Simulating and Forecasting the Demand for New Consumer Durables

A diffusion/replacement model for new consumer durables designed to be used as a long-term forecasting tool is developed. The model simulates new demand as well as replacement demand over time. The model is called DEMSIM and is built upon a counteractive adoption model specifying the basic forces affecting the adoption behaviour of individual consumers. These forces are the promoting forces and the resisting forces. The promoting forces are further divided into internal and external influences. These influences are operationalized within a multi-segmental diffusion model generating the adoption behaviour of the consumers in each segment as an expected value. This diffusion model is combined with a replacement model built upon the same segmental structure as the diffusion model. This model generates, in turn, the expected replacement behaviour in each segment. To be able to use DEMSIM as a forecasting tool in early stages of a diffusion process estimates of the model parameters are needed as soon as possible after product launch. However, traditional statistical techniques are not very helpful in estimating such parameters in early stages of a diffusion process. To enable early parameter calibration an optimization algorithm is developed by which the main parameters of the diffusion model can be estimated on the basis of very few sales observations. The optimization is carried out in iterative simulation runs. Empirical validations using the optimization algorithm reveal that the diffusion model performs well in early long-term sales forecasts, especially as it comes to the timing of future sales peaks.

Kuluttajien kokemukset lastenvaatteiden ja -tarvikkeiden verkkokaupan palvelun laadusta sosiaalisen median keskusteluissa

Tämän pro gradu- tutkielman tavoitteena oli löytää kuluttajien palvelukokemukseen vaikuttavat tekijät lastenvaatteiden- ja tarvikkeiden -verkkokaupassa. Empiirinen tutkimus lähestyi aihetta netnografian avulla. Aineistoksi tähän tutkielmaan valittiin sosiaalisen median keskustelut. Tutkimuksen teoreettinen osa muodostui kolmesta aiheesta: verkko-ostamisesta ja palvelun laadusta, sosiaalisesta mediasta sekä word-of-mouth-viestinnästä. Verkko-ostamisessa käsiteltiin ostamisen eri vaiheet, kuluttajien motivaatiot verkosta ostamiseen, sekä siihen liittyvät riskit ja tarkasteltiin sähköisen palvelun laatua. Sosiaalinen media-luku kertoi sosiaalisen median käytöstä sekä eri medioista. Word-of-mouth-viestintä esitteli perinteisen word-of-mouth-viestinnän lisäksi sähköisen WOM-viestinnän ulottuvuudet. Empiirinen tutkimus oli laadullinen ja se toteutettiin netnografisesti. Netnografia on etnografiaan perustuva menetelmä, jota käytetään internet-aineistoissa. Aineiston analysoinnissa käytettiin teemoittelua. Aihetta lähestyttiin faktanäkökulmasta, eli tutkimuksessa oltiin kiinnostuneita niistä tosiasioista joita keskustelijat kertoivat. Aineisto kerättiin perhe-aiheisten lehtien keskustelupalstoilta sekä blogeista Google-haun avulla. Sosiaalisen median keskustelut valittiin aineistoksi, koska niistä uskottiin saatavan kaikkein totuudenmukaisinta tietoa, johon tutkijan kysymyksen asettelu ei vaikuta. Spontaanit keskustelut antavat erilaista tietoa kuin suoran kysymyksen vastaukset. Tutkimuksen tuloksena löytyi seitsemän teemaa, joita keskusteluissa käsiteltiin. Nämä ovat toimitus, palvelu, palautus ja normalisointi, ulkoasu ja toimivuus, hinta, maksaminen sekä tuotteet ja valikoima. Sen sijaan teorian pohjalta odotettavissa olleet turvallisuus ja yksityisyys eivät tulleet aineistosta lainkaan esiin. Erityisen huonona palveluna asiakkaat pitivät varastosaldojen paikkansapitämättömyyttä, hitaita toimituksia sekä epäystävällistä palvelua. Hyvää palvelua olivat nopeat toimitukset sekä yksilöllinen palvelu ja reklamaatioiden hyvä hoito.

La aplicación empresarial del marketing viral y el efecto boca-oreja electrónico. Opiniones de las empresas

[ES] La práctica tradicional del boca-oreja, natural desde hace años como modo de publicidad efectiva sin recurrir a grandes inversiones ni contrataciones en medios masivos se ha convertido en una nueva posibilidad de marketing con la llegada de las nuevas tecnologías e Internet. Así ha aparecido una nueva estrategia de marketing que consiste en explotar las redes sociales preexistentes para producir incrementos exponenciales en conocimiento de marca, denominada marketing viral. El efecto "boca-oreja online" que genera es una herramienta poderosa para las empresas, aunque su verdadero potencial está aún por descubrir. El objetivo del presente trabajo de investigación es analizar este fenómeno a través de una amplia revisión bibliográfica del término, así como un estudio empírico consistente en una entrevista en profundidad realizada a una muestra de importantes empresas españolas. Los resultados indican que el marketing viral puede ser empleado para el beneficio, tanto de grandes empresas con grandes presupuestos, como de pequeños negocios. Las experiencias exitosas de su utilización demuestran que, cuando se usa integrado en el resto de estrategias comerciales de la empresa, puede mejorar la recomendación de la marca e incrementar su notoriedad en el mercado. El marketing viral puede ser ventajoso a la hora de lanzar un nuevo producto al mercado, sin embargo, la efectividad y la medición de las campañas son vistas por muchos académicos y profesionales como un punto débil de la estrategia.

Internet y Redes Sociales

Sin apenas darnos cuenta, las Tecnologías de la Información y Comunicación (TIC) han pasado a formar parte de nuestra vida, revolucionando todos los ámbitos de nuestra economía y de nuestra sociedad. Ya nada es igual a como lo era ayer. La tecnología ha cambiado tanto el modo en el que se hacen los negocios, la forma en la que nos relacionamos con los demás, como nuestros hábitos de ocio y de consumo. A lo largo del presente trabajo, analizaremos con detenimiento el fenómeno de Internet y las redes sociales, así como el impacto que están teniendo tanto en la sociedad como en el tejido empresarial español. En este marco, describiremos y haremos un análisis comparativo de las redes sociales más comunes en España, y contemplaremos las posibilidades que ofrecen éstas para su utilización en el marco de las estrategias de marketing.

Understanding the Market for Charter and Headboat Fishing Services

Published and unpublished research findings regarding charter and headboat fishing customers from 11 studies were reviewed to provide a marketing data base for operators and to guide further research efforts. Generally, charter/headboat fishing is a male-oriented activity. Customers were between 30 and 55 years of age. Although both groups of anglers considered themselves to be experienced, charterboat anglers had fished for more years. Charter anglers fished more often with their families and headboat anglers more often with their friends. Charterboat anglers reported higher incomes than headboat anglers. Relaxation, having fun, and escaping from daily pressures were generally more important to both groups of anglers than motives relative to catching fish. Most anglers indicated that the skills and performance of the captain and crew contributed heavily to the overall evaluation of their fishing experience. Anglers were more heavily influenced to choose a particular captain or boat by informal advertising methods (i.e., word-of-mouth recommendations, reputation, and visits to the marina) than formal methods (i.e., advertisements, brochures, radio, and television). Charter anglers relied more on word-of-mouth recommendations and headboat customers were more influenced by previous experiences. Implications for further research are discussed.

Psychological bonds and their impact on behavioral loyalty in auditor-client relationships

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of the psychological bond on behavioral loyalty (word-of-mouth, continuance and non-audit services) to audit firms providing services to companies listed on the Polish Stock Exchange. Design/methodology/approach – A model is proposed and tested using structural equation modeling with LISREL. Data were collected from top executives of companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. Findings – The psychological bond has a positive effect on word-of-mouth, continuance and non-audit services. Research limitations/implications – The current research is limited to the investigation of the psychological bond as an antecedent of behavioral loyalty in Poland. Future research should identify and assess other antecedents and replicate these across different countries. A longitudinal survey across different points in time might reveal more useful information about auditor-client relationships. Practical implications – Auditors need to consider ways in which they can develop the psychological bond with their clients. This bond is the basis for the client believing the audit firm is superior to others, which has been found to lead to behavioral loyalty in this study. In particular, management of the auditor brand and reputation, personal experience of the audit firm and alumni relations are discussed as ways of enhancing the psychological bond among client executives. Originality/value – This study is the first to examine the impact of the psychological bond on behavioral loyalty in auditor-client relationships.

Housing booms and media coverage

This article analyses news media coverage of the housing market. Building on theories of media influence where word of mouth is the final mechanism of opinion change but media initiate discourse, I examine the relationship between news media and the recent UK house price boom. Over 30 000 articles on the UK housing market from the period 1993 to 2008 are analysed, and it is found that media Granger-caused real house price changes, suggesting the media may have influenced opinions on the housing market. However, media sentiment on the housing market did not change with the secular increase in house prices in the 2000s, suggesting that the media did not contribute to the UK’s housing boom and may have helped constrain it.

Meios de comunicação como instrumentos de inserção da comunidade cabo-verdiana na sociedade de acolhimento: o caso da área metropolitana de Lisboa

Dissertação apresentada à Escola Superior de Comunicação Social como parte dos requisitos para obtenção de grau de mestre em Jornalismo.

Does brand's participation on Facebook affect its brand equity?

Tese apresentada para cumprimento dos requisitos necessários à obtenção do grau de Doutor em Ciências da Comunicação, variante Comunicação e Estratégia

Social media: The new tool in firms’ marketing strategies

In this work project we discuss the advantages and disadvantages of social media as a marketing tool. Four international cases were analyzed to provide anecdotal evidence of how social and viral marketing have been used by four firms in very different industries. We reviewed empirical evidence on the topic to discuss the main components of viral marketing. We concluded that positive (electronic) word of mouth, short response time and seeding through high network value customers are the main drivers of the success of a viral marketing campaign. We also conducted a study of the Portuguese telecommunications industry, in particular, the mobile segment. We found that the three main players operating in this market have been using social media successfully as a marketing tool in a strategic approach to the 14-25 years old segment.

Análise do WOM no contexto de um evento promocional inesperado

A acção promocional inesperada promovida pela cadeia de supermercados Pingo Doce do dia 1 de Maio de 2012 foi o ponto de partida para a recolha de dados acerca do passa-­‐palavra (WOM) gerado por esta campanha. Assim, a presente dissertação analisa o WOM neste contexto específico, adaptando a escala de medida de WOM validada por Goyette et al. (2010), pretendendo também compreender os factores que o determinam. Através de análise factorial confirmatória foi possível validar a escala considerando três constituintes do WOM: a intensidade, a valência positiva e o conteúdo. Foi ainda possível concluir que o factor intensidade é o que tem um maior impacto no WOM, sendo a valência positiva o que tem menor peso factorial. A análise dos factores antecedentes ao WOM e das características individuais dos respondentes, realizada posteriormente, permitiu ainda verificar se grupos de respondentes diferentes tinham comportamentos de WOM diferentes. Assim, concluiu-­‐ se que os antecedentes ao WOM (forma de conhecimento da campanha, comportamento de ida à loja no dia da campanha e mudança da opinião geral acerca do Pingo Doce) têm grande importância para explicar o WOM, a sua intensidade, a valência positiva e o seu conteúdo. Verificou-­‐se que diferentes grupos de respondentes têm valores significativamente diferentes relativamente a cada um destes factores latentes. Já no que toca às características individuais dos respondentes (género, idade e nível de escolaridade), verificou-­‐se que o seu impacto no WOM e nas dimensões consideradas não é tão significativo, continuando no entanto a estar associadas a estas. Neste caso, a idade e o nível de escolaridade dos respondentes são as características com maior impacto na caracterização do WOM e das suas dimensões.

How different generations contact and search for brands on social media? Comparing gen X and Y

This research intends to examine if there were significant differences on the brand engagement and on the electronic word of mouth (e-WOM)1 referral intention through Facebook between Generation X and Generation Y (also called millennials). Also, this study intends to examine if there are differences in the motivations that drive these generations to interact with brands through Facebook. Results indicated that Generation Y members consumed more content on Facebook brands’ pages than Generation X. Also, they were more likely to have an e-WOM referral intention as well as being more driven by brand affiliation and opportunity seeking. Finally, currently employed individuals were found to contribute with more content than students. This study fills the gap in the literature by addressing how marketing professionals should market their brand and interact and engage with their customers, based on customers’ generational cohort.

Buyer information and brand Choice behavior in markets with asymmetries

This thesis Entitled Buyer information and brand choice behaviour in markets with asymmetries.The period of transition set in by globalization and liberalization has ensued a onsiderable degree of homogeneity with western societies with respect to quantity and quality of goods and services.The study is aimed at finding out how the buyers adapt to the prevalent complex and dynamic market configuration by taking an archetypical situation of information gathering and brand- choice decision of select household consumer durables.The study was based on a set of 301 sample respondents who were either first time purchasers or repeat purchasers for household use, of the items under study in the sample area comprising of rural, urban and semi-urban areas. Data were collected using interview schedule and analysis of the same was done with standard statistical computer programs.Buyer confidence as perceived by buyers with respect to information acquisition and brand-choice represents the felt competence to effectively function in the market.In general, lower levels of education, income and occupation showed lower levels of search. The oldest were also low searchers. The repeat purchasers of the product searched less than the first purchasers. The most important source of information was word of mouth or information from others followed by television advertisements. The least important source of information was billboards, displays and similar forms of advertisements.The second factor is characterized by items representing ‘social attributes’ like, use by many others, use by peers, recommendation by significant others and reputation of the brand. The third factor represents ‘susceptibility to incentives and promotions’.

Utilidad de la relación estratégica comunitaria y el marketing en empresas el sector salud

La necesidad de involucrar el concepto de comunidad y sus estrategias con el sector salud, generan el problema de investigación de determinar ¿Cuál es la utilidad de la relación estratégica comunitaria y el marketing en empresas del sector salud? El sector salud ha apartado las actividades relacionales con sus clientes, el cual es caracterizado por la atracción, desarrollo y mantenimiento de relaciones con los clientes. El objetivo de la investigación es determinar cuál es la utilidad de la relación estratégica comunitaria y el marketing en empresas del sector salud y los objetivos específicos son: describir el uso de comunidad e Identificar la utilidad de aplicar las estrategias comunitarias en el sector. La metodología es la investigación y análisis de caso, estudiando una organización relevante dentro del sector salud, anexando fuentes de información secundarias como que aporten a los resultados. El análisis arroja una brecha entre la teoría y la utilización de comunidad, donde la organización la define como sus clientes y empleados. Posteriormente cabe determinar si son aplicadas las estrategias comunitarias por la compañía, donde se encontró que algunas lo son. Al encontrar el uso de estrategias cabe estudiar si generan utilidad a los resultados demostrando que conservar y mejorar relaciones con los clientes es de beneficio para la compañía, sin dejar de atraer nuevos clientes para ampliar las posibilidades de ser una compañía rentable y perdurable. Finalmente se establece un eje estratégico que genere un impacto positivo a la empresa - comunidad para crear relaciones más efectivas y rentables.

Imagem de São Tomé e Principe do ponto de vista do Turismo

RESUMO: Esta dissertação visa dar uma contribuição para o desenvolvimento do turismo de STP (São Tomé e Príncipe). Foram consideradas variáveis como a experiência turística, satisfação turística, imagem turística e a intenção de recomendar a região/país, de modo a aferir as percepções dos turistas estrangeiros relativamente à avaliação da imagem turística, atendendo que o país possui um conjunto de características naturais para a prática do turismo. Neste contexto, foi aplicado um inquérito aos turistas na capital de S.Tomé (nomeadamente em, hotéis, residenciais, restaurantes, bares e no Aeroporto Internacional de São Tomé) entre os meses de Março a Maio de 2010. O estudo desenvolvido tem duas vertentes, a exploratório/descritivo e conclusiva, com ênfase na análise do tipo qualitativo e quantitativo. Utilizou-se igualmente a análise de regressão, a qual permitiu perceber a relação entre as variáveis identificadas, constatando-se que a percepção de imagem global, o passa-palavra positiva e a intenção de voltar depende da identidade do local e dos alimentos e bebidas. ABSTRACT: This dissertation aims to make a contribution to the development of tourism STP (Sao Tome and Principe). Several variables were regarded, such as the tourism experience, tourist satisfaction, tourism image and intention to recommend the region / country in order to gauge the perceptions of foreign tourists with regards to the evaluation of the tourism image, given that the country has a set of natural features for practice tourism. In this context, a survey was administered to tourists in the capital of São Tome and Principe, including hotels, guesthouses, restaurants, bars and the international airport of São Tomé during the months of March to May 2010. The developed study has two components, exploratory / descriptive and conclusive, with emphasis on qualitative and quantitative analysis. It is also used regression analysis, which allowed us to perceive the relationship between the variables identified, noting that the perception of global image, the positive word of mouth and intention to return depends on the identity of the place and food and beverages.