Winter II

Combined media on paper. 90½" x 42"

Winter I

Combined media on paper. 91" x 42"

Optimism and commitment: An elementary theory of bargaining and war

We propose an elementary theory of wars fought by fully rational contenders. Two parties play a Markov game that combines stages of bargaining with stages where one side has the ability to impose surrender on the other. Under uncertainty and incomplete information, in the unique equilibrium of the game, long confrontations occur: war arises when reality disappoints initial (rational) optimism, and it persist longer when both agents are optimists but reality proves both wrong. Bargaining proposals that are rejected initially might eventually be accepted after several periods of confrontation. We provide an explicit computation of the equilibrium, evaluating the probability of war, and its expected losses as a function of i) the costs of confrontation, ii) the asymmetry of the split imposed under surrender, and iii) the strengths of contenders at attack and defense. Changes in these parameters display non-monotonic effects.

Civil war and foreign influence

We study a symmetric information bargaining model of civil war where a third (foreign) party can affect the probabilities of winning the conflict and the size of the post conflict spoils. We show that the possible alliance with a third party makes peaceful agreements difficult to reach and might lead to new commitment problems that trigger war. Also, we argue that the foreign party is likely to induce persistent informational asymmetries which might explain long lasting civil wars. We explore both political and economic incentives for a third party to intervene. The explicit consideration of political incentives leads to two predictions that allow for identifying the influence of foreign intervention on civil war incidence. Both predictions are confirmed for the case of the U.S. as a potential intervening nation: (i) civil wars around the world are more likely under Republican governments and (ii) the probability of civil wars decreases with U.S. presidential approval rates.

Immature stages of mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) Collected during the autumn-winter period in Cordoba Province, Argentina

Eggs, immature mosquito collections were made at Cosquin, La Calera ( Chaco phytogeographic region), Villa Allende and Villa del Rosario (Espinal phytogeographic region) during April/September of two consecutive years 1989, 1990. Specific immature habitats in each locality were identified and sampled monthly. Eggs and/or immatures of Aedes albifasciatus, Ae. fluviatilis, Anopheles albitarsis, culex acharistus, Cx. apicinus, Cx. bidens, Cx. coronator, Cx. chidesteri, Cx. dolosus, Cx. maxi, Cx. quinquefasciatus, Cx. saltanensis, Psorophora ciliata and Uranotaenia lowii were collected. Three species (Cx. acharistus, Cx. dolosus and Cx. quinquefasciatus) were collected during the sampling period for all developmental stages. This suggests that immature of these species do not overwinter but continue to develop throughout the cold autumn and winter seasons.

Winter biology of Culex pipiens quinquefasciatus say, (Diptera: Culicidae) from Córdoba, Argentina

Adult cohorts and immature stages were kept under field conditions during the autumn and winter of three consecutive years. Survival, oviposition and development time from egg to adult were considered. The adult cohorts were studied under three experimental conditions: unfed cohorts, cohorts fed with sugar solution ansd cohorts fed with both sugar solution and blood (chicken). Female longevity showed significant differences among the three treatments. Females of unfed cohorts lived up to three weeks; females fed with sugar solution survived until six weeks, while those fed both with sugar and blood lived at most fourteen weeks; after the blood intake eggs were laid. In the immature stages, the highest relative mortality rates occurred during the egg and larval stages. Total pre-adult mortality varied between 59.09 and 89.71%. The developmental duration from egg to adult was between 43-62 days; there were no differences among results obtained for the three years.

Artificial Snow Optimization in Winter Sport Destinations Using a Multi-agent Simulation

This paper presents the Juste-Neige system for predicting the snow height on the ski runs of a resort using a multi-agent simulation software. Its aim is to facilitate snow cover management in order to i) reduce the production cost of artificial snow and to improve the profit margin for the companies managing the ski resorts; and ii) to reduce the water and energy consumption, and thus to reduce the environmental impact, by producing only the snow needed for a good skiing experience. The software provides maps with the predicted snow heights for up to 13 days. On these maps, the areas most exposed to snow erosion are highlighted. The software proceeds in three steps: i) interpolation of snow height measurements with a neural network; ii) local meteorological forecasts for every ski resort; iii) simulation of the impact caused by skiers using a multi-agent system. The software has been evaluated in the Swiss ski resort of Verbier and provides useful predictions.

Quality Update No 2 - Winter 2004 (PDF 636 KB)

Better Health and Social Care in NI

Winter survival of immature instars of Mansonia indubitans Dyar & Shannon and Mansonia titillans Walker (Diptera: Culicidae), in Buenos Aires, Argentina

We conducted a whole year research on the ecology of Mansonia indubitans and Ma. titillans in Macáes Pond, Costanera Sur Reserve, Buenos Aires, Argentina. The usage of different floating plants by immature instars and their overwintering was analized. The percentage of usage of the available floating macrophytes (Pistia, Limnobium, and Salvinia) by the larvae and pupae was studied. Also, we defined positivity (P+) as the percentage of plants with immature instars for each plant genus on a monthly basis. Ma. immature instars were captured throughout the year and Pistia was the resource most commonly exploited by the mosquitoes. The percentage of fourth-instar larvae and pupae on Pistia roots with respect to total immature instars captured was assessed on a monthly and seasonal basis. The proportion of fourth-instar larvae and pupae from both species of Mansonia on water lettuce roots, showed significant differences between months and seasons. Our results suggest that the populations of Ma. indubitans and Ma. titillans in Macáes Pond, survive during winter mainly as fourth-instar larvae.

War and Natural Resource Exploitation

We build a theoretical framework that allows for endogenous conflict behaviour (i.e., fighting efforts) and for endogenous natural resource exploitation (i.e., speed, ownership, and investments). While depletion is spread in a balanced Hotelling fashion during peace, the presence of conflict creates incentives for rapacious extraction, as this lowers the stakes of future contest. This voracious extraction depresses total oil revenue, especially if world oil demand is relatively elastic and the government's weapon advantage is weak. Some of these political distortions can be overcome by bribing rebels or by government investment in weapons. The shadow of conflict can also make less efficient nationalized oil extraction more attractive than private extraction, as insecure property rights create a holdup problem for the private firm and lead to a lower license fee. Furthermore, the government fights less intensely than the rebels under private exploitation, which leads to more government turnover. Without credible commitment to future fighting efforts, private oil depletion is only lucrative if the government's non-oil office rents are large and weaponry powerful, which guarantees the government a stronger grip on office and makes the holdup problem less severe.

Winter habitat selection by two sympatric forest grouse in western Switzerland: implications for conservation

Two endangered tetraonids, the capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus) and the hazel grouse (Bonasa bonasia rupestris), are sympatric throughout part of their distribution range in central Europe. Precise information on their specific habitat requirements is needed if the coexistence of both species in exploited forests is to be maintained. We quantified winter habitat selection for both species in the upper part (1100-1600 m) of the Jura mountains (Switzerland). No preference for altitude or exposure could be detected. Capercaillie preferred open forests (including grazed forests) with a sparse canopy dominated by spruce (Picea abies) and fir (Abies alba), and avoided dense undercanopy and understorey, especially when dominated by spruce and beech (Fagus sylvatica). By contrast, hazel grouse preferred feeding sites with a dense understorey of rowan (Sorbus aucuparia), willow (Salix sp.), beech and spruce. These preferences can be related to the feeding habits and predator avoidance behaviour of both species. Coexistence thus requires a mosaic distribution of habitat types, with a matrix of open forests (30% canopy cover) where fir is favoured, and understorey kept sparse (20%). Group-cuts of mature trees should allow regeneration patches, where a dense understorey (50% cover) should provide suitable habitats for hazel grouse