Short-term wind power forecast based on cluster analysis and artificial neural networks

[EN]In this paper an architecture for an estimator of short-term wind farm power is proposed. The estimator is made up of a Linear Machine classifier and a set of k Multilayer Perceptrons, training each one for a specific subspace of the input space. The splitting of the input dataset into the k clusters is done using a k-means technique, obtaining the equivalent Linear Machine classifier from the cluster centroids...

Techno-Economic Assessment of LNG and Diesel Production and Global Trading Based on Hybrid PV-Wind Power Plants and PtG, GtL and PtL Technologies

With growing demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) and liquid transportation fuels, and concerns about climate change and causes of greenhouse gas emissions, this master’s thesis introduces a new value chain design for LNG and transportation fuels and respective fundamental business cases based on hybrid PV-Wind power plants. The value chains are composed of renewable electricity (RE) converted by power-to-gas (PtG), gas-to-liquids (GtL) or power-to-liquids (PtL) facilities into SNG (which is finally liquefied into LNG) or synthetic liquid fuels, mainly diesel, respectively. The RE-LNG or RE-diesel are drop-in fuels to the current energy system and can be traded everywhere in the world. The calculations for the hybrid PV-Wind power plants, electrolysis, methanation (H2tSNG), hydrogen-to-liquids (H2tL), GtL and LNG value chain are performed based on both annual full load hours (FLh) and hourly analysis. Results show that the proposed RE-LNG produced in Patagonia, as the study case, is competitive with conventional LNG in Japan for crude oil prices within a minimum price range of about 87 - 145 USD/barrel (20 – 26 USD/MBtu of LNG production cost) and the proposed RE-diesel is competitive with conventional diesel in the European Union (EU) for crude oil prices within a minimum price range of about 79 - 135 USD/barrel (0.44 – 0.75 €/l of diesel production cost), depending on the chosen specific value chain and assumptions for cost of capital, available oxygen sales and CO2 emission costs. RE-LNG or RE-diesel could become competitive with conventional fuels from an economic perspective, while removing environmental concerns. The RE-PtX value chain needs to be located at the best complementing solar and wind sites in the world combined with a de-risking strategy. This could be an opportunity for many countries to satisfy their fuel demand locally. It is also a specific business case for countries with excellent solar and wind resources to export carbon-neutral hydrocarbons, when the decrease in production cost is considerably more than the shipping cost. This is a unique opportunity to export carbon-neutral hydrocarbons around the world where the environmental limitations on conventional hydrocarbons are getting tighter.

A data-mining based methodology for wind forecasting

In many countries the use of renewable energy is increasing due to the introduction of new energy and environmental policies. Thus, the focus on the efficient integration of renewable energy into electric power systems is becoming extremely important. Several European countries have already achieved high penetration of wind based electricity generation and are gradually evolving towards intensive use of this generation technology. The introduction of wind based generation in power systems poses new challenges for the power system operators. This is mainly due to the variability and uncertainty in weather conditions and, consequently, in the wind based generation. In order to deal with this uncertainty and to improve the power system efficiency, adequate wind forecasting tools must be used. This paper proposes a data-mining-based methodology for very short-term wind forecasting, which is suitable to deal with large real databases. The paper includes a case study based on a real database regarding the last three years of wind speed, and results for wind speed forecasting at 5 minutes intervals.

Impact of a price-maker pumped storage hydro unit on the integration of wind energy in power systems

The increasing integration of larger amounts of wind energy into power systems raises important operational issues, such as the balance between power generation and demand. The pumped storage hydro (PSH) units are one possible solution to mitigate this problem, once they can store the excess of energy in the periods of higher generation and lower demand. However, the behaviour of a PSH unit may differ considerably from the expected in terms of wind power integration when it operates in a liberalized electricity market under a price-maker context. In this regard, this paper models and computes the optimal PSH weekly scheduling in a price-taker and price-maker scenarios, either when the PSH unit operates in standalone and integrated in a portfolio of other generation assets. Results show that the price-maker standalone PSH will integrate less wind power in comparison with the price-taker situation. Moreover, when the PSH unit is integrated in a portfolio with a base load power plant, the role of the price elasticity of demand may completely change the operational profile of the PSH unit. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Investigation of factors driving the costs of operating the 2020 Irish power system with large-scale wind generation

The main goal of this work is to determine the true cost incurred by the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland in order to meet their EU renewable electricity targets. The primary all-island of Ireland policy goal is that 40% of electricity will come from renewable sources in 2020. From this it is expected that wind generation on the Irish electricity system will be in the region of 32-37% of total generation. This leads to issues resulting from wind energy being a non-synchronous, unpredictable and variable source of energy use on a scale never seen before for a single synchronous system. If changes are not made to traditional operational practices, the efficient running of the electricity system will be directly affected by these issues in the coming years. Using models of the electricity system for the all-island grid of Ireland, the effects of high wind energy penetration expected to be present in 2020 are examined. These models were developed using a unit commitment, economic dispatch tool called PLEXOS which allows for a detailed representation of the electricity system to be achieved down to individual generator level. These models replicate the true running of the electricity system through use of day-ahead scheduling and semi-relaxed use of these schedules that reflects the Transmission System Operator's of real time decision making on dispatch. In addition, it carefully considers other non-wind priority dispatch generation technologies that have an effect on the overall system. In the models developed, three main issues associated with wind energy integration were selected to be examined in detail to determine the sensitivity of assumptions presented in other studies. These three issues include wind energy's non-synchronous nature, its variability and spatial correlation, and its unpredictability. This leads to an examination of the effects in three areas: the need for system operation constraints required for system security; different onshore to offshore ratios of installed wind energy; and the degrees of accuracy in wind energy forecasting. Each of these areas directly impact the way in which the electricity system is run as they address each of the three issues associated with wind energy stated above, respectively. It is shown that assumptions in these three areas have a large effect on the results in terms of total generation costs, wind curtailment and generator technology type dispatch. In particular accounting for these issues has resulted in wind curtailment being predicted in much larger quantities than had been previously reported. This would have a large effect on wind energy companies because it is already a very low profit margin industry. Results from this work have shown that the relaxation of system operation constraints is crucial to the economic running of the electricity system with large improvements shown in the reduction of wind curtailment and system generation costs. There are clear benefits in having a proportion of the wind installed offshore in Ireland which would help to reduce variability of wind energy generation on the system and therefore reduce wind curtailment. With envisaged future improvements in day-ahead wind forecasting from 8% to 4% mean absolute error, there are potential reductions in wind curtailment system costs and open cycle gas turbine usage. This work illustrates the consequences of assumptions in the areas of system operation constraints, onshore/offshore installed wind capacities and accuracy in wind forecasting to better inform the true costs associated with running Ireland's changing electricity system as it continues to decarbonise into the near future. This work also proposes to illustrate, through the use of Ireland as a case study, the effects that will become ever more prevalent in other synchronous systems as they pursue a path of increasing renewable energy generation.

Investigation of the effects of various types of wind turbine generators on power-system stability

It has become more and more demanding to investigate the impacts of wind farms on power system operation as ever-increasing penetration levels of wind power have the potential to bring about a series of dynamic stability problems for power systems. This paper undertakes such an investigation through investigating the small signal and transient stabilities of power systems that are separately integrated with three types of wind turbine generators (WTGs), namely the squirrel cage induction generator (SCIG), the doubly fed induction generator (DFIG), and the permanent magnet generator (PMG). To examine the effects of these WTGs on a power system with regard to its stability under different operating conditions, a selected synchronous generator (SG) of the well-known Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC three-unit nine-bus system and an eight-unit 24-bus system is replaced in turn by each type of WTG with the same capacity. The performances of the power system in response to the disturbances are then systematically compared. Specifically, the following comparisons are undertaken: (1) performances of the power system before and after the integration of the WTGs; and (2) performances of the power system and the associated consequences when the SCIG, DFIG, or PMG are separately connected to the system. These stability case studies utilize both eigenvalue analysis and dynamic time-domain simulation methods.

A dual inverter-based supercapacitor direct integration scheme for wind energy conversion systems

Interfacing converters used in connecting energy storage systems like supercapacitors and battery banks to wind power systems introduce additional cost and power losses. This paper therefore presents a direct integration scheme for supercapacitors used in mitigating short-term power fluctuations in wind power systems. This scheme uses a dual inverter topology for both grid connection and interfacing a supercapacitor bank. The main inverter of the dual inverter system is powered by the rectified output of a wind turbine-coupled permanent-magnet synchronous generator. The auxiliary inverter is directly connected to the supercapacitor bank. With this approach, an interfacing converter is not required, and there are no associated costs and power losses incurred. The operation of the proposed system is discussed in detail. Simulation and experimental results are presented to verify the efficacy of the proposed system in suppressing short-term wind power fluctuations.

Flying supercapacitors as power smoothing elements in wind generation

This paper presents a capacitor-clamped three-level inverter-based supercapacitor direct integration scheme for wind energy conversion systems. The idea is to increase the capacitance of clamping capacitors with the use of supercapacitors and allow their voltage to vary within a defined range. Even though this unique approach eliminates the need of interfacing dc-dc converters for supercapacitors, the variable voltage operation brings about several challenges. The uneven distribution of space vectors is the major modulation challenge. A space vector modulation method is proposed in this paper to address this issue and to generate undistorted currents even in the presence of dynamic changes in supercapacitor voltages. A supercapacitor voltage equalization algorithm is also presented. Moreover, control strategies of the proposed system are discussed in detail. Simulation and experimental results are presented to verify the efficacy of the proposed system in suppressing short-term wind power fluctuations.

A dual inverter based supercapacitor direct integration scheme for wind energy conversion systems

This paper presents a new direct integration scheme for supercapacitors that are used to mitigate short term power fluctuations in wind power systems. The proposed scheme uses the popular dual inverter topology for grid connection as well as interfacing a supercapacitor bank. The dual inverter system is formed by cascading two 2-level inverters named as the “main inverter” and the “auxiliary inverter”. The main inverter is powered by the rectified output of a wind turbine coupled permanent magnet synchronous generator. The auxiliary inverter is directly connected to a super capacitor bank. This approach eliminates the need for an interfacing dc-dc converter for the supercapacitor bank and thus improves the overall efficiency. A detailed analysis on the effects of non-integer dynamically changing voltage ratio is presented. The concept of integrated boost rectifier is used to carry out the Maximum Power Point Tracking (MPPT) of the wind turbine generator. Another novel feature of this paper is the power reference adjuster which effectively manages capacitor charging and discharging at extreme conditions. Simulation results are presented to verify the efficacy of the proposed system in suppressing short term wind power fluctuations.

Small Signal Stability Performance of Power System during High Penetration of Wind Generation

The small signal stability of interconnected power systems is one of the important aspects that need to be investigated since the oscillations caused by this kind of instability have caused many incidents. With the increasing penetration of wind power in the power system, particularly doubly fed induction generator (DFIG), the impact on the power system small signal stability performance should be fully investigated. Because the DFIG wind turbine integration is through a fast action converter and associated control, it does not inherently participate in the electromechanical small signal oscillation. However, it influences the small signal stability by impacting active power flow paths in the network and replacing synchronous generators that have power system stabilizer (PSS). In this paper, the IEEE 39 bus test system has been used in the analysis. Furthermore, four study cases and several operation scenarios have been conducted and analysed. The selective eigenvalue Arnoldi/lanczos's method is used to obtain the system eigenvalue in the range of frequency from 0.2 Hz to 2 Hz which is related to electromechanical oscillations. Results show that the integration of DFIG wind turbines in a system during several study cases and operation scenarios give different influence on small signal stability performance.

Managing the variability of supply in the European power system with high wind energy penetration

The power system of the future will have a hierarchical structure created by layers of system control from via regional high-voltage transmission through to medium and low-voltage distribution. Each level will have generation sources such as large-scale offshore wind, wave, solar thermal, nuclear directly connected to this Supergrid and high levels of embedded generation, connected to the medium-voltage distribution system. It is expected that the fuel portfolio will be dominated by offshore wind in Northern Europe and PV in Southern Europe. The strategies required to manage the coordination of supply-side variability with demand-side variability will include large scale interconnection, demand side management, load aggregation and storage in the concept of the Supergrid combined with the Smart Grid. The design challenge associated with this will not only include control topology, data acquisition, analysis and communications technologies, but also the selection of fuel portfolio at a macro level. This paper quantifies the amount of demand side management, storage and so-called ‘back-up generation’ needed to support an 80% renewable energy portfolio in Europe by 2050.

Comparative study of power converter topologies and control strategies for the harmonic performance of variable-speed wind turbine generator systems

Power converters play a vital role in the integration of wind power into the electrical grid. Variable-speed wind turbine generator systems have a considerable interest of application for grid connection at constant frequency. In this paper, comprehensive simulation studies are carried out with three power converter topologies: matrix, two-level and multilevel. A fractional-order control strategy is studied for the variable-speed operation of wind turbine generator systems. The studies are in order to compare power converter topologies and control strategies. The studies reveal that the multilevel converter and the proposed fractional-order control strategy enable an improvement in the power quality, in comparison with the other power converters using a classical integer-order control strategy. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk control in transmission system expansion planning with wind generators

With the advent of large-scale wind farms and their integration into electrical grids, more uncertainties, constraints and objectives must be considered in power system development. It is therefore necessary to introduce risk-control strategies into the planning of transmission systems connected with wind power generators. This paper presents a probability-based multi-objective model equipped with three risk-control strategies. The model is developed to evaluate and enhance the ability of the transmission system to protect against overload risks when wind power is integrated into the power system. The model involves: (i) defining the uncertainties associated with wind power generators with probability measures and calculating the probabilistic power flow with the combined use of cumulants and Gram-Charlier series; (ii) developing three risk-control strategies by specifying the smallest acceptable non-overload probability for each branch and the whole system, and specifying the non-overload margin for all branches in the whole system; (iii) formulating an overload risk index based on the non-overload probability and the non-overload margin defined; and (iv) developing a multi-objective transmission system expansion planning (TSEP) model with the objective functions composed of transmission investment and the overload risk index. The presented work represents a superior risk-control model for TSEP in terms of security, reliability and economy. The transmission expansion planning model with the three risk-control strategies demonstrates its feasibility in the case study using two typical power systems

Doubly Fed Induction Generator for wind energy generation using nine-switch power converter

A Three-Phase Nine-Switch Converter (NSC) topology for Doubly Fed Induction Generator in wind energy generation is proposed in this paper. This converter topology was used in various applications such as Hybrid Electric Vehicles and Uninterruptable Power Supplies. In this paper, Nine-Switch Converter is introduced in Doubly Fed Induction Generator in renewable energy application for the first time. It replaces the conventional Back-to-Back Pulse Width Modulated voltage source converter (VSC) which composed of twelve switches in many DFIG applications. Reduction in number of switches is the most beneficial in terms of cost and power switching losses. The operation principle of Nine-Switch Converter using SPWM method is discussed. The resulting NSC performance of rotor side current control, active power and reactive control are compared with Back-to Back voltage source converter performance. DC link voltage regulation using front end converter is also presented. Finally the simulation results of DFIG performances using NSC and Back-to-Back VSC are analyzed and compared.