Can profitable trading strategies be derived from investment best-sellers?

A glance along the finance shelves at any bookshop reveals a large number of books that seek to show readers how to ‘make a million’ or ‘beat the market’ with allegedly highly profitable equity trading strategies. This paper investigates whether useful trading strategies can be derived from popular books of investment strategy, with What Works on Wall Street by James P. O'Shaughnessy used as an example. Specifically, we test whether this strategy would have produced a similarly spectacular performance in the UK context as was demonstrated by the author for the US market. As part of our investigation, we highlight a general methodology for determining whether the observed superior performance of a trading rule could be attributed in part or in entirety to data mining. Overall, we find that the O'Shaughnessy rule performs reasonably well in the UK equity market, yielding higher returns than the FTSE All-Share Index, but lower returns than an equally weighted benchmark

IMF control of cusp proton emission intensity and dayside convection: implications for component and anti-parallel reconnection

We study a brightening of the Lyman-alpha emission in the cusp which occurred in response to a short-lived southward turning of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) during a period of strongly enhanced solar wind plasma concentration. The cusp proton emission is detected using the SI-12 channel of the FUV imager on the IMAGE spacecraft. Analysis of the IMF observations recorded by the ACE and Wind spacecraft reveals that the assumption of a constant propagation lag from the upstream spacecraft to the Earth is not adequate for these high time-resolution studies. The variations of the southward IMF component observed by ACE and Wind allow for the calculation of the ACE-to-Earth lag as a function of time. Application of the derived propagation delays reveals that the intensity of the cusp emission varied systematically with the IMF clock angle, the relationship being particularly striking when the intensity is normalised to allow for the variation in the upstream solar wind proton concentration. The latitude of the cusp migrated equatorward while the lagged IMF pointed southward, confirming the lag calculation and indicating ongoing magnetopause reconnection. Dayside convection, as monitored by the SuperDARN network of radars, responded rapidly to the IMF changes but lagged behind the cusp proton emission response: this is shown to be as predicted by the model of flow excitation by Cowley and Lockwood (1992). We use the numerical cusp ion precipitation model of Lockwood and Davis (1996), along with modelled Lyman-_ emission efficiency and the SI-12 instrument response, to investigate the effect of the sheath field clock angle on the acceleration of ions on crossing the dayside magnetopause. This modelling reveals that the emission commences on each reconnected field line 2–2.5min after it is opened and peaks 3–5 min after it is opened. We discuss how comparison of the Lyman-alpha intensities with oxygen emissions observed simultaneously by the SI-13 channel of the FUV instrument offers an opportunity to test whether or not the clock angle dependence is consistent with the “component” or the “anti-parallel” reconnection hypothesis.

Reconfiguration and closure of lobe flux by reconnection during northward IMF: possible evidence for signatures in cusp/cleft auroral emissions

Observations are presented of the response of the dayside cusp/cleft aurora to changes in both the clock and elevation angles of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) vector, as monitored by the WIND spacecraft. The auroral observations are made in 630 nm light at the winter solstice near magnetic noon, using an all-sky camera and a meridian-scanning photometer on the island of Spitsbergen. The dominant change was the response to a northward turning of the IMF which caused a poleward retreat of the dayside aurora. A second, higher-latitude band of aurora was seen to form following the northward turning, which is interpreted as the effect of lobe reconnection which reconfigures open flux. We suggest that this was made possible in the winter hemisphere, despite the effect of the Earth's dipole tilt, by a relatively large negative X component of the IMF. A series of five events then formed in the poleward band and these propagated in a southwestward direction and faded at the equatorward edge of the lower-latitude band as it migrated poleward. It is shown that the auroral observations are consistent with overdraped lobe flux being generated by lobe reconnection in the winter hemisphere and subsequently being re-closed by lobe reconnection in the summer hemisphere. We propose that the balance between the reconnection rates at these two sites is modulated by the IMF elevation angle, such that when the IMF points more directly northward, the summer lobe reconnection site dominates, re-closing all overdraped lobe flux and eventually becoming disconnected from the Northern Hemisphere.

Aspects of particle filtering in high-dimensional spaces

Nonlinear data assimilation is high on the agenda in all fields of the geosciences as with ever increasing model resolution and inclusion of more physical (biological etc.) processes, and more complex observation operators the data-assimilation problem becomes more and more nonlinear. The suitability of particle filters to solve the nonlinear data assimilation problem in high-dimensional geophysical problems will be discussed. Several existing and new schemes will be presented and it is shown that at least one of them, the Equivalent-Weights Particle Filter, does indeed beat the curse of dimensionality and provides a way forward to solve the problem of nonlinear data assimilation in high-dimensional systems.

Health and quality of care from older peoples' and formal caregivers' perspective

Aim: The overall aim of this thesis was to gain a deeper understanding of older people's view of health and care while dependent on community care. Furthermore to describe and compare formal caregivers' perceptions of quality of care, working conditions, competence, general health, and factors associated with quality of care from the caregivers' perspective. Method: Qualitative interviews were conducted with 19 older people in community care who were asked to describe what health and ill health((I), good and bad care meant for them (II). Data were analyzed using content analysis (I) and a phenomenological analysis (II). The formal caregivers; 70 nursing assistants (NAs) 163 enrolled nurses (ENs) and 198 registered nurses (RNs), answered a questionnaire consisting of five instruments: quality of care from the patient's perspective modified to formal caregivers, creative climate questionnaire, stress of conscience, health index, sense of coherence and items on education and competence (III). Statistical analyses were performed containing descriptive statistics, and comparisons between the occupational groups were made using Kruskal-Wallis ANOVA, Mann-Whitney U-test and Pearson's Chi-square test (III). Pearson's  product moment correlation analysis and multiple regression analysis were performed studying the associations between organizational climate, stress of conscience, competence, general health and sense of coherence with quality of care (IV). Results: The older people's health and well-being were related to their own ability to adapt to and compensate for their disabilities and was described as negative and positive poles of autonomy vs. dependence, togetherness vs. being an onlooker, security vs. insecurity and tranquility vs. disturbance (I).  The meaning of good care (II) was that the formal caregivers respected the older people as unique individuals, having the opportunity to live their lives as usual and receiving a safe and secure care. Good care could be experienced when the formal caregivers had adequate knowledge and competence in caring for older people, adequate time and continuity in the care organization (II). Formal caregivers reported higher perceived quality of care in the dimensions medical-technical competence and physical-technical conditions than in identity-oriented approach and socio-cultural atmosphere (III). In the organizational climate three of the dimensions were close to the value of a creative climate and in seven near a stagnant climate. The formal caregivers reported low rate of stress of conscience. The RNs reported to a higher degree than the NAs/ENs a need to gain more knowledge, but the NAs and the ENs more often received training during working hours. The RNs reported lower emotional well-being than the NAs/ENs (III). The formal caregivers' occupation, organizational climate and stress of conscience were associated with perceived quality of care (IV). Implications: The formal caregivers should have an awareness of the importance of kindness and respect, supporting the older people to retain control over their lives. The nursing managers should employ highly competent and adequate numbers of skilled formal caregivers, organize formal caregivers having round the clock continuity. Improvements of organizational climate and stress of conscience are of importance for good quality of care.

Mått för att mäta kodkvalitet undersystemutvecklingsprocessen

Viljan att hålla en hög kvalitet på den kod som skrivs vid utveckling av system och applikationerär inte något nytt i utvecklingsvärlden. Flera större företag använder sig av olika mått för attmäta kvaliteten på koden i sina system med målet att hålla en hög driftsäkerhet.Trafikverket är en statlig myndighet som ansvarar för driften av bland annat de system somhåller igång Sveriges järnvägsnät. Eftersom systemen fyller en viktig del i att säkra driften ochse till att tågpositioner, planering av avgångar och hantering av driftstörningar fungerar dygnetrunt för hela landet anser de att det är viktigt att sträva efter att hålla en hög kvalitet påsystemen.Syftet med det här examensarbetet var att ta reda på vilka mått som kan vara möjliga attanvända under systemutvecklingsprocessen för att mäta kvaliteten på kod och hur måtten kananvändas för att öka kvaliteten på IT-lösningar. Detta för att redan på ett tidigt stadie kunnamäta kvaliteten på den kod som skrivs i både befintliga och nyutvecklade system.Studien är en fallstudie som utfördes på Trafikverket, de olika måtten som undersöktes varcode coverage, nivån på maintainability index och antalet inrapporterade incidenter för varjesystem. Mätningar utfördes på sju av Trafikverkets system som i analysen jämfördes motantalet rapporterade incidenter. Intervjuer utfördes för att ge en bild över hur arbetssättet vidutveckling kan påverka kvaliteten. Genom litteraturstudier kom det fram ett mått som inte kundeanvändas praktiskt i det här fallet men är högst intressant, detta är cyclomatic complexity somfinns som en del av maintainability index men som även separat påverkar möjligheten att skrivaenhetstest.Resultaten av studien visar att måtten är användbara för ändamålet men bör inte användassom enskilda mått för att mäta kvalitet eftersom de fyller olika funktioner. Det är viktigt attarbetssättet runt utveckling genomförs enligt en tydlig struktur och att utvecklarna både harkunskap om hur man arbetar med enhetstest och följer kodprinciper för strukturen. Tydligakopplingar mellan nivån på code coverage och inflödet av incidenter kunde ses i de undersöktasystemen där hög code coverage ger ett lägre inflöde av incidenter. Ingen korrelation mellanmaintainability index och incidenter kunde hittas.

Två vampyrer, två filmklippare : En undersökning i hur karaktärer framställs genom klippning i filmerna Låt den rätte komma in och Let me in

Kan klippningen i en film påverka hur en karaktär framställs och uppfattas av tittaren? Syftet med den här uppsatsen är att analysera och jämföra två utvalda scener från filmen Låt den rätte komma in och de två motsvarande scenerna i remaken Let me in. Detta för att se huruvida klippningen kan påverka hur karaktärerna upplevs och vilka skillnader det finns när det gäller vilken klippteknik som använts i de båda filmerna. Med hjälp av Jens Eders analysmodell Karaktärsklockan som används vid analys av karaktärer och Roger Crittendens teorier om filmklippning, undersöker uppsatsen hur karaktärerna framställs och upplevs genom användandet av olika klipptekniker. Resultatet visar på att det går att fastställa att klippningen har haft stor påverkan hur karaktärerna i Låt den rätte komma in och Let me in uppfattas av tittaren. Det är även väldigt tydligt att klippningen och valet av olika klipptekniker skiljer sig åt mellan de två scenerna och karaktärerna har således framställts på olika sätt.

ABC news 24 and BBC world : a study of limited resources and challenging newsgathering

ABC Australia’s News 24 website proclaims: "ABC News 24 provides around the clock coverage of news events as they break at home and abroad. It’s news when you want it, on your platform - TV, mobile and online." In this article, the stations content is analysed across 24 hours of its programming and compared with the same 24 hours of programming from BBC World. The content is tested for four key values: range of stories; coverage of the big stories; competence in going live to breaking stories; and ability to add value through analysis, debate and context. The examination of the data against these four key values enables an analysis of the nature of the service and assists in assessing whether or not it is providing an enriched and different offering in a busy 24/7 media landscape.

Tempo no trabalho: a experiência dos gerentes médios

A sociologia das organizações ainda é realizada sob a construção de esquemas analíticos livres de tempo (CLARK, 1985; HASSARD, 2000; GIDDENS, 2003). No entanto, questões temporais permeiam toda e qualquer organização, o que torna o conceito de tempo de central importância para os estudos organizacionais. Com base nisso, esta pesquisa teve a ambição de abordar a dimensão temporal do trabalho nas organizações; sob a perspectiva dos indivíduos. E, dado que os gerentes médios vivenciam um duplo foco de pressão: originado da alta gerência e do nível operacional da organização, decidiu-se investigar como os gerentes médios experimentam o tempo no trabalho. Para desvendar a experiência temporal dos gerentes médios, foram analisadas, com a metodologia de análise de conteúdo, entrevistas com 20 profissionais de média gerência que trabalham em empresas que operam na cidade de São Paulo. A coleta do material de pesquisa ocorreu com entrevistas em profundidade semi-estruturadas. A análise das entrevistas sugere que embora o tempo no trabalho seja, por todos os profissionais entrevistados, definido como um recurso econômico, cuja utilização dever ser otimizada ao máximo, a experiência temporal entre os gerentes médios não é homogênea. Há fatores ambientais comuns a todos os entrevistados, que tendem a aproximar as experiências temporais dos mesmos. Tais fatores, que são a compressão do tempo, o sentido de urgência, as novas tecnologias, características intrínsecas ao papel de gerente e a organização de si próprios, das empresas e colaboradores, estão associados ao cenário econômico e social contemporâneo. No entanto, características relacionadas à idade, gênero, valores e experiências pessoais, além do segmento de atuação da empresa também impactam a experiência temporal dos gerentes médios e contribuem para a diversificação da maneira como os gerentes médios experimentam e lidam com as pressões temporais. Em síntese, a despeito dos fatores ambientais compartilhados, com destaque para a crescente compressão do tempo, a natureza humana e a impermanência dos fenômenos sociais desnudam a complexidade da experiência temporal dos gerentes médios no trabalho. E revelam que – apesar da homogeneidade, objetividade e linearidade representadas pelo relógio, ícone do tempo nas sociedades ocidentais contemporâneas – heterogeneidade, subjetividade e ciclicidade fazem parte da experiência temporal dos trabalhadores.

Brazilian equity mutual funds: A general outlook based on performance

This dissertation main goal is to overview the Brazilian equity mutual funds returns. We find that active management is not effective for Ibovespa index, since Ibovespa active funds do not outperform the Ibovespa referenced funds. However, for IBrX index, active management do outperform the passive strategy. We found that Sustainable funds returns do not outperform the market, Endowment funds show poor performance, which could indicate strong regulation imposition over endowment funds portfolios. The size of a fund shows positive correlation to mean average returns and alphas. A fund’s lifetime is positively correlated to returns and to alphas, which could be related to more risk-taking by younger managers in order to pursue higher expected returns and, consequently, bigger inflows. Younger funds tend to have lower performance probably because, in taking more risks, they do not perform as expected. In addition, we find that the decreasing trend of the alpha evolution along the time is a sign of the industry decreasing returns of scale, which entails that managers have more difficulties to beat the market portfolio. Top 10s rankings show that funds appear more than once on the top 10s, which shows persistence of funds’ performance. Finally, concerning the deciles and quartiles rankings, the frequency of appearances changes among performance measures. There are measures which, when compared to others, strongly change the top and bottom for the decile and quartile members.

Analysts’ recommendations in Brazil: do they add value?

This paper examines the value of analysts’ recommendations in Brazilian Stock Market. We studied a sample of 294 weeks of recommendations make public by the best seller newspaper in Brazil with six different investment strategies and time horizons. The main conclusion is that it is possible to beat the Brazilian market indexes Ibovespa and IBrX following the analysts’ stock recommendations. The best strategies are buying only the recommended stocks, buying the recommended stocks whose target and market prices difference is bigger than 25% and lesser or equal than 50%. The performance of the six strategies is analyzed through the use of bootstrap and Monte Carlo techniques.

Problemas de comportamento de crianças/adolescentes e dificuldades de pais/cuidadores: um estudo de caracterização

Famílias que estimulam comportamentos socialmente habilidosos parecem favorecer o desenvolvimento social de seus filhos. Assim, intervir no relacionamento dos pais parece ser uma saída para minimizar indicativos de problemas de comportamento. Para uma efetiva intervenção é recomendado especificar as demandas das pessoas que procuram por atendimento, seja através da caracterização do repertório de pais e cuidadores, seja da caracterização das dificuldades e/ou habilidades das crianças e/ou adolescentes. O objetivo da pesquisa foi o de caracterizar, através de uma Entrevista Clínica Semiestruturada, queixas e dificuldades de 59 pais/cuidadores que buscaram atendimento psicológico em um Centro de Psicologia Aplicada. Os resultados principais são: a) queixas de problemas externalizantes, tais como agressividade, desobediência e birras; b) dificuldades dos pais/cuidadores quanto às habilidades envolvidas no estabelecer limites (bater e não ter consistência) e na comunicação. Discute-se a interdependência entre os comportamentos dos adultos e crianças/adolescentes e repercussões para futuras intervenções.

Balance, executive functions and falls in elderly with Alzheimer's disease (AD): A longitudinal study

Elderly individuals with AD are more susceptible to falls, which might be associated with decrements in their executive functions and balance, among other things. We aimed to analyze the effects of a program of dual task physical activity on falls, executive functions and balance of elderly individuals with AD. We studied 21 elderly with probable AD, allocated to two groups: the training group (TG), with 10 elderly who participated in a program of dual task physical activity; and the control group (CG), with 11 elderly who were not engaged in regular practice of physical activity. The Clock Drawing Test (CDT) and the Frontal Assessment Battery (FAB) were used in the assessment of the executive functions, while the Berg Balance Scale (BBS) and the Timed Up-and-Go (TUG)-test evaluated balance. The number of falls was obtained by means of a questionnaire. We observed a better performance of the TG as regards balance and executive functions. Moreover, the lower the number of steps in the TUG scale, the higher the scores in the CDT, and in the FAB. The practice of regular physical activity with dual task seems to have contributed to the maintenance and improvement of the motor and cognitive functions of the elderly with AD. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Gait and risk of falls associated with frontal cognitive functions at different stages of Alzheimer's disease

The decline in frontal cognitive functions contributes to alterations of gait and increases the risk of falls in patients with dementia, a category which included Alzheimer's disease (AD). The objective of the present study was to compare the gait parameters and the risk of falls among patients at different stages of AD, and to relate these variables with cognitive functions. This is a cross-sectional study with 23 patients with mild and moderate AD. The Clinical Dementia Rating was used to classify the dementia severity. The kinematic parameters of gait (cadence, stride length, and stride speed) were analyzed under two conditions: (a) single task (free gait) and (b) dual task (walking and counting down). The risk of falls was evaluated using the Timed Up-and-Go test. The frontal cognitive functions were evaluated using the Frontal Assessment Battery (FAB), the Clock Drawing Test (CDT) and the Symbol Search Subtest. The patients who were at the moderate stage suffered reduced performance in their stride length and stride speed in the single task and had made more counting errors in the dual task and still had a higher fall risk. Both the mild and the moderate patients exhibited significant decreases in stride length, stride speed and cadence in the dual task. Was detected a significant correlation between CDT, FAB, and stride speed in the dual task condition. We also found a significant correlation between subtest Similarities, FAB and cadence in the dual task condition. The dual task produced changes in the kinematic parameters of gait for the mild and moderate AD patients and the gait alterations are related to frontal cognitive functions, particularly executive functions.

Índices geométricos de variabilidade da frequência cardíaca em crianças obesas e eutróficas

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)