933 resultados para causal chain analysis
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The study presents the results and recommendations deriving from the application of two supply chain management analysis models as proposed by the Supply Chain Council (SCOR, version 10.0) and by Lambert (1997, Framework for Supply Chain Management) on the logistics of cash transfers in Brazil. Cash transfers consist of the transportation of notes to and from each node of the complex network formed by the bank branches, ATMs, armored transportation providers, the government custodian, Brazilian Central Bank and financial institutions. Although the logistic to sustain these operations is so wide-ranged (country-size), complex and subject to a lot of financial regulations and security procedures, it has been detected that it was probably not fully integrated. Through the use of a primary and a secondary data research and analysis, using the above mentioned models, the study ends up with propositions to strongly improve the operations efficiency
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
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The oxidative and thermo-mechanical degradation of HDPE was studied during processing in an internal mixer under two conditions: totally and partially filled chambers, which provides lower and higher concentrations of oxygen, respectively. Two types of HDPEs, Phillips and Ziegler-Natta, having different levels of terminal vinyl unsaturations were analyzed. Materials were processed at 160, 200, and 240 degrees C. Standard rheograrns using a partially filled chamber showed that the torque is much more unstable in comparison to a totally filled chamber which provides an environment depleted of oxygen. Carbonyl and transvinylene group concentrations increased, whereas vinyl group concentration decreased with temperature and oxygen availability. Average number of chain scission and branching (n(s)) was calculated from MWD curves and its plotting versus functional groups' concentration showed that chain scission or branching takes place depending upon oxygen content and vinyl groups' consumption. Chain scission and branching distribution function (CSBDF) values showed that longer chains undergo chain scission easier than shorter ones due to their higher probability of entanglements. This yields macroradicals that react with the vinyl terminal unsaturations of other chains producing chain branching. Shorter chains are more mobile, not suffering scission but instead are used for grafting the macroradicals, increasing the molecular weight. Increase in the oxygen concentration, temperature, and vinyl end groups' content facilitates the thermo-mechanical degradation reducing the amount of both, longer chains via chain scission and shorter chains via chain branching, narrowing the polydispersity. Phillips HDPE produces a higher level of chain branching than the Ziegler-Natta's type at the same processing condition. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Mortality factors that act sequentially through the demographic transitions from seed to sapling may have critical effects on recruitment success. Understanding how habitat heterogeneity influences the causal factors that limit propagule establishment in natural populations is central to assess these demographic bottlenecks and their consequences. Bamboos often influence forest structure and dynamics and are a major factor in generating landscape complexity and habitat heterogeneity in tropical forests. To understand how patch heterogeneity influences plant recruitment we studied critical establishment stages during early recruitment of Euterpe edulis, Sloanea guianensis and Virola bicuhyba in bamboo and non-bamboo stands in the Brazilian Atlantic forest. We combined observational studies of seed rain and seedling emergence with seed addition experiments to evaluate the transition probabilities among regeneration stages within bamboo and non-bamboo stands. The relative importance of each mortality factor was evaluated by determining how the loss of propagules affected stage-specific recruitment success. Our results revealed that the seed addition treatment significantly increased seedling survivorship for all three species. E. edulis seedling survival probability increased in the addition treatment in the two stand types. However, for S. guianensis and V. bicuhyba this effect depended strongly on artificially protecting the seeds, as both species experienced increased seed and seedling losses due to post-dispersal seed predators and herbivores. Propagules of all three species had a greater probability of reaching subsequent recruitment stages when protected. The recruitment of large-seeded V. bicuhyba and E. edulis appears to be much more limited by post-dispersal factors than by dispersal limitation, whereas the small-seeded S. guianensis showed an even stronger effect of post-dispersal factors causing recruitment collapse in some situations. We demonstrated that E. edulis, S. guianensis and V. bicuhyba are especially susceptible to predation during early compared with later establishment stages and this early stage mortality can be more crucial than stand differences as determinants of successful regeneration. Among-species differences in the relative importance of dispersal vs. establishment limitation are mediated by variability in species responses to patch heterogeneity. Thus, bamboo effects on the early recruitment of non-bamboo species are patchy and species-specific, with successional bamboo patches exerting a far-reaching influence on the heterogeneity of plant species composition and abundance. © 2012 Perspectives in Plant Ecology, Evolution and Systematics.
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An analysis of the dietary content of haematophagous insects can provide important information about the transmission networks of certain zoonoses. The present study evaluated the potential of polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP) analysis of the mitochondrial cytochrome B (cytb)gene to differentiate between vertebrate species that were identified as possible sources of sandfly meals. The complete cytb gene sequences of 11 vertebrate species available in the National Center for Biotechnology Information database were digested with Aci I, Alu I, Hae III and Rsa I restriction enzymes in silico using Restriction Mapper software. The cytb gene fragment (358 bp) was amplified from tissue samples of vertebrate species and the dietary contents of sandflies and digested with restriction enzymes. Vertebrate species presented a restriction fragment profile that differed from that of other species, with the exception of Canis familiaris and Cerdocyon thous. The 358 bp fragment was identified in 76 sandflies. Of these, 10 were evaluated using the restriction enzymes and the food sources were predicted for four: Homo sapiens (1), Bos taurus (1) and Equus caballus (2). Thus, the PCR-RFLP technique could be a potential method for identifying the food sources of arthropods. However, some points must be clarified regarding the applicability of the method, such as the extent of DNA degradation through intestinal digestion, the potential for multiple sources of blood meals and the need for greater knowledge regarding intraspecific variations in mtDNA.
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An analysis of the dietary content of haematophagous insects can provide important information about the transmission networks of certain zoonoses. The present study evaluated the potential of polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP) analysis of the mitochondrial cytochrome B (cytb) gene to differentiate between vertebrate species that were identified as possible sources of sandfly meals. The complete cytb gene sequences of 11 vertebrate species available in the National Center for Biotechnology Information database were digested with Aci I, Alu I, Hae III and Rsa I restriction enzymes in silico using Restriction Mapper software. The cytb gene fragment (358 bp) was amplified from tissue samples of vertebrate species and the dietary contents of sandflies and digested with restriction enzymes. Vertebrate species presented a restriction fragment profile that differed from that of other species, with the exception of Canis familiaris and Cerdocyon thous. The 358 bp fragment was identified in 76 sandflies. Of these, 10 were evaluated using the restriction enzymes and the food sources were predicted for four: Homo sapiens (1), Bos taurus (1) and Equus caballus (2). Thus, the PCR-RFLP technique could be a potential method for identifying the food sources of arthropods. However, some points must be clarified regarding the applicability of the method, such as the extent of DNA degradation through intestinal digestion, the potential for multiple sources of blood meals and the need for greater knowledge regarding intraspecific variations in mtDNA.
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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Scopo. Lo scopo di questo studio è esaminare il problema degli sprechi nelle moderne food supply chain, così da consentire una piena comprensione delle principali cause di inefficienza sistemica nell’industria alimentare e individuare potenziali opportunità di miglioramento. Approccio e Metodologia. Per raggiungere gli obiettivi prefissati la presente trattazione si propone di implementare una ricerca empirica basata sull’analisi di due realtà industriali operanti nel settore alimentare. Nello specifico verranno studiate due aziende integrate rispettivamente nel contesto economico italiano e in quello inglese e operanti a due stadi diversi e complementari della filiera alimentare, quello della produzione e quello della distribuzione. Questo studio incrociato consentirà, auspicabilmente, di portare alla luce quegli elementi chiave necessari per una lettura chiara ed esaustiva delle maggiori sfide che le moderne supply chain si trovano a dover affrontare, in una prospettiva di minimizzazione degli sprechi e di accrescimento del valore per il consumatore. Risultati. I risultati che si prevede di ottenere dall’implementazione di questo studio sono fondamentalmente quattro: 1.Piena comprensione del concetto di spreco nell’industria alimentare. 2.Identificazione dei principali fattori chiave che dovrebbero essere attentamente monitorati con lo scopo di conseguire un’efficace riduzione degli sprechi lungo la filiera alimentare. 3.Analisi critica di quelle che sono le più utilizzate pratiche manageriali e operative nelle moderne aziende alimentari. 4.Individuazione dei potenziali sviluppi che potrebbero essere implementati attraverso l’utilizzo delle più recenti ICT in termini di efficienza della supply chain. Valore della Ricerca. Seppure mediante un’analisi prevalentemente di tipo qualitativo, questa trattazione si prefigge di fornire un contributo nell’ambito del food supply chain management che, data la rilevanza del problema relativo agli sprechi, risulta oggi più attuale che mai. L’originalità di questo studio risiede principalmente nelle fonti dei dati che ne hanno costituito le fondamenta: da un lato la ricerca teorica sviluppata nel Regno Unito, dove lo studio della supply chain è ormai da decenni approfondito nelle più importanti Università; dall’altro la ricerca empirica sviluppata sia presso una delle più importanti e moderne aziende alimentari italiane, che presso uno dei più famosi logistics service provider a livello mondiale.
Gene expression analysis in ‘Candidatus Phytoplasma mali’-resistant and -susceptible Malus genotypes
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Apple proliferation (AP) disease is the most important graft-transmissible and vector-borne disease of apple in Europe. ‘Candidatus Phytoplasma mali’ (Ca. P. mali) is the causal agent of AP. Apple (Malus x domestica) and other Malus species are the only known woody hosts. In European apple orchards, the cultivars are mainly grafted on one rootstock, M. x domestica cv. M9. M9 like all other M. x domestica cultivars is susceptible to ‘Ca. P. mali’. Resistance to AP was found in the wild genotype Malus sieboldii (MS) and in MS-derived hybrids but they were characterised by poor agronomic value. The breeding of a new rootstock carrying the resistant and the agronomic traits was the major aim of a project of which this work is a part. The objective was to shed light into the unknown resistance mechanism. The plant-phytoplasma interaction was studied by analysing differences between the ‘Ca. P. mali’-resistant and -susceptible genotypes related to constitutively expressed genes or to induced genes during infection. The cDNA-Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphism (cDNA-AFLP) technique was employed in both approaches. Differences related to constitutively expressed genes were identified between two ‘Ca. P. mali’-resistant hybrid genotypes (4551 and H0909) and the ‘Ca. P. mali’-susceptible M9. 232 cDNA-AFLP bands present in the two resistant genotypes but absent in the susceptible one were isolated but several different products associated to each band were found. Therefore, two different macroarray hybridisation experiments were performed with the cDNA-AFLP fragments yielding 40 sequences encoding for genes of unknown function or a wide array of functions including plant defence. In the second approach, individuation and analysis of the induced genes was carried out exploiting an in vitro system in which healthy and ‘Ca. P. mali’-infected micropropagated plants were maintained under controlled conditions. Infection trials using in vitro grafting of ‘Ca. P. mali’ showed that the resistance phenotype could be reproduced in this system. In addition, ex vitro plants were generated as an independent control of the genes differentially expressed in the in vitro plants. The cDNA-AFLP analysis in in vitro plants yielded 63 bands characterised by over-expression in the infected state of both the H0909 and MS genotypes. The major part (37 %) of the associated sequences showed homology with products of unknown function. The other genes were involved in plant defence, energy transport/oxidative stress response, protein metabolism and cellular growth. Real-time qPCR analysis was employed to validate the differential expression of the genes individuated in the cDNA-AFLP analysis. Since no internal controls were available for the study of the gene expression in Malus, an analysis on housekeeping genes was performed. The most stably expressed genes were the elongation factor-1 α (EF1) and the eukaryotic translation initiation factor 4-A (eIF4A). Twelve out of 20 genes investigated through qPCR were significantly differentially expressed in at least one genotype either in in vitro plants or in ex vitro plants. Overall, about 20% of the genes confirmed their cDNA-AFLP expression pattern in M. sieboldii or H0909. On the contrary, 30 % of the genes showed down-regulation or were not differentially expressed. For the remaining 50 % of the genes a contrasting behaviour was observed. The qPCR data could be interpreted as follows: the phytoplasma infection unbalance photosynthetic activity and photorespiration down-regulating genes involved in photosynthesis and in the electron transfer chain. As result, and in contrast to M. x domestica genotypes, an up-regulation of genes of the general response against pathogens was found in MS. These genes involved the pathway of H2O2 and the production of secondary metabolites leading to the hypothesis that a response based on the accumulation of H2O2 in MS would be at the base of its resistance. This resembles a phenomenon known as “recovery” where the spontaneous remission of the symptoms is observed in old susceptible plants but occurring in a stochastic way while the resistance in MS is an inducible but stable feature. As additional product of this work three cDNA-AFLP-derived markers were developed which showed independent distribution among the seedlings of two breeding progenies and were associated to a genomic region characteristic of MS. These markers will contribute to the development of molecular markers for the resistance as well as to map the resistance on the Malus genome.
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In questo elaborato vengono discusse le catene di spin-1, modelli quantistici definiti su un reticolo unidimensionale con interazione tra siti primi vicini. Fra la ricca varietà di tipologie esistenti è stato scelto di porre attenzione primariamente sul modello antiferromagnetico con interazione puramente biquadratica. Vengono presentati diversi metodi di classificazione degli autostati di tale modello, a partire dalle simmetrie che ne caratterizzano l’Hamiltoniana. La corrispondenza con altri modelli noti, quali il modello XXZ di spin 1/2, la catena di Heisenberg SU (3) ed i modelli di Potts, è utile ad individuare strutture simmetriche nascoste nel formalismo di spin-1, le quali consentono di ricavare informazioni sullo spettro energetico. Infine, vengono presentati risultati numerici accompagnati da alcune considerazioni sulle modifiche dello spettro quando si aggiunge un termine bilineare alla Hamiltoniana biquadratica.
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Vaccines with limited ability to prevent HIV infection may positively impact the HIV/AIDS pandemic by preventing secondary transmission and disease in vaccine recipients who become infected. To evaluate the impact of vaccination on secondary transmission and disease, efficacy trials assess vaccine effects on HIV viral load and other surrogate endpoints measured after infection. A standard test that compares the distribution of viral load between the infected subgroups of vaccine and placebo recipients does not assess a causal effect of vaccine, because the comparison groups are selected after randomization. To address this problem, we formulate clinically relevant causal estimands using the principal stratification framework developed by Frangakis and Rubin (2002), and propose a class of logistic selection bias models whose members identify the estimands. Given a selection model in the class, procedures are developed for testing and estimation of the causal effect of vaccination on viral load in the principal stratum of subjects who would be infected regardless of randomization assignment. We show how the procedures can be used for a sensitivity analysis that quantifies how the causal effect of vaccination varies with the presumed magnitude of selection bias.
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Markov chain Monte Carlo is a method of producing a correlated sample in order to estimate features of a complicated target distribution via simple ergodic averages. A fundamental question in MCMC applications is when should the sampling stop? That is, when are the ergodic averages good estimates of the desired quantities? We consider a method that stops the MCMC sampling the first time the width of a confidence interval based on the ergodic averages is less than a user-specified value. Hence calculating Monte Carlo standard errors is a critical step in assessing the output of the simulation. In particular, we consider the regenerative simulation and batch means methods of estimating the variance of the asymptotic normal distribution. We describe sufficient conditions for the strong consistency and asymptotic normality of both methods and investigate their finite sample properties in a variety of examples.
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Permutation tests are useful for drawing inferences from imaging data because of their flexibility and ability to capture features of the brain that are difficult to capture parametrically. However, most implementations of permutation tests ignore important confounding covariates. To employ covariate control in a nonparametric setting we have developed a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for conditional permutation testing using propensity scores. We present the first use of this methodology for imaging data. Our MCMC algorithm is an extension of algorithms developed to approximate exact conditional probabilities in contingency tables, logit, and log-linear models. An application of our non-parametric method to remove potential bias due to the observed covariates is presented.