Improving wheat simulation capabilities in Australia from a cropping systems perspective - II. Testing simulation capabilities of wheat growth

To simulate cropping systems, crop models must not only give reliable predictions of yield across a wide range of environmental conditions, they must also quantify water and nutrient use well, so that the status of the soil at maturity is a good representation of the starting conditions for the next cropping sequence. To assess the suitability for this task a range of crop models, currently used in Australia, were tested. The models differed in their design objectives, complexity and structure and were (i) tested on diverse, independent data sets from a wide range of environments and (ii) model components were further evaluated with one detailed data set from a semi-arid environment. All models were coded into the cropping systems shell APSIM, which provides a common soil water and nitrogen balance. Crop development was input, thus differences between simulations were caused entirely by difference in simulating crop growth. Under nitrogen non-limiting conditions between 73 and 85% of the observed kernel yield variation across environments was explained by the models. This ranged from 51 to 77% under varying nitrogen supply. Water and nitrogen effects on leaf area index were predicted poorly by all models resulting in erroneous predictions of dry matter accumulation and water use. When measured light interception was used as input, most models improved in their prediction of dry matter and yield. This test highlighted a range of compensating errors in all modelling approaches. Time course and final amount of water extraction was simulated well by two models, while others left up to 25% of potentially available soil water in the profile. Kernel nitrogen percentage was predicted poorly by all models due to its sensitivity to small dry matter changes. Yield and dry matter could be estimated adequately for a range of environmental conditions using the general concepts of radiation use efficiency and transpiration efficiency. However, leaf area and kernel nitrogen dynamics need to be improved to achieve better estimates of water and nitrogen use if such models are to be use to evaluate cropping systems. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V.

Prediction of the chemical composition of lamb carcasses from multi-frequency impedance data

Multi-frequency bioimpedance analysis (MFBIA) was used to determine the impedance, reactance and resistance of 103 lamb carcasses (17.1-34.2 kg) immediately after slaughter and evisceration. Carcasses were halved, frozen and one half subsequently homogenized and analysed for water, crude protein and fat content. Three measures of carcass length were obtained. Diagonal length between the electrodes (right side biceps femoris to left side of neck) explained a greater proportion of the variance in water mass than did estimates of spinal length and was selected for use in the index L-2/Z to predict the mass of chemical components in the carcass. Use of impedance (Z) measured at the characteristic frequency (Z(c)) instead of 50 kHz (Z(50)) did not improve the power of the model to predict the mass of water, protein or fat in the carcass. While L-2/Z(50) explained a significant proportion of variation in the masses of body water (r(2) 0.64), protein (r(2) 0.34) and fat (r(2) 0.35), its inclusion in multi-variate indices offered small or no increases in predictive capacity when hot carcass weight (HCW) and a measure of rib fat-depth (GR) were present in the model. Optimized equations were able to account for 65-90 % of the variance observed in the weight of chemical components in the carcass. It is concluded that single frequency impedance data do not provide better prediction of carcass composition than can be obtained from measures of HCW and GR. Indices of intracellular water mass derived from impedance at zero frequency and the characteristic frequency explained a similar proportion of the variance in carcass protein mass as did the index L-2/Z(50).

Prediction of MHC class II-binding peptides using an evolutionary algorithm and artificial neural network

Motivation: Prediction methods for identifying binding peptides could minimize the number of peptides required to be synthesized and assayed, and thereby facilitate the identification of potential T-cell epitopes. We developed a bioinformatic method for the prediction of peptide binding to MHC class II molecules. Results: Experimental binding data and expert knowledge of anchor positions and binding motifs were combined with an evolutionary algorithm (EA) and an artificial neural network (ANN): binding data extraction --> peptide alignment --> ANN training and classification. This method, termed PERUN, was implemented for the prediction of peptides that bind to HLA-DR4(B1*0401). The respective positive predictive values of PERUN predictions of high-, moderate-, low- and zero-affinity binder-a were assessed as 0.8, 0.7, 0.5 and 0.8 by cross-validation, and 1.0, 0.8, 0.3 and 0.7 by experimental binding. This illustrates the synergy between experimentation and computer modeling, and its application to the identification of potential immunotheraaeutic peptides.

Truncation errors in finite difference models for solute transport equation with first-order reaction

The truncation errors associated with finite difference solutions of the advection-dispersion equation with first-order reaction are formulated from a Taylor analysis. The error expressions are based on a general form of the corresponding difference equation and a temporally and spatially weighted parametric approach is used for differentiating among the various finite difference schemes. The numerical truncation errors are defined using Peclet and Courant numbers and a new Sink/Source dimensionless number. It is shown that all of the finite difference schemes suffer from truncation errors. Tn particular it is shown that the Crank-Nicolson approximation scheme does not have second order accuracy for this case. The effects of these truncation errors on the solution of an advection-dispersion equation with a first order reaction term are demonstrated by comparison with an analytical solution. The results show that these errors are not negligible and that correcting the finite difference scheme for them results in a more accurate solution. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Self-efficacy for refusal mediated by outcome expectancies in the prediction of alcohol-dependence amongst young adults

The present study examined the relative importance of outcome expectancies and self-efficacy [1] in the prediction of alcohol dependence [2] and alcohol consumption in a sample of young adult drinkers drawn from a milieu previously reported as supportive of risky drinking. In predicting alcohol dependence, outcome expectancies were found to mediate self-efficacy and the same pattern was found for both males and females. This suggests that male and female drinkers may become more similar as they progress along the drinking continuum from risky drinking to dependent drinking. However, in women, in comparison to men, a greater array of expectancies and self-efficacy scales were found to predict heavy drinking, as measured by quantity and frequency. These results suggest that heavy drinking women are particularly at risk of developing drinking related complications and that preventative education needs to take into account gender differences.

Tailored advice on exercise - Does it make a difference?

Objectives: A controlled trial to compare the effectiveness of verbal advice from a family physician (FP) combined with either standard or tailored written information on physical activity in increasing the levels of physical activity in sedentary patients. Design: Sedentary patients (n = 763) were recruited through ten family practices and allocated to a control group or one of two intervention groups, Brief advice on physical activity was given by the FP during the consultation and either a standard or tailored pamphlet was mailed to the home address of patients assigned to the intervention groups within two days of their visit to the FP. Results: The response to follow-up, via a postal survey at one, six, and twelve months after the index consultation was 70%, 60%, and 57%, respectively. Treating all nonresponders as sedentary, the results revealed that although more tailored subjects reported some physical activity at each follow-up compared with the standard group, these differences were not significant, Furthermore, there was no significant difference in movement across the stages of readiness to exercise at follow-up between subjects in the tailored group who received material targeting their current stage (precontemplation or contemplation) and the standard group who received generic material that addressed both stages. Conclusion: These findings do not concur with the results from previous research in the areas of nutrition and smoking cessation where additional benefits were seen with a tailored intervention. Future research on the application of the principles of tailoring to the promotion of physical activity should focus on identifying which, if any, physical, social, psychological or environmental variables should be addressed to produce improved outcomes over and above the effects of well designed generic materials. (C) 1999 American Journal of Preventive Medicine.

El Nino and arboviral disease prediction

Recent El Nino events have stimulated interest in the development of modeling techniques to forecast extremes of climate and related health events. Previous studies have documented associations between specific climate variables (particularly temperature and rainfall) and outbreaks of arboviral disease. In some countries, such diseases are sensitive to Fl Nino. Here we describe a climate-based model for the prediction of Ross River virus epidemics in Australia. From a literature search and data on case notifications, we determined in which years there were epidemics of Ross River virus in southern Australia between 1928 and 1998. Predictor variables were monthly Southern Oscillation index values for the year of an epidemic or lagged by 1 year. We found that in southeastern states, epidemic years were well predicted by monthly Southern Oscillation index values in January and September in the previous year. The model forecasts that there is a high probability of epidemic Ross River virus in the southern states of Australia in 1999. We conclude that epidemics of arboviral disease can, at least in principle, be predicted on the basis of climate relationships.

Synthesis of [Cu-2(Me-2[9]aneN(2)S)(2)(OH)(2)] (PF6)(2), a hydroxo-bridged copper(II) complex of N,N '-dimethyl-1-thia-4,7-diazacyclononane (Me-2[9]aneN(2)S). X-ray structural analysis, magnetic susceptibility, EPR and visible spectroscopy

The bis(mu-hydroxo) complex [Cu-2(Me-2[9]aneN(2)S)(2)(OH)(2)](PF6)(2) (Me-2[9]aneN(2)S = N,N'-dimethyl-1-thia-4,7-diazacyclononane) results after reaction of [Cu(Me-2[9]aneN(2)S)(MeCN)] (PF6) with dioxygen at -78 degrees C in acetonitrile. The complex has been characterized by X-ray crystallography: orthorhombic, space group Pnma, with a 18.710(3), b 16.758(2), c 9.593(2) Angstrom, and Z = 4. The structure refined to a final R value of 0.051. The complex contains two copper(II) ions bridged by two hydroxo groups with Cu ... Cu 2.866(1) Angstrom. The solid-state magnetic susceptibility study reveals ferromagnetic coupling, the fitting parameters being J = +46+/-5 cm(-1), g = 2.01+/-0.01 and theta = -0.58+/-0.03 K. The frozen-solution e.p.r. spectrum in dimethyl sulfoxide is characteristic of a monomeric copper(II) ion (g(parallel to) 2.300, g(perpendicular to) 2.063; A(parallel to) 156.2 x 10(-4) cm(-1), A(perpendicular to) 9.0 x 10(-4) cm(-1)) with an N2O2 donor set. Thioether coordination to the copper(II) in solution is supported by the presence of an intense absorption assigned to a sigma(S)-->Cu-II LMCT transition at c. 34000 cm(-1). The single-crystal spectrum of [Cu-2(Me-2[9]aneN(2)S)(2)(OH)(2)] (PF6)(2) (273 K) reveals d-->d transitions at 14500 and 18300 cm(-1) and a weak pi(S)-->Cu-II charge-transfer band at approximately 25000 cm(-1).

A two-dimensional analytical solution of groundwater responses to tidal loading in an estuary and ocean

Previous studies on tidal dynamics of coastal aquifers have focussed on the inland propagation of oceanic tides in the cross-shore direction, a configuration that is essentially one-dimensional. Aquifers at natural coasts can also be influenced by tidal waves in nearby estuaries, resulting in a more complex behaviour of head fluctuations in the aquifers. We present an analytical solution to the two-dimensional depth-averaged groundwater flow equation for a semi-infinite aquifer subject to oscillating head conditions at the boundaries. The solution describes the tidal dynamics of a coastal aquifer that is adjacent to a cross-shore estuary. Both the effects of oceanic and estuarine tides on the aquifer are included in the solution. The analytical prediction of the head fluctuations is verified by comparison with numerical solutions computed using a standard finite-difference method. An essential feature of the present analytical solution is the interaction between the cross- and along-shore tidal waves in the aquifer area near the estuary's entry. As the distance from the estuary or coastline increases, the wave interaction is weakened and the aquifer response is reduced, respectively, to the one-dimensional solution for oceanic tides or the solution of Sun (Sun H. A two-dimensional analytical solution of groundwater response to tidal loading in an estuary, Water Resour Res 1997;33:1429-35) for two-dimensional non-interacting tidal waves. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prediction of rock alteration patterns: a potential tool in mineral exploration

Hydrothermal alteration of a quartz-K-feldspar rock is simulated numerically by coupling fluid flow and chemical reactions. Introduction of CO2 gas generates an acidic fluid and produces secondary quartz, muscovite and/or pyrophyllite at constant temperature and pressure of 300 degrees C and 200 MPa. The precipitation and/or dissolution of the secondary minerals is controlled by either mass-action relations or rate laws. In our simulations the mass of the primary elements are conserved and the mass-balance equations are solved sequentially using an implicit scheme in a finite-element code. The pore-fluid velocity is assumed to be constant. The change of rock volume due to the dissolution or precipitation of the minerals, which is directly related to their molar volume, is taken into account. Feedback into the rock porosity and the reaction rates is included in the model. The model produces zones of pyrophyllite quartz and muscovite due to the dissolution of K-feldspar. Our model simulates, in a simplified way, the acid-induced alteration assemblages observed in various guises in many significant mineral deposits. The particular aluminosilicate minerals produced in these experiments are associated with the gold deposits of the Witwatersrand Basin.

The role of cognitive vulnerability and stress in the prediction of postpartum depressive symptomatology

Objectives. The present study was designed to test the diathesis-stress components of Beck's cognitive theory of depression and the reformulated learned helplessness model of depression in the prediction of postpartum depressive symptomatology. Design and methods. The research used a two-wave longitudinal design-data were collected from 65 primiparous women during their third trimester of pregnancy and then 6 weeks after the birth. Cognitive vulnerability and initial depressive symptomatology were assessed at Time 1, whereas stress and postpartum depressive symptomatology were assessed at Time 2. Results. There was some support for the diathesis-stress component of Beck's cognitive theory, to the extent that the negative relationship between both general and maternal-specific dysfunctional attitudes associated with performance evaluation and Time 2 depressive symptomatology was strongest for women who reported high levels of parental stress. In a similar vein, the effects of dysfunctional attitudes (general and maternal-specific) associated with performance evaluation and need for approval (general measure only) on partner ratings of emotional distress were evident only among those women whose infants were rated as being temperamentally difficult. Conclusion. There was no support for the diathesis-stress component of the reformulated learned helplessness model of depression; however, there was some support for the diathesis-stress component of Beck's cognitive theory.

Prediction of promiscuous peptides that bind HLA class I molecules

Promiscuous T-cell epitopes make ideal targets for vaccine development. We report here a computational system, multipred, for the prediction of peptide binding to the HLA-A2 supertype. It combines a novel representation of peptide/MHC interactions with a hidden Markov model as the prediction algorithm. multipred is both sensitive and specific, and demonstrates high accuracy of peptide-binding predictions for HLA-A*0201, *0204, and *0205 alleles, good accuracy for *0206 allele, and marginal accuracy for *0203 allele. multipred replaces earlier requirements for individual prediction models for each HLA allelic variant and simplifies computational aspects of peptide-binding prediction. Preliminary testing indicates that multipred can predict peptide binding to HLA-A2 supertype molecules with high accuracy, including those allelic variants for which no experimental binding data are currently available.

Methods for prediction of peptide binding to MHC molecules: A comparative study

Background: A variety of methods for prediction of peptide binding to major histocompatibility complex (MHC) have been proposed. These methods are based on binding motifs, binding matrices, hidden Markov models (HMM), or artificial neural networks (ANN). There has been little prior work on the comparative analysis of these methods. Materials and Methods: We performed a comparison of the performance of six methods applied to the prediction of two human MHC class I molecules, including binding matrices and motifs, ANNs, and HMMs. Results: The selection of the optimal prediction method depends on the amount of available data (the number of peptides of known binding affinity to the MHC molecule of interest), the biases in the data set and the intended purpose of the prediction (screening of a single protein versus mass screening). When little or no peptide data are available, binding motifs are the most useful alternative to random guessing or use of a complete overlapping set of peptides for selection of candidate binders. As the number of known peptide binders increases, binding matrices and HMM become more useful predictors. ANN and HMM are the predictive methods of choice for MHC alleles with more than 100 known binding peptides. Conclusion: The ability of bioinformatic methods to reliably predict MHC binding peptides, and thereby potential T-cell epitopes, has major implications for clinical immunology, particularly in the area of vaccine design.

Inter-subband redundancy prediction using neural network for video coding

High performance video codec is mandatory for multimedia applications such as video-on-demand and video conferencing. Recent research has proposed numerous video coding techniques to meet the requirement in bandwidth, delay, loss and Quality-of-Service (QoS). In this paper, we present our investigations on inter-subband self-similarity within the wavelet-decomposed video frames using neural networks, and study the performance of applying the spatial network model to all video frames over time. The goal of our proposed method is to restore the highest perceptual quality for video transmitted over a highly congested network. Our contributions in this paper are: (1) A new coding model with neural network based, inter-subband redundancy (ISR) prediction for video coding using wavelet (2) The performance of 1D and 2D ISR prediction, including multiple levels of wavelet decompositions. Our result shows a short-term quality enhancement may be obtained using both 1D and 2D ISR prediction.