Can sentiment surveys pre-empt real estate market activities?

We evaluate a number of real estate sentiment indices to ascertain current and forward-looking information content that may be useful for forecasting the demand and supply activities. Our focus lies on sector-specific surveys targeting the players from the supply-side of both residential and non-residential real estate markets. Analyzing the dynamic relationships within a Vector Auto-Regression (VAR) framework, we test the efficacy of these indices by comparing them with other coincident indicators in predicting real estate returns. Overall, our analysis suggests that sentiment indicators convey important information which should be embedded in the modeling exercise to predict real estate market returns. Generally, sentiment indices show better information content than broad economic indicators. The goodness of fit of our models is higher for the residential market than for the non-residential real estate sector. The impulse responses, in general, conform to our theoretical expectations. Variance decompositions and out-of-sample predictions generally show desired contribution and reasonable improvement respectively, thus upholding our hypothesis. Quite remarkably, consistent with the theory, the predictability swings when we look through different phases of the cycle. This perhaps suggests that, e.g. during recessions, market players’ expectations may be more accurate predictor of the future performances, conceivably indicating a ‘negative’ information processing bias and thus conforming to the precautionary motive of consumer behaviour.

File Transfer Protocol

The discourse surrounding the virtual has moved away from the utopian thinking accompanying the rise of the Internet in the 1990s. The Cyber-gurus of the last decades promised a technotopia removed from materiality and the confines of the flesh and the built environment, a liberation from old institutions and power structures. But since then, the virtual has grown into a distinct yet related sphere of cultural and political production that both parallels and occasionally flows over into the old world of material objects. The strict dichotomy of matter and digital purity has been replaced more recently with a more complex model where both the world of stuff and the world of knowledge support, resist and at the same time contain each other. Online social networks amplify and extend existing ones; other cultural interfaces like youtube have not replaced the communal experience of watching moving images in a semi-public space (the cinema) or the semi-private space (the family living room). Rather the experience of viewing is very much about sharing and communicating, offering interpretations and comments. Many of the web’s strongest entities (Amazon, eBay, Gumtree etc.) sit exactly at this juncture of applying tools taken from the knowledge management industry to organize the chaos of the material world along (post-)Fordist rationality. Since the early 1990s there have been many artistic and curatorial attempts to use the Internet as a platform of producing and exhibiting art, but a lot of these were reluctant to let go of the fantasy of digital freedom. Storage Room collapses the binary opposition of real and virtual space by using online data storage as a conduit for IRL art production. The artworks here will not be available for viewing online in a 'screen' environment but only as part of a downloadable package with the intention that the exhibition could be displayed (in a physical space) by any interested party and realised as ambitiously or minimally as the downloader wishes, based on their means. The artists will therefore also supply a set of instructions for the physical installation of the work alongside the digital files. In response to this curatorial initiative, File Transfer Protocol invites seven UK based artists to produce digital art for a physical environment, addressing the intersection between the virtual and the material. The files range from sound, video, digital prints and net art, blueprints for an action to take place, something to be made, a conceptual text piece, etc. About the works and artists: Polly Fibre is the pseudonym of London-based artist Christine Ellison. Ellison creates live music using domestic devices such as sewing machines, irons and slide projectors. Her costumes and stage sets propose a physical manifestation of the virtual space that is created inside software like Photoshop. For this exhibition, Polly Fibre invites the audience to create a musical composition using a pair of amplified scissors and a turntable. http://www.pollyfibre.com John Russell, a founding member of 1990s art group Bank, is an artist, curator and writer who explores in his work the contemporary political conditions of the work of art. In his digital print, Russell collages together visual representations of abstract philosophical ideas and transforms them into a post apocalyptic landscape that is complex and banal at the same time. www.john-russell.org The work of Bristol based artist Jem Nobel opens up a dialogue between the contemporary and the legacy of 20th century conceptual art around questions of collectivism and participation, authorship and individualism. His print SPACE concretizes the representation of the most common piece of Unicode: the vacant space between words. In this way, the gap itself turns from invisible cipher to sign. www.jemnoble.com Annabel Frearson is rewriting Mary Shelley's Frankenstein using all and only the words from the original text. Frankenstein 2, or the Monster of Main Stream, is read in parts by different performers, embodying the psychotic character of the protagonist, a mongrel hybrid of used language. www.annabelfrearson.com Darren Banks uses fragments of effect laden Holywood films to create an impossible space. The fictitious parts don't add up to a convincing material reality, leaving the viewer with a failed amalgamation of simulations of sophisticated technologies. www.darrenbanks.co.uk FIELDCLUB is collaboration between artist Paul Chaney and researcher Kenna Hernly. Chaney and Hernly developed together a project that critically examines various proposals for the management of sustainable ecological systems. Their FIELDMACHINE invites the public to design an ideal agricultural field. By playing with different types of crops that are found in the south west of England, it is possible for the user, for example, to create a balanced, but protein poor, diet or to simply decide to 'get rid' of half the population. The meeting point of the Platonic field and it physical consequences, generates a geometric abstraction that investigates the relationship between modernist utopianism and contemporary actuality. www.fieldclub.co.uk Pil and Galia Kollectiv, who have also curated the exhibition are London-based artists and run the xero, kline & coma gallery. Here they present a dialogue between two computers. The conversation opens with a simple text book problem in business studies. But gradually the language, mimicking the application of game theory in the business sector, becomes more abstract. The two interlocutors become adversaries trapped forever in a competition without winners. www.kollectiv.co.uk

Maximin SNR beamforming strategies for two-way relay channels

In this letter, we consider beamforming strategies in amplified-and-forward (AF) two-way relay channels, where two terminals and the relay are equipped with multiple antennas. Our aim is to optimize the worse end-to-end signal-to-noise ratio of the two links so that the reliability of both terminals can be guaranteed. We show that the optimization problem can be recast as a generalized fractional programing and be solved by using the Dinkelbach-type procedure combined with semidefinite programming. Simulation results confirm the efficiency of the proposed strategies.

An infrared desert dust index for the Along-Track Scanning Radiometers

A new aerosol index for the Along-Track Scanning Radiometers (ATSRs) is presented that provides a means to detect desert dust contamination in infrared SST retrievals. The ATSR Saharan dust index (ASDI) utilises only the thermal infrared channels and may therefore be applied consistently to the entire ATSR data record (1991 to present), for both day time and night time observations. The derivation of the ASDI is based on a principal component (PC) analysis (PCA) of two unique pairs of channel brightness temperature differences (BTDs). In 2-D space (i.e. BTD vs BTD), it is found that the loci of data unaffected by aerosol are confined to a single axis of variability. In contrast, the loci of aerosol-contaminated data fall off-axis, shifting in a direction that is approximately orthogonal to the clear-sky axis. The ASDI is therefore defined to be the second PC, where the first PC accounts for the clear-sky variability. The primary ASDI utilises the ATSR nadir and forward-view observations at 11 and 12 μm (ASDI2). A secondary, three-channel nadir-only ASDI (ASDI3) is also defined for situations where data from the forward view are not available. Empirical and theoretical analyses suggest that ASDI is well correlated with aerosol optical depth (AOD: correlation r is typically > 0.7) and provides an effective tool for detecting desert mineral dust. Overall, ASDI2 is found to be more effective than ASDI3, with the latter being sensitive only to very high dust loading. In addition, use of ASDI3 is confined to night time observations as it relies on data from the 3.7 μm channel, which is sensitive to reflected solar radiation. This highlights the benefits of having data from both a nadir- and a forward-view for this particular approach to aerosol detection.

Video stimuli reduce object-directed imitation accuracy: a novel two-person motion-tracking approach

Imitation is an important form of social behavior, and research has aimed to discover and explain the neural and kinematic aspects of imitation. However, much of this research has featured single participants imitating in response to pre-recorded video stimuli. This is in spite of findings that show reduced neural activation to video vs. real life movement stimuli, particularly in the motor cortex. We investigated the degree to which video stimuli may affect the imitation process using a novel motion tracking paradigm with high spatial and temporal resolution. We recorded 14 positions on the hands, arms, and heads of two individuals in an imitation experiment. One individual freely moved within given parameters (moving balls across a series of pegs) and a second participant imitated. This task was performed with either simple (one ball) or complex (three balls) movement difficulty, and either face-to-face or via a live video projection. After an exploratory analysis, three dependent variables were chosen for examination: 3D grip position, joint angles in the arm, and grip aperture. A cross-correlation and multivariate analysis revealed that object-directed imitation task accuracy (as represented by grip position) was reduced in video compared to face-to-face feedback, and in complex compared to simple difficulty. This was most prevalent in the left-right and forward-back motions, relevant to the imitator sitting face-to-face with the actor or with a live projected video of the same actor. The results suggest that for tasks which require object-directed imitation, video stimuli may not be an ecologically valid way to present task materials. However, no similar effects were found in the joint angle and grip aperture variables, suggesting that there are limits to the influence of video stimuli on imitation. The implications of these results are discussed with regards to previous findings, and with suggestions for future experimentation.

Large deviations of Rouse polymer chain: first passage problem

The purpose of this paper is to investigate several analytical methods of solving first passage (FP) problem for the Rouse model, a simplest model of a polymer chain. We show that this problem has to be treated as a multi-dimensional Kramers' problem, which presents rich and unexpected behavior. We first perform direct and forward-flux sampling (FFS) simulations, and measure the mean first-passage time $\tau(z)$ for the free end to reach a certain distance $z$ away from the origin. The results show that the mean FP time is getting faster if the Rouse chain is represented by more beads. Two scaling regimes of $\tau(z)$ are observed, with transition between them varying as a function of chain length. We use these simulations results to test two theoretical approaches. One is a well known asymptotic theory valid in the limit of zero temperature. We show that this limit corresponds to fully extended chain when each chain segment is stretched, which is not particularly realistic. A new theory based on the well known Freidlin-Wentzell theory is proposed, where dynamics is projected onto the minimal action path. The new theory predicts both scaling regimes correctly, but fails to get the correct numerical prefactor in the first regime. Combining our theory with the FFS simulations lead us to a simple analytical expression valid for all extensions and chain lengths. One of the applications of polymer FP problem occurs in the context of branched polymer rheology. In this paper, we consider the arm-retraction mechanism in the tube model, which maps exactly on the model we have solved. The results are compared to the Milner-McLeish theory without constraint release, which is found to overestimate FP time by a factor of 10 or more.

A Broad-spectrum mer Operon in a Multi-drug Resistant Strain of the Fish Pathogen, Aeromonas salmonicida.

Aeromonas salmonicida AS03, a potential fish pathogen, was isolated from Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar, in 2003. This strain was found to be resistant to ≥1000 mM HgCl2 and ≥32 mM phenylmercuric acetate as well as multiple antimicrobials. Mercury (Hg) and antibiotic resistance genes are often located on the same mobile genetic elements, so the genetic determinants of both resistances and the possibility of horizontal gene transfer were examined. Specific PCR primers were used to amplify and sequence distinctive regions of the mer operon. A. salmonicida AS03 was found to have a pDU1358-like broad-spectrum mer operon, containing merB as well as merA, merD, merP, merR and merT, most similar to Klebsiella pneumonaie plasmid pRMH760. To our knowledge, the mer operon has never before been documented in Aeromonas spp. PCR and gene sequencing were used to identify class 1 integron associated antibiotic resistance determinants and the Tet A tetracycline resistance gene. The transposase and resolvase genes of Tn1696 were identified through PCR and sequencing with Tn21 specific PCR primers. We provide phenotypic and genotypic evidence that the mer operon, the aforementioned antibiotic resistances, and the Tn1696 transposition module are located on a single plasmid or conjugative transposon that can be transferred to E. coli DH5α through conjugation in the presence of low level Hg and absence of any antibiotic selective pressure. Additionally, the presence of low-level Hg or chloramphenicol in the mating media was found to stimulate conjugation, significantly increasing the transfer frequency of conjugation above the transfer frequency measured with mating media lacking both antibiotics and Hg. This research demonstrates that mercury indirectly selects for the dissemination of the antibiotic resistance genes of A. salmonicida AS03.

A broad-spectrum mer operon in a multi-drug resistant strain of the fish pathogen, Aeromonas salmonicida

Aeromonas salmonicida AS03, a potential fish pathogen, was isolated from Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar, in 2003. This strain was found to be resistant to ≥1000 mM HgCl2 and ≥32 mM phenylmercuric acetate as well as multiple antimicrobials. Mercury (Hg) and antibiotic resistance genes are often located on the same mobile genetic elements, so the genetic determinants of both resistances and the possibility of horizontal gene transfer were examined. Specific PCR primers were used to amplify and sequence distinctive regions of the mer operon. A. salmonicida AS03 was found to have a pDU1358-like broad-spectrum mer operon, containing merB as well as merA, merD, merP, merR and merT, most similar to Klebsiella pneumonaie plasmid pRMH760. To our knowledge, the mer operon has never before been documented in Aeromonas spp. PCR and gene sequencing were used to identify class 1 integron associated antibiotic resistance determinants and the Tet A tetracycline resistance gene. The transposase and resolvase genes of Tn1696 were identified through PCR and sequencing with Tn21 specific PCR primers. We provide phenotypic and genotypic evidence that the mer operon, the aforementioned antibiotic resistances, and the Tn1696 transposition module are located on a single plasmid or conjugative transposon that can be transferred to E. coli DH5α through conjugation in the presence of low level Hg and absence of any antibiotic selective pressure. Additionally, the presence of low-level Hg or chloramphenicol in the mating media was found to stimulate conjugation, significantly increasing the transfer frequency of conjugation above the transfer frequency measured with mating media lacking both antibiotics and Hg. This research demonstrates that mercury indirectly selects for the dissemination of the antibiotic resistance genes of A. salmonicida AS03.

Relevância das diferenças entre contratos futuros e a termo: o caso do trio

Visando estudar as diferenças entre contratos futuros e contratos a termo no mercado cambial brasileiro, este trabalho foca no contrato de Dólar Futuro negociado na BM&FBOVESPA que, para vencimentos sem liquidez, é marcado a mercado pelo preço teórico dos contratos a termo. Uma simulação por Monte Carlo de uma carteira hedgeada contendo contratos de Dólar Futuro, DI Futuro e DDI Futuro mostra claramente que essa metodologia de marcação a mercado deveria ao menos ser revista

Making decisions in the absence of clear facts: a historical perspective

Recently, a claim has been made that executive decisions makers, far from being fact collectors, are actually fact users and integrators. As such, the claim continues, executive decision makers need help in understanding how to interpret facts, as well as guidance in making decisions in the absence of clear facts. This report justifies this claim against the backdrop of the modern history of decision making, from 1956 to the present. The historical excursion serves to amplify and clarify the claim, as well as to develop a theoretical framework for making decisions in the absence of clear facts. Two essential issues are identified that impact upon decision making in the absence of clear facts, as well criteria for decision making effectiveness under such circumstances. Methodological requirements and practical objectives round off the theoretical framework. The historical analysis enables the identification of one particular established methodology as claiming to meet the methodological requirements of the theoretical framework. Since the methodology has yet to be tried on information-poor situations, a further project is proposed that will test its validity.

Glia-Pinealocyte Network: The Paracrine Modulation of Melatonin Synthesis by Tumor Necrosis Factor (TNF)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Expansão urbana de Mossoró :(período de 1980 a 2004)

The purpose of this Academic Work is to identify the process of urban expansion of Mossoro city, connect them with the economy that moves the society of Mossoro. This analysis is about the period from 1980 to 2004 and the economy activities selected are compose the structure of the Mossoro' s life, fixing shapes, functions and contents of the city territory, especially in its urban space to understand the present process of urban expansion and its relations with the dynamic of the city we recall history of this territory, wich as a urban word, connect the changes with the primary economy actives - commerce and sea salt extraction. ln this relation between the present process of urban expansion and the dynamic of the city economy, the economy activities studies where the sea salt extraction, and irrigated fruit crops organizes the space so they can be viable in all stages - production, trade and circulation - to be viable they change, amplify and build a urban space together with public policy, that also increases with the arrival of new inhabitant, service structure, mount by the public administration as well as by private resources. This work point out the needs of a development a new main plan for Mossoro, that will reorganize it's territory, but also grant the needs of its society, wich desires a more given city, where citizenship will be exercise with dignity

Caracterização do Xote e do Baião dançados no interior do Estado de São Paulo

Ballroom dance and Forro are part of Brazilian culture, and Xote and Baiao are part of Forro. The aim of this study was to diagramate the dances Xote and Baiao they are danced inside São Paulo State and to describe rhythmly these movements. It was observed and filmed several college couples dancing Xote and Baiao for analysis and description of the movements of the dances, by a discursive way and by diagrams. It was identified two basic structures ("Lateral Basic Step" and "Forward and Back Basic Step"), and variation steps "Open" and "Change of places with Turn", very used by couples.

The upgraded DO detector

The DO experiment enjoyed a very successful data-collection run at the Fermilab Tevatron collider between 1992 and 1996. Since then, the detector has been upgraded to take advantage of improvements to the Tevatron and to enhance its physics capabilities. We describe the new elements of the detector, including the silicon microstrip tracker, central fiber tracker, solenoidal magnet, preshower detectors, forward muon detector, and forward proton detector. The uranium/liquid -argon calorimeters and central muon detector, remaining from Run 1, are discussed briefly. We also present the associated electronics, triggering, and data acquisition systems, along with the design and implementation of software specific to DO. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Efeitos da manipulação do estímulo visual e da intenção na oscilação postural de idosas

Este estudo investigou a influência de características do estímulo visual e o efeito da intenção nas respostas do controle postural frente à manipulação visual de adultas idosas. As 20 participantes permaneceram em pé em uma sala móvel durante sete tentativas com duração de 1 minuto cada, olhando para um alvo fixo, medindo-se sua oscilação corporal. Na primeira tentativa não houve qualquer movimento da sala, porém a partir da segunda a sala foi movimentada no sentido ântero-posterior. Para dez participantes, a velocidade de pico da movimentação foi de 0,6 cm/s e, para as demais, de 1,0 cm/s. A partir da quinta tentativa, as participantes foram informadas do movimento da sala e orientadas a resistir à movimentação. Os resultados indicam que a oscilação corporal das idosas é induzida pelo movimento da sala móvel. Intenção e alteração da característica do estímulo visual reduzem a influência da informação visual na oscilação corporal, mas a manipulação de propriedade do estímulo (neste caso, velocidade), é menos efetiva que a intenção. Essa maior dependência da intenção para alterar a influência de um estímulo sensorial no controle postural indica que o funcionamento do sistema de controle postural em idosos não possibilita ajustes automáticos de respostas posturais frente a pequenas variações das condições ambientais. Iinformações sobre tais variações podem ser direcionadas de forma a compensar essa diferença.