Pupil constriction can alter the accuracy of dark room provocative test.

BACKGROUND: Primary angle-closure glaucoma (PACG) is a major cause of visual morbidity in East Asia. Dark-room provocative test (DRPT) has been used to determine which narrow angles have the risk to develop angle closure. However, the accuracy of DRPT might be altered because that after emerging from the dark room, the configuration of the angle is affected by the light of the slit-lamp and the appositionally closed angle reopens. The aim of this study was to examine the pupillary diameter in different light conditions and use it as a parameter to assess the accuracy of dark-room provocative test. METHODS: Patients with suspected primary angle-closure glaucoma undergoing DRPT were recruited. The anterior chamber angle was examined by anterior segment optical coherence tomography under the following conditions: (1) in standard room illumination; (2) after short-term dark-adaptation and (3) after DRPT. Mean values of pupil size and numbers of appositionally closed angle under different conditions were compared. RESULTS: A total of 47 eyes of 47 patients were analyzed. The pupil size after DRPT was smaller than that after short-term dark-adaptation (P < 0.001) and smaller than that in standard room illumination (P = 0.026). The numbers of appositionally closed angles after short-term dark-adaptation were significantly larger than those after DRPT (P < 0.001). There was no significant difference between the numbers of appositionally closed angles in standard room illumination and after DRPT (P = 0.157). CONCLUSIONS: Constriction of pupil size immediately after prolonged dark room provocative test may lead to change in the angle configuration, which may lead to false negative results. We suggest a modified protocol of recording intraocular pressure immediately after DRPT and performing gonioscopy following short-term dark adaptation to improve the accuracy of angle closure assessment.

Validating the accuracy of a model to predict the onset of myopia in children.

PURPOSE: To assess the sensitivity and specificity of models predicting myopia onset among ethnically Chinese children. METHODS: Visual acuity, height, weight, biometry (A-scan, keratometry), and refractive error were assessed at baseline and 3 years later using the same equipment and protocol in primary schools in Xiamen (China) and Singapore. A regression model predicting the onset of myopia < -0.75 diopters (D) after 3 years in either eye among Xiamen children was validated with Singapore data. RESULTS: Baseline data were collected from 236 Xiamen children (mean age, 7.82 ± 0.63 years) and from 1979 predominantly Chinese children in Singapore (7.83 ± 0.84 years). Singapore children were significantly taller and heavier, and had more myopia (31.4% vs. 6.36% < -0.75 D in either eye, P < 0.001) and longer mean axial length. Three-year follow-up was available for 80.0% of Xiamen children and 83.1% in Singapore. For Xiamen, the area under the receiver-operator curve (AUC) in a model including ocular biometry, height, weight, and presenting visual acuity was 0.974 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.945-0.997). In Singapore, the same model achieved sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value of 0.844, 0.650, and 0.669, with an AUC of 0.815 (95% CI, 0.791-0.839). CONCLUSIONS: Accuracy in predicting myopia onset based on simple measurements may be sufficient to make targeted early intervention practical in settings such as Singapore with high myopia prevalence. Models based on cohorts with a greater prevalence of high myopia than that in Xiamen could be used to assess accuracy of models predicting more severe forms of myopia.

An evaluation of the accuracy of models for the determination of the weighted mean temperature of the atmosphere

The estimates of the zenith wet delay resulting from the analysis of data from space techniques, such as GPS and VLBI, have a strong potential in climate modeling and weather forecast applications. In order to be useful to meteorology, these estimates have to be converted to precipitable water vapor, a process that requires the knowledge of the weighted mean temperature of the atmosphere, which varies both in space and time. In recent years, several models have been proposed to predict this quantity. Using a database of mean temperature values obtained by ray-tracing radiosonde profiles of more than 100 stations covering the globe, and about 2.5 year’s worth of data, we have analyzed several of these models. Based on data from the European region, we have concluded that the models provide identical levels of precision, but different levels of accuracy. Our results indicate that regionally-optimized models do not provide superior performance compared to the global models.

Improvement in the Accuracy of Back Trajectories Using WRF to Identify Pollen Sources in Southern Iberian Peninsula

Airborne pollen transport at micro-, meso-gamma and meso-beta scales must be studied by atmospheric models, having special relevance in complex terrain. In these cases, the accuracy of these models is mainly determined by the spatial resolution of the underlying meteorological dataset. This work examines how meteorological datasets determine the results obtained from atmospheric transport models used to describe pollen transport in the atmosphere. We investigate the effect of the spatial resolution when computing backward trajectories with the HYSPLIT model. We have used meteorological datasets from the WRF model with 27, 9 and 3 km resolutions and from the GDAS files with 1 ° resolution. This work allows characterizing atmospheric transport of Olea pollen in a region with complex flows. The results show that the complex terrain affects the trajectories and this effect varies with the different meteorological datasets. Overall, the change from GDAS to WRF-ARW inputs improves the analyses with the HYSPLIT model, thereby increasing the understanding the pollen episode. The results indicate that a spatial resolution of at least 9 km is needed to simulate atmospheric flows that are considerable affected by the relief of the landscape. The results suggest that the appropriate meteorological files should be considered when atmospheric models are used to characterize the atmospheric transport of pollen on micro-, meso-gamma and meso-beta scales. Furthermore, at these scales, the results are believed to be generally applicable for related areas such as the description of atmospheric transport of radionuclides or in the definition of nuclear-radioactivity emergency preparedness.

Validation of the needle targeting accuracy of a MRI/TRUS- image-guided system for transperineal prostate cancer biopsy

Multi-parametric magnetic resonance imaging (mp-MRI) has become an increasingly important method for detecting and treating prostate cancer. Transrectal ultrasound (TRUS) is the most commonly used method for guiding prostate needle biopsy and remains the gold standard for diagnosis of prostate cancer. MRI-to-TRUS image reg- istration is an important technology for enabling computer-assisted targeting of the majority of prostate lesions that are visible in MRI but not independently distinguishable in TRUS images. The aim of this study was to estimate the needle placement accuracy of an image guidance system (SmartTargetÒ), developed by our research group, using a surgical training phantom.

An Extension of Estimation of Domain of Attraction for Fractional Order Linear System Subject to Saturation Control

This paper employs the Lyapunov direct method for the stability analysis of fractional order linear systems subject to input saturation. A new stability condition based on saturation function is adopted for estimating the domain of attraction via ellipsoid approach. To further improve this estimation, the auxiliary feedback is also supported by the concept of stability region. The advantages of the proposed method are twofold: (1) it is straightforward to handle the problem both in analysis and design because of using Lyapunov method, (2) the estimation leads to less conservative results. A numerical example illustrates the feasibility of the proposed method.

The accuracy of the escrowed dividend model on the value of European options on a stock paying discrete dividend

This project characterizes the accuracy of the escrowed dividend model on the value of European options on a stock paying discrete dividend. A description of the escrowed dividend model is provided, and a comparison between this model and the benchmark model is realized. It is concluded that options on stocks with either low volatility, low dividend yield, low ex-dividend to maturity ratio or that are deep in or out of the money are reasonably priced with the escrowed dividend model.

Improving accuracy of inflation forecasts using macroeconomic information

This thesis examines the effects of macroeconomic factors on inflation level and volatility in the Euro Area to improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts with econometric modelling. Inflation aggregates for the EU as well as inflation levels of selected countries are analysed, and the difference between these inflation estimates and forecasts are documented. The research proposes alternative models depending on the focus and the scope of inflation forecasts. I find that models with a Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) in mean process have better explanatory power for inflation variance compared to the regular GARCH models. The significant coefficients are different in EU countries in comparison to the aggregate EU-wide forecast of inflation. The presence of more pronounced GARCH components in certain countries with more stressed economies indicates that inflation volatility in these countries are likely to occur as a result of the stressed economy. In addition, other economies in the Euro Area are found to exhibit a relatively stable variance of inflation over time. Therefore, when analysing EU inflation one have to take into consideration the large differences on country level and focus on those one by one.

Comparing Predictive Accuracy of Real Estate Pricing Models: An Applied Study for the City of Montreal.

Rapport de recherche

Accuracy of outcome anticipation, but not gaze behavior, differs against left- and right-handed penalties in team-handball goalkeeping

Low perceptual familiarity with relatively rarer left-handed as opposed to more common right-handed individuals may result in athletes' poorer ability to anticipate the former's action intentions. Part of such left-right asymmetry in visual anticipation could be due to an inefficient gaze strategy during confrontation with left-handed individuals. To exemplify, observers may not mirror their gaze when viewing left- vs. right-handed actions but preferentially fixate on an opponent's right body side, irrespective of an opponent's handedness, owing to the predominant exposure to right-handed actions. So far empirical verification of such assumption, however, is lacking. Here we report on an experiment where team-handball goalkeepers' and non-goalkeepers' gaze behavior was recorded while they predicted throw direction of left- and right-handed 7-m penalties shown as videos on a computer monitor. As expected, goalkeepers were considerably more accurate than non-goalkeepers and prediction was better against right- than left-handed penalties. However, there was no indication of differences in gaze measures (i.e., number of fixations, overall and final fixation duration, time-course of horizontal or vertical fixation deviation) as a function of skill group or the penalty-takers' handedness. Findings suggest that inferior anticipation of left-handed compared to right-handed individuals' action intentions may not be associated with misalignment in gaze behavior. Rather, albeit looking similarly, accuracy differences could be due to observers' differential ability of picking up and interpreting the visual information provided by left- vs. right-handed movements.

A system to evaluate the accuracy of a visual mosaicking methodology

When underwater vehicles navigate close to the ocean floor, computer vision techniques can be applied to obtain motion estimates. A complete system to create visual mosaics of the seabed is described in this paper. Unfortunately, the accuracy of the constructed mosaic is difficult to evaluate. The use of a laboratory setup to obtain an accurate error measurement is proposed. The system consists on a robot arm carrying a downward looking camera. A pattern formed by a white background and a matrix of black dots uniformly distributed along the surveyed scene is used to find the exact image registration parameters. When the robot executes a trajectory (simulating the motion of a submersible), an image sequence is acquired by the camera. The estimated motion computed from the encoders of the robot is refined by detecting, to subpixel accuracy, the black dots of the image sequence, and computing the 2D projective transform which relates two consecutive images. The pattern is then substituted by a poster of the sea floor and the trajectory is executed again, acquiring the image sequence used to test the accuracy of the mosaicking system

Upland Nesting Prairie Shorebirds: Use of Managed Wetland Basins and Accuracy of Breeding Surveys

Wetlands in southern Alberta are often managed to benefit waterfowl and cattle production. Effects on other species usually are not examined. I determined the effect of managed wetlands on upland-nesting shorebirds in southern Alberta by comparing numbers of breeding willets (Catoptrophorus semipalmatus), marbled godwits (Limosa fedoa), and long-billed curlews (Numenius americanus) among areas of managed wetlands, natural wetland basins, and no wetland basins from 1995 to 2000. Surveys were carried out at 21 sites three times each year. Nine to ten of these areas (each 2 km2) were searched for nests annually from 1998–2000. Numbers of willets and marbled godwits and their nests were always highest in areas with managed wetlands, probably because almost all natural wetland basins were dry in this region in most years. Densities of willets seen during pre-incubation surveys averaged 2.3 birds/km2 in areas of managed wetlands, 0.4 in areas of natural wetland basins, and 0.1 in areas with no wetland basins. Nest densities of willets (one search each season) averaged 1.5, 0.9, and 0.3 nests/km2 in areas of managed, natural, and no wetland basins, respectively. Similarly, pre-incubation surveys averaged 1.6, 0.6, and 0.2 godwits/km2 in areas of managed, natural, and no wetland basins, and 1.2, 0.3, and 0.1 godwit nests/km2. For long-billed curlews, pre-incubation surveys averaged 0.1, 0.2, and 0.1 birds/km2, and 0, 0.2, and 0 nests/km2. Nest success was similar in areas with and without managed wetlands. Shallow managed wetlands in this region appear beneficial to willets and marbled godwits, but not necessarily to long-billed curlews. Only 8% of marked willets and godwits with nests in the area were seen or heard during surveys, compared with 29% of pre-laying individuals and 42% of birds with broods. This suggests that a low and variable percentage of these birds is counted during breeding bird surveys, likely limiting their ability to adequately monitor populations of these species.

Improvements to the accuracy of measurements of NO2 by zenith-sky visible spectrometers II: errors in zero using a more complete chemical model

Using a flexible chemical box model with full heterogeneous chemistry, intercepts of chemically modified Langley plots have been computed for the 5 years of zenith-sky NO2 data from Faraday in Antarctica (65°S). By using these intercepts as the effective amount in the reference spectrum, drifts in zero of total vertical NO2 were much reduced. The error in zero of total NO2 is ±0.03×1015 moleccm−2 from one year to another. This error is small enough to determine trends in midsummer and any variability in denoxification between midwinters. The technique also suggests a more sensitive method for determining N2O5 from zenith-sky NO2 data.

The accuracy of Doppler radar wind retrievals using insects as targets

Insect returns from the UK's Doppler weather radars were collected in the summers of 2007 and 2008, to ascertain their usefulness in providing information about boundary layer winds. Such observations could be assimilated into numerical weather prediction models to improve forecasts of convective showers before precipitation begins. Significant numbers of insect returns were observed during daylight hours on a number of days through this period, when they were detected at up to 30 km range from the radars, and up to 2 km above sea level. The range of detectable insect returns was found to vary with time of year and temperature. There was also a very weak correlation with wind speed and direction. Use of a dual-polarized radar revealed that the insects did not orient themselves at random, but showed distinct evidence of common orientation on several days, sometimes at an angle to their direction of travel. Observation minus model background residuals of wind profiles showed greater bias and standard deviation than that of other wind measurement types, which may be due to the insects' headings/airspeeds and to imperfect data extraction. The method used here, similar to the Met Office's procedure for extracting precipitation returns, requires further development as clutter contamination remained one of the largest error contributors. Wind observations derived from the insect returns would then be useful for data assimilation applications.

The accuracy of digital elevation models derived from digitised contour data

Although accuracy of digital elevation models (DEMs) can be quantified and measured in different ways, each is influenced by three main factors: terrain character, sampling strategy and interpolation method. These parameters, and their interaction, are discussed. The generation of DEMs from digitised contours is emphasised because this is the major source of DEMs, particularly within member countries of OEEPE. Such DEMs often exhibit unwelcome artifacts, depending on the interpolation method employed. The origin and magnitude of these effects and how they can be reduced to improve the accuracy of the DEMs are also discussed.