Use of generalised additive models to categorise continuous variables in clinical prediction

13 P.

The influence of some environmental variables on the apparent abundance of skipjack tuna, Katsuwonus pelamis, in the Eastern Pacific Ocean

ENGLISH: The abundance of skipjack larvae in the central and western Pacific approximately doubled for every 1°C increase in sea-surface temperature (SST) from 23°C to a maximum of about 29°C, and then usually decreased with further increases in SST. Skipjack larvae are scarce in the eastern Pacific Ocean (EPO), so most skipjack recruits and adults in this area are believed to have originated in the central and, possibly, the western Pacific. The catch per unit of effort (CPUE), in short tons per day's fishing, and the catch rate, in number of fish per day's fishing, are estimates of apparent abundance in a fishery. The logarithm of the annual CPUE for skipjack for international baitboats in the EPO for the 1934-1960 period was positively correlated with SST in the spawning area in the central Pacific 18 months earlier (r2 0.31), during the July-June period when most of the recruits in each cohort were presumed to have been spawned. Adequate data for other environmental variables were not available for testing with the baitboat data. The other environmental variables available and selected for testing for correlation with estimates of skipjack abundance for purse seiners for the 1961-1984 period and the reasons for their selection are as follows. 1)Wind-mixing index (WMI). The degree of mixing in the upper layers of the ocean is proportional to the cube of the wind speed, called WMI. The degree of mixing in the spawning areas of the central and the western Pacific may affect the concentration of organisms that skipjack larvae feed upon, thereby influencing their survival, and ultimately determining cohort strength and the number of recruits to the eastern Pacific fishery. 2) SST in the fishing areas at the time of fishing (SST). The CPUE for yellowfin tuna has been shown to be inversely related to SST in the fishing areas, and there are indications that skipjack CPUE is lower during EI Nino events when SST is higher than normal. 3) North-south SST gradient across the thermal front off the Gulf of Guayaquil. This is a measure of the degree of upwelling and nutrient enrichment of the upper waters south of the front and ultimately of the production of food for tunas. 4) Speed of the North Equatorial Countercurrent (NECC). Young skipjack may migrate from the central Pacific to the EPO in the eastward flowing NECC; if so, the number of recruits might be affected by variations in the speed of the current. The logarithm of the annual catch rate of skipjack recruits by international purse seiners in the EPO for the 1961-1984 period was positively correlated with SST in the spawning area of the central Pacific 18 months earlier (r2 = 0.21),and inversely correlated with WMI in the spawning area 18 months earlier (r2 0.46). The logarithm of CPUE for purse seiners in the area off the Gulf of Guayaquil was not correlated with SST in the spawning area 18 months earlier, but was inversely correlated with WMI in the spawning area 18 months earlier (r2 = 0.19), and inversely correlated with the north-south SST gradient in the fishing area at the time of fishing (r2 0.32). Neither of these estimates of apparent abundance from purse seiners were correlated with SST in the fishing areas, or with the speed of the NECC at earlier times. SPANISH: La abundancia de larvas de barrilete en el Pacífico central y occidental se multiplicó por dos, aproximadamente, por cada aumento de 1°Cen la temperatura de la superficie del mar (TSM) entre 23°C y un máximo de unos 29°C, y luego generalmente disminuyó con más aumentos en la TSM. Las larvas de barrilete son escasas en el Océano Pacífico oriental (OPO), y por lo tanto se cree que la mayoría de los reclutas y adultos en esta zona surgieron del Pacífico central, y posiblemente también del Pacífico occidental. La captura por unidad de esfuerzo (CPUE), en toneladas cortas por día de pesca, y la tasa de captura, en número de peces por día de pesca, son estimaciones de la abundancia aparente en una pesquería. El logaritmo de la CPUE anual de barrilete lograda por barcos de carnada en el OPO en el período 1934-1960 se correlacionó positivamente con la TSM en la zona de desove en el Pacífico central de 18 meses antes (r2 = 0.31), durante el período de junio-julio en el cual se cree que nació la mayoría de los reclutas en cada cohorte. No se dispuso de datos suficientes sobre otras variables ambientales para comprobarlos con los datos de los barcos de carnada. Las demás variables ambientales disponibles y seleccionadas para someterlas a pruebas de correlación con las estimaciones de la abundancia del barrilete de barcos cerqueros en el período 1961-1984, y las razones por su selección, son las siguientes: 1) Indice de mezcla por el viento (IMV). El grado de mezcla en las capas superiores del océano es proporcional al cubo de la velocidad del viento, llamado IMV. Es posible que el grado de mezcla en las zonas de desove del Pacífico central y occidental afecte la concentración de los organismos que alimentan a las larvas del barrilete, afectando así la supervivencia de éstas, y finalmente determinando el tamaño de las cohortes y el número de reclutas a la pesquería del OPO. 2) TSM en la zona de pesca al realizarse la pesca (TSM). Se ha mostrado que la relación de la CPUE del atún aleta amarilla a la TSM en la zona de pesca es inversa, y existen indicaciones que la CPUE de barrilete es inferior durante eventos del Niño, cuando las TSM son superiores a lo normal. 3) Gradiente norte-sur de las TSM a través del frente térmico frente al Golfo de Guayaquil. Esto es una medida del grado de afloramiento y enriquecimiento nutritivo del nivel superior de las aguas al sur de dicho frente, y finalmente de la producción de alimento para los atunes. 4) La velocidad de la Contracorriente Ecuatorial del Norte (CCEN). Es posible que los bariletes juveniles migren del Pacífico central al Pacífico oriental en la CCEN, que fluye hacia el este; de ser así, es posible que la cantidad de reclutas se vea afectada por variaciones en la velocidad de la corriente. El logaritmo de la tasa anual de captura de reclutas de barrilete por cerqueros de varias banderas en el OPO en el período 1961-1964 estuvo correlacionado de forma positiva con las TSM en la zona de desove del Pacífico central de 18meses antes (r2 0.21),y de forma inversa con el IMV de la zona de desove de 18 meses antes (r2 0.46). El logaritmo de la CPUE de los cerqueros en la zona frente al Golfo de Guayaquil no estuvo correlacionado con las TSM en la zona de desove de 18 meses antes, pero sí estuvo correlacionado de forma inversa con el IMV en la zona de desove de 18 meses antes (r2 0.19),y con el gradiente norte-sur de las TSM en la zona de pesca al realizarse la pesca (r2 0.32). Ninguna de estas estimaciones de abundancia aparente provenientes de barcos cerqueros estuvo correlacionada con las TSM en las zonas de pesca o con la velocidad de la CCEN en épocas anteriores. (PDF contains 140 pages.)

Searches for new symmetries in pp collisions with the razor kinematic variables at √s = 7 TeV

The construction and LHC phenomenology of the razor variables M_R, an event-by-event indicator of the heavy particle mass scale, and R, a dimensionless variable related to the transverse momentum imbalance of events and missing transverse energy, are presented.  The variables are used  in the analysis of the first proton-proton collisions dataset at CMS  (35 pb^-1) in a search for superpartners of the quarks and gluons, targeting indirect hints of dark matter candidates in the context of supersymmetric theoretical frameworks. The analysis produced the highest sensitivity results for SUSY to date and extended the LHC reach far beyond the previous Tevatron results.  A generalized inclusive search is subsequently presented for new heavy particle pairs produced in √s = 7 TeV proton-proton collisions at the LHC using 4.7±0.1 fb^-1 of integrated luminosity from the second LHC run of 2011.  The selected events are analyzed in the 2D razor-space of M_R and R and the analysis is performed in 12 tiers of all-hadronic, single and double leptons final states in the presence and absence of b-quarks, probing the third generation sector using the event heavy-flavor content.   The search is sensitive to generic supersymmetry models with minimal assumptions about the superpartner decay chains. No excess is observed in the number or shape of event yields relative to Standard Model predictions. Exclusion limits are derived in the CMSSM framework with  gluino masses up to 800 GeV and squark masses up to 1.35 TeV excluded at 95% confidence level, depending on the model parameters. The results are also interpreted for a collection of simplified models, in which gluinos are excluded with masses as large as 1.1 TeV, for small neutralino masses, and the first-two generation squarks, stops and sbottoms are excluded for masses up to about 800, 425 and 400 GeV, respectively.

With the discovery of a new boson by the CMS and ATLAS experiments in the γ-γ and 4 lepton final states, the identity of the putative Higgs candidate must be established through the measurements of its properties. The spin and quantum numbers are of particular importance, and we describe a method for measuring the J^PC of this particle using the observed signal events in the H to ZZ^* to 4 lepton channel developed before the discovery. Adaptations of the razor kinematic variables are introduced for the H to WW^* to 2 lepton/2 neutrino channel, improving the resonance mass resolution and increasing the discovery significance. The prospects for incorporating this channel in an examination of the new boson J^PC is discussed, with indications that this it could provide complementary information to the H to ZZ^* to 4 lepton final state, particularly for measuring CP-violation in these decays.

Environmental variables and fisheries diversity of the Naaf River Estuary, Bangladesh

The Naaf River estuary is one of the large estuaries in the Bangladesh coastal region not to have been affected by extensive human disturbance. This research provides information about the fisheries diversity status by Estuarine Set Bag Net (ESBN) sampling relation to physicochemical variables in both spatio-temporal scales. About 25 km of the lower estuary was divided into six zones for sample collection by considering the accessibility and availability of the ESBN operation, fish landing centers and location of the fishing villages. In total 48 samples have been analyzed which were taken throughout March to October 2006. To quantify the species diversity, all fisheries data were analyzed by using EstimateS and EcoSim software which accounts the different diversity indices viz., species richness, Shannon–Wiener diversity Index, Dominance and Evenness index. The research results demonstrate that the Naaf River estuary is a habitat of 161 (species richness, Sobs=161, Choa 1=162±2.34, ACE=161.73) different species which belong to 98 fin fishes, 23 shrimps and prawns,13 crabs, 11 molluscs, 3 echinoderms, 4 other crustaceans;while 9 remain unidentified. Results on the aquatic environment,mainly salinity and turbidity were found to have a major influence on their occurrence and distribution. All the findings indicated that the Naaf River estuary is a highly productive system and provides a favourable environment for large variety of estuarine species assemblages.

Neural and computational representations of decision variables

These studies explore how, where, and when representations of variables critical to decision-making are represented in the brain. In order to produce a decision, humans must first determine the relevant stimuli, actions, and possible outcomes before applying an algorithm that will select an action from those available. When choosing amongst alternative stimuli, the framework of value-based decision-making proposes that values are assigned to the stimuli and that these values are then compared in an abstract “value space” in order to produce a decision. Despite much progress, in particular regarding the pinpointing of ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) as a region that encodes the value, many basic questions remain. In Chapter 2, I show that distributed BOLD signaling in vmPFC represents the value of stimuli under consideration in a manner that is independent of the type of stimulus it is. Thus the open question of whether value is represented in abstraction, a key tenet of value-based decision-making, is confirmed. However, I also show that stimulus-dependent value representations are also present in the brain during decision-making and suggest a potential neural pathway for stimulus-to-value transformations that integrates these two results.

More broadly speaking, there is both neural and behavioral evidence that two distinct control systems are at work during action selection. These two systems compose the “goal-directed system”, which selects actions based on an internal model of the environment, and the “habitual” system, which generates responses based on antecedent stimuli only. Computational characterizations of these two systems imply that they have different informational requirements in terms of input stimuli, actions, and possible outcomes. Associative learning theory predicts that the habitual system should utilize stimulus and action information only, while goal-directed behavior requires that outcomes as well as stimuli and actions be processed. In Chapter 3, I test whether areas of the brain hypothesized to be involved in habitual versus goal-directed control represent the corresponding theorized variables.

The question of whether one or both of these neural systems drives Pavlovian conditioning is less well-studied. Chapter 4 describes an experiment in which subjects were scanned while engaged in a Pavlovian task with a simple non-trivial structure. After comparing a variety of model-based and model-free learning algorithms (thought to underpin goal-directed and habitual decision-making, respectively), it was found that subjects’ reaction times were better explained by a model-based system. In addition, neural signaling of precision, a variable based on a representation of a world model, was found in the amygdala. These data indicate that the influence of model-based representations of the environment can extend even to the most basic learning processes.

Knowledge of the state of hidden variables in an environment is required for optimal inference regarding the abstract decision structure of a given environment and therefore can be crucial to decision-making in a wide range of situations. Inferring the state of an abstract variable requires the generation and manipulation of an internal representation of beliefs over the values of the hidden variable. In Chapter 5, I describe behavioral and neural results regarding the learning strategies employed by human subjects in a hierarchical state-estimation task. In particular, a comprehensive model fit and comparison process pointed to the use of "belief thresholding". This implies that subjects tended to eliminate low-probability hypotheses regarding the state of the environment from their internal model and ceased to update the corresponding variables. Thus, in concert with incremental Bayesian learning, humans explicitly manipulate their internal model of the generative process during hierarchical inference consistent with a serial hypothesis testing strategy.

Changes in physical and chemical variables

An article reviewing the work undertaken looking at the seasonal variation of chemical conditions in water at various depths in lakes. The laboratory tests undertaken for the research is outlined, as well as details of the sampling locations and the staff involved with the work. One figure shows the seasonal variation in the amounts of dissolved substances in the surface water of Windermere during 1936. Another figure shows seasonal varation inthe dry weight of phyto- and zooplankton in Windermere. Seasonal changes are discussed further and a table is included showing chemical conditions in winter and summer for Windermere.

Polímeros de Coordinación con Centros Metálicos en Entornos de Coordinación Variables: Posibles Aplicaciones.

Presentación de power point. Comunicación oral presentada en el 1er Simposium sobre Propiedades y Aplicaciones de MOFs y COFs, celebrado en Granada en abril de 2015

Valorization of scrap tires pyrolysis oil (STPO) through a 2-stage hydrotreating-hydrocracking strategy. Process variables and kinetic modeling

232 p.

Hidrocraqueo de aromáticos ligeros a n-alcanos C2+. Variables de proceso y modelado cinético

323 p.