Decision theory and real estate development: a note on uncertainty

Real estate development appraisal is a quantification of future expectations. The appraisal model relies upon the valuer/developer having an understanding of the future in terms of the future marketability of the completed development and the future cost of development. In some cases the developer has some degree of control over the possible variation in the variables, as with the cost of construction through the choice of specification. However, other variables, such as the sale price of the final product, are totally dependent upon the vagaries of the market at the completion date. To try to address the risk of a different outcome to the one expected (modelled) the developer will often carry out a sensitivity analysis on the development. However, traditional sensitivity analysis has generally only looked at the best and worst scenarios and has focused on the anticipated or expected outcomes. This does not take into account uncertainty and the range of outcomes that can happen. A fuller analysis should include examination of the uncertainties in each of the components of the appraisal and account for the appropriate distributions of the variables. Similarly, as many of the variables in the model are not independent, the variables need to be correlated. This requires a standardised approach and we suggest that the use of a generic forecasting software package, in this case Crystal Ball, allows the analyst to work with an existing development appraisal model set up in Excel (or other spreadsheet) and to work with a predetermined set of probability distributions. Without a full knowledge of risk, developers are unable to determine the anticipated level of return that should be sought to compensate for the risk. This model allows the user a better understanding of the possible outcomes for the development. Ultimately the final decision will be made relative to current expectations and current business constraints, but by assessing the upside and downside risks more appropriately, the decision maker should be better placed to make a more informed and “better”.

The impact of urban wind environments on natural ventilation

The aim of this paper is to illustrate the impact of urban wind environments when assessing the availability of natural ventilation. A numerical study of urban airflow for a complex of five building blocks located at the University of Reading, UK is presented. The computational fluid dynamics software package ANSYS was used to simulate six typical cases of urban wind environments and the potential for natural ventilation assessed. The study highlights the impact of three typical architectural forms (street canyons, semi-enclosures and courtyards) on the local wind environment. Simulation results have also been compared with experimental data collected from six locations on the building complex. The study demonstrates that ventilation strategies formed using regional weather data, may have a propensity to over-estimate the potential for natural ventilation and cooling, due to the impact of urban form which creates a unique microclimate. Characteristics of urban wind flow patterns are presented as a guideline and can be used to assess the design and performance of natural or hybrid ventilation and the opportunity for passive cooling.

A study on effect of built forms on urban wind environment by using CFD simulations

This paper presents a numerical study of urban air-flow for a group of five buildings that is located at the University of Reading in the United Kingdom. The airflow around these buildings has been simulated by using ANSYS CFD software package. In this study, the association between certain architectural forms: a street canyon, a semi-closure, and a courtyard-like space in a low-rise building complex, and the wind environment were investigated. The analysis of CFD results has provided detailed information on the wind patterns of these urban built forms. The numerical results have been compared with the experimental measurements within the building complex. The observed characteristics of urban wind pattern with respect to the built structures are presented as a guideline. This information is needed for the design and/or performance assessments of systems such as passive and low energy design approach, a natural or hybrid ventilation, and passive cooling. Also, the knowledge of urban wind patterns allows us to develop better design options for the application of renewable energy technologies within urban environment.

Advanced global optimisation for mission analysis and design

This report describes the analysis and development of novel tools for the global optimisation of relevant mission design problems. A taxonomy was created for mission design problems, and an empirical analysis of their optimisational complexity performed - it was demonstrated that the use of global optimisation was necessary on most classes and informed the selection of appropriate global algorithms. The selected algorithms were then applied to the di®erent problem classes: Di®erential Evolution was found to be the most e±cient. Considering the speci¯c problem of multiple gravity assist trajectory design, a search space pruning algorithm was developed that displays both polynomial time and space complexity. Empirically, this was shown to typically achieve search space reductions of greater than six orders of magnitude, thus reducing signi¯cantly the complexity of the subsequent optimisation. The algorithm was fully implemented in a software package that allows simple visualisation of high-dimensional search spaces, and e®ective optimisation over the reduced search bounds.

A tutorial on pseudospectral methods for computational optimal control

[English] This paper is a tutorial introduction to pseudospectral optimal control. With pseudospectral methods, a function is approximated as a linear combination of smooth basis functions, which are often chosen to be Legendre or Chebyshev polynomials. Collocation of the differential-algebraic equations is performed at orthogonal collocation points, which are selected to yield interpolation of high accuracy. Pseudospectral methods directly discretize the original optimal control problem to recast it into a nonlinear programming format. A numerical optimizer is then employed to find approximate local optimal solutions. The paper also briefly describes the functionality and implementation of PSOPT, an open source software package written in C++ that employs pseudospectral discretization methods to solve multi-phase optimal control problems. The software implements the Legendre and Chebyshev pseudospectral methods, and it has useful features such as automatic differentiation, sparsity detection, and automatic scaling. The use of pseudospectral methods is illustrated in two problems taken from the literature on computational optimal control. [Portuguese] Este artigo e um tutorial introdutorio sobre controle otimo pseudo-espectral. Em metodos pseudo-espectrais, uma funcao e aproximada como uma combinacao linear de funcoes de base suaves, tipicamente escolhidas como polinomios de Legendre ou Chebyshev. A colocacao de equacoes algebrico-diferenciais e realizada em pontos de colocacao ortogonal, que sao selecionados de modo a minimizar o erro de interpolacao. Metodos pseudoespectrais discretizam o problema de controle otimo original de modo a converte-lo em um problema de programa cao nao-linear. Um otimizador numerico e entao empregado para obter solucoes localmente otimas. Este artigo tambem descreve sucintamente a funcionalidade e a implementacao de um pacote computacional de codigo aberto escrito em C++ chamado PSOPT. Tal pacote emprega metodos de discretizacao pseudo-spectrais para resolver problemas de controle otimo com multiplas fase. O PSOPT permite a utilizacao de metodos de Legendre ou Chebyshev, e possui caractersticas uteis tais como diferenciacao automatica, deteccao de esparsidade e escalonamento automatico. O uso de metodos pseudo-espectrais e ilustrado em dois problemas retirados da literatura de controle otimo computacional.

Domestic cold pitched roofs in the UK: - effect of using different roof insulation materials

The type and thickness of insulation on the topside horizontal of cold pitched roofs has a significant role in controlling air movement, energy conservation and moisture transfer reduction through the ceiling to the loft (roof void) space. To investigate its importance, a numerical model using a HAM software package on a Matlab platform with a Simulink simulation tool has been developed using insitu measurements of airflows from the dwelling space through the ceiling to the loft of three houses of different configurations and loft space. Considering typical UK roof underlay (i.e. bituminous felt and a vapour permeable underlay), insitu measurements of the 3 houses were tested using a calibrated passive sampling technique. Using the measured airflows, the effect of air movement on three types of roof insulation (i.e. fibreglass, cellulose and foam) was modelled to investigate associated energy losses and moisture transport. The thickness of the insulation materials were varied but the ceiling airtightness and eaves gap size were kept constant. These instances were considered in order to visualize the effects of the changing parameters. In addition, two different roof underlays of varying resistances were considered and compared to access the influence of the underlay, if any, on energy conservation. The comparison of these insulation materials in relation to the other parameters showed that the type of insulation material and thickness, contributes significantly to energy conservation and moisture transfer reduction through the roof and hence of the building as a whole.

An overview of mixed-effects statistical models for second language researchers

As in any field of scientific inquiry, advancements in the field of second language acquisition (SLA) rely in part on the interpretation and generalizability of study findings using quantitative data analysis and inferential statistics. While statistical techniques such as ANOVA and t-tests are widely used in second language research, this review article provides a review of a class of newer statistical models that have not yet been widely adopted in the field, but have garnered interest in other fields of language research. The class of statistical models called mixed-effects models are introduced, and the potential benefits of these models for the second language researcher are discussed. A simple example of mixed-effects data analysis using the statistical software package R (R Development Core Team, 2011) is provided as an introduction to the use of these statistical techniques, and to exemplify how such analyses can be reported in research articles. It is concluded that mixed-effects models provide the second language researcher with a powerful tool for the analysis of a variety of types of second language acquisition data.

Assessing the performance of a building integrated BP c-Si PV system

In this study, the performance, yield and characteristics of a 16 year old photovoltaic (PV) system installation have been investigated. The technology, BP Saturn modules which were steel-blue polycrystalline silicon cells are no longer in production. A bespoke monitoring system has been designed to monitor the characteristics of 6 refurbished strings, of 18 modules connected in series. The total output of the system is configured to 6.5 kWp (series to parallel configuration). In addition to experimental results, the performance ratio (PR) of known values was simulated using PVSyst, a simulation software package. From calculations using experimental values, the PV system showed approximately 10% inferior power outputs to what would have been expected as standard test conditions. However, efficiency values in comparison to standard test conditions and the performance ratio (w75% from PVSyst simulations) over the past decade have remained practically the same. This output though very relevant to the possible performance and stability of aging cells, requires additional parametric studies to develop a more robust argument. The result presented in this paper is part of an on-going investigation into PV system aging effects.

Symmetry breaking in the genetic code: Finite groups

We investigate the possibility of interpreting the degeneracy of the genetic code, i.e., the feature that different codons (base triplets) of DNA are transcribed into the same amino acid, as the result of a symmetry breaking process, in the context of finite groups. In the first part of this paper, we give the complete list of all codon representations (64-dimensional irreducible representations) of simple finite groups and their satellites (central extensions and extensions by outer automorphisms). In the second part, we analyze the branching rules for the codon representations found in the first part by computational methods, using a software package for computational group theory. The final result is a complete classification of the possible schemes, based on finite simple groups, that reproduce the multiplet structure of the genetic code. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

MAPfastR : quantitative trait loci mapping in outbred line crosses

MAPfastR is a software package developed to analyze QTL data from inbred and outbred line-crosses. The package includes a number of modules for fast and accurate QTL analyses. It has been developed in the R language for fast and comprehensive analyses of large datasets. MAPfastR is freely available at: http://www.computationalgenetics.se/?page_id=7.

PReServ: Provenance Recording for Services

The importance of understanding the process by which a result was generated in an experiment is fundamental to science. Without such information, other scientists cannot replicate, validate, or duplicate an experiment. We define provenance as the process that led to a result. With large scale in-silico experiments, it becomes increasingly difficult for scientists to record process documentation that can be used to retrieve the provenance of a result. Provenance Recording for Services (PReServ) is a software package that allows developers to integrate process documentation recording into their applications. PReServ has been used by several applications and its performance has been benchmarked.

Numerical Simulation Of Sediment Transport And Bedmorphology Around A Hydraulic Structure On A River

Scour around hydraulic structures is a critical problem in hydraulic engineering. Under prediction of scour depth may lead to costly failures of the structure, while over prediction might result in unnecessary costs. Unfortunately, up-to-date empirical scour prediction formulas are based on laboratory experiments that are not always able to reproduce field conditions due to complicated geometry of rivers and temporal and spatial scales of a physical model. However, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) tools can perform using real field dimensions and operating conditions to predict sediment scour around hydraulic structures. In Korea, after completing the Four Major Rivers Restoration Project, several new weirs have been built across Han, Nakdong, Geum and Yeongsan Rivers. Consequently, sediment deposition and bed erosion around such structures have became a major issue in these four rivers. In this study, an application of an open source CFD software package, the TELEMAC-MASCARET, to simulate sediment transport and bed morphology around Gangjeong weir, which is the largest multipurpose weir built on Nakdong River. A real bathymetry of the river and a geometry of the weir have been implemented into the numerical model. The numerical simulation is carried out with a real hydrograph at the upstream boundary. The bedmorphology obtained from the numerical results has been validated against field observation data, and a maximum of simulated scour depth is compared with the results obtained by empirical formulas of Hoffmans. Agreement between numerical computations, observed data and empirical formulas is judged to be satisfactory on all major comparisons. The outcome of this study does not only point out the locations where deposition and erosion might take place depending on the weir gate operation, but also analyzes the mechanism of formation and evolution of scour holes after the weir gates.

Hemeroteca digital temática: socialização da informação em cinema

MEDEIROS, Rildeci; MELO, Erica S. F.; NASCIMENTO, M. S. Hemeroteca digital temática: socialização da informação em cinema.In:SEMINÁRIO NACIONAL DE BIBLIOTECAS UNIVERSITÁRIAS,15.,2008,São Paulo. Anais eletrônicos... São Paulo:CRUESP,2008. Disponível em: http://www.sbu.unicamp.br/snbu2008/anais/site/pdfs/3018.pdf

Simulação de reservatórios não convencionais para armazenamento de gás natural veicular

The investigation of viability to use containers for Natural Gas Vehicle (NGV) storage, with different geometries of commercial standards, come from necessity to join the ambient, financial and technological benefits offered by the gas combustion, to the convenience of not modify the original proposal of the automobile. The use of these current cylindrical models for storage in the converted vehicles is justified by the excellent behavior that this geometry presents about the imposed tensions for the high pressure that the related reservoirs are submitted. However, recent research directed toward application of adsorbent materials in the natural gas reservoirs had proven a substantial redusction of pressure and, consequently, a relief of the tensions in the reservoirs. However, this study considers alternative geometries for NGV reservoirs, searching the minimization of dimensions and weight, remaining capacity to resist the tensions imposed by the new pressure situation. The proposed reservoirs parameters are calculated through a mathematical study of the internal pressure according to Brazilian standards (NBR) for pressure vessels. Finally simulations of the new geometries behavior are carried through using a commercially avaible Finite Element Method (FEM) software package ALGOR® to verify of the reservoirs efficincy under the gas pressure load

A continuously differentiable upwinding scheme for the simulation of fluid flow problems

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)