Mayaro Virus Infection in Amazonia: A Multimodel Inference Approach to Risk Factor Assessment

Background: Arboviral diseases are major global public health threats. Yet, our understanding of infection risk factors is, with a few exceptions, considerably limited. A crucial shortcoming is the widespread use of analytical methods generally not suited for observational data - particularly null hypothesis-testing (NHT) and step-wise regression (SWR). Using Mayaro virus (MAYV) as a case study, here we compare information theory-based multimodel inference (MMI) with conventional analyses for arboviral infection risk factor assessment. Methodology/Principal Findings: A cross-sectional survey of anti-MAYV antibodies revealed 44% prevalence (n = 270 subjects) in a central Amazon rural settlement. NHT suggested that residents of village-like household clusters and those using closed toilet/latrines were at higher risk, while living in non-village-like areas, using bednets, and owning fowl, pigs or dogs were protective. The "minimum adequate" SWR model retained only residence area and bednet use. Using MMI, we identified relevant covariates, quantified their relative importance, and estimated effect-sizes (beta +/- SE) on which to base inference. Residence area (beta(Village) = 2.93 +/- 0.41; beta(Upland) = -0.56 +/- 0.33, beta(Riverbanks) = -2.37 +/- 0.55) and bednet use (beta = -0.95 +/- 0.28) were the most important factors, followed by crop-plot ownership (beta = 0.39 +/- 0.22) and regular use of a closed toilet/latrine (beta = 0.19 +/- 0.13); domestic animals had insignificant protective effects and were relatively unimportant. The SWR model ranked fifth among the 128 models in the final MMI set. Conclusions/Significance: Our analyses illustrate how MMI can enhance inference on infection risk factors when compared with NHT or SWR. MMI indicates that forest crop-plot workers are likely exposed to typical MAYV cycles maintained by diurnal, forest dwelling vectors; however, MAYV might also be circulating in nocturnal, domestic-peridomestic cycles in village-like areas. This suggests either a vector shift (synanthropic mosquitoes vectoring MAYV) or a habitat/habits shift (classical MAYV vectors adapting to densely populated landscapes and nocturnal biting); any such ecological/adaptive novelty could increase the likelihood of MAYV emergence in Amazonia.

Assessment of cumulative damage by using ultrasonic C-scan on carbon fiber/epoxy composites under thermal cycling

In recent years, structural composites manufactured by carbon fiber/epoxy laminates have been employed in large scale in aircraft industries. These structures require high strength under severe temperature changes of -56° until 80 °C. Regarding this scenario, the aim of this research was to reproduce thermal stress in the laminate plate developed by temperature changes and tracking possible cumulative damages on the laminate using ultrasonic C-scan inspection. The evaluation was based on attenuation signals and the C-scan map of the composite plate. The carbon fiber/epoxy plain weave laminate underwent temperatures of -60° to 80 °C, kept during 10 minutes and repeated for 1000, 2000, 3000 and 4000 times. After 1000 cycles, the specimens were inspected by C-scanning. A few changes in the laminate were observed using the inspection methodology only in specimens cycled 3000 times, or so. According to the found results, the used temperature range did not present enough conditions to cumulative damage in this type of laminate, which is in agreement with the macro - and micromechanical theory.

The assessment of change in rural landscape and the analysis of the driving forces. Proposal of a spatial model for the rural built environment

The presented study carried out an analysis on rural landscape changes. In particular the study focuses on the understanding of driving forces acting on the rural built environment using a statistical spatial model implemented through GIS techniques. It is well known that the study of landscape changes is essential for a conscious decision making in land planning. From a bibliography review results a general lack of studies dealing with the modeling of rural built environment and hence a theoretical modelling approach for such purpose is needed. The advancement in technology and modernity in building construction and agriculture have gradually changed the rural built environment. In addition, the phenomenon of urbanization of a determined the construction of new volumes that occurred beside abandoned or derelict rural buildings. Consequently there are two types of transformation dynamics affecting mainly the rural built environment that can be observed: the conversion of rural buildings and the increasing of building numbers. It is the specific aim of the presented study to propose a methodology for the development of a spatial model that allows the identification of driving forces that acted on the behaviours of the building allocation. In fact one of the most concerning dynamic nowadays is related to an irrational expansion of buildings sprawl across landscape. The proposed methodology is composed by some conceptual steps that cover different aspects related to the development of a spatial model: the selection of a response variable that better describe the phenomenon under study, the identification of possible driving forces, the sampling methodology concerning the collection of data, the most suitable algorithm to be adopted in relation to statistical theory and method used, the calibration process and evaluation of the model. A different combination of factors in various parts of the territory generated favourable or less favourable conditions for the building allocation and the existence of buildings represents the evidence of such optimum. Conversely the absence of buildings expresses a combination of agents which is not suitable for building allocation. Presence or absence of buildings can be adopted as indicators of such driving conditions, since they represent the expression of the action of driving forces in the land suitability sorting process. The existence of correlation between site selection and hypothetical driving forces, evaluated by means of modeling techniques, provides an evidence of which driving forces are involved in the allocation dynamic and an insight on their level of influence into the process. GIS software by means of spatial analysis tools allows to associate the concept of presence and absence with point futures generating a point process. Presence or absence of buildings at some site locations represent the expression of these driving factors interaction. In case of presences, points represent locations of real existing buildings, conversely absences represent locations were buildings are not existent and so they are generated by a stochastic mechanism. Possible driving forces are selected and the existence of a causal relationship with building allocations is assessed through a spatial model. The adoption of empirical statistical models provides a mechanism for the explanatory variable analysis and for the identification of key driving variables behind the site selection process for new building allocation. The model developed by following the methodology is applied to a case study to test the validity of the methodology. In particular the study area for the testing of the methodology is represented by the New District of Imola characterized by a prevailing agricultural production vocation and were transformation dynamic intensively occurred. The development of the model involved the identification of predictive variables (related to geomorphologic, socio-economic, structural and infrastructural systems of landscape) capable of representing the driving forces responsible for landscape changes.. The calibration of the model is carried out referring to spatial data regarding the periurban and rural area of the study area within the 1975-2005 time period by means of Generalised linear model. The resulting output from the model fit is continuous grid surface where cells assume values ranged from 0 to 1 of probability of building occurrences along the rural and periurban area of the study area. Hence the response variable assesses the changes in the rural built environment occurred in such time interval and is correlated to the selected explanatory variables by means of a generalized linear model using logistic regression. Comparing the probability map obtained from the model to the actual rural building distribution in 2005, the interpretation capability of the model can be evaluated. The proposed model can be also applied to the interpretation of trends which occurred in other study areas, and also referring to different time intervals, depending on the availability of data. The use of suitable data in terms of time, information, and spatial resolution and the costs related to data acquisition, pre-processing, and survey are among the most critical aspects of model implementation. Future in-depth studies can focus on using the proposed model to predict short/medium-range future scenarios for the rural built environment distribution in the study area. In order to predict future scenarios it is necessary to assume that the driving forces do not change and that their levels of influence within the model are not far from those assessed for the time interval used for the calibration.

Assessment of Alcohol Reward in Prairie Voles (Microtus ochrogaster)

The purpose of our study was to assess whether prairie voles find alcohol rewarding. Prairie voles have recently become a species of interest for alcohol studies, which have traditionally used other rodent model species including several different strains of mice and rats. The prairie vole is one of only two known rodent species that readily administers high levels of unsweetened alcohol, implicating it as a potentially effective animal model for studying alcohol abuse. However, voluntary consumption does not necessarily imply that prairie voles find it rewarding. Therefore the purpose of our study was to investigate if alcohol has rewarding properties for prairie voles using three different approaches: place conditioning, flavor conditioning, and immunohistochemistry. Furthermore, we sought to characterize their reward profile and compare it to other commonly used rodent models ¿ C57BL/6 mice, DBA/2J mice, and Sprague-Dawley rats. Place and flavor conditioning are behavioral methods that rely on the learned association between a stimulus and the effects of a drug; the drug of interest in these studies is alcohol. To assess whether prairie voles will demonstrate a conditioned preference for alcohol-paired stimuli, seven place conditioning studies were run that investigated a range of different doses, individual conditioning session durations, and trial durations. Video analysis revealed no difference in the amount of time spent on the alcohol-paired floor, suggesting no conditioned place preference for alcohol. Two flavor conditioning tests were conducted to assess whether voles would demonstrate a preference for an alcohol-paired flavored saccharin solution. Voles demonstrated reduced consumption of the alcohol-paired flavored saccharin solution, regardless of dose or flavor, when alcohol administration occurred after conditioning sessions (p=<0.001). When alcohol was administered before conditioning sessions, no difference in consumption of the alcohol-paired and saline-paired flavored saccharin solutions was seen (p=0.545). Previous studies that have documented similar behavior have hypothesized that this is an example of an anticipatory contrast effect. This theory proposes that prairie voles reduce their intake of a hedonic solution (flavored saccharin solution) in anticipation of later drug administration (alcohol). However, conditioning-based behavioral methods of studying alcohol reward are highly sensitive to the parameters of the conditioned stimulus, thus it is possible that voles will not show preference for alcohol-related stimuli, even if they do find alcohol rewarding. Immunohistochemical analysis supplemented this behavioral data by allowing us to identify specific neural regions that were directly activated in response to the acute administration of alcohol. No difference in the number of activated c-Fos neurons in the Nucleus Accumbens (NAc) core or shell was seen (p=0.3364; p=0.6698) in animals that received an acute injection of alcohol or saline. There was a significant increase in the number of activated c-Fos neurons in the Paraventricular Nucleus of the Hypothalamus (PVN) in alcohol-treated animals compared to saline-treated animals (p=0.0034). There was no difference in the pixel count of activated c-Fos neurons or in the % area activated in the Arcuate Nucleus between alcohol and saline-treated animals (p=0.4523; p=0.3304). In conclusion, the place conditioning studies that were conducted in this thesis suggest that prairie voles do not demonstrate preference or aversion towards alcohol-paired stimuli. The flavor conditioning studies suggest that prairie voles do not demonstrate aversion but rather avoidance of the alcohol-paired flavor in anticipation of future alcohol administration. The preliminary immunohistochemical data collected is inconclusive but cannot rule out the possibility of neuronal activation patterns indicative of reward. Taken together, our data indicate that prairie voles hav

Psychophysiological ambulatory assessment of affective dysregulation in borderline personality disorder

Many experts now believe that pervasive problems in affect regulation constitute the central area of dysfunction in borderline personality disorder (BPD). However, data is sparse and inconclusive. We hypothesized that patients with BPD, in contrast to healthy gender and nationality-matched controls, show a higher frequency and intensity of self-reported emotions, altered physiological indices of emotions, more complex emotions and greater problems in identifying specific emotions. We took a 24-hour psychophysiological ambulatory monitoring approach to investigate affect regulation during everyday life in 50 patients with BPD and in 50 healthy controls. To provide a typical and unmanipulated sample, we included only patients who were currently in treatment and did not alter their medication schedule. BPD patients reported more negative emotions, fewer positive emotions, and a greater intensity of negative emotions. A subgroup of non-medicated BPD patients manifested higher values of additional heart rate. Additional heart rate is that part of a heart rate increase that does not directly result from metabolic activity, and is used as an indicator of emotional reactivity. Borderline participants were more likely to report the concurrent presence of more than one emotion, and those patients who just started treatment in particular had greater problems in identifying specific emotions. Our findings during naturalistic ambulatory assessment support emotional dysregulation in BPD as defined by the biosocial theory of [Linehan, M.M., 1993. Cognitive-Behavioral Treatment of Borderline Personality Disorder. The Guildford Press, New York.] and suggest the potential utility for evaluating treatment outcome.

Formatives Selbst- und Peer-Assessment im Unterricht peripher venöser Venenpunktion

Das Lernen einer Fertigkeit durch Demonstration und anschließendes Üben wird „Modeling“ genannt. Es basiert darauf, die Diskrepanz zwischen dem Soll-Zustand (Demonstration) und dem Ist-Zustand (Üben) zu erkennen und zu beheben. Dafür ist die exakte Analyse der eigenen Fertigkeiten beim Üben unentbehrlich. Entsprechend ist auch bekannt, dass formative Evaluationen wesentlich zum erfolgreichen Lernen beitragen. Wir haben deshalb im Kurs für periphere Venenpunktion im 3. Studienjahr formatives Selbst- und Peer-Assessment eingeführt. Die Struktur des Assessment entspricht einem DOPS (dircect observation of procedural skills). DOPS stammt aus dem Arbeitsplatz-basieren Assessment und beinhaltet die Beurteilung folgender Kriterien: Vorbereitung/Nachsorge, technische Fertigkeit, Asepsis/Sicherheit, klinische Urteilsfähigkeit, Organisation/Effizienz, professionelles Verhalten, Gesamteindruck. Diese Kriterien wurden für den Unterricht konkretisiert (z.B. Vorbereitung mit Beschriftung der Röhrchen, etc.) und den Studierenden als Merkblätter ausgeteilt. Die Studierenden beurteilten ihre eigene Performance bzw. die eines Kommilitonen, gaben sich Feedback und legten individuelle Lernziele zur Verbesserung fest. Dieses Vorgehen hat den Vorteil, dass sowohl der Übende, als auch der beobachtende Kommilitone, die optimale Ausführung der jeweiligen Tätigkeit reflektieren, welches für beide eine Möglichkeit zum Lernen bietet . Bei der Evaluation des Kurses wurden die Handouts mit den Kriterien der DOPS von Teilnehmern von 9 der 10 Gruppen positiv erwähnt. Im Rahmen eines Debriefing mit den studentischen Tutoren wurde jedoch kritisch angemerkt, dass der Prozess der formativen Selbst- und Fremdevaluation den Studierenden im 3. Studienjahr nicht vertraut war. Es war für die Teilnehmer schwierig konkretes Feedback zu geben und individuelle Lernziele festzulegen. Für das kommende Jahr planen wir in Bezug auf den Kurs folgendes: Die Kriterien der korrekten Durchführung einer Fertigkeit zu formulieren wird von den Teilnehmern als hilfreich empfunden und soll deshalb beibehalten werden. Die Studierenden, die dieses Jahr an dem Kurs teilnehmen, haben bereits ein Feedbacktraining absolviert. Der Kurs kann deshalb neu an Vorkenntnisse anknüpfen. Darüber hinaus soll der Prozess der Festlegung der individuellen Lernziele in der Schulung der studentischen Tutoren des Kurses mehr Gewicht erhalten, damit die Tutoren die Teilnehmer hier gezielt unterstützen können.

Law and science: risk assessment and risk management in the WTO agreement on the application of sanitary and phytosanitary measures

Assessing and managing risks relating to the consumption of food stuffs for humans and to the environment has been one of the most complex legal issues in WTO law, ever since the Agreement on Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures was adopted at the end of the Uruguay Round and entered into force in 1995. The problem was expounded in a number of cases. Panels and the Appellate Body adopted different philosophies in interpreting the agreement and the basic concept of risk assessment as defined in Annex A para. 4 of the Agreement. Risk assessment entails fundamental question on law and science. Different interpretations reflect different underlying perceptions of science and its relationship to the law. The present thesis supported by the Swiss National Research Foundation undertakes an in-depth analysis of these underlying perceptions. The author expounds the essence and differences of positivism and relativism in philosophy and natural sciences. He clarifies the relationship of fundamental concepts such as risk, hazards and probability. This investigation is a remarkable effort on the part of lawyer keen to learn more about the fundamentals based upon which the law – often unconsciously – is operated by the legal profession and the trade community. Based upon these insights, he turns to a critical assessment of jurisprudence both of panels and the Appellate Body. Extensively referring and discussing the literature, he deconstructs findings and decisions in light of implied and assumed underlying philosophies and perceptions as to the relationship of law and science, in particular in the field of food standards. Finding that both positivism and relativism does not provide adequate answers, the author turns critical rationalism and applies the methodologies of falsification developed by Karl R. Popper. Critical rationalism allows combining discourse in science and law and helps preparing the ground for a new approach to risk assessment and risk management. Linking the problem to the doctrine of multilevel governance the author develops a theory allocating risk assessment to international for a while leaving the matter of risk management to national and democratically accountable government. While the author throughout the thesis questions the possibility of separating risk assessment and risk management, the thesis offers new avenues which may assist in structuring a complex and difficult problem

The utility of rapid participatory appraisal for community assessment, diagnosis, and policy development

The selection of a model to guide the understanding and resolution of community problems is an important issue relating to the foundation of public health practice: assessment, policy development, and assurance. Many assessment models produce a diagnosis of community weaknesses, but fail to promote planning and interventions. Rapid Participatory Appraisal (RPA) is a participatory action research model which regards assessment as the first step in the problem solving process, and claims to achieve assessment and policy development within limited resources of time and money. Literature documenting the fulfillment of these claims, and thereby supporting the utility of the model, is relatively sparse and difficult to obtain. Very few articles discuss the changes resulting from RPA assessments in urban areas, and those that do describe studies conducted outside the U.S.A. ^ This study examines the utility of the RPA model and its underlying theories: systems theory, grounded theory, and principles of participatory change, as illustrated by the case study of a community assessment conducted for the Texas Diabetes Institute (TDI), San Antonio, Texas, and subsequent outcomes. Diabetes has a high prevalence and is a major issue in San Antonio. Faculty and students conducted the assessment by informal collaboration between two nursing and public health assessment courses, providing practical student experiences. The study area was large, and the flexibility of the model tested by its use in contiguous sub-regions, reanalyzing aggregated results for the study area. Official TDI reports, and a mail survey of agency employees, described policy development resulting from community diagnoses revealed by the assessment. ^ The RPA model met the criteria for utility from the perspectives of merit, worth, efficiency, and effectiveness. The RPA model best met the agencies' criteria (merit), met the data needs of TDI in this particular situation (worth), provided valid results within budget, time, and personnel constraints (efficiency), and stimulated policy development by TDI (effectiveness). ^ The RPA model appears to have utility for community assessment, diagnosis, and policy development in circumstances similar to the TDI diabetes study. ^

FAMILY MEDICINE RESIDENT SURVEY ON HEALTH PROMOTION (PERSONAL EXPECTATIONS, BEHAVIORS, PERCEIVED SELF-EFFICACY, COGNITIVE ASSESSMENT, OUTCOME EXPECTANCY)

This study was designed to test the theoretical predictors of personal efficacy expectations among family medicine resident physicians for helping their patients change thirteen high risk health behaviors. A survey questionnaire was sent to 781 family medicine residents in the six state south central region. The response rate was 60 percent. The hypothesized relationship between lower levels of difficulty and higher personal efficacy expectations was supported by the data. Effort was a significant predictor of perceived self efficacy for health behaviors considered less difficult to change. Situational support did not prove to be a significant predictor for many of the health behaviors. Rate and pattern of success were consistent and significant predictors of perceived self efficacy for helping patients change all thirteen of the health behaviors. Modeling of effective methods by faculty was a significant predictor of efficacy expectations for several but not all of the behaviors. Personal modeling was a significant predictor of perceived efficacy for helping patients change behaviors related to alcohol misuse and exercise. The respondents personally modeled positive health behaviors more consistently than their older colleagues or the general population.^ The results of this study lend substantially to the usefulness of the cognitive-behavioral theory of perceived self efficacy and provide a mechanism for assessing the predictors of personal efficacy expectations of family medicine resident physicians. The findings are expected to have direct implications for faculty to institute systematic programs of interventions designed to increase residents' perceptions of efficacy in facilitating more positive health behaviors among their patients. ^

Q method factor analysis of stakeholder social perspectives of the effectiveness of Environmental Impact Assessment public participation in the Western Cape, South Africa

Public participation is an integral part of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA), and as such, has been incorporated into regulatory norms. Assessment of the effectiveness of public participation has remained elusive however. This is partly due to the difficulty in identifying appropriate effectiveness criteria. This research uses Q methodology to discover and analyze stakeholder's social perspectives of the effectiveness of EIAs in the Western Cape, South Africa. It considers two case studies (Main Road and Saldanha Bay EIAs) for contextual participant perspectives of the effectiveness based on their experience. It further considers the more general opinion of provincial consent regulator staff at the Department of Environmental Affairs and the Department of Planning (DEA&DP). Two main themes of investigation are drawn from the South African National Environmental Management Act imperative for effectiveness: firstly, the participation procedure, and secondly, the stakeholder capabilities necessary for effective participation. Four theoretical frameworks drawn from planning, politics and EIA theory are adapted to public participation and used to triangulate the analysis and discussion of the revealed social perspectives. They consider citizen power in deliberation, Habermas' preconditions for the Ideal Speech Situation (ISS), a Foucauldian perspective of knowledge, power and politics, and a Capabilities Approach to public participation effectiveness. The empirical evidence from this research shows that the capacity and contextual constraints faced by participants demand the legislative imperatives for effective participation set out in the NEMA. The implementation of effective public participation has been shown to be a complex, dynamic and sometimes nebulous practice. The functional level of participant understanding of the process was found to be significantly wide-ranging with consequences of unequal and dissatisfied stakeholder engagements. Furthermore, the considerable variance of stakeholder capabilities in the South African social context, resulted in inequalities in deliberation. The social perspectives revealed significant differences in participant experience in terms of citizen power in deliberation. The ISS preconditions are highly contested in both the Saldanha EIA case study and the DEA&DP social perspectives. Only one Main Road EIA case study social perspective considered Foucault's notion of governmentality as a reality in EIA public participation. The freedom of control of ones environment, based on a Capabilities approach, is a highly contested notion. Although agreed with in principle, all of the social perspectives indicate that contextual and capacity realities constrain its realisation. This research has shown that Q method can be applied to EIA public participation in South Africa and, with the appropriate research or monitoring applications it could serve as a useful feedback tool to inform best practice public participation.