Time-variations in commodity price jumps

In this paper, we study jumps in commodity prices. Unlike assumed in existing models of commodity price dynamics, a simple analysis of the data reveals that the probability of tail events is not constant but depends on the time of the year, i.e. exhibits seasonality. We propose a stochastic volatility jump–diffusion model to capture this seasonal variation. Applying the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methodology, we estimate our model using 20 years of futures data from four different commodity markets. We find strong statistical evidence to suggest that our model with seasonal jump intensity outperforms models featuring a constant jump intensity. To demonstrate the practical relevance of our findings, we show that our model typically improves Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasts.

Exploring the effects of genotypical and phenotypical variations in bitter taste sensitivity on perception, liking and intake of brassica vegetables in the UK

Brassicaceous vegetables (BV) have chemoprotective effects and yet consumption of BV in the UK is low. Previous studies suggest perception, liking and intake of BV are influenced by bitter taste sensitivity which this study further explores. Phenotypical taste sensitivity of 136 subjects was classified using propythiouracil (PROP) and sodium chloride and fungiform papillae density (FPD) was measured from tongue images. Polymorphisms of TAS2R38 and gustin (CA6) genes were analysed. Liking and bitterness of four raw vegetables (two BV (broccoli and white cabbage) and two non-BV (spinach and courgette)), as well as habitual consumption, were evaluated. There was a significant association between TAS2R38 genotype and PROP taster status (p<0.0001) and between FPD and PROP taster status (p=0.029). Individuals with greater sensitivity for PROP predominantly had TAS2R38 PAV/PAV genotype and greater FPD. BV were perceived as more bitter than non-BV (p<0.0001) with PAV/PAV subjects perceiving significantly stronger bitter intensity. There was a significant difference in liking for the four vegetables (p=0.002), and between consumers of different TAS2R38 genotype (p=0.0024). Individuals with TAS2R38 AVI/AVI genotype liked BV more. Regarding intake, both PAV/PAV and AVI/AVI individuals consumed more total vegetables and BV than PAV/AVI. Although PROP nontasters tended to consume more vegetables and BV than the other two phenotype groups, liking and vegetable intake were not significantly affected by taste phenotype. Although there was not a significant effect of CA6 genotype on bitterness ratings, there was a significant interaction between CA6 and TAS2R38, and in addition CA6 genotype was significantly associated with BV intake. However, these effects require validation as the proportions of the population with the CA6 G/G genotype was extremely small (7%). Our results confirmed that bitter taste perception in vegetables was influenced by both genotype and phenotype of bitter taste sensitivity. Moreover, our findings demonstrated that neither genotype nor phenotype of taste sensitivity alone accurately predict vegetable liking and intake as demographic factors were found to have a substantial influence.

Processes and variations in language economisation

This article analyses the processes of reducing language in textchats produced by non-native speakers of English. We propose that forms are reduced because of their high frequency and because of the discourse context. A wide variety of processes are attested in the literature, and we find different forms of clippings in our data, including mixtures of different clippings, homophone respellings, phonetic respellings including informal oral forms, initialisms (but no acronyms), and mixtures of clipping together with homophone and phonetic respellings. Clippings were the most frequent process (especially back-clippings and initialisms), followed by homophone respellings. There were different ways of metalinguistically marking reduction, but capitalisation was by far the most frequent. There is much individual variation in the frequencies of the different processes, although most were within normal distribution. The fact that nonnative speakers seem to generally follow reduction patterns of native speakers suggests that reduction is a universal process.

Towards a measure of income inequality freed from the volatility caused by variations in the rate of unemployment

By mixing together inequalities based on cyclical variables, such as unemployment, and on structural variables, such as education, usual measurements of income inequality add objects of a di§erent economic nature. Since jobs are not acquired or lost as fast as education or skills, this aggreagation leads to a loss of relavant economic information. Here I propose a di§erent procedure for the calculation of inequality. The procedure uses economic theory to construct an inequality measure of a long-run character, the calculation of which can be performed, though, with just one set of cross-sectional observations. Technically, the procedure is based on the uniqueness of the invariant distribution of wage o§ers in a job-search model. Workers should be pre-grouped by the distribution of wage o§ers they see, and only between-group inequalities should be considered. This construction incorporates the fact that the average wages of all workers in the same group tend to be equalized by the continuous turnover in the job market.

Volatility of returns, variations in prices and volume traded: evidence from the main stocks in Brazil

We study the relationship between the volatility and the price of stocks and the impact that variables such as past volatility, financial gearing, interest rates, stock return and turnover have on the present volatility of these securities. The results show the persistent behavior of volatility and the relationship between interest rate and volatility. The results also showed that a reduction in stock prices are associated with an increase in volatility. Finally we found a greater trading volume tends to increase the volatility.

Seasonal variations in chemical composition and stable isotopes of farmed and wild Brazilian freshwater fish

This study examined variations in the Fulton condition factor, chemical composition, and stable isotopes of carbon and nitrogen in the Brazilian freshwater fish cachara (Pseudoplatystoma fasciatum), comparing farmed and wild fish in different seasons. Values for energy, protein, moisture, and Fulton's condition factor were higher for farmed than for wild fish in the rainy season, indicating better nutritional quality; however, these differences were not observed in the dry season. Likewise, we found significant enhancement of delta(15)N in farmed fish in the rainy season but not in the dry season, whereas enhancement of delta(13)C was observed in both seasons. The combined measurement of delta(13)C and delta(15)N provided traceability under all conditions. Our findings show that stable isotope analysis of C and N can be used to trace cachara origin, and that seasonal variations need to be considered when applying chemical and isotopic authentication of fish and fish products. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Annual variations in fecal androgen metabolites and antler cycle of captive red brocket bucks (Mazama americana) in southeast Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Effect of pH variations in a cycling model on the properties of restorative materials

This study evaluated the effect of cycling various pH demineralizing solutions on the surface hardness, fluoride release and surface properties of restorative materials (Ketac-Fil Plus, Vitremer, Fuji II LC, Freedom and Fluorofil). Thirty specimens of each material were made and the surface hardness measured. The specimens were randomized into five groups according to the pH (4.3; 4.6; 5.0; 5.5 and 6.2) of the demineralizing solution. The specimens were submitted to pH-cycling for 15 days. The specimens remained in the demineralizing solution for six hours and in the remineralizing solution for 18 hours. Then, the surface hardness (SH) was remeasured and the surface properties were assessed. Fluoride release was determined daily. Data from SH and the percentage of alteration in surface hardness were analyzed by analysis of variance (p < 0.05); the Kruskal-Wallis test was performed for the fluoride release results. When hardness was compared, the variation in pH led to a positive correlation for glass ionomer cements and a negative correlation for fluoride release. For polyacid-modified resin composites, a negative correlation was found with regards to fluoride release; no significant correlation was observed for hardness. Surface properties were influenced: an acidic pH led to a greater alteration, except for polyacid-modified resin composites. The pH of the demineralizing solution influenced fluoride release from the tested materials. The pH variation altered hardness and surface properties of glass ionomer cements but did not influence polyacid-modified resin composites.

Variations in maternal care alter corticosterone and 17beta-estradiol levels, estrous cycle and folliculogenesis and stimulate the expression of estrogen receptors alpha and beta in the ovaries of UCh rats

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Structural variations in root and stem wood of Styrax (Styracaceae) from Brazilian forest and cerrado

The genus Styrax L. (Styracaceae) has a wide distribution in Brazil, occurring in diverse ecosystems. To get a better insight into the ecological adaptations of wood structure, we studied two species, S. camporum and S.ferrugineus from the cerrado, and three species, S. latifolium, S. martii and S. leprosus from the Atlantic forest. For each species, the wood of root and stem was analyzed separately and observations included qualitative as well as quantitative wood characteristics. The results show that there were significant anatomical differences between the forest and cerrado species as well as between the root and stem wood within single species. Quantitatively, the most informative features in the root wood that separated the forest from the cerrado, species were diameter, length and number of vessels, length of fibres, and width and frequency of rays. In the stem wood, length and frequency of vessels, length of fibres, and width and frequency of rays were the most informative features. In contrast to the forest species, which had larger vessel diameters in their stem wood, the cerrado species had larger vessel diameters in their root wood. The calculated vulnerability index indicates that all Sryrax species have adaptations to mesic conditions. The cerrado species had the smallest index values, which could be related to the seasonally dry condition of this environment.

Geographic variations in the composition of myotoxins from Bothrops neuwiedi snake venoms: biochemical characterization and biological activity

(1) Venom pools from Bothrops neuwiedi (Bn) and from two subspecies, namely Bothrops neuwiedi pauloensis (Bnp) and Bothrops neuwiedi urutu (Bnu), collected in the States of São Paulo (SP) and Minas Gerais (MG), Brazil, were electrophoretically examined. Basic toxins with different isoelectric points were identified in the venom collected in São Paulo (BnSP). These toxins were absent in the corresponding pools from Minas Gerais (BnMG, BnpMG and BnuMG). (2) BnSP, but not BnMG, BnpMG or BnuMG, showed two myotoxins (pI congruent to 8.6 and 8.8, respectively) which were isolated by ion-exchange chromatography on CM-Sepharose. (3) From BnMG, three myotoxic isoforms (pI congruent to 8.2 and M-r = 13600) were isolated by chromatography on CM-Sepharose followed by reversed-phase high-performance liquid chromatography. (4) the chemical and biological characterization of these toxins showed a high similarity with the Lys-49 myotoxins from other bothropic venoms. (5) Doses up to 5 LD50 (i.p.) of p-bromophenacyl bromide alkylated BnSP-7 caused a total loss of lethality in 18-22-g mice, thus indicating that the LD50 was increased by greater than 5-fold. At this dose myotoxicity was also not detectable, but the edematogenic activity on the rat paw apparently did not change. (C) 1998 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Diel variations in decapod catch rate and size of captured individuals in a subtropical area of Brazil

Diel variations in decapod crustaceans catch rate, as well as variations in size of sampled individuals, were investigated in a sublittoral portion of Ubatuba Bay (23 degrees 20', 23 degrees 35'S and 44 degrees 50', 45 degrees 14'W) in order to detect differential patterns of occurrence. Three replicate trawls, each enclosing a 2,500 m(2) area, were performed at a median depth of 3.5 m during the waning moon period, in 3 consecutive summer and winter months. Trawls were conducted at dawn, noon, dusk and midnight. Hydrological and substratum features were monitored. Penaeoideans did not show a significant diel catch rate variation during the sampling periods, but the catch rate of brachyurans was highest at dusk and midnight during winter (p < 0.01). Fixing diel variation, catch rates of both brachyurans and penaeoideans are subjected to significant seasonal differences (p < 0.05). The largest specimens of Callinectes ornatus, Xiphopenaeus kroyeri, Rimapenaeus constrictus and Farfantepenaeus spp were found at twilight during summer. Differences on size of captured individuals mainly in samples of portunids and penaeids taken during the course of the day evidences that significant daily movements take place. This confirms that activity alterations depend on characteristics of daily schedules and on environmental demands of studied species.

Feeding selectivity of ichthyofauna in a tropical stream: space-time variations in trophic plasticity

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Variations in dynamic knee valgus and gluteus medius onset timing in non-athletic females related to hormonal changes during the menstrual cycle

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)