Using reanalysis data to quantify extreme wind power generation statistics : a 33 year case study in Great Britain

With a rapidly increasing fraction of electricity generation being sourced from wind, extreme wind power generation events such as prolonged periods of low (or high) generation and ramps in generation, are a growing concern for the efficient and secure operation of national power systems. As extreme events occur infrequently, long and reliable meteorological records are required to accurately estimate their characteristics. Recent publications have begun to investigate the use of global meteorological “reanalysis” data sets for power system applications, many of which focus on long-term average statistics such as monthly-mean generation. Here we demonstrate that reanalysis data can also be used to estimate the frequency of relatively short-lived extreme events (including ramping on sub-daily time scales). Verification against 328 surface observation stations across the United Kingdom suggests that near-surface wind variability over spatiotemporal scales greater than around 300 km and 6 h can be faithfully reproduced using reanalysis, with no need for costly dynamical downscaling. A case study is presented in which a state-of-the-art, 33 year reanalysis data set (MERRA, from NASA-GMAO), is used to construct an hourly time series of nationally-aggregated wind power generation in Great Britain (GB), assuming a fixed, modern distribution of wind farms. The resultant generation estimates are highly correlated with recorded data from National Grid in the recent period, both for instantaneous hourly values and for variability over time intervals greater than around 6 h. This 33 year time series is then used to quantify the frequency with which different extreme GB-wide wind power generation events occur, as well as their seasonal and inter-annual variability. Several novel insights into the nature of extreme wind power generation events are described, including (i) that the number of prolonged low or high generation events is well approximated by a Poission-like random process, and (ii) whilst in general there is large seasonal variability, the magnitude of the most extreme ramps is similar in both summer and winter. An up-to-date version of the GB case study data as well as the underlying model are freely available for download from our website: http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~energymet/data/Cannon2014/.

Banrisul: do PROES ao IPO com governança corporativa

The scene prevalecente, in this work was to analyze the capacity of BANRISUL - Bank of the State of the Rio Grande Do Sul, as bank of public control, was assumen of the continued increase of the profitability of the Brazilian banking sector, remaining itself as a brought up to date financial institution tecnologicamente and managemental structuralized by mechanisms of brought up to date taking of decision and permanently revised in compatibility with the increasing instabilidades imposed for the incited competition of the banking sector in adequacy with the macroeconomic volatillidades. On the basis of the extremely positive performance in the analyzed period enters 1997 the 2007, the commercial strategy remains focada in the constant improvement of the rendering of services and in the growth of the credit average small the physical people and the e companies. The abrangência of the attendance points and the ample base of customers are aggregate advantages to an exclusive differential: the Banricompras, the biggest card of proper mark of Latin America. Stronger and income-producing, with an adequate and transparent management, the BANRISUL follows in propósito de to gain position of prominence in the national economic-financial scene.

Checklist of helminths from lizards and amphisbaenians (Reptilia, Squamata) of South America

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Rational use of antimicrobials in dentistry during pregnancy

The use of medicines during pregnancy deserves special attention from dentists due to the potential risks to fetal development. The prescription of antimicrobial drugs during this period must be based not only on the etiology of the disease but also on the drug's effect on the embryo, which may be toxic, possibly leading to irreversible lesions. Interest in studies of the teratogenic effects of drugs increased in response to reports of the high incidence of phocomelia in patients treated with thalidomide. Although teratogenicity has long been known, pregnant women today are still exposed to this risk. The effects of drugs depend on the level of susceptibility of the fetus and on the period of exposure during pregnancy. In this context, and considering the paucity of studies on this subject in dentistry, the aim of this review was to offer an up-to-date compilation of data on the antimicrobial drugs most frequently used during pregnancy and the effects of their use.

2060 Chiron back to a minimum of brightness

The results of photometric observations of comet/steroid 2060 Chiron at the Observatorio do Pico dos Dias (Brazil - OPD) and the Observatoire de Haute-Provence (France - OHP) during 1994 and 1995 are presented. The analysis of the data shows a decrease of 2060. Chiron brightness from its peak values of 1988-1991. The absolute magnitude, H-V, varies from a maximum of 6.6 in February 1994 up to a minimum of 6.8 in June 1995. Therefore 2060 Chiron is back to a minimum of activity close to that of 1983-1985. The slope parameter G is found to be G = 0.71 +/- 0.15. It is suggested that the H-G magnitude system, generally adopted to present 2060 Chiron brightness, is not the most appropriate due to the cometary activity of this object. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier B.V. Ltd.

Estimates of direct and maternal genetic effects for weights from birth to 600 days of age in Nelore cattle

Estimates of direct and maternal variance and heritability for weights at each week (up to 280 days of age) and month of age (up to 600 days of age) in Zebu cattle are presented. More than one million records on 200 000 animals, weighed every 90 days from birth to 2 years of age, were available. Data were split according to week (data sets 1) or month (data sets 2) of age at recording, creating 54 and 21 data sets, respectively. The model of analysis included contemporary groups as fixed effects, and age of dam (linear and quadratic) and age of calf (linear) effects as covariables. Random effects fitted were additive direct and maternal genetic effects, and maternal permanent environmental effect. Direct heritability estimates decreased from 0.28 at birth, to 0.12-0.13 at about 150 days of age, stayed more or less constant at 0.14-0.16 until 270 days of age and increased with age after that, up to 0.25-0.26. Maternal heritability estimates increased from birth (0.01) to a peak of 0.14 for data sets 1 and 0.07-0.08 for data sets 2 at about 180-210 days of age, before decreasing slowly to 0.07 and 0.05, respectively, at 300 days, and then rapidly diminished after 300 days of age. Permanent environmental effects were 1.5 to four times higher than genetic maternal effects and showed a similar trend.

Estimates of covariance functions for growth from birth to 630 days of age in Nelore cattle

Weight records of Brazilian Nelore cattle, from birth to 630 d of age, recorded every 3 mo, were analyzed using random regression models. Independent variables were Legendre polynomials of age at recording. The model of analysis included contemporary groups as fixed effects and age of dam as a linear and quadratic covariable. Mean trends were modeled through a cubic regression on orthogonal polynomials of age. Up to four sets of random regression coefficients were fitted for animals' direct and maternal, additive genetic, and permanent environmental effects. Changes in measurement error variances with age were modeled through a variance function. Orders of polyno-mial fit from three to six were considered, resulting in up to 77 parameters to be estimated. Models fitting random regressions modeled the pattern of variances in the data adequately, with estimates similar to those from corresponding univariate analysis. Direct heritability estimates decreased after birth and tended to be lowest at ages at which maternal effect estimates tended to be highest. Maternal heritability estimates increased after birth to a peak around 110 to 120 d of age and decreased thereafter. Additive genetic direct correlation estimates between weights at standard ages (birth, weaning, yearling, and final weight) were moderate to high and maternal genetic and environmental correlations were consistently high. © 2001 American Society of Animal Science. All rights reserved.

Fiscal Panorama of Latin America and the Caribbean 2013: tax reform and renewal of the fiscal covenant

Includes bibliography

Fiscal Panorama of Latin America and the Caribbean 2015: Policy space and dilemmas. Executive Summary

The present document provides an up-to-date overview of public debt and fiscal space in the region. The main conclusions show that public debt levels are low in Latin America and high in the Caribbean. Overall, the region has enough fiscal space to apply countercyclical policies and boost production development and the fiscal management of non-renewable natural resources needs to be modernized. It explains that fiscal policy has a very limited impact on the distribution of disposable income and in a volatile macroeconomic environment, reforms should aim to strengthen personal income tax.

Estudo da viabilidade econômica para a utilização da semente da euterpe oleracea mart. (açaí) como recurso energético

Este trabalho tem como objetivo o estudo da viabilidade econômica para a utilização da semente da Euterpe oleracea Mart. (açaí) como recurso energético na cidade de Belém-PA. Para isso foi feito um levantamento de campo dos pontos de venda e bairros de maior produção de açaí, realizando em seguida os ensaios das propriedades termogravimétricas das sementes: Teor de umidade, teor de voláteis, teor de cinzas, teor de carbono fixo e o poder calorífico superior. O levantamento dos pontos possibilitou a criação de um banco de dados, utilizando o software Microsoft Acess, o qual fornece relatórios com a identificação do nome do proprietário, assim como número de sacas que ele processa por dia, peso da saca e o potencial energético de cada produtor. Foi utilizado ainda o Microsoft ARC VIEW, de fácil interação com o Acess e que possibilitou a criação de um mapa atualizado dos pontos de venda para a cidade de Belém-PA. De posse desses dados passou-se para o estudo das rotas de transportes, através do Sistema de Informação Geográfica (SIG) GOOGLE EARTH. Foram determinadas rotas, através do método do Centróide, ou seja, o ponto de maior concentração da variável de estudo, neste caso, a semente de açaí, para o transporte da biomassa até seu destino final que é a UFPA, onde se encontra a usina que utiliza a biomassa como combustível para gerar energia. No cálculo da viabilidade econômica, utilizaram-se os parâmetros da usina de geração de energia elétrica do Grupo de Energia, Biomassa e Meio Ambiente EBMA, juntamente com os dados do consumo de energia elétrica da Universidade Federal do Pará - UFPA no período de 06/2006 a 06/2007, fazendo-se comparação nos valores obtidos nos levantamentos e a confirmação do quanto a UFPA economizaria em termos financeiros com a utilização da energia oriunda da queima de biomassa. Concluindo-se assim que a semente de açaí como recurso energético é economicamente viável para suprir toda a energia da UFPA, uma vez que o custo da energia elétrica fornecida pela Concessionária CELPA mostrou ser superior ao custo da geração com o sistema utilizado, ocorrendo assim, uma economia no valor final do consumo de energia elétrica.

Maternal-calf relationships and their influence on calves up to 120 days

Objectives. To research parental behavior and measure the weight of Nelore and Guzerat calves up to 120 days of age, collecting data from birth up to the first lactation. Materials and methods. Seven different corporal positions were considered to obtain specific data for each of the following categories: time to stand (TP), time to intend to feed after standing (TPTM), weight at birth (PN), weight at 120 days (P120), and time in contact with the calf (TCC). Additionally, independent variables were also evaluated, organized by class: weight at birth (CPN), number of calvings (CNP), order of calving in relation with the herd (CLPR), time of calving (CHP), and finally, hindering to feed (CTAT). Results. There was a significant result in favor of the Nelore race over the Guzerat race. The statistical averages for Nelore and Guzerat were: Time to stand averaged 71 and 153 minutes; time to intend to feed after standing, 39 minutes for Nelore and of 114 minutes for Guzerat. For variable weight at 120 days, Nelore reached an average of 122 kg, and Guzerat 109 kg. For the time in contact with the calf variable there was no significant variance between races. Conclusions. Results showed the superiority of the Nelore race, considering it better adapted to local environmental conditions.

Estimates of covariance functions for growth from birth to 630 days of age in Nelore cattle

Weight records of Brazilian Nelore cattle, from birth to 630 d of age, recorded every 3 mo, were analyzed using random regression models. Independent variables were Legendre polynomials of age at recording. The model of analysis included contemporary groups as fixed effects and age of dam as a linear and quadratic covariable. Mean trends were modeled through a cubic regression on orthogonal polynomials of age. Up to four sets of random regression coefficients were fitted for animals' direct and maternal, additive genetic, and permanent environmental effects. Changes in measurement error variances with age were modeled through a variance function. Orders of polynomial fit from three to six were considered, resulting in up to 77 parameters to be estimated. Models fitting random regressions modeled the pattern of variances in the data adequately, with estimates similar to those from corresponding univariate analysis. Direct heritability estimates decreased after birth and tended to be lowest at ages at which maternal effect estimates tended to be highest. Maternal heritability estimates increased after birth to a peak around 110 to 120 d of age and decreased thereafter. Additive genetic direct correlation estimates between weights at standard ages (birth, weaning, yearling, and final weight) were moderate to high and maternal genetic and environmental correlations were consistently high.

Stability, purification, and applications of bromelain: a review

Bromelain is a cysteine protease found in pineapple tissue. Due to its anti-inflammatory and anti-cancer activities, as well as its ability to induce apoptotic cell death, bromelain has proved useful in several therapeutic areas. The market for this protease is growing, and several studies exploring various properties of this molecule have been reported. This review aims to compile this data, and summarize the main findings on bromelain in the literature to date. The physicochemical properties and stability of bromelain under different conditions are discussed. Several studies on the purification of bromelain from crude extracts using a wide range of techniques such as liquid-liquid extractions by aqueous two-phase system, ultrafiltration, precipitation, and chromatography, have been reported. Finally, the various applications of bromelain are presented. This review therefore covers the main properties of bromelain, aiming to provide an up-to-date compilation of the data reported on this enzyme.

Fine-tuning of defensive behaviors in the dorsal periaqueductal gray by atypical neurotransmitters

This paper presents an up-to-date review of the evidence indicating that atypical neurotransmitters such as nitric oxide (NO) and endocannabinoids (eCBs) play an important role in the regulation of aversive responses in the periaqueductal gray (PAG). Among the results supporting this role, several studies have shown that inhibitors of neuronal NO synthase or cannabinoid receptor type 1 (CB1) receptor agonists cause clear anxiolytic responses when injected into this region. The nitrergic and eCB systems can regulate the activity of classical neurotransmitters such as glutamate and γ-aminobutyric acid (GABA) that control PAG activity. We propose that they exert a ‘fine-tuning’ regulatory control of defensive responses in this area. This control, however, is probably complex, which may explain the usually bell-shaped dose-response curves observed with drugs that act on NO- or CB1-mediated neurotransmission. Even if the mechanisms responsible for this complex interaction are still poorly understood, they are beginning to be recognized. For example, activation of transient receptor potential vanilloid type-1 channel (TRPV1) receptors by anandamide seems to counteract the anxiolytic effects induced by CB1 receptor activation caused by this compound. Further studies, however, are needed to identify other mechanisms responsible for this fine-tuning effect.

'A Distortion in the mirror of being': verso un modello liquido di personaggio. Da Nabokov alle sperimentazioni contemporanee in ambito slavo

La tesi mira a ridefinire lo statuto del personaggio nell’ambito del self-conscious novel postmoderno, alla luce delle più recenti tendenze narratologiche, con particolare riferimento all’unnatural narratology. Per poter presentare un modello scientificamente valido si è fatto ricorso alla comparazione della produzione letteraria di due macro-aree: quella britannica e quella slava (Russia - Unione Sovietica - e Polonia). Come figura di mediazione tra queste due culture si pone senza dubbio Vladimir V. Nabokov, cardine e personalità di spicco della ricerca. Tra le analisi testuali proposte sono stati presi in considerazione i seguenti autori: Julian Barnes, Vladimir Nabokov, Daniil Charms, Konstantin Vaginov, Andrej Bitov, Saša Sokolov, Bruno Schulz e Tadeusz Kantor.