A Data-Analytic Strategy for Protein-Biomarker Discovery: Profiling of High-Dimensional Proteomic Data for Cancer Detection

With recent advances in mass spectrometry techniques, it is now possible to investigate proteins over a wide range of molecular weights in small biological specimens. This advance has generated data-analytic challenges in proteomics, similar to those created by microarray technologies in genetics, namely, discovery of "signature" protein profiles specific to each pathologic state (e.g., normal vs. cancer) or differential profiles between experimental conditions (e.g., treated by a drug of interest vs. untreated) from high-dimensional data. We propose a data analytic strategy for discovering protein biomarkers based on such high-dimensional mass-spectrometry data. A real biomarker-discovery project on prostate cancer is taken as a concrete example throughout the paper: the project aims to identify proteins in serum that distinguish cancer, benign hyperplasia, and normal states of prostate using the Surface Enhanced Laser Desorption/Ionization (SELDI) technology, a recently developed mass spectrometry technique. Our data analytic strategy takes properties of the SELDI mass-spectrometer into account: the SELDI output of a specimen contains about 48,000 (x, y) points where x is the protein mass divided by the number of charges introduced by ionization and y is the protein intensity of the corresponding mass per charge value, x, in that specimen. Given high coefficients of variation and other characteristics of protein intensity measures (y values), we reduce the measures of protein intensities to a set of binary variables that indicate peaks in the y-axis direction in the nearest neighborhoods of each mass per charge point in the x-axis direction. We then account for a shifting (measurement error) problem of the x-axis in SELDI output. After these pre-analysis processing of data, we combine the binary predictors to generate classification rules for cancer, benign hyperplasia, and normal states of prostate. Our approach is to apply the boosting algorithm to select binary predictors and construct a summary classifier. We empirically evaluate sensitivity and specificity of the resulting summary classifiers with a test dataset that is independent from the training dataset used to construct the summary classifiers. The proposed method performed nearly perfectly in distinguishing cancer and benign hyperplasia from normal. In the classification of cancer vs. benign hyperplasia, however, an appreciable proportion of the benign specimens were classified incorrectly as cancer. We discuss practical issues associated with our proposed approach to the analysis of SELDI output and its application in cancer biomarker discovery.

Fitting ACE Structural Equation Models to Case-Control Family Data

Investigators interested in whether a disease aggregates in families often collect case-control family data, which consist of disease status and covariate information for families selected via case or control probands. Here, we focus on the use of case-control family data to investigate the relative contributions to the disease of additive genetic effects (A), shared family environment (C), and unique environment (E). To this end, we describe a ACE model for binary family data and then introduce an approach to fitting the model to case-control family data. The structural equation model, which has been described previously, combines a general-family extension of the classic ACE twin model with a (possibly covariate-specific) liability-threshold model for binary outcomes. Our likelihood-based approach to fitting involves conditioning on the proband’s disease status, as well as setting prevalence equal to a pre-specified value that can be estimated from the data themselves if necessary. Simulation experiments suggest that our approach to fitting yields approximately unbiased estimates of the A, C, and E variance components, provided that certain commonly-made assumptions hold. These assumptions include: the usual assumptions for the classic ACE and liability-threshold models; assumptions about shared family environment for relative pairs; and assumptions about the case-control family sampling, including single ascertainment. When our approach is used to fit the ACE model to Austrian case-control family data on depression, the resulting estimate of heritability is very similar to those from previous analyses of twin data.

On Graphically Checking Goodness-of-fit of Binary Logistic Regression Models

OBJECTIVES: This paper is concerned with checking goodness-of-fit of binary logistic regression models. For the practitioners of data analysis, the broad classes of procedures for checking goodness-of-fit available in the literature are described. The challenges of model checking in the context of binary logistic regression are reviewed. As a viable solution, a simple graphical procedure for checking goodness-of-fit is proposed. METHODS: The graphical procedure proposed relies on pieces of information available from any logistic analysis; the focus is on combining and presenting these in an informative way. RESULTS: The information gained using this approach is presented with three examples. In the discussion, the proposed method is put into context and compared with other graphical procedures for checking goodness-of-fit of binary logistic models available in the literature. CONCLUSION: A simple graphical method can significantly improve the understanding of any logistic regression analysis and help to prevent faulty conclusions.

SURVIVAL PREDICTION FOR BRAIN TUMOR PATIENTS USING GENE EXPRESSION DATA

Brain tumor is one of the most aggressive types of cancer in humans, with an estimated median survival time of 12 months and only 4% of the patients surviving more than 5 years after disease diagnosis. Until recently, brain tumor prognosis has been based only on clinical information such as tumor grade and patient age, but there are reports indicating that molecular profiling of gliomas can reveal subgroups of patients with distinct survival rates. We hypothesize that coupling molecular profiling of brain tumors with clinical information might improve predictions of patient survival time and, consequently, better guide future treatment decisions. In order to evaluate this hypothesis, the general goal of this research is to build models for survival prediction of glioma patients using DNA molecular profiles (U133 Affymetrix gene expression microarrays) along with clinical information. First, a predictive Random Forest model is built for binary outcomes (i.e. short vs. long-term survival) and a small subset of genes whose expression values can be used to predict survival time is selected. Following, a new statistical methodology is developed for predicting time-to-death outcomes using Bayesian ensemble trees. Due to a large heterogeneity observed within prognostic classes obtained by the Random Forest model, prediction can be improved by relating time-to-death with gene expression profile directly. We propose a Bayesian ensemble model for survival prediction which is appropriate for high-dimensional data such as gene expression data. Our approach is based on the ensemble "sum-of-trees" model which is flexible to incorporate additive and interaction effects between genes. We specify a fully Bayesian hierarchical approach and illustrate our methodology for the CPH, Weibull, and AFT survival models. We overcome the lack of conjugacy using a latent variable formulation to model the covariate effects which decreases computation time for model fitting. Also, our proposed models provides a model-free way to select important predictive prognostic markers based on controlling false discovery rates. We compare the performance of our methods with baseline reference survival methods and apply our methodology to an unpublished data set of brain tumor survival times and gene expression data, selecting genes potentially related to the development of the disease under study. A closing discussion compares results obtained by Random Forest and Bayesian ensemble methods under the biological/clinical perspectives and highlights the statistical advantages and disadvantages of the new methodology in the context of DNA microarray data analysis.

Sparse computation for large-scale binary classification

Well-known data mining algorithms rely on inputs in the form of pairwise similarities between objects. For large datasets it is computationally impossible to perform all pairwise comparisons. We therefore propose a novel approach that uses approximate Principal Component Analysis to efficiently identify groups of similar objects. The effectiveness of the approach is demonstrated in the context of binary classification using the supervised normalized cut as a classifier. For large datasets from the UCI repository, the approach significantly improves run times with minimal loss in accuracy.

Reliability of operational data from pig herds and performance ratings by veterinarians and pig farmers collected during telephone interviews for the evaluation of a PCV2 piglet vaccination

BackgroundThe aim of the present study was to evaluate the feasibility of using a telephone survey in gaining an understanding of the possible herd and management factors influencing the performance (i.e. safety and efficacy) of a vaccine against porcine circovirus type 2 (PCV2) in a large number of herds and to estimate customers¿ satisfaction.ResultsDatasets from 227 pig herds that currently applied or have applied a PCV2 vaccine were analysed. Since 1-, 2- and 3-site production systems were surveyed, the herds were allocated in one of two subsets, where only applicable variables out of 180 were analysed. Group 1 was comprised of herds with sows, suckling pigs and nursery pigs, whereas herds in Group 2 in all cases kept fattening pigs. Overall 14 variables evaluating the subjective satisfaction with one particular PCV2 vaccine were comingled to an abstract dependent variable for further models, which was characterized by a binary outcome from a cluster analysis: good/excellent satisfaction (green cluster) and moderate satisfaction (red cluster). The other 166 variables comprised information about diagnostics, vaccination, housing, management, were considered as independent variables. In Group 1, herds using the vaccine due to recognised PCV2 related health problems (wasting, mortality or porcine dermatitis and nephropathy syndrome) had a 2.4-fold increased chance (1/OR) of belonging to the green cluster. In the final model for Group 1, the diagnosis of diseases other than PCV2, the reason for vaccine administration being other than PCV2-associated diseases and using a single injection of iron had significant influence on allocating into the green cluster (P¿<¿0.05). In Group 2, only unchanged time or delay of time of vaccination influenced the satisfaction (P¿<¿0.05).ConclusionThe methodology and statistical approach used in this study were feasible to scientifically assess ¿satisfaction¿, and to determine factors influencing farmers¿ and vets¿ opinion about the safety and efficacy of a new vaccine.

Logistic regression with incompletely observed binary

Logistic regression is one of the most important tools in the analysis of epidemiological and clinical data. Such data often contain missing values for one or more variables. Common practice is to eliminate all individuals for whom any information is missing. This deletion approach does not make efficient use of available information and often introduces bias.^ Two methods were developed to estimate logistic regression coefficients for mixed dichotomous and continuous covariates including partially observed binary covariates. The data were assumed missing at random (MAR). One method (PD) used predictive distribution as weight to calculate the average of the logistic regressions performing on all possible values of missing observations, and the second method (RS) used a variant of resampling technique. Additional seven methods were compared with these two approaches in a simulation study. They are: (1) Analysis based on only the complete cases, (2) Substituting the mean of the observed values for the missing value, (3) An imputation technique based on the proportions of observed data, (4) Regressing the partially observed covariates on the remaining continuous covariates, (5) Regressing the partially observed covariates on the remaining continuous covariates conditional on response variable, (6) Regressing the partially observed covariates on the remaining continuous covariates and response variable, and (7) EM algorithm. Both proposed methods showed smaller standard errors (s.e.) for the coefficient involving the partially observed covariate and for the other coefficients as well. However, both methods, especially PD, are computationally demanding; thus for analysis of large data sets with partially observed covariates, further refinement of these approaches is needed. ^

Bathymetric map of Heron Reef, Australia, derived from airborne hyperspectral data at 1 m resolution

A simple method for efficient inversion of arbitrary radiative transfer models for image analysis is presented. The method operates by representing the shape of the function that maps model parameters to spectral reflectance by an adaptive look-up tree (ALUT) that evenly distributes the discretization error of tabulated reflectances in spectral space. A post-processing step organizes the data into a binary space partitioning tree that facilitates an efficient inversion search algorithm. In an example shallow water remote sensing application, the method performs faster than an implementation of previously published methodology and has the same accuracy in bathymetric retrievals. The method has no user configuration parameters requiring expert knowledge and minimizes the number of forward model runs required, making it highly suitable for routine operational implementation of image analysis methods. For the research community, straightforward and robust inversion allows research to focus on improving the radiative transfer models themselves without the added complication of devising an inversion strategy.

Applications for wireless sensor networks : tracking with binary proximity sensors

El interés cada vez mayor por las redes de sensores inalámbricos pueden ser entendido simplemente pensando en lo que esencialmente son: un gran número de pequeños nodos sensores autoalimentados que recogen información o detectan eventos especiales y se comunican de manera inalámbrica, con el objetivo final de entregar sus datos procesados a una estación base. Los nodos sensores están densamente desplegados dentro del área de interés, se pueden desplegar al azar y tienen capacidad de cooperación. Por lo general, estos dispositivos son pequeños y de bajo costo, de modo que pueden ser producidos y desplegados en gran numero aunque sus recursos en términos de energía, memoria, velocidad de cálculo y ancho de banda están enormemente limitados. Detección, tratamiento y comunicación son tres elementos clave cuya combinación en un pequeño dispositivo permite lograr un gran número de aplicaciones. Las redes de sensores proporcionan oportunidades sin fin, pero al mismo tiempo plantean retos formidables, tales como lograr el máximo rendimiento de una energía que es escasa y por lo general un recurso no renovable. Sin embargo, los recientes avances en la integración a gran escala, integrado de hardware de computación, comunicaciones, y en general, la convergencia de la informática y las comunicaciones, están haciendo de esta tecnología emergente una realidad. Del mismo modo, los avances en la nanotecnología están empezando a hacer que todo gire entorno a las redes de pequeños sensores y actuadores distribuidos. Hay diferentes tipos de sensores tales como sensores de presión, acelerómetros, cámaras, sensores térmicos o un simple micrófono. Supervisan las condiciones presentes en diferentes lugares tales como la temperatura, humedad, el movimiento, la luminosidad, presión, composición del suelo, los niveles de ruido, la presencia o ausencia de ciertos tipos de objetos, los niveles de tensión mecánica sobre objetos adheridos y las características momentáneas tales como la velocidad , la dirección y el tamaño de un objeto, etc. Se comprobara el estado de las Redes Inalámbricas de Sensores y se revisaran los protocolos más famosos. Así mismo, se examinara la identificación por radiofrecuencia (RFID) ya que se está convirtiendo en algo actual y su presencia importante. La RFID tiene un papel crucial que desempeñar en el futuro en el mundo de los negocios y los individuos por igual. El impacto mundial que ha tenido la identificación sin cables está ejerciendo fuertes presiones en la tecnología RFID, los servicios de investigación y desarrollo, desarrollo de normas, el cumplimiento de la seguridad y la privacidad y muchos más. Su potencial económico se ha demostrado en algunos países mientras que otros están simplemente en etapas de planificación o en etapas piloto, pero aun tiene que afianzarse o desarrollarse a través de la modernización de los modelos de negocio y aplicaciones para poder tener un mayor impacto en la sociedad. Las posibles aplicaciones de redes de sensores son de interés para la mayoría de campos. La monitorización ambiental, la guerra, la educación infantil, la vigilancia, la micro-cirugía y la agricultura son solo unos pocos ejemplos de los muchísimos campos en los que tienen cabida las redes mencionadas anteriormente. Estados Unidos de América es probablemente el país que más ha investigado en esta área por lo que veremos muchas soluciones propuestas provenientes de ese país. Universidades como Berkeley, UCLA (Universidad de California, Los Ángeles) Harvard y empresas como Intel lideran dichas investigaciones. Pero no solo EE.UU. usa e investiga las redes de sensores inalámbricos. La Universidad de Southampton, por ejemplo, está desarrollando una tecnología para monitorear el comportamiento de los glaciares mediante redes de sensores que contribuyen a la investigación fundamental en glaciología y de las redes de sensores inalámbricos. Así mismo, Coalesenses GmbH (Alemania) y Zurich ETH están trabajando en diversas aplicaciones para redes de sensores inalámbricos en numerosas áreas. Una solución española será la elegida para ser examinada más a fondo por ser innovadora, adaptable y polivalente. Este estudio del sensor se ha centrado principalmente en aplicaciones de tráfico, pero no se puede olvidar la lista de más de 50 aplicaciones diferentes que ha sido publicada por la firma creadora de este sensor específico. En la actualidad hay muchas tecnologías de vigilancia de vehículos, incluidos los sensores de bucle, cámaras de video, sensores de imagen, sensores infrarrojos, radares de microondas, GPS, etc. El rendimiento es aceptable, pero no suficiente, debido a su limitada cobertura y caros costos de implementación y mantenimiento, especialmente este ultimo. Tienen defectos tales como: línea de visión, baja exactitud, dependen mucho del ambiente y del clima, no se puede realizar trabajos de mantenimiento sin interrumpir las mediciones, la noche puede condicionar muchos de ellos, tienen altos costos de instalación y mantenimiento, etc. Por consiguiente, en las aplicaciones reales de circulación, los datos recibidos son insuficientes o malos en términos de tiempo real debido al escaso número de detectores y su costo. Con el aumento de vehículos en las redes viales urbanas las tecnologías de detección de vehículos se enfrentan a nuevas exigencias. Las redes de sensores inalámbricos son actualmente una de las tecnologías más avanzadas y una revolución en la detección de información remota y en las aplicaciones de recogida. Las perspectivas de aplicación en el sistema inteligente de transporte son muy amplias. Con este fin se ha desarrollado un programa de localización de objetivos y recuento utilizando una red de sensores binarios. Esto permite que el sensor necesite mucha menos energía durante la transmisión de información y que los dispositivos sean más independientes con el fin de tener un mejor control de tráfico. La aplicación se centra en la eficacia de la colaboración de los sensores en el seguimiento más que en los protocolos de comunicación utilizados por los nodos sensores. Las operaciones de salida y retorno en las vacaciones son un buen ejemplo de por qué es necesario llevar la cuenta de los coches en las carreteras. Para ello se ha desarrollado una simulación en Matlab con el objetivo localizar objetivos y contarlos con una red de sensores binarios. Dicho programa se podría implementar en el sensor que Libelium, la empresa creadora del sensor que se examinara concienzudamente, ha desarrollado. Esto permitiría que el aparato necesitase mucha menos energía durante la transmisión de información y los dispositivos sean más independientes. Los prometedores resultados obtenidos indican que los sensores de proximidad binarios pueden formar la base de una arquitectura robusta para la vigilancia de áreas amplias y para el seguimiento de objetivos. Cuando el movimiento de dichos objetivos es suficientemente suave, no tiene cambios bruscos de trayectoria, el algoritmo ClusterTrack proporciona un rendimiento excelente en términos de identificación y seguimiento de trayectorias los objetos designados como blancos. Este algoritmo podría, por supuesto, ser utilizado para numerosas aplicaciones y se podría seguir esta línea de trabajo para futuras investigaciones. No es sorprendente que las redes de sensores de binarios de proximidad hayan atraído mucha atención últimamente ya que, a pesar de la información mínima de un sensor de proximidad binario proporciona, las redes de este tipo pueden realizar un seguimiento de todo tipo de objetivos con la precisión suficiente. Abstract The increasing interest in wireless sensor networks can be promptly understood simply by thinking about what they essentially are: a large number of small sensing self-powered nodes which gather information or detect special events and communicate in a wireless fashion, with the end goal of handing their processed data to a base station. The sensor nodes are densely deployed inside the phenomenon, they deploy random and have cooperative capabilities. Usually these devices are small and inexpensive, so that they can be produced and deployed in large numbers, and so their resources in terms of energy, memory, computational speed and bandwidth are severely constrained. Sensing, processing and communication are three key elements whose combination in one tiny device gives rise to a vast number of applications. Sensor networks provide endless opportunities, but at the same time pose formidable challenges, such as the fact that energy is a scarce and usually non-renewable resource. However, recent advances in low power Very Large Scale Integration, embedded computing, communication hardware, and in general, the convergence of computing and communications, are making this emerging technology a reality. Likewise, advances in nanotechnology and Micro Electro-Mechanical Systems are pushing toward networks of tiny distributed sensors and actuators. There are different sensors such as pressure, accelerometer, camera, thermal, and microphone. They monitor conditions at different locations, such as temperature, humidity, vehicular movement, lightning condition, pressure, soil makeup, noise levels, the presence or absence of certain kinds of objects, mechanical stress levels on attached objects, the current characteristics such as speed, direction and size of an object, etc. The state of Wireless Sensor Networks will be checked and the most famous protocols reviewed. As Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) is becoming extremely present and important nowadays, it will be examined as well. RFID has a crucial role to play in business and for individuals alike going forward. The impact of ‘wireless’ identification is exerting strong pressures in RFID technology and services research and development, standards development, security compliance and privacy, and many more. The economic value is proven in some countries while others are just on the verge of planning or in pilot stages, but the wider spread of usage has yet to take hold or unfold through the modernisation of business models and applications. Possible applications of sensor networks are of interest to the most diverse fields. Environmental monitoring, warfare, child education, surveillance, micro-surgery, and agriculture are only a few examples. Some real hardware applications in the United States of America will be checked as it is probably the country that has investigated most in this area. Universities like Berkeley, UCLA (University of California, Los Angeles) Harvard and enterprises such as Intel are leading those investigations. But not just USA has been using and investigating wireless sensor networks. University of Southampton e.g. is to develop technology to monitor glacier behaviour using sensor networks contributing to fundamental research in glaciology and wireless sensor networks. Coalesenses GmbH (Germany) and ETH Zurich are working in applying wireless sensor networks in many different areas too. A Spanish solution will be the one examined more thoroughly for being innovative, adaptable and multipurpose. This study of the sensor has been focused mainly to traffic applications but it cannot be forgotten the more than 50 different application compilation that has been published by this specific sensor’s firm. Currently there are many vehicle surveillance technologies including loop sensors, video cameras, image sensors, infrared sensors, microwave radar, GPS, etc. The performance is acceptable but not sufficient because of their limited coverage and expensive costs of implementation and maintenance, specially the last one. They have defects such as: line-ofsight, low exactness, depending on environment and weather, cannot perform no-stop work whether daytime or night, high costs for installation and maintenance, etc. Consequently, in actual traffic applications the received data is insufficient or bad in terms of real-time owed to detector quantity and cost. With the increase of vehicle in urban road networks, the vehicle detection technologies are confronted with new requirements. Wireless sensor network is the state of the art technology and a revolution in remote information sensing and collection applications. It has broad prospect of application in intelligent transportation system. An application for target tracking and counting using a network of binary sensors has been developed. This would allow the appliance to spend much less energy when transmitting information and to make more independent devices in order to have a better traffic control. The application is focused on the efficacy of collaborative tracking rather than on the communication protocols used by the sensor nodes. Holiday crowds are a good case in which it is necessary to keep count of the cars on the roads. To this end a Matlab simulation has been produced for target tracking and counting using a network of binary sensors that e.g. could be implemented in Libelium’s solution. Libelium is the enterprise that has developed the sensor that will be deeply examined. This would allow the appliance to spend much less energy when transmitting information and to make more independent devices. The promising results obtained indicate that binary proximity sensors can form the basis for a robust architecture for wide area surveillance and tracking. When the target paths are smooth enough ClusterTrack particle filter algorithm gives excellent performance in terms of identifying and tracking different target trajectories. This algorithm could, of course, be used for different applications and that could be done in future researches. It is not surprising that binary proximity sensor networks have attracted a lot of attention lately. Despite the minimal information a binary proximity sensor provides, networks of these sensing modalities can track all kinds of different targets classes accurate enough.

Evaluation of a Change Detection Methodology by Means of Binary Thresholding Algorithms and Informational Fusion Processes

Landcover is subject to continuous changes on a wide variety of temporal and spatial scales. Those changes produce significant effects in human and natural activities. Maintaining an updated spatial database with the occurred changes allows a better monitoring of the Earth?s resources and management of the environment. Change detection (CD) techniques using images from different sensors, such as satellite imagery, aerial photographs, etc., have proven to be suitable and secure data sources from which updated information can be extracted efficiently, so that changes can also be inventoried and monitored. In this paper, a multisource CD methodology for multiresolution datasets is applied. First, different change indices are processed, then different thresholding algorithms for change/no_change are applied to these indices in order to better estimate the statistical parameters of these categories, finally the indices are integrated into a change detection multisource fusion process, which allows generating a single CD result from several combination of indices. This methodology has been applied to datasets with different spectral and spatial resolution properties. Then, the obtained results are evaluated by means of a quality control analysis, as well as with complementary graphical representations. The suggested methodology has also been proved efficiently for identifying the change detection index with the higher contribution.

Depth-based face recognition using local quantized patterns adapted for range data

A depth-based face recognition algorithm specially adapted to high range resolution data acquired by the new Microsoft Kinect 2 sensor is presented. A novel descriptor called Depth Local Quantized Pattern descriptor has been designed to make use of the extended range resolution of the new sensor. This descriptor is a substantial modification of the popular Local Binary Pattern algorithm. One of the main contributions is the introduction of a quantification step, increasing its capacity to distinguish different depth patterns. The proposed descriptor has been used to train and test a Support Vector Machine classifier, which has proven to be able to accurately recognize different people faces from a wide range of poses. In addition, a new depth-based face database acquired by the new Kinect 2 sensor have been created and made public to evaluate the proposed face recognition system.

Human-computer interaction based on visual hand-gesture recognition using volumetric spatiograms of local binary patterns

A more natural, intuitive, user-friendly, and less intrusive Human–Computer interface for controlling an application by executing hand gestures is presented. For this purpose, a robust vision-based hand-gesture recognition system has been developed, and a new database has been created to test it. The system is divided into three stages: detection, tracking, and recognition. The detection stage searches in every frame of a video sequence potential hand poses using a binary Support Vector Machine classifier and Local Binary Patterns as feature vectors. These detections are employed as input of a tracker to generate a spatio-temporal trajectory of hand poses. Finally, the recognition stage segments a spatio-temporal volume of data using the obtained trajectories, and compute a video descriptor called Volumetric Spatiograms of Local Binary Patterns (VS-LBP), which is delivered to a bank of SVM classifiers to perform the gesture recognition. The VS-LBP is a novel video descriptor that constitutes one of the most important contributions of the paper, which is able to provide much richer spatio-temporal information than other existing approaches in the state of the art with a manageable computational cost. Excellent results have been obtained outperforming other approaches of the state of the art.

Financial fragility, trade credit and contagion effects during the crisis: a spatial econometric approach to firm-level data

The number of distressed manufacturing firms increased sharply during recessionary phase 2009-13. Financial indebtness traditionally plays a key role in assessing firm solvency but contagion effects that originate from the supply chain are usually neglected in literature. Firm interconnections, captured via the trade credit channel, represent a primary vehicle of individual shocks’ propagation, especially during an economic downturn, when liquidity tensions arise. A representative sample of 11,920 Italian manufacturing firms is considered to model a two-step econometric design, where chain reactions in terms of trade credit accumulation (i.e. default of payments to suppliers) are primarily analyzed by resorting to a spatial autoregressive approach (SAR). Spatial interactions are modeled based on a unique dataset of firm-to-firm transactions registered before the outbreak of the crisis. The second step in instead a binary outcome model where trade credit chains are considered together with data on the bank-firm relationship to assess determinants of distress likelihoods in 2009-13. Results show that outstanding trade debt is affected by the liquidity position of a firm and by positive spatial effects. Trade credit chain reactions are found to exert, in turn, a positive impact on distress likelihoods during the crisis. The latter effect is comparable in magnitude to the one exerted by individual financial rigidity, and stresses the importance to include complex interactions between firms in the analysis of the solvency behavior.

An algorithm to hide information in binary images

The objective of this paper is to develop a method to hide information inside a binary image. An algorithm to embed data in scanned text or figures is proposed, based on the detection of suitable pixels, which verify some conditions in order to be not detected. In broad terms, the algorithm locates those pixels placed at the contours of the figures or in those areas where some scattering of the two colors can be found. The hidden information is independent from the values of the pixels where this information is embedded. Notice that, depending on the sequence of bits to be hidden, around half of the used pixels to keep bits of data will not be modified. The other basic characteristic of the proposed scheme is that it is necessary to take into consideration the bits that are modified, in order to perform the recovering process of the information, which consists on recovering the sequence of bits placed in the proper positions. An application to banking sector is proposed for hidding some information in signatures.

A VLT/FLAMES survey for massive binaries in Westerlund 1. III. The WC9d binary W239 and implications for massive stellar evolution

Context. There is growing evidence that a treatment of binarity amongst OB stars is essential for a full theory of stellar evolution. However the binary properties of massive stars – frequency, mass ratio & orbital separation – are still poorly constrained. Aims. In order to address this shortcoming we have undertaken a multiepoch spectroscopic study of the stellar population of the young massive cluster Westerlund 1. In this paper we present an investigation into the nature of the dusty Wolf-Rayet star and candidate binary W239. Methods. To accomplish this we have utilised our spectroscopic data in conjunction with multi-year optical and near-IR photometric observations in order to search for binary signatures. Comparison of these data to synthetic non-LTE model atmosphere spectra were used to derive the fundamental properties of the WC9 primary. Results. We found W239 to have an orbital period of only ~5.05 days, making it one of the most compact WC binaries yet identified. Analysis of the long term near-IR lightcurve reveals a significant flare between 2004-6. We interpret this as evidence for a third massive stellar component in the system in a long period (>6 yr), eccentric orbit, with dust production occuring at periastron leading to the flare. The presence of a near-IR excess characteristic of hot (~1300 K) dust at every epoch is consistent with the expectation that the subset of persistent dust forming WC stars are short (<1 yr) period binaries, although confirmation will require further observations. Non-LTE model atmosphere analysis of the spectrum reveals the physical properties of the WC9 component to be fully consistent with other Galactic examples. Conclusions. The simultaneous presence of both short period Wolf-Rayet binaries and cool hypergiants within Wd 1 provides compelling evidence for a bifurcation in the post-Main Sequence evolution of massive stars due to binarity. Short period O+OB binaries will evolve directly to the Wolf-Rayet phase, either due to an episode of binary mediated mass loss – likely via case A mass transfer or a contact configuration – or via chemically homogenous evolution. Conversely, long period binaries and single stars will instead undergo a red loop across the HR diagram via a cool hypergiant phase. Future analysis of the full spectroscopic dataset for Wd 1 will constrain the proportion of massive stars experiencing each pathway; hence quantifying the importance of binarity in massive stellar evolution up to and beyond supernova and the resultant production of relativistic remnants.