948 resultados para best estimate method


Relevância:

80.00% 80.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Significant synchronous shifts in the chemistry, mineralogy, grain sizes and color of the sediments at 6 m below sea floor (mbsf) at ODP Site 1195 on the Marion Plateau (NE Australia) are interpreted to reflect a major regional paleoceanographic change: the initiation of the southern province of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). The onset of this massive carbonate production centre nearby resulted primarily in increased deposition of carbonate-rich sediments of neritic origin. Both sedimentation rate and terrigenous input record a coincident decline attributed to inshore trapping of materials behind the reefs. Our best estimate places the development of reef framework in the southern part of the GBR between 560 and 670 kyr B.P., based on an age model combining magnetostratigraphic and biostratigraphic data. The proposed estimation agrees with previous studies reporting an age between 500 and 930 kyr B.P., constraining more tightly their results. However, it does not support research placing the birth of the GBR in Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11 (~400 kyr), nor the theory of a worldwide modern barrier reef development at that time.

Relevância:

80.00% 80.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

El objetivo del trabajo fue determinar la concentración de polifenoles en extractos de hojas de verano y otoño y de escobajo de variedades tintas de vitis vinifera, obtenidos por distintos métodos.Se trabajó con hojas de verano y de otoño de variedad Syrah y con hojas de otoño variedad Malbec, dividiéndolas por su color en rojas y amarillas, y con escobajo de variedad Malbec. Los extractos se obtuvieron por maceración en agua y baño María hirviente durante tres horas (BM), maceración en agua y agitación, a temperatura ambiente, durante 48 horas (AG). Se utilizó como referencia oleorresina de romero. El orden decreciente respecto de la cantidad de polifenoles expresados en g de quercitina / g de extracto seco fue el siguiente: oleorresina de romero: 56,3 ± 0,3 extracto de: hojas de otoño Syrah por maceración y agitación en agua a temperatura ambiente durante 48 horas: 7,5 ± 0,3; escobajo Malbec por maceración y agitación en agua a temperatura ambiente durante 48 horas: 24 ± 0,3; hojas de otoño rojas Malbec por maceración y agitación en agua a temperatura ambiente durante 48 horas: 22 ± 0,3; escobajo de Malbec: a baño María 21,4 ± 0,3; hojas de otoño Syrah 3 horas a baño María: 21,1 ±0,3; hojas de otoño amarillas Malbec por maceración y agitación en agua a temperatura ambiente durante 48 horas: 17 ± 0,3; hojas de verano Syrah 3 horas a baño María: 16,5 ± 0,3; hojas de otoño rojas Malbec 3 horas a baño María: 13,8 ± 0,3; hojas de otoño amarillas Malbec 3 horas a baño María: 12,4 ± 0,3; hojas de verano Syrah por maceración y agitación en agua a temperatura ambiente durante 48 horas: 12,2 ± 0,3. Se concluyó que las hojas de otoño contienen mayor cantidad de polifenoles que las de verano; la variedad Syrah posee más polifenoles en hojas que la variedad Malbec; el escobajo de Malbec contiene más olifenoles que las hojas de la misma variedad; y el mejor método de extracción para obtener estos compuestos activos fue por maceración en agua y agitación a temperatura ambiente durante 48 horas.

Relevância:

80.00% 80.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Recently published studies of Ocean Drilling Project (ODP) cores from near southeast Asia revealed microtektite contents much higher than those in previously studied cores, suggesting that Ir contents might be enhanced in the tektite-bearing horizons. We determined a positive Ir anomaly in ODP core 758B from the Ninetyeast Ridge, eastern Indian Ocean; the peak Ir concentration of 190 pg/ g was ~2X the continuum level. The net Ir fluence is 1.8+/-0.5 ng/cm**2 over the depth interval from 10.87 to 11.32 m; a small additional peak also associated with microtektites contributes another 0.5 ng Ir/cm**2. Concentrations of Ir in core 769A show more scatter, but a small Ir enhancement is associated with the peak microtektite abundance; our best estimate of the poorly constrained fluence is 1.3+/-0.7 ng/cm**2. Data on deep-sea cores show that the microtektite fluence falls exponentially away from southeast Asia, the fluence dropping a factor of 2 in ~400 km. In southeast Asia the trend merges with a roughly estimated mass fluence of ~1.1 g/cm**2 inferred from evidence of a melt sheet in northeast Thailand. Integration of the inferred distribution yields a total mass of Australasian tektites of 3.2x10**16 g, much higher than previous estimates. Assuming a similar fallout distribution for the impactor and a chondritic composition allows us to calculate its mass to be 1.5x10**15 g, about 3 orders of magnitude smaller than the minimum mass of the impactor responsible for the extinctions at the end of the Cretaceous.

Relevância:

80.00% 80.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Upper Miocene foraminiferal nannofossil ooze and chalk from DSDP Hole 552A in the northeast Atlantic Ocean have been closely sampled for biostratigraphic, paleomagnetic, and stable-isotopic studies. Sampling at 10-cm intervals resulted in an uppermost Miocene isotope stratigraphy with a 1000- to 3000-yr. resolution. Covariance in benthic (Planulina wuellerstorfi) and planktonic (Globigerina bulloides) foraminiferal d18O records is taken as evidence for variability in continental ice volume. Our best estimate is that glacial maxima occurred at -5.0 and ~ 5.5 Ma and lasted no more than 20,000 yrs. These events probably lowered sea level by 60 m below the latest Miocene average. There is little oxygen-isotope evidence, however, for a prolonged glaciation during the last 2 m.y. of the late Miocene. High- and low-frequency variability in the d13C record of foraminifers is useful for correlation among North Atlantic DSDP Sites 408, 410, 522, 610, and 611, and for correlation with sites in other oceans. Similar d13C changes are seen in P. wuellerstorfi and G. bulloides, but the amplitude of the signal is always greater in G. bulloides. Variability in d13C common to both species probably reflects variability in the d13C of total CO2 in seawater. Major long-term features in the d13C record include a latest Miocene maximum (P. wuellerstorfi = 1.5 per mil ) in paleomagnetic Chron 7, an abrupt decrease in d13C at -6.2 Ma, and a slight increase at -5.5 Ma. The decrease in d13C at -6.2 Ma, which has been paleomagnetically dated only twice before, occurs in the upper reversed part of Chronozone 6 at Holes 552A and 611C, in excellent agreement with earlier studies. Cycles in d13C with a period of ~ 10 4 yrs. are interpreted as changes in seawater chemistry, which may have resulted from orbitally induced variability in continental biomass. Samples of P. wuellerstorfi younger than 6 Ma from throughout the North Atlantic have d13C near lo, on average ~ l per mil greater than samples of the same age in the Pacific Ocean. Thus, there is no evidence for cessation of North Atlantic Deep Water production resulting from the Messinian "salinity crisis." Biostratigraphic results indicate continuous sedimentation during the late Miocene after about -6.5 Ma at Hole 552A. Nannofossil biostratigraphy is complicated by the scarcity of low-latitude marker species, but middle and late Miocene Zones NN7 through NN11 are recognized. A hiatus is present at -6.5 Ma, on the basis of simultaneous first occurrences of Amaurolithusprimus, Amaurolithus delicatus, Amaurolithus amplificus, and Scyphosphaera globulata. The frequency and duration of older hiatuses increase downsection in Hole 552A, as suggested by calcareous nannofossil biostratigraphy and magnetostratigraphy. Paleomagnetic results at Hole 552A indicate a systematic pattern of inclination changes. Chronozone 6 was readily identified because of its characteristic nannoflora (sequential occurrences of species assigned to the genus Amaurolithus) and the d13C decrease in foraminifers, but its lower reversed interval is condensed. Only the lower normal interval of Chronozone 5 was recognized at Hole 552A; the upper normal interval and the lowest Gilbert sediment are not recognized, owing to low intensity of magnetization and to coring disturbance. Interpreting magnetic reversals below Chronozone 6 was difficult because of hiatuses, but a lower normally magnetized interval is probably Chronozone 7. Correlation between DSDP Hole 552A and other North Atlantic sites is demonstrated using coiling direction changes in the planktonic foraminifer Neogloboquadrina. At most sites this genus changed its coiling preference from dominantly right to dominantly left during the late Miocene. At Hole 552A this event probably occurred about 7 m.y. ago. At the same time, P. wuellerstorfi had maximum d13C values. A similar d13C maximum and coiling change occurred together in Chron 7 at Hole 611C, and at Hole 610E. In sediment younger than -5.5 Ma, the coiling of small Neogloboquadrina species is random, but the larger species N. atlantica retains preferential left coiling.

Relevância:

80.00% 80.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Ocean Drilling Program Legs 127 and 128 in the Yamato Basin of the Japan Sea, a Miocene-age back-arc basin in the western Pacific Ocean, recovered incompatible-element-depleted and enriched tholeiitic dolerites and basalts from the basin floor, which provide evidence of a significant sedimentary component in their mantle source. Isotopically, the volcanic rocks cover a wide range of compositions (e.g., 87Sr/86Sr = 0.70369 - 0.70503, 206Pb/204Pb = 17.65 - 18.36) and define a mixing trend between a depleted mantle (DM) component and an enriched component with the composition of EM II. At Site 797, the combined isotope and trace element systematics support a model of two component mixing between depleted, MORB-like mantle and Pacific pelagic sediments. A best estimate of the composition of the sedimentary component has been determined by analyzing samples of differing lithology from DSDP Sites 579 and 581 in the western Pacific, east of the Japan arc. The sediments have large depletions in the high field strength elements and are relatively enriched in the large-ion-lithophile elements, including Pb. These characteristics are mirrored, with reduced amplitudes, in Japan Sea enriched tholeiites and northeast Japan arc lavas, which strengthens the link between source enrichment and subducted sediments. However, Site 579/581 sediments have higher LILE/REE and lower HFSE/REE than the enriched component inferred fiom mixing trends at Site 797. Sub-arc devolatilization of the sediments is a process that will lower LILE/REE and raise HFSE/REE in the residual sediment, and thus this residual sediment may serve as the enriched component in the back-arc basalt source. Samples from other potential sources of an enriched, EM II-like component beneath Japan, such as the subcontinental lithosphere or crust, have isotopic compositions which overlap those of the Japan Sea tholeiites and are not "enriched" enough to be the EM II end-member.

Relevância:

80.00% 80.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The paper presents first results of a pan-boreal scale land cover harmonization and classification. A methodology is presented that combines global and regional vegetation datasets to extract percentage cover information for different vegetation physiognomy and barren for the pan-arctic region within the ESA Data User Element Permafrost. Based on the legend description of each land cover product the datasets are harmonized into four LCCS (Land Cover Classification System) classifiers which are linked to the MODIS Vegetation Continuous Field (VCF) product. Harmonized land cover and Vegetation Continuous Fields products are combined to derive a best estimate of percentage cover information for trees, shrubs, herbaceous and barren areas for Russia. Future work will concentrate on the expansion of the developed methodology to the pan-arctic scale. Since the vegetation builds an isolation layer, which protects the permafrost from heat and cold temperatures, a degradation of this layer due to fire strongly influences the frozen conditions in the soil. Fire is an important disturbance factor which affects vast processes and dynamics in ecosystems (e.g. biomass, biodiversity, hydrology, etc.). Especially in North Eurasia the fire occupancy has dramatically increased in the last 50 years and has doubled in the 1990s with respect to the last five decades. A comparison of global and regional fire products has shown discrepancies between the amounts of burn scars detected by different algorithms and satellite data.

Relevância:

80.00% 80.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The classic paleotemperature record based on d18O data from pelagic foraminiferal calcite suggests that equatorial sea-surface temperatures during the Maastrichtian (~12-20°C) were much cooler than today (~27-29°C). Such cool equatorial temperatures contradict basic theories of tropical atmospheric and ocean dynamics. We report d18O data from remarkably well preserved rudist aragonite and magnesian calcite cements of Maastrichtian age (~69+/-1 Ma) from the carbonate platform of Wodejebato guyot in the western Pacific. These data suggest that equatorial sea-surface temperatures in the Maastrichtian (best estimate ~27-32°C) were at least as warm as today. This finding helps reconcile the geologic d18O record with ocean-atmospheric dynamic theory and implies a reduction in the poleward heat flux required by global climate simulations of greenhouse conditions.

Relevância:

80.00% 80.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

La simulación de la física del núcleo de los reactores nucleares por su complejidad requiere del uso de computadores y del software adecuado, y su evolución es ir hacía métodos y modelos de los llamados best-estimate, con el objeto de aumentar la disponibilidad de la central manteniendo los márgenes de seguridad. Para ello el Departamento de Ingeniería Nuclear (UPM), ha desarrollado el Sistema SEANAP en uso en varias centrales nucleares españolas, que realiza la simulación en 3D y con detalle de barrita combustible del quemado nominal y real del núcleo del reactor, hace el seguimiento en línea de la operación, y ayuda a la planificación óptima de las maniobras operacionales

Relevância:

80.00% 80.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The perturbation approach relies in principle on a unique “NJOY + MCNP5 + SUSD3D”calculation. The inputs are the geometry MCNP5 input file and an ENDF file containing covariances.

Relevância:

80.00% 80.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Burn-up credit analyses are based on depletion calculations that provide an accurate prediction of spent fuel isotopic contents, followed by criticality calculations to assess keff

Relevância:

80.00% 80.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The need to refine models for best-estimate calculations, based on good-quality experimental data, has been expressed in many recent meetings in the field of nuclear applications. The modeling needs arising in this respect should not be limited to the currently available macroscopic methods but should be extended to next-generation analysis techniques that focus on more microscopic processes. One of the most valuable databases identified for the thermalhydraulics modeling was developed by the Nuclear Power Engineering Corporation (NUPEC), Japan. From 1987 to 1995, NUPEC performed steady-state and transient critical power and departure from nucleate boiling (DNB) test series based on the equivalent full-size mock-ups. Considering the reliability not only of the measured data, but also other relevant parameters such as the system pressure, inlet sub-cooling and rod surface temperature, these test series supplied the first substantial database for the development of truly mechanistic and consistent models for boiling transition and critical heat flux. Over the last few years the Pennsylvania State University (PSU) under the sponsorship of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has prepared, organized, conducted and summarized the OECD/NRC Full-size Fine-mesh Bundle Tests (BFBT) Benchmark. The international benchmark activities have been conducted in cooperation with the Nuclear Energy Agency/Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (NEA/OECD) and Japan Nuclear Energy Safety (JNES) organization, Japan. Consequently, the JNES has made available the Boiling Water Reactor (BWR) NUPEC database for the purposes of the benchmark. Based on the success of the OECD/NRC BFBT benchmark the JNES has decided to release also the data based on the NUPEC Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) subchannel and bundle tests for another follow-up international benchmark entitled OECD/NRC PWR Subchannel and Bundle Tests (PSBT) benchmark. This paper presents an application of the joint Penn State University/Technical University of Madrid (UPM) version of the well-known subchannel code COBRA-TF, namely CTF, to the critical power and departure from nucleate boiling (DNB) exercises of the OECD/NRC BFBT and PSBT benchmarks

Relevância:

80.00% 80.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

El accidente de rotura de tubos de un generador de vapor (Steam Generator Tube Rupture, SGTR) en los reactores de agua a presión es uno de los transitorios más exigentes desde el punto de vista de operación. Los transitorios de SGTR son especiales, ya que podría dar lugar a emisiones radiológicas al exterior sin necesidad de daño en el núcleo previo o sin que falle la contención, ya que los SG pueden constituir una vía directa desde el reactor al medio ambiente en este transitorio. En los análisis de seguridad, el SGTR se analiza desde un punto determinista y probabilista, con distintos enfoques con respecto a las acciones del operador y las consecuencias analizadas. Cuando comenzaron los Análisis Deterministas de Seguridad (DSA), la forma de analizar el SGTR fue sin dar crédito a la acción del operador durante los primeros 30 min del transitorio, lo que suponía que el grupo de operación era capaz de detener la fuga por el tubo roto dentro de ese tiempo. Sin embargo, los diferentes casos reales de accidentes de SGTR sucedidos en los EE.UU. y alrededor del mundo demostraron que los operadores pueden emplear más de 30 minutos para detener la fuga en la vida real. Algunas metodologías fueron desarrolladas en los EEUU y en Europa para abordar esa cuestión. En el Análisis Probabilista de Seguridad (PSA), las acciones del operador se tienen en cuenta para diseñar los cabeceros en el árbol de sucesos. Los tiempos disponibles se utilizan para establecer los criterios de éxito para dichos cabeceros. Sin embargo, en una secuencia dinámica como el SGTR, las acciones de un operador son muy dependientes del tiempo disponible por las acciones humanas anteriores. Además, algunas de las secuencias de SGTR puede conducir a la liberación de actividad radiológica al exterior sin daño previo en el núcleo y que no se tienen en cuenta en el APS, ya que desde el punto de vista de la integridad de núcleo son de éxito. Para ello, para analizar todos estos factores, la forma adecuada de analizar este tipo de secuencias pueden ser a través de una metodología que contemple Árboles de Sucesos Dinámicos (Dynamic Event Trees, DET). En esta Tesis Doctoral se compara el impacto en la evolución temporal y la dosis al exterior de la hipótesis más relevantes encontradas en los Análisis Deterministas a nivel mundial. La comparación se realiza con un modelo PWR Westinghouse de tres lazos (CN Almaraz) con el código termohidráulico TRACE, con hipótesis de estimación óptima, pero con hipótesis deterministas como criterio de fallo único o pérdida de energía eléctrica exterior. Las dosis al exterior se calculan con RADTRAD, ya que es uno de los códigos utilizados normalmente para los cálculos de dosis del SGTR. El comportamiento del reactor y las dosis al exterior son muy diversas, según las diferentes hipótesis en cada metodología. Por otra parte, los resultados están bastante lejos de los límites de regulación, pese a los conservadurismos introducidos. En el siguiente paso de la Tesis Doctoral, se ha realizado un análisis de seguridad integrado del SGTR según la metodología ISA, desarrollada por el Consejo de Seguridad Nuclear español (CSN). Para ello, se ha realizado un análisis termo-hidráulico con un modelo de PWR Westinghouse de 3 lazos con el código MAAP. La metodología ISA permite la obtención del árbol de eventos dinámico del SGTR, teniendo en cuenta las incertidumbres en los tiempos de actuación del operador. Las simulaciones se realizaron con SCAIS (sistema de simulación de códigos para la evaluación de la seguridad integrada), que incluye un acoplamiento dinámico con MAAP. Las dosis al exterior se calcularon también con RADTRAD. En los resultados, se han tenido en cuenta, por primera vez en la literatura, las consecuencias de las secuencias en términos no sólo de daños en el núcleo sino de dosis al exterior. Esta tesis doctoral demuestra la necesidad de analizar todas las consecuencias que contribuyen al riesgo en un accidente como el SGTR. Para ello se ha hecho uso de una metodología integrada como ISA-CSN. Con este enfoque, la visión del DSA del SGTR (consecuencias radiológicas) se une con la visión del PSA del SGTR (consecuencias de daño al núcleo) para evaluar el riesgo total del accidente. Abstract Steam Generator Tube Rupture accidents in Pressurized Water Reactors are known to be one of the most demanding transients for the operating crew. SGTR are special transient as they could lead to radiological releases without core damage or containment failure, as they can constitute a direct path to the environment. The SGTR is analyzed from a Deterministic and Probabilistic point of view in the Safety Analysis, although the assumptions of the different approaches regarding the operator actions are quite different. In the beginning of Deterministic Safety Analysis, the way of analyzing the SGTR was not crediting the operator action for the first 30 min of the transient, assuming that the operating crew was able to stop the primary to secondary leakage within that time. However, the different real SGTR accident cases happened in the USA and over the world demonstrated that operators can took more than 30 min to stop the leakage in actual sequences. Some methodologies were raised in the USA and in Europe to cover that issue. In the Probabilistic Safety Analysis, the operator actions are taken into account to set the headers in the event tree. The available times are used to establish the success criteria for the headers. However, in such a dynamic sequence as SGTR, the operator actions are very dependent on the time available left by the other human actions. Moreover, some of the SGTR sequences can lead to offsite doses without previous core damage and they are not taken into account in PSA as from the point of view of core integrity are successful. Therefore, to analyze all this factors, the appropriate way of analyzing that kind of sequences could be through a Dynamic Event Tree methodology. This Thesis compares the impact on transient evolution and the offsite dose of the most relevant hypothesis of the different SGTR analysis included in the Deterministic Safety Analysis. The comparison is done with a PWR Westinghouse three loop model in TRACE code (Almaraz NPP), with best estimate assumptions but including deterministic hypothesis such as single failure criteria or loss of offsite power. The offsite doses are calculated with RADTRAD code, as it is one of the codes normally used for SGTR offsite dose calculations. The behaviour of the reactor and the offsite doses are quite diverse depending on the different assumptions made in each methodology. On the other hand, although the high conservatism, such as the single failure criteria, the results are quite far from the regulatory limits. In the next stage of the Thesis, the Integrated Safety Assessment (ISA) methodology, developed by the Spanish Nuclear Safety Council (CSN), has been applied to a thermohydraulical analysis of a Westinghouse 3-loop PWR plant with the MAAP code. The ISA methodology allows obtaining the SGTR Dynamic Event Tree taking into account the uncertainties on the operator actuation times. Simulations are performed with SCAIS (Simulation Code system for Integrated Safety Assessment), which includes a dynamic coupling with MAAP thermal hydraulic code. The offsite doses are calculated also with RADTRAD. The results shows the consequences of the sequences in terms not only of core damage but of offsite doses. This Thesis shows the need of analyzing all the consequences in an accident such as SGTR. For that, an it has been used an integral methodology like ISA-CSN. With this approach, the DSA vision of the SGTR (radiological consequences) is joined with the PSA vision of the SGTR (core damage consequences) to measure the total risk of the accident.

Relevância:

80.00% 80.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Best estimate analysis of rod ejection transients requires 3D kinetics core simulators. If they use cross sections libraries compiled in multidimensional tables,interpolation errors – originated when the core simulator computes the cross sections from the table values – are a source of uncertainty in k-effective calculations that should be accounted for. Those errors depend on the grid covering the domain of state variables and can be easily reduced, in contrast with other sources of uncertainties such as the ones due to nuclear data, by choosing an optimized grid distribution. The present paper assesses the impact of the grid structure on a PWR rod ejection transient analysis using the coupled neutron-kinetics/thermal-hydraulicsCOBAYA3/COBRA-TF system. Forthispurpose, the OECD/NEA PWR MOX/UO2 core transient benchmark has been chosen, as material compositions and geometries are available, allowing the use of lattice codes to generate libraries with different grid structures. Since a complete nodal cross-section library is also provided as part of the benchmark specifications, the effects of the library generation on transient behavior are also analyzed.Results showed large discrepancies when using the benchmark library and own-generated libraries when compared with benchmark participants’ solutions. The origin of the discrepancies was found to lie in the nodal cross sections provided in the benchmark.

Relevância:

80.00% 80.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

La metodología Integrated Safety Analysis (ISA), desarrollada en el área de Modelación y Simulación (MOSI) del Consejo de Seguridad Nuclear (CSN), es un método de Análisis Integrado de Seguridad que está siendo evaluado y analizado mediante diversas aplicaciones impulsadas por el CSN; el análisis integrado de seguridad, combina las técnicas evolucionadas de los análisis de seguridad al uso: deterministas y probabilistas. Se considera adecuado para sustentar la Regulación Informada por el Riesgo (RIR), actual enfoque dado a la seguridad nuclear y que está siendo desarrollado y aplicado en todo el mundo. En este contexto se enmarcan, los proyectos Safety Margin Action Plan (SMAP) y Safety Margin Assessment Application (SM2A), impulsados por el Comité para la Seguridad de las Instalaciones Nucleares (CSNI) de la Agencia de la Energía Nuclear (NEA) de la Organización para la Cooperación y el Desarrollo Económicos (OCDE) en el desarrollo del enfoque adecuado para el uso de las metodologías integradas en la evaluación del cambio en los márgenes de seguridad debidos a cambios en las condiciones de las centrales nucleares. El comité constituye un foro para el intercambio de información técnica y de colaboración entre las organizaciones miembro, que aportan sus propias ideas en investigación, desarrollo e ingeniería. La propuesta del CSN es la aplicación de la metodología ISA, especialmente adecuada para el análisis según el enfoque desarrollado en el proyecto SMAP que pretende obtener los valores best-estimate con incertidumbre de las variables de seguridad que son comparadas con los límites de seguridad, para obtener la frecuencia con la que éstos límites son superados. La ventaja que ofrece la ISA es que permite el análisis selectivo y discreto de los rangos de los parámetros inciertos que tienen mayor influencia en la superación de los límites de seguridad, o frecuencia de excedencia del límite, permitiendo así evaluar los cambios producidos por variaciones en el diseño u operación de la central que serían imperceptibles o complicados de cuantificar con otro tipo de metodologías. La ISA se engloba dentro de las metodologías de APS dinámico discreto que utilizan la generación de árboles de sucesos dinámicos (DET) y se basa en la Theory of Stimulated Dynamics (TSD), teoría de fiabilidad dinámica simplificada que permite la cuantificación del riesgo de cada una de las secuencias. Con la ISA se modelan y simulan todas las interacciones relevantes en una central: diseño, condiciones de operación, mantenimiento, actuaciones de los operadores, eventos estocásticos, etc. Por ello requiere la integración de códigos de: simulación termohidráulica y procedimientos de operación; delineación de árboles de sucesos; cuantificación de árboles de fallos y sucesos; tratamiento de incertidumbres e integración del riesgo. La tesis contiene la aplicación de la metodología ISA al análisis integrado del suceso iniciador de la pérdida del sistema de refrigeración de componentes (CCWS) que genera secuencias de pérdida de refrigerante del reactor a través de los sellos de las bombas principales del circuito de refrigerante del reactor (SLOCA). Se utiliza para probar el cambio en los márgenes, con respecto al límite de la máxima temperatura de pico de vaina (1477 K), que sería posible en virtud de un potencial aumento de potencia del 10 % en el reactor de agua a presión de la C.N. Zion. El trabajo realizado para la consecución de la tesis, fruto de la colaboración de la Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros de Minas y Energía y la empresa de soluciones tecnológicas Ekergy Software S.L. (NFQ Solutions) con el área MOSI del CSN, ha sido la base para la contribución del CSN en el ejercicio SM2A. Este ejercicio ha sido utilizado como evaluación del desarrollo de algunas de las ideas, sugerencias, y los algoritmos detrás de la metodología ISA. Como resultado se ha obtenido un ligero aumento de la frecuencia de excedencia del daño (DEF) provocado por el aumento de potencia. Este resultado demuestra la viabilidad de la metodología ISA para obtener medidas de las variaciones en los márgenes de seguridad que han sido provocadas por modificaciones en la planta. También se ha mostrado que es especialmente adecuada en escenarios donde los eventos estocásticos o las actuaciones de recuperación o mitigación de los operadores pueden tener un papel relevante en el riesgo. Los resultados obtenidos no tienen validez más allá de la de mostrar la viabilidad de la metodología ISA. La central nuclear en la que se aplica el estudio está clausurada y la información relativa a sus análisis de seguridad es deficiente, por lo que han sido necesarias asunciones sin comprobación o aproximaciones basadas en estudios genéricos o de otras plantas. Se han establecido tres fases en el proceso de análisis: primero, obtención del árbol de sucesos dinámico de referencia; segundo, análisis de incertidumbres y obtención de los dominios de daño; y tercero, cuantificación del riesgo. Se han mostrado diversas aplicaciones de la metodología y ventajas que presenta frente al APS clásico. También se ha contribuido al desarrollo del prototipo de herramienta para la aplicación de la metodología ISA (SCAIS). ABSTRACT The Integrated Safety Analysis methodology (ISA), developed by the Consejo de Seguridad Nuclear (CSN), is being assessed in various applications encouraged by CSN. An Integrated Safety Analysis merges the evolved techniques of the usually applied safety analysis methodologies; deterministic and probabilistic. It is considered as a suitable tool for assessing risk in a Risk Informed Regulation framework, the approach under development that is being adopted on Nuclear Safety around the world. In this policy framework, the projects Safety Margin Action Plan (SMAP) and Safety Margin Assessment Application (SM2A), set up by the Committee on the Safety of Nuclear Installations (CSNI) of the Nuclear Energy Agency within the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), were aimed to obtain a methodology and its application for the integration of risk and safety margins in the assessment of the changes to the overall safety as a result of changes in the nuclear plant condition. The committee provides a forum for the exchange of technical information and cooperation among member organizations which contribute their respective approaches in research, development and engineering. The ISA methodology, proposed by CSN, specially fits with the SMAP approach that aims at obtaining Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty values of the safety variables to be compared with the safety limits. This makes it possible to obtain the exceedance frequencies of the safety limit. The ISA has the advantage over other methods of allowing the specific and discrete evaluation of the most influential uncertain parameters in the limit exceedance frequency. In this way the changes due to design or operation variation, imperceptibles or complicated to by quantified by other methods, are correctly evaluated. The ISA methodology is one of the discrete methodologies of the Dynamic PSA framework that uses the generation of dynamic event trees (DET). It is based on the Theory of Stimulated Dynamics (TSD), a simplified version of the theory of Probabilistic Dynamics that allows the risk quantification. The ISA models and simulates all the important interactions in a Nuclear Power Plant; design, operating conditions, maintenance, human actuations, stochastic events, etc. In order to that, it requires the integration of codes to obtain: Thermohydraulic and human actuations; Even trees delineation; Fault Trees and Event Trees quantification; Uncertainty analysis and risk assessment. This written dissertation narrates the application of the ISA methodology to the initiating event of the Loss of the Component Cooling System (CCWS) generating sequences of loss of reactor coolant through the seals of the reactor coolant pump (SLOCA). It is used to test the change in margins with respect to the maximum clad temperature limit (1477 K) that would be possible under a potential 10 % power up-rate effected in the pressurized water reactor of Zion NPP. The work done to achieve the thesis, fruit of the collaborative agreement of the School of Mining and Energy Engineering and the company of technological solutions Ekergy Software S.L. (NFQ Solutions) with de specialized modeling and simulation branch of the CSN, has been the basis for the contribution of the CSN in the exercise SM2A. This exercise has been used as an assessment of the development of some of the ideas, suggestions, and algorithms behind the ISA methodology. It has been obtained a slight increase in the Damage Exceedance Frequency (DEF) caused by the power up-rate. This result shows that ISA methodology allows quantifying the safety margin change when design modifications are performed in a NPP and is specially suitable for scenarios where stochastic events or human responses have an important role to prevent or mitigate the accidental consequences and the total risk. The results do not have any validity out of showing the viability of the methodology ISA. Zion NPP was retired and information of its safety analysis is scarce, so assumptions without verification or approximations based on generic studies have been required. Three phases are established in the analysis process: first, obtaining the reference dynamic event tree; second, uncertainty analysis and obtaining the damage domains; third, risk quantification. There have been shown various applications of the methodology and advantages over the classical PSA. It has also contributed to the development of the prototype tool for the implementation of the ISA methodology (SCAIS).

Relevância:

80.00% 80.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Data from the HEGRA air shower array are used to set an upper limit on the emission of gamma-radiation above 25 (18) TeV from the direction of the radio bright region DR4 within the SNR G78.2 + 2.1 of 2.5 (7.1). 10^-13 cm^-2 sec^-1. The shock front of SNR G78.2 + 2.1 probably recently overtook the molecular cloud Gong 8 which then acts as a target for the cosmic rays produced within the SNR, thus leading to the expectation of enhanced gamma-radiation. Using a model of Drury, Aharonian and Völk which assumes that SNRs are the sources of galactic cosmic rays via first order Fermi acceleration, we calculated a theoretical prediction for the gamma-ray flux from the DR4 region and compared it with our experimental flux limit. Our 'best estimate' value for the predicted flux lies a factor of about 18 above the upper limit for gamma-ray energies above 25 TeV. Possible reasons for this discrepancy are discussed.