The Uniform World Model: A Methodology for Predicting the Health Impacts of Air Pollution

47 p.

Decarbonising urban transportation

18 p.

Implications of governance structures on urban climate action: evidence from Italy and Spain

47 p.

Impacts of fishing gears, fishing methods and fishing effort in the fisheries of Lake Victoria and proposals for management

The initial subsistence fisheries of Lake Victoria were dominated by two indigenous tilapiines, Oreochromis esculentus (Graham 1929) and Oreochromis variabilis Boulenger 1906, exploited with simple fishing crafts and gears that had little impact on the fish stocks (Jackson 1971). Commercial fisheries, targeting the tilapia fishery, started at the beginning of the 20th Centurywhen cotton flax gillnets were first introduced in 1905 into the Nyanza Gulf in Kenya. Gillnets were quickly adopted around the whole lake and consequently, the native methods of fishing soon died out (Jackson 1971). Following the introduction of gillnets, fishing boats and their propulsion methods were also improved. These improvements in fishing capacity coincided with development of urban centres and increasing human population around the lake, which increased the demand for fishery products. To satisfy the increasing demand, fishing effort increased greatly during the 20th century, despite the decline of catch per unit of effort (CPUE) (Jackson 1971; Ogutu-Ohwayo 1990). The initial catch rates of 127mm (5 inch) mesh size gill nets in the tilapia-based fishery, in 1905, was in the range of 50 to 100 fish per gillnet of approximately 50 m in length. However, twenty years later, the catch rates of gillnets of the same mesh size had declined to about six fish per net and gillnets of smaller mesh sizes, which had better catch rates, had been introduced suggesting overfishing (Worthington and Worthington, 1933).

Estimating water quality pollution impacts based on economic loss models in urbanization process in Xi'an；China

IEECAS SKLLQG

Analysis of spatio-temporal dynamic pattern and driving forces of urban land in China in 1990s using TM images and GIS

China has witnessed fast urban growth in the recent decade. This study analyzes spatio-temporal characteristics of urban expansion in China using satellite images and regionalization methods. Landsat TM images at three time periods, 1990/1991, 1995/1996, and 1999/2000, are interpreted to get 1:100000 vector land use datasets. The study calculates the urban land percentage and urban land expansion index of every 1 km(2) cell throughout China. The study divides China into 27 urban regions to conceive dynamic patterns of urban land changes. Urban development was achieving momentum in the western region, expanding more noticeably than in the previous five years, and seeing an increased growth percentage. Land use dynamic changes reflect the strong impacts of economic growth environments and macro-urban development policies. The paper helps to distinguish the influences of newly market-oriented forces from traditional administrative controls on China's urban expansion. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ecological homogenization of urban USA

A visually apparent but scientifically untested outcome of land-use change is homogenization across urban areas, where neighborhoods in different parts of the country have similar patterns of roads, residential lots, commercial areas, and aquatic features. We hypothesize that this homogenization extends to ecological structure and also to ecosystem functions such as carbon dynamics and microclimate, with continental-scale implications. Further, we suggest that understanding urban homogenization will provide the basis for understanding the impacts of urban land-use change from local to continental scales. Here, we show how multi-scale, multidisciplinary datasets from six metropolitan areas that cover the major climatic regions of the US (Phoenix, AZ; Miami, FL; Baltimore, MD; Boston, MA; Minneapolis-St Paul, MN; and Los Angeles, CA) can be used to determine how household and neighborhood characteristics correlate with land-management practices, land-cover composition, and landscape structure and ecosystem functions at local, regional, and continental scales. © The Ecological Society of America.

The Olympic Games and urban displacement: the case of Beijing

Urban spectacles such as the Olympic Games have been long perceived as being able to impose desired effects in the city that act as host. This kind of urban boost may include the creation of new jobs and revenue for local community, growth in tourism and convention business, improvements to city infrastructure and environment, and the stimulation of broad reform in the social, political and institutional realm. Nevertheless at the other end of the debate, the potentially detrimental impacts of Olympic urban development, particularly on disadvantaged and vulnerable groups, have also been increasingly noticed in recent years and subsequently cited by a number of high profile anti-Olympic groups to campaign against Olympic bids and awards. The common areas of concern over Olympic-related projects include the cost and debts risk, environmental threat, the occurrence of social imbalance, and disruption and disturbance of existing community life. Among these issues, displacement of low income households and squatter communities resulting from Olympic-inspired urban renewal are comparatively under-explored and have emerged as an imperative area for research inquiry. This is particularly the case where many other problems have become less prominent. Changing a city’s demographic landscape, particularly displacing lower income people from the area proposed for a profitable development is a highly contentious matter in its own right. Some see it as a natural and inevitable outgrowth of the process of urban evolution, without which cities cannot move towards a more attractive location for consumption-based business. Others believe it reflects urban crises and conflicts, highlighting the market failures, polarization and injustice. Regardless of perception,these phenomena are visible everywhere in post-industrial cities and particularly cannot be ignored when planning for the Olympic Games and other mega-events. The aim of this paper is to start the process of placing the displacement issue in the context of Olympic preparation and to seek a better understanding of their interrelations. In order to develop a better understanding of this issue in terms of cause, process, influential factors and its implication on planning policy, this paper studies the topic from both theoretic and empirical angles. It portrays various situations where the Olympics may trigger or facilitate displacement in host cities during the preparation of the Games, identifies several major variables that may affect the process and the overall outcome, and explores what could be learnt in generic terms for planning Olympic oriented infrastructure so that ill-effects to the local community can be effectively controlled. The paper concludes that the selection of development sites, the integration of Olympic facilities with the city’s fabric, the diversity of housing type produced for local residents and the dynamics of the new socioeconomic structure.

Detection of Emerging and Re-Emerging Pathogens in Surface Waters Close to an Urban Area

Current knowledge about the spread of pathogens in aquatic environments is scarce probably because bacteria, viruses, algae and their toxins tend to occur at low concentrations in water, making them very difficult to measure directly. The purpose of this study was the development and validation of tools to detect pathogens in freshwater systems close to an urban area. In order to evaluate anthropogenic impacts on water microbiological quality, a phylogenetic microarray was developed in the context of the EU project µAQUA to detect simultaneously numerous pathogens and applied to samples from two different locations close to an urban area located upstream and downstream of Rome in the Tiber River. Furthermore, human enteric viruses were also detected. Fifty liters of water were collected and concentrated using a hollow-fiber ultrafiltration approach. The resultant concentrate was further size-fractionated through a series of decreasing pore size filters. RNA was extracted from pooled filters and hybridized to the newly designed microarray to detect pathogenic bacteria, protozoa and toxic cyanobacteria. Diatoms as indicators of the water quality status, were also included in the microarray to evaluate water quality. The microarray results gave positive signals for bacteria, diatoms, cyanobacteria and protozoa. Cross validation of the microarray was performed using standard microbiological methods for the bacteria. The presence of oral-fecal transmitted human enteric-viruses were detected using q-PCR. Significant concentrations of Salmonella, Clostridium, Campylobacter and Staphylococcus as well as Hepatitis E Virus (HEV), noroviruses GI (NoGGI) and GII (NoGII) and human adenovirus 41 (ADV 41) were found in the Mezzocammino site, whereas lower concentrations of other bacteria and only the ADV41 virus was recovered at the Castel Giubileo site. This study revealed that the pollution level in the Tiber River was considerably higher downstream rather than upstream of Rome and the downstream location was contaminated by emerging and re-emerging pathogens.

Energy sustainability indicators for urban environments

Sustainable development comprises of three dimensions. The three dimensions are the environment, the social and the economic. There have been many indicators used to measure the three dimensions of sustainability. For example air pollution, consumption of natural resources, quality of open space, noise, equity and opportunities and economic benefits from transport and land use. Urban areas constitute the most crucial factor in the sustainability. Urban systems affect and are affected by natural systems beyond their physical boundaries and in general the interdependence between the urban system and the regional and global environment is not reflected in urban decision making. The use of energy in the urban system constitutes the major element in the construction and function of urban areas. Energy impacts across the boundaries of the three dimensions of sustainability. The objective of this research is to apply energy-use-indicators to the urban system as a measure of sustainability. This methodology is applied to a case study in the United Kingdom.

The social consequences of broken urban structures: a case study of Belfast

This article explores how the design and layout of the urban environment can have significant social impacts on working class communities whose access to employment and other necessary services depends largely on public transport and safe walk-able streets. It does so by considering a case study of Belfast. Although Belfast has a distinctive recent history as the site of political violence and territorial division, it also has a spatial configuration that emerged out of a modernising roads and redevelopment programme in the 1960s and 1970s. However, an understanding of contemporary Belfast, particularly its urban structure and form, requires n analysis of how the social impacts of such ubiquitous regional and urban planning practices were not addressed. The article argues that a culture of ‘politically safe’ bureaucratic inaction developed during the ‘war years’ has been sustained in the ‘new democracy’. In turn, this has had significant consequences for the functioning of the city. Major areas of derelict land around the city core together with the impediments created by regional road infrastructure have combined to create a doughnut city that, on the one hand, facilitates a commuting middle class, while on the other, discriminates against the poorest inner city communities. The article goes on to examine how an activist urban design group, known as the Forum for Alternative Belfast, has responded to these challenges. It focuses particularly on action-research undertaken during its 2010 Summer School which aimed to address issues of disconnection in inner North Belfast that affect some of the most territorialised and deprived communities in the city.

Urban greenways have the potential to increase physical activity levels cost-effectively

BACKGROUND: For many, physical activity has been engineered out of daily life, leading to high levels of sedentariness and obesity. Multi-faceted physical activity interventions, combining individual, community and environmental approaches, have the greatest potential to improve public health, but few have been evaluated. METHODS: Approximately 100 000 people may benefit from improved opportunities for physical activity through an urban regeneration project in Northern Ireland, the Connswater Community Greenway. Using the macro-simulation PREVENT model, we estimated its potential health impacts and cost-effectiveness. To do so, we modelled its potential impact on the burden from cardiovascular disease, namely, ischaemic heart disease, type 2 diabetes mellitus and stroke, and colon and breast cancer, by the year 2050, if feasible increases in physical activity were to be achieved. RESULTS: If 10% of those classified as 'inactive' (perform less than 150 minutes of moderate activity/week) became 'active', 886 incident cases (1.2%) and 75 deaths (0.9%) could be prevented with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £4469/disability-adjusted life year. For effectiveness estimates as low as 2%, the intervention would remain cost-effective (£18 411/disability-adjusted life year). Small gains in average life expectancy and disability-adjusted life expectancy could be achieved, and the Greenway population would benefit from 46 less years lived with disability. CONCLUSION: The Greenway intervention could be cost-effective at improving physical activity levels. Although the direct health gains are predicted to be small for any individual, summed over an entire population, they are substantial. In addition, the Greenway is likely to have much wider benefits beyond health.

Physical activity and the rejuvenation of Connswater (PARC study): protocol for a natural experiment investigating the impact of urban regeneration on public health

Background: There is a dearth of evidence regarding the impact of urban regeneration projects on public health, particularly the nature and degree to which urban regeneration impacts upon health-related behaviour change. Natural experiment methodology enables comprehensive large-scale evaluations of such interventions. The Connswater Community Greenway in Belfast is a major urban regeneration project involving the development of a 9 km linear park, including the provision of new cycle paths and walkways. In addition to the environmental improvements, this complex intervention involves a number of programmes to promote physical activity in the regenerated area. The project affords a unique opportunity to investigate the public health impact of urban regeneration.

Methods/Design: The evaluation framework was informed by the socio-ecological model and guided by the RE-AIM Framework. Key components include: (1) a quasi-experimental before-and-after survey of the Greenway population (repeated cross-sectional design), in tandem with data from a parallel Northern Ireland-wide survey for comparison; (2) an assessment of changes in the local built environment and of walkability using geographic information systems; (3) semi-structured interviews with a purposive sample of survey respondents, and a range of community stakeholders, before and after the regeneration project; and (4) a cost-effectiveness analysis. The primary outcome is change in proportion of individuals identified as being regularly physically active, according to the current UK recommendations. The RE-AIM Framework will be used to make an overall assessment of the impact of the Greenway on the physical activity behaviour of local residents.

Discussion: The Connswater Community Greenway provides a significant opportunity to achieve long-term, population level behaviour change. We argue that urban regeneration may be conceptualised meaningfully as a complex intervention comprising multiple components with the potential, individually and interactively, to affect the behaviour of a diverse population. The development and implementation of our comprehensive evaluation framework reflects this complexity and illuminates an approach to the empirical, rigorous evaluation of urban regeneration. More specifically, this study will add to the much needed evidence-base about the impact of urban regeneration on public health as well as having important implications for the development of natural experiment methodology.