approach based on a shape space representation

The extension of traditional data mining methods to time series has been effectively applied to a wide range of domains such as finance, econometrics, biology, security, and medicine. Many existing mining methods deal with the task of change points detection, but very few provide a flexible approach. Querying specific change points with linguistic variables is particularly useful in crime analysis, where intuitive, understandable, and appropriate detection of changes can significantly improve the allocation of resources for timely and concise operations. In this paper, we propose an on-line method for detecting and querying change points in crime-related time series with the use of a meaningful representation and a fuzzy inference system. Change points detection is based on a shape space representation, and linguistic terms describing geometric properties of the change points are used to express queries, offering the advantage of intuitiveness and flexibility. An empirical evaluation is first conducted on a crime data set to confirm the validity of the proposed method and then on a financial data set to test its general applicability. A comparison to a similar change-point detection algorithm and a sensitivity analysis are also conducted. Results show that the method is able to accurately detect change points at very low computational costs. More broadly, the detection of specific change points within time series of virtually any domain is made more intuitive and more understandable, even for experts not related to data mining.

Detection and attribution of climate change: a regional perspective

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fourth assessment report, published in 2007 came to a more confident assessment of the causes of global temperature change than previous reports and concluded that ‘it is likely that there has been significant anthropogenic warming over the past 50 years averaged over each continent except Antarctica.’ Since then, warming over Antarctica has also been attributed to human influence, and further evidence has accumulated attributing a much wider range of climate changes to human activities. Such changes are broadly consistent with theoretical understanding, and climate model simulations, of how the planet is expected to respond. This paper reviews this evidence from a regional perspective to reflect a growing interest in understanding the regional effects of climate change, which can differ markedly across the globe. We set out the methodological basis for detection and attribution and discuss the spatial scales on which it is possible to make robust attribution statements. We review the evidence showing significant human-induced changes in regional temperatures, and for the effects of external forcings on changes in the hydrological cycle, the cryosphere, circulation changes, oceanic changes, and changes in extremes. We then discuss future challenges for the science of attribution. To better assess the pace of change, and to understand more about the regional changes to which societies need to adapt, we will need to refine our understanding of the effects of external forcing and internal variability

Detection of anthropogenic climate change using a fingerprint method

A fingerprint method for detecting anthropogenic climate change is applied to new simulations with a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (CGCM) forced by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols covering the years 1880 to 2050. In addition to the anthropogenic climate change signal, the space-time structure of the natural climate variability for near-surface temperatures is estimated from instrumental data over the last 134 years and two 1000 year simulations with CGCMs. The estimates are compared with paleoclimate data over 570 years. The space-time information on both the signal and the noise is used to maximize the signal-to-noise ratio of a detection variable obtained by applying an optimal filter (fingerprint) to the observed data. The inclusion of aerosols slows the predicted future warming. The probability that the observed increase in near-surface temperatures in recent decades is of natural origin is estimated to be less than 5%. However, this number is dependent on the estimated natural variability level, which is still subject to some uncertainty.

Experimental detection of sudden stiffness change in a structural system employing Laser Doppler Vibrometry

Sudden changes in the stiffness of a structure are often indicators of structural damage. Detection of such sudden stiffness change from the vibrations of structures is important for Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) and damage detection. Non-contact measurement of these vibrations is a quick and efficient way for successful detection of sudden stiffness change of a structure. In this paper, we demonstrate the capability of Laser Doppler Vibrometry to detect sudden stiffness change in a Single Degree Of Freedom (SDOF) oscillator within a laboratory environment. The dynamic response of the SDOF system was measured using a Polytec RSV-150 Remote Sensing Vibrometer. This instrument employs Laser Doppler Vibrometry for measuring dynamic response. Additionally, the vibration response of the SDOF system was measured through a MicroStrain G-Link Wireless Accelerometer mounted on the SDOF system. The stiffness of the SDOF system was experimentally determined through calibrated linear springs. The sudden change of stiffness was simulated by introducing the failure of a spring at a certain instant in time during a given period of forced vibration. The forced vibration on the SDOF system was in the form of a white noise input. The sudden change in stiffness was successfully detected through the measurements using Laser Doppler Vibrometry. This detection from optically obtained data was compared with a detection using data obtained from the wireless accelerometer. The potential of this technique is deemed important for a wide range of applications. The method is observed to be particularly suitable for rapid damage detection and health monitoring of structures under a model-free condition or where information related to the structure is not sufficient.

Change-point detection in environmental time series based on the informational approach

In this study, the Schwarz Information Criterion (SIC) is applied in order to detect change-points in the time series of surface water quality variables. The application of change-point analysis allowed detecting change-points in both the mean and the variance in series under study. Time variations in environmental data are complex and they can hinder the identification of the so-called change-points when traditional models are applied to this type of problems. The assumptions of normality and uncorrelation are not present in some time series, and so, a simulation study is carried out in order to evaluate the methodology’s performance when applied to non-normal data and/or with time correlation.

The effects of prepulse-blink reflex trial repetition and prepulse change on blink reflex modification at short and long lead intervals

Prepulse inhibition and facilitation of the blink reflex are said to reflect different responses elicited by the lead stimulus, transient detection and orienting response respectively. Two experiments investigated the effects of trial repetition and lead stimulus change on blink modification. It was hypothesized that these manipulations will affect orienting and thus blink facilitation to a greater extent than they will affect transient detection and thus blink inhibition. In Experiment 1 (N = 64), subjects were trained with a sequence of 12 lead stimulus and 12 blink stimulus alone presentations, and 24 lead stimulus-blink stimulus pairings. Lead interval was 120 ms for 12 of the trials and 2000 ms for the other 12. For half the subjects this sequence was followed by a change in pitch of the lead stimulus. In Experiment 2 (N = 64), subjects were trained with a sequence of 36 blink alone stimuli and 36 lead stimulus-blink stimulus pairings. The lead interval was 120 ms for half the subjects and 2000 ms for the other half. The pitch of the lead stimulus on prestimulus trials 31-33 was changed for half the subjects in each group. In both experiments, the amount of blink inhibition decreased during training whereas the amount of blink facilitation remained unchanged. Lead stimulus change had no effect on blink modification in either experiment although it resulted in enhanced skin conductance responses and greater heart rate deceleration in Experiment 2. The present results are not consistent with the notion that blink facilitation is linked to orienting whereas blink inhibition reflects a transient detection mechanism. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V.

Transcriptional Response of Peripheral Lymphocytes to Early Fibrosarcoma: A Model System for Cancer Detection Based on Hybridization Signatures

Since circulating leukocytes, mainly B and T cells, continuously maintain vigilant and comprehensive immune surveillance, these cells could be used as reporters for signs of infection or other pathologies, including cancer. Activated lymphocyte clones trigger a sensitive transcriptional response, which could be identified by gene expression profiling. To assess this hypothesis, we conducted microarray analysis of the gene expression profile of lymphocytes isolated from immunocompetent BALB/c mice subcutaneously injected with different numbers of tumorigenic B61 fibrosarcoma cells. Flow cytometry demonstrated that the number of circulating T (CD3(+)CD4(+) or CD3(+)CD8(+)) or B (CD19(+)) cells did not change. However, the lymphocytes isolated from tumor cell-injected animals expressed a unique transcriptional profile that was identifiable before the development of a palpable tumor mass. This finding demonstrates that the transcriptional response appears before alterations in the main lymphocyte subsets and that the gene expression profile of peripheral lymphocytes can serve as a sensitive and accurate method for the early detection of cancer. Exp Biol Med 234:802-812, 2009

The application of statistical process control charts to the detection and monitoring of hospital-acquired infections

The monitoring of infection control indicators including hospital-acquired infections is an established part of quality maintenance programmes in many health-care facilities. However, surveillance data use can be frustrated by the infrequent nature of many infections. Traditional methods of analysis often provide delayed identification of increasing infection occurrence, placing patients at preventable risk. The application of Shewhart, Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) and Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) statistical process control charts to the monitoring of indicator infections allows continuous real-time assessment. The Shewhart chart will detect large changes, while CUSUM and EWMA methods are more suited to recognition of small to moderate sustained change. When used together, Shewhart and EWMA methods are ideal for monitoring bacteraemia and multiresistant organism rates. Shewhart and CUSUM charts are suitable for surgical infection surveillance.

Metodological issues in measuring the detection of emotional disorders by primary care physicians: a review of the literature

A series of studies in the field of Epidemiological Psychiatry have been performed over the last two decades, and these have focused on the ability of primary care physicians to detect emotional disorders in the patients that attend their practices. The scientific methodology utilized in these studies is the subject of this review, which contains a discussion concerning: a) interviewer awareness bias; b) accuracy of the instruments and c) medical and psychological concepts involved in defining minor emotional disorders. Suggestions for change in the methodology are made in each of the sections of the review.

Development of paper-based color test-strip for drug detection in aquatic environment: Application to oxytetracycline

The wide use of antibiotics in aquaculture has led to the emergence of resistant microbial species. It should be avoided/minimized by controlling the amount of drug employed in fish farming. For this purpose, the present work proposes test-strip papers aiming at the detection/semi-quantitative determination of organic drugs by visual comparison of color changes, in a similar analytical procedure to that of pH monitoring by universal pH paper. This is done by establishing suitable chemical changes upon cellulose, attributing the paper the ability to react with the organic drug and to produce a color change. Quantitative data is also enabled by taking a picture and applying a suitable mathematical treatment to the color coordinates given by the HSL system used by windows. As proof of concept, this approach was applied to oxytetracycline (OXY), one of the antibiotics frequently used in aquaculture. A bottom-up modification of paper was established, starting by the reaction of the glucose moieties on the paper with 3-triethoxysilylpropylamine (APTES). The so-formed amine layer allowed binding to a metal ion by coordination chemistry, while the metal ion reacted after with the drug to produce a colored compound. The most suitable metals to carry out such modification were selected by bulk studies, and the several stages of the paper modification were optimized to produce an intense color change against the concentration of the drug. The paper strips were applied to the analysis of spiked environmental water, allowing a quantitative determination for OXY concentrations as low as 30 ng/mL. In general, this work provided a simple, method to screen and discriminate tetracycline drugs, in aquaculture, being a promising tool for local, quick and cheap monitoring of drugs.

Recycling old screen-printed electrodes with newly designed plastic antibodies on the wall of carbon nanotubes as sensory element for in situ detection of bacterial toxins in water

Using low cost portable devices that enable a single analytical step for screening environmental contaminants is today a demanding issue. This concept is here tried out by recycling screen-printed electrodes that were to be disposed of and by choosing as sensory element a low cost material offering specific response for an environmental contaminant. Microcystins (MCs) were used as target analyte, for being dangerous toxins produced by cyanobacteria released into water bodies. The sensory element was a plastic antibody designed by surface imprinting with carefully selected monomers to ensure a specific response. These were designed on the wall of carbon nanotubes, taking advantage of their exceptional electrical properties. The stereochemical ability of the sensory material to detect MCs was checked by preparing blank materials where the imprinting stage was made without the template molecule. The novel sensory material for MCs was introduced in a polymeric matrix and evaluated against potentiometric measurements. Nernstian response was observed from 7.24 × 10−10 to 1.28 × 10−9 M in buffer solution (10 mM HEPES, 150 mM NaCl, pH 6.6), with average slopes of −62 mVdecade−1 and detection capabilities below 1 nM. The blank materials were unable to provide a linear response against log(concentration), showing only a slight potential change towards more positive potentials with increasing concentrations (while that ofthe plastic antibodies moved to more negative values), with a maximum rate of +33 mVdecade−1. The sensors presented good selectivity towards sulphate, iron and ammonium ions, and also chloroform and tetrachloroethylene (TCE) and fast response (<20 s). This concept was successfully tested on the analysis of spiked environmental water samples. The sensors were further applied onto recycled chips, comprehending one site for the reference electrode and two sites for different selective membranes, in a biparametric approach for “in situ” analysis.