Waiting for chikungunya fever in Argentina: spatio-temporal risk maps

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) transmission has been detected in America in 2013 and recently reached south up to Bolivia, Brazil and Paraguay, bordering countries of Argentina. The presence of the mosquito Aedes aegyptiin half of the country together with the regional context drove us to make a rapid assessment of transmission risk. Temperature thresholds for vector breeding and for virus transmission, together with adult activity from the literature, were mapped on a monthly basis to estimate risk. Transmission of chikungunya byAe. aegyptiin the world was seen at monthly mean temperatures from 21-34ºC, with the majority occurring between 26-28ºC. In Argentina temperatures above 21ºC are observed since September in the northeast, expanding south until January and retreating back to the northeast in April. The maximum area under risk encompasses more than half the country and around 32 million inhabitants. Vector adult activity was registered where monthly means temperatures exceeded 13ºC, in the northeast all over the year and in the northern half from September-May. The models herein proposed show that conditions for transmission are already present. Considering the regional context and the historic inability to control dengue in the region, chikungunya fever illness seems unavoidable.

Anopheles darlingi polytene chromosomes: revised maps including newly described inversions and evidence for population structure in Manaus

Salivary gland polytene chromosomes of 4th instar Anopheles darlingi Root were examined from multiple locations in the Brazilian Amazon. Minor modifications were made to existing polytene photomaps. These included changes to the breakpoint positions of several previously described paracentric inversions and descriptions of four new paracentric inversions, two on the right arm of chromosome 3 and two on the left arm of chromosome 3 that were found in multiple locations. A total of 18 inversions on the X (n = 1) chromosome, chromosome 2 (n = 7) and 3 (n = 11) were scored for 83 individuals from Manaus, Macapá and Porto Velho municipalities. The frequency of 2Ra inversion karyotypes in Manaus shows significant deficiency of heterozygotes (p < 0.0009). No significant linkage disequilibrium was found between inversions on chromosome 2 and 3. We hypothesize that at least two sympatric subpopulations exist within the An. darlingi population at Manaus based on inversion frequencies.

Holomorphic maps between moduli spaces

We prove that every non-constant holomorphic map&em&M&/em&&sub&g,p&/sub&→ &em&M&/em&&sub& g',p'&/sub& between moduli spaces of Riemann surfaces is a forgetful map, provided that g ≥ 6 and g' ≤ 2g-2.

Integración de Google Maps y TSP Solvers para la definición y resolución del TSP

Este trabajo final de carrera presenta la arquitectura e implementación de un entorno web para la descripción y visualización de instancias reales del TSP (Travelling Salesman Problem), a través de Google Maps, y su posterior resoluación mediante tècnicas de optimización combinatoria.

Using a Parameterization of a Radiative Transfer Model to Build High-Resolution Maps of Typical Clear-Sky UV Index in Catalonia, Spain

To perform a climatic analysis of the annual UV index (UVI) variations in Catalonia, Spain (northeast of the Iberian Peninsula), a new simple parameterization scheme is presented based on a multilayer radiative transfer model. The parameterization performs fast UVI calculations for a wide range of cloudless and snow-free situations and can be applied anywhere. The following parameters are considered: solar zenith angle, total ozone column, altitude, aerosol optical depth, and single-scattering albedo. A sensitivity analysis is presented to justify this choice with special attention to aerosol information. Comparisons with the base model show good agreement, most of all for the most common cases, giving an absolute error within 0.2 in the UVI for a wide range of cases considered. Two tests are done to show the performance of the parameterization against UVI measurements. One uses data from a high-quality spectroradiometer from Lauder, New Zealand [45.04°S, 169.684°E, 370 m above mean sea level (MSL)], where there is a low presence of aerosols. The other uses data from a Robertson–Berger-type meter from Girona, Spain (41.97°N, 2.82°E, 100 m MSL), where there is more aerosol load and where it has been possible to study the effect of aerosol information on the model versus measurement comparison. The parameterization is applied to a climatic analysis of the annual UVI variation in Catalonia, showing the contributions of solar zenith angle, ozone, and aerosols. High-resolution seasonal maps of typical UV index values in Catalonia are presented

Early maternal investment in mice: no evidence for compatible-genes sexual selection despite hybrid vigor.

Confronting a recently mated female with a strange male can induce a pregnancy block ('Bruce effect'). The physiology of this effect is well studied, but its functional significance is still not fully understood. The 'anticipated infanticide hypothesis' suggests that the pregnancy block serves to avoid the cost of embryogenesis and giving birth to offspring that are likely to be killed by a new territory holder. Some 'compatible-genes sexual selection hypotheses' suggest that the likelihood of a pregnancy block is also dependent on the female's perception of the stud's and the stimulus male's genetic quality. We used two inbred strains of mice (C57BL/6 and BALB/c) to test all possible combinations of female strain, stud strain, and stimulus strain under experimental conditions (N(total) = 241 mated females). As predicted from previous studies, we found increased rates of pregnancy blocks if stud and stimulus strains differed, and we found evidence for hybrid vigour in offspring of between-strain mating. Despite the observed heterosis, pregnancies of within-strain matings were not more likely to be blocked than pregnancies of between-strain matings. A power analysis revealed that if we missed an existing effect (type-II error), the effect must be very small. If a female gave birth, the number and weight of newborns were not significantly influenced by the stimulus males. In conclusion, we found no support for the 'compatible-genes sexual selection hypotheses'.

Ratio maps and correspondence analysis

We compare two methods for visualising contingency tables and developa method called the ratio map which combines the good properties of both.The first is a biplot based on the logratio approach to compositional dataanalysis. This approach is founded on the principle of subcompositionalcoherence, which assures that results are invariant to considering subsetsof the composition. The second approach, correspondence analysis, isbased on the chi-square approach to contingency table analysis. Acornerstone of correspondence analysis is the principle of distributionalequivalence, which assures invariance in the results when rows or columnswith identical conditional proportions are merged. Both methods may bedescribed as singular value decompositions of appropriately transformedmatrices. Correspondence analysis includes a weighting of the rows andcolumns proportional to the margins of the table. If this idea of row andcolumn weights is introduced into the logratio biplot, we obtain a methodwhich obeys both principles of subcompositional coherence and distributionalequivalence.

Regions of rationality: Maps for bounded agents

An important problem in descriptive and prescriptive research in decision making is to identify regions of rationality, i.e., the areas for which heuristics are and are not effective. To map the contours of such regions, we derive probabilities that heuristics identify the best of m alternatives (m > 2) characterized by k attributes or cues (k > 1). The heuristics include a single variable (lexicographic), variations of elimination-by-aspects, equal weighting, hybrids of the preceding, and models exploiting dominance. We use twenty simulated and four empirical datasets for illustration. We further provide an overview by regressing heuristic performance on factors characterizing environments. Overall, sensible heuristics generally yield similar choices in many environments. However, selection of the appropriate heuristic can be important in some regions (e.g., if there is low inter-correlation among attributes/cues). Since our work assumes a hit or miss decision criterion, we conclude by outlining extensions for exploring the effects of different loss functions.

Implementation, elimination of weakly dominated strategies and evolutionary dynamics

This paper is concerned with the realism of mechanisms that implementsocial choice functions in the traditional sense. Will agents actually playthe equilibrium assumed by the analysis? As an example, we study theconvergence and stability properties of Sj\"ostr\"om's (1994) mechanism, onthe assumption that boundedly rational players find their way to equilibriumusing monotonic learning dynamics and also with fictitious play. Thismechanism implements most social choice functions in economic environmentsusing as a solution concept the iterated elimination of weakly dominatedstrategies (only one round of deletion of weakly dominated strategies isneeded). There are, however, many sets of Nash equilibria whose payoffs maybe very different from those desired by the social choice function. Withmonotonic dynamics we show that many equilibria in all the sets ofequilibria we describe are the limit points of trajectories that havecompletely mixed initial conditions. The initial conditions that lead tothese equilibria need not be very close to the limiting point. Furthermore,even if the dynamics converge to the ``right'' set of equilibria, it stillcan converge to quite a poor outcome in welfare terms. With fictitious play,if the agents have completely mixed prior beliefs, beliefs and play convergeto the outcome the planner wants to implement.

The gain-loss asymmetry and single-self preferences

Kahneman and Tversky asserted a fundamental asymmetry between gains and losses, namely a reflection effect which occurs when an individual prefers a sure gain of $ pz to anuncertain gain of $ z with probability p, while preferring an uncertain loss of $z with probability p to a certain loss of $ pz.We focus on this class of choices (actuarially fair), and explore the extent to which thereflection effect, understood as occurring at a range of wealth levels, is compatible with single-self preferences.We decompose the reflection effect into two components, a probability switch effect,which is compatible with single-self preferences, and a translation effect, which is not. To argue the first point, we analyze two classes of single-self, nonexpected utility preferences, which we label homothetic and weakly homothetic. In both cases, we characterize the switch effect as well as the dependence of risk attitudes on wealth.We also discuss two types of utility functions of a form reminiscent of expected utility but with distorted probabilities. Type I always distorts the probability of the worst outcome downwards, yielding attraction to small risks for all probabilities. Type II distorts low probabilities upwards, and high probabilities downwards, implying risk aversion when the probability of the worst outcome is low. By combining homothetic or weak homothetic preferences with Type I or Type II distortion functions, we present four explicit examples: All four display a switch effect and, hence, a form of reflection effect consistent a single self preferences.

Variability of apparently homogeneous soilscapes in São Paulo state, Brazil: II. quality of soil maps

The quality of semi-detailed (scale 1:100.000) soil maps and the utility of a taxonomically based legend were assessed by studying 33 apparently homogeneous fields with strongly weathered soils in two regions in São Paulo State: Araras and Assis. An independent data set of 395 auger sites was used to determine purity of soil mapping units and analysis of variance within and between mapping units and soil classification units. Twenty three soil profiles were studied in detail. The studied soil maps have a high purity for some legend criteria, such as B horizon type (> 90%) and soil texture class (> 80%). The purity for the "trophic character" (eutrophic, dystrophic, allic) was only 55% in Assis. It was 88% in Araras, where many soil units had been mapped as associations. In both regions, the base status of clay-textured soils was generally better than suggested by the maps. Analysis of variance showed that mapping was successful for "durable" soil characteristics such as clay content (> 80% of variance explained) and cation exchange capacity (≥ 50% of variance explained) of 0-20 and 60-80 cm layers. For soil characteristics that are easily modified by management, such as base saturation of the 0-20 cm layer, the maps had explained very little (< 15%) of the total variance in the study areas. Intermediate results were obtained for base saturation of the 60-80 cm layer (56% in Assis; 42% in Araras). Variance explained by taxonomic groupings that formed the basis for the legend of the soil maps was similar to, often even smaller than, variance explained by mapping units. The conclusion is that map boundaries have been very carefully located, but descriptions of mapping units could be improved. In future mappings, this could possibly be done at low cost by (a) bulk sampling to remove short range variation and enhance visualization of spatial patterns at distances > 100 m; (b) taking advantage of correlations between easily measured soil characteristics and chemical soil properties and, (c) unbending the link between legend criteria and a taxonomic system. The maps are well suited to obtain an impression of land suitability for high-input farming. Additional field work and data on former land use/management are necessary for the evaluation of chemical properties of surface horizons.

'Good-genes' and 'compatible-genes' effects in an Alpine whitefish and the information content of breeding tubercles over the course of the spawning season.

Some models of sexual selection predict that individuals vary in their genetic quality and reveal some of this variation in their secondary sexual characteristics. Alpine whitefish (Coregonus sp.) develop breeding tubercles shortly before their spawning season. These tubercles are epidermal structures that are distributed regularly along the body sides of both males and females. There is still much unexplained variation in the size of breeding tubercles within both sexes and with much overlap between the sexes. It has been suggested that breeding tubercles function to maintain body contact between the mating partners during spawning, act as weapons for defence of spawning territories, or are sexual signals that reveal aspects of genetic quality. We took two samples of whitefish from their spawning place, one at the beginning and one around the peak of spawning season. We found that females have on average smaller breeding tubercles than males, and that tubercle size partly reveals the stage of gonad maturation. Two independent full-factorial breeding experiments revealed that embryo mortality was significantly influenced by male and female effects. This finding demonstrates that the males differed in their genetic quality (because offspring get nothing but genes from their fathers). Tubercle size was negatively linked to some aspects of embryo mortality in the first breeding experiment but not significantly so in the second. This lack of consistency adds to inconsistent results that were reported before and suggests that (i) some aspects of genetic quality are not revealed in breeding tubercles while others are, or (ii) individuals vary in their signaling strategies and the information content of breeding tubercles is not always reliable. Moreover, the fact that female whitefish have breeding tubercles of significant size while males seem to have few reasons to be choosy suggests that the tubercles might also serve some functions that are not linked to sexual signaling.