Advances in application of climate prediction in agriculture

Agricultural ecosystems and their associated business and government systems are diverse and varied. They range from farms, to input supply businesses, to marketing and government policy systems, among others. These systems are dynamic and responsive to fluctuations in climate. Skill in climate prediction offers considerable opportunities to managers via its potential to realise system improvements (i.e. increased food production and profit and/or reduced risks). Realising these opportunities, however, is not straightforward as the forecasting skill is imperfect and approaches to applying the existing skill to management issues have not been developed and tested extensively. While there has been much written about impacts of climate variability, there has been relatively little done in relation to applying knowledge of climate predictions to modify actions ahead of likely impacts. However, a considerable body of effort in various parts of the world is now being focused on this issue of applying climate predictions to improve agricultural systems. In this paper, we outline the basis for climate prediction, with emphasis on the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon, and catalogue experiences at field, national and global scales in applying climate predictions to agriculture. These diverse experiences are synthesised to derive general lessons about approaches to applying climate prediction in agriculture. The case studies have been selected to represent a diversity of agricultural systems and scales of operation. They also represent the on-going activities of some of the key research and development groups in this field around the world. The case studies include applications at field/farm scale to dryland cropping systems in Australia, Zimbabwe, and Argentina. This spectrum covers resource-rich and resource-poor farming with motivations ranging from profit to food security. At national and global scale we consider possible applications of climate prediction in commodity forecasting (wheat in Australia) and examine implications on global wheat trade and price associated with global consequences of climate prediction. In cataloguing these experiences we note some general lessons. Foremost is the value of an interdisciplinary systems approach in connecting disciplinary Knowledge in a manner most suited to decision-makers. This approach often includes scenario analysis based oil simulation with credible models as a key aspect of the learning process. Interaction among researchers, analysts and decision-makers is vital in the development of effective applications all of the players learn. Issues associated with balance between information demand and supply as well as appreciation of awareness limitations of decision-makers, analysts, and scientists are highlighted. It is argued that understanding and communicating decision risks is one of the keys to successful applications of climate prediction. We consider that advances of the future will be made by better connecting agricultural scientists and practitioners with the science of climate prediction. Professions involved in decision making must take a proactive role in the development of climate forecasts if the design and use of climate predictions are to reach their full potential. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

A classification of subantarctic Heard Island vegetation

The vascular and bryophyte floras of subantarctic Heard Island were classified using cluster analysis into six vegetation communities: Open Cushion Carpet, Mossy Feldmark, Wet Mixed Herbfield, Coastal Biotic Vegetation, Saltspray Vegetation, and Closed Cushion Carpet. Multidimensional scaling indicated that the vegetation communities were not well delineated but were continua. Discriminant analysis and a classification tree identified altitude, wind, peat depth, bryophyte cover and extent of bare ground, and particle size as discriminating variables. The combination of small area, glaciation, and harsh climate has resulted in reduced vegetation variety in comparison to those subantarctic islands north of the Antarctic Polar Front Zone. Some of the functional groups and vegetation communities found on warmer subantarctic islands are not present on Heard Island, notably ferns and sedges and fernbrakes and extensive mires, respectively.

N-15 natural abundance of fossil peat reflects the influence of animal-derived nitrogen on vegetation

delta(15)N signatures of fossil peat were used to interpret past ecosystem processes on tectonically active subantarctic Macquarie Island. By comparing past vegetation reconstructed from the fossil record with present-day vegetation analogues, our evidence strongly suggests that changes in the delta(15)N signatures of fossil peat at this location reflect mainly past changes in the proportion of plant nitrogen derived from animal sources. Associated with uplift above sea level over the past 8,500 years, fossil records in two peat deposits on the island chronicle a change from coastal vegetation with fur and elephant seal disturbance to the existing inland herbfield. Coupled with this change are synchronous changes in the delta(15)N signatures of peat layers. At two sites N-15-enriched peat delta(15)N signatures of up to +17parts per thousand were associated with a high abundance of pollen of the nitrophile Callitriche antarctica (Callitrichaceae). At one site fossil seal hair was also associated with enriched peat delta(15)N. Less N-15 enriched delta(15)N signatures (e.g. -1.9parts per thousand to +3.9parts per thousand) were measured in peat layers which lacked animal associated C. antarctica and Acaena spp. Interpretation of a third peat profile indicates continual occupation of a ridge site by burrowing petrels for most of the Holocene. We suggest that N-15 signatures of fossil peat remained relatively stable with time once deposited, providing a significant new tool for interpreting the palaeoecology.

Aggregated personality, climate and demographic factors as predictors of departmental shrinkage

The present study investigated how demographic, personality, and climate variables act to predict departmental theft. Participants in the current field survey were 153 employees from 17 departments across two stores. The results of confirmatory factor analyses supported the construct validity of the Big Five Inventory (John, Donahue, & Kentle, 1991) and the Occupational Climate Questionnaire (Furnham & Gunter, 1997) in UK work settings. The results of regression analysis indicate that the variability in departmental theft is accountable in terms of a linear combination of demographic, personality, and climate factors. We concluded that an expanded theoretical perspective (utilizing demographic, personality, and climate variables) explained more variance than might otherwise be expected from any single perspective. Indeed, climate, personality, and demographic variables operated legitimately at the departmental level. Finally, we explained aggregated personality as a form of social interaction which is the by-product of individual differences.

Effects of habitat characteristics and climate on the distribution and colouration of Dusky Moorhens (Gallinula tenebrosa) in south-east Queensland

We determined which factors predict the presence and abundance of Dusky Moorhens (Gallinula tenebrosa) at wetlands by surveying the ecological and habitat characteristics of 62 sites across south-east Queensland. Moorhens were observed in 48 of the sites sampled. They were more likely to be found at sites surrounded by taller terrestrial vegetation and where free-floating and attached aquatic vegetation was more abundant. The number of moorhens found at a site increased in relation to vegetation height, the abundance of attached aquatic vegetation and the number of purple swamphens observed. These results suggest that there are ecological constraints on the distribution of moorhens, and that food abundance and the availability of suitable nesting sites determine the overall distribution and abundance of moorhens in wetlands. Adult moorhens develop brightly coloured fleshy frontal shields, bills and legs when breeding, although in some populations birds maintain year-round colouration. We observed year-round breeding colouration in 23 out of 34 sampling sites that had moorhens and were surveyed in August. Coloured moorhens were found during winter at sites with higher minimum winter temperatures, and more abundant free-floating and submerged leafy vegetation. In addition, higher proportions of moorhens were coloured at sites with higher mean minimum temperatures. The retention of year-round breeding colouration appears to be restricted to areas with warmer winter temperatures and more abundant food. The results suggest that areas not occupied by moorhens are of inadequate quality to support breeding populations. We suggest that ecological constraints on independent breeding in Dusky Moorhens may have favoured the evolution of their unusual cooperative breeding system, which involves frequent mate-sharing by both sexes.

SPAnDX: a process-based population dynamics model to explore management and climate change impacts on an invasive alien plant, Acacia nilotica

This paper describes a process-based metapopulation dynamics and phenology model of prickly acacia, Acacia nilotica, an invasive alien species in Australia. The model, SPAnDX, describes the interactions between riparian and upland sub-populations of A. nilotica within livestock paddocks, including the effects of extrinsic factors such as temperature, soil moisture availability and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide. The model includes the effects of management events such as changing the livestock species or stocking rate, applying fire, and herbicide application. The predicted population behaviour of A. nilotica was sensitive to climate. Using 35 years daily weather datasets for five representative sites spanning the range of conditions that A. nilotica is found in Australia, the model predicted biomass levels that closely accord with expected values at each site. SPAnDX can be used as a decision-support tool in integrated weed management, and to explore the sensitivity of cultural management practices to climate change throughout the range of A. nilotica. The cohort-based DYMEX modelling package used to build and run SPAnDX provided several advantages over more traditional population modelling approaches (e.g. an appropriate specific formalism (discrete time, cohort-based, process-oriented), user-friendly graphical environment, extensible library of reusable components, and useful and flexible input/output support framework). (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

Vulnerability of mediterranean watersheds to climate change

Desertification is a critical issue for Mediterranean drylands. Climate change is expected to aggravate its extension and severity by reinforcing the biophysical driving forces behind desertification processes: hydrology, vegetation cover and soil erosion. The main objective of this thesis is to assess the vulnerability of Mediterranean watersheds to climate change, by estimating impacts on desertification drivers and the watersheds’ resilience to them. To achieve this objective, a modeling framework capable of analyzing the processes linking climate and the main drivers is developed. The framework couples different models adapted to different spatial and temporal scales. A new model for the event scale is developed, the MEFIDIS model, with a focus on the particular processes governing Mediterranean watersheds. Model results are compared with desertification thresholds to estimate resilience. This methodology is applied to two contrasting study areas: the Guadiana and the Tejo, which currently present a semi-arid and humid climate. The main conclusions taken from this work can be summarized as follows: • hydrological processes show a high sensitivity to climate change, leading to a significant decrease in runoff and an increase in temporal variability; • vegetation processes appear to be less sensitive, with negative impacts for agricultural species and forests, and positive impacts for Mediterranean species; • changes to soil erosion processes appear to depend on the balance between changes to surface runoff and vegetation cover, itself governed by relationship between changes to temperature and rainfall; • as the magnitude of changes to climate increases, desertification thresholds are surpassed in a sequential way, starting with the watersheds’ ability to sustain current water demands and followed by the vegetation support capacity; • the most important thresholds appear to be a temperature increase of +3.5 to +4.5 ºC and a rainfall decrease of -10 to -20 %; • rainfall changes beyond this threshold could lead to severe water stress occurring even if current water uses are moderated, with droughts occurring in 1 out of 4 years; • temperature changes beyond this threshold could lead to a decrease in agricultural yield accompanied by an increase in soil erosion for croplands; • combined changes of temperature and rainfall beyond the thresholds could shift both systems towards a more arid state, leading to severe water stresses and significant changes to the support capacity for current agriculture and natural vegetation in both study areas.

Integrated analysis of climate, soil, topography and vegetative growth in Iberian viticultural regions

The Iberian viticultural regions are convened according to the Denomination of Origin (DO) and present different climates, soils, topography and management practices. All these elements influence the vegetative growth of different varieties throughout the peninsula, and are tied to grape quality and wine type. In the current study, an integrated analysis of climate, soil, topography and vegetative growth was performed for the Iberian DO regions, using state-of-the-art datasets. For climatic assessment, a categorized index, accounting for phenological/thermal development, water availability and grape ripening conditions was computed. Soil textural classes were established to distinguish soil types. Elevation and aspect (orientation) were also taken into account, as the leading topographic elements. A spectral vegetation index was used to assess grapevine vegetative growth and an integrated analysis of all variables was performed. The results showed that the integrated climate-soil-topography influence on vine performance is evident. Most Iberian vineyards are grown in temperate dry climates with loamy soils, presenting low vegetative growth. Vineyards in temperate humid conditions tend to show higher vegetative growth. Conversely, in cooler/warmer climates, lower vigour vineyards prevail and other factors, such as soil type and precipitation acquire more important roles in driving vigour. Vines in prevailing loamy soils are grown over a wide climatic diversity, suggesting that precipitation is the primary factor influencing vigour. The present assessment of terroir characteristics allows direct comparison among wine regions and may have great value to viticulturists, particularly under a changing climate.

Spatio-temporal analyses of the relationship between armed conflict and climate change in the eastern Africa

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Recent droughts and the impact of North Atlantic Oscillation in Iberia; a spatiotemporal analysis based on vegetation temperature condition Index (VTCI)

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Sensitivity of the Amazon biome to high resolution climate change projections

ABSTRACT: Despite the reduction in deforestation rate in recent years, the impact of global warming by itself can cause changes in vegetation cover. The objective of this work was to investigate the possible changes on the major Brazilian biome, the Amazon Rainforest, under different climate change scenarios. The dynamic vegetation models may simulate changes in vegetation distribution and the biogeochemical processes due to climate change. Initially, the Inland dynamic vegetation model was forced with initial and boundary conditions provided by CFSR and the Eta regional climate model driven by the historical simulation of HadGEM2-ES. These simulations were validated using the Santarém tower data. In the second part, we assess the impact of a future climate change on the Amazon biome by applying the Inland model forced with regional climate change projections. The projections show that some areas of rainforest in the Amazon region are replaced by deciduous forest type and grassland in RCP4.5 scenario and only by grassland in RCP8.5 scenario at the end of this century. The model indicates a reduction of approximately 9% in the area of tropical forest in RCP4.5 scenario and a further reduction in the RCP8.5 scenario of about 50% in the eastern region of Amazon. Although the increase of CO2 atmospheric concentration may favour the growth of trees, the projections of Eta-HadGEM2-ES show increase of temperature and reduction of rainfall in the Amazon region, which caused the forest degradation in these simulations.

Climate and nest opening orientation in Furnarius rufus (Furnariidae)

The Rufous Hornero (Furnarius rufus) is one of the most common bird species in Brazil. Anecdotal information indicates that nest opening orientation in this species is contrary to wind or rainfall direction. To check for the existence of such a pattern, F. rufus nests were randomly sampled within an urban area in central Brazil to assess whether factors such as wind and vegetation cover influence nest opening orientation. Using circular statistics, no evidence was found that nest-opening orientation was important for the species. These results refuse the expected pattern for tree hollow or enclosed nests. The results suggest that factors such as nesting architecture, nest material, nest microclimate or a combination of these, instead of local climate, must be conditioning nesting behavior in this species.

21st century climate change threatens mountain flora unequally across Europe

Continental-scale assessments of 21st century global impacts of climate change on biodiversity have forecasted range contractions for many species. These coarse resolution studies are, however, of limited relevance for projecting risks to biodiversity in mountain systems, where pronounced microclimatic variation could allow species to persist locally, and are ill-suited for assessment of species-specific threat in particular regions. Here, we assess the impacts of climate change on 2632 plant species across all major European mountain ranges, using high-resolution (ca. 100 m) species samples and data expressing four future climate scenarios. Projected habitat loss is greater for species distributed at higher elevations; depending on the climate scenario, we find 36-55% of alpine species, 31-51% of subalpine species and 19-46% of montane species lose more than 80% of their suitable habitat by 2070-2100. While our high-resolution analyses consistently indicate marked levels of threat to cold-adapted mountain florae across Europe, they also reveal unequal distribution of this threat across the various mountain ranges. Impacts on florae from regions projected to undergo increased warming accompanied by decreased precipitation, such as the Pyrenees and the Eastern Austrian Alps, will likely be greater than on florae in regions where the increase in temperature is less pronounced and rainfall increases concomitantly, such as in the Norwegian Scandes and the Scottish Highlands. This suggests that change in precipitation, not only warming, plays an important role in determining the potential impacts of climate change on vegetation.

Early Cretaceous life, climate and anoxia

Early Cretaceous life and the environment were strongly influenced by the accelerated break up of Pangaea, which was associated with the formation of a multitude of rift basins, intensified spreading, and important volcanic activity on land and in the sea. These processes likely interacted with greenhouse conditions, and Early Cretaceous climate oscillated between "normal" greenhouse, predominantly arid conditions, and intensified greenhouse, predominantly humid conditions. Arid conditions were important during the latest Jurassic and early Berriasian, the late Barremian, and partly also during the late Aptian. Humid conditions were particularly intense and widespread during shorter episodes of environmental change (EECs): the Valanginian Weissert, the latest Hauterivian Faraoni, the latest Barremian earliest Aptian Taxy, the early Aptian Selli, the early late Aptian Fallot and the late Aptian-early Albian Paquier episodes. Arid conditions were associated with evaporation, low biogeochemical weathering rates, low nutrient fluxes, and partly stratified oceans, leading to oxygen depletion and enhanced preservation of laminated, organic-rich mud (LOM). Humid conditions enabled elevated biogeochemical weathering rates and nutrient fluxes, important runoff and the buildup of freshwater lids in proximal basins, intensified oceanic and atmospheric circulation, widespread upwelling and phosphogenesis, important primary productivity and enhanced preservation of LOM in expanded oxygen-minimum zones. The transition of arid to humid climates may have been associated with the net transfer of water to the continent owing to the infill of dried-out groundwater reservoirs in internally drained inland basins. This resulted in shorter-term sea-level fall, which was followed by sea-level rise. These sea-level changes and the influx of freshwater into the ocean may have influenced oxygen-isotope signatures. Climate change preceding and during the Early Cretaceous EECs may have been rapid, but in general, the EECs had a "pre"-history, during which the stage was set for environmental change. Negative feedback on the climate through increased marine LOM preservation was unlikely, because of the low overall organic-carbon accumulation rates during these episodes. Life and climate co-evolved during the Early Cretaceous. Arid conditions may have affected continental life, such as across the Tithonian/Berriasian boundary. Humid conditions and the corresponding tendency to develop dys- to anaerobic conditions in deeper ocean waters led to phases of accelerated extinction in oceans, but may have led to more luxuriant vegetation cover on continents, such as during the Valanginian, to the benefit of herbivores. During Early Cretaceous EECs, reef systems and carbonate platforms in general were particularly vulnerable. They were the first to disappear and the last to recover, often only after several million years. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Remediation of a marine shore tailings deposit and the importance of water-rock interaction on element cycling in the coastal aquifer

We present the study of the geochemical processes associated with the first successful remediation of a marine shore tailings deposit in a coastal desert environment (Bahia de Ite, in the Atacama Desert of Peru). The remediation approach implemented a wetland on top of the oxidized tailings. The site is characterized by a high hydrauliz gradient produced by agricultural irrigation on upstream gravel terraces that pushed river water (similar to 500 mg/L SO(4)) toward the sea and through the tailings deposit. The geochemical and isotopic (delta(2)H(water) and delta(18)O(water), delta(34)S(sulfate) , delta(18)O(sulfate)) approach applied here revealed that evaporite horizons (anhydrite and halite) in the gravel terraces are the source of increased concentrations of SO(4), Cl, and Na up to similar to 1500 mg/L in the springs at the base of the gravel terraces. Deeper groundwater interacting with underlying marine sequences increased the concentrations of SO(4), Cl, and Na up to 6000 mg/L and increased the alkalinity up to 923 mg/L CaCO(3) eq. in the coastal aquifer. These waters infiltrated into the tailings deposit at the shelf-tailings interface. Nonremediated tailings had a low-pH oxidation zone (pH 1-4) with significant accumulations of efflorescent salts (10-20 cm thick) at the surface because of upward capillary transport of metal cations in the arid climate. Remediated tailings were characterized by neutral pH and reducing conditions (pH similar to 7, Eh similar to 100 mV). As a result, most bivalent metals such as Cu, Zn, and Ni had very low concentrations (around 0.01 mg/L or below detection limit) because of reduction and sorption processes. In contrast, these reducing conditions increased the mobility of iron from two sources in this system: (1) The originally Fe(III)-rich oxidation zone, where Fe(II) was reduced during the remediation process and formed an Fe(II) plume, and (2) reductive dissolution of Fe(III) oxides present in the original shelf lithology formed an Fe-Mn plume at 10-m depth. These two Fe-rich plumes were pushed toward the shoreline where more oxidizing and higher pH conditions triggered the precipitation of Fe(HI)hydroxide coatings on silicates. These coatings acted as a filter for the arsenic, which naturally infiltrated with the river water (similar to 500 mu g/L As natural background) into the tailings deposit.