Modeling the Effect of Land Use and Climate Change Scenarios on the Water Flux of the Upper Mara River Flow, Kenya

Increasingly erratic flow in the upper reaches of the Mara River, has directed attention to land use change as the major cause of this problem. The semi-distributed hydrological model SWAT and Landsat imagery were utilized in order to 1) map existing land use practices, 2) determine the impacts of land use change on water flux; and 3) determine the impacts of climate change scenarios on the water flux of the upper Mara River. This study found that land use change scenarios resulted in more erratic discharge while climate change scenarios had a more predictable impact on the discharge and water balance components. The model results showed the flow was more sensitive to the rainfall changes than land use changes but land use changes reduce dry season flows which is a major problem in the basin. Deforestation increased the peak flows which translated to increased sediment loading in the Mara River.

A Modeling Approach to Determine the Impacts of Land Use and Climate Change Scenarios on the Water Flux of the Upper Mara River

With the flow of the Mara River becoming increasingly erratic especially in the upper reaches, attention has been directed to land use change as the major cause of this problem. The semi-distributed hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool 5 (SWAT) and Landsat imagery were utilized in the upper Mara River Basin in order to 1) map existing field scale land use practices in order to determine their impact 2) determine the impacts of land use change on water flux; and 3) determine the impacts of rainfall (0%, ±10% and ±20%) and air temperature variations (0% and +5%) based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections on the water flux of the 10 upper Mara River. This study found that the different scenarios impacted on the water balance components differently. Land use changes resulted in a slightly more erratic discharge while rainfall and air temperature changes had a more predictable impact on the discharge and water balance components. These findings demonstrate that the model results 15 show the flow was more sensitive to the rainfall changes than land use changes. It was also shown that land use changes can reduce dry season flow which is the most important problem in the basin. The model shows also deforestation in the Mau Forest increased the peak flows which can also lead to high sediment loading in the Mara River. The effect of the land use and climate change scenarios on the sediment and 20 water quality of the river needs a thorough understanding of the sediment transport processes in addition to observed sediment and water quality data for validation of modeling results.

Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrology of the Upper Mara River Basin, Kenya: Results of a Modeling Study to Support Better Resource Management

Some of the most valued natural and cultural landscapes on Earth lie in river basins that are poorly gauged and have incomplete historical climate and runoff records. The Mara River Basin of East Africa is such a basin. It hosts the internationally renowned Mara-Serengeti landscape as well as a rich mixture of indigenous cultures. The Mara River is the sole source of surface water to the landscape during the dry season and periods of drought. During recent years, the flow of the Mara River has become increasingly erratic, especially in the upper reaches, and resource managers are hampered by a lack of understanding of the relative influence of different sources of flow alteration. Uncertainties about the impacts of future climate change compound the challenges. We applied the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to investigate the response of the headwater hydrology of the Mara River to scenarios of continued land use change and projected climate change. Under the data-scarce conditions of the basin, model performance was improved using satellite-based estimated rainfall data, which may also improve the usefulness of runoff models in other parts of East Africa. The results of the analysis indicate that any further conversion of forests to agriculture and grassland in the basin headwaters is likely to reduce dry season flows and increase peak flows, leading to greater water scarcity at critical times of the year and exacerbating erosion on hillslopes. Most climate change projections for the region call for modest and seasonally variable increases in precipitation (5–10 %) accompanied by increases in temperature (2.5–3.5 °C). Simulated runoff responses to climate change scenarios were non-linear and suggest the basin is highly vulnerable under low (−3 %) and high (+25 %) extremes of projected precipitation changes, but under median projections (+7 %) there is little impact on annual water yields or mean discharge. Modest increases in precipitation are partitioned largely to increased evapotranspiration. Overall, model results support the existing efforts of Mara water resource managers to protect headwater forests and indicate that additional emphasis should be placed on improving land management practices that enhance infiltration and aquifer recharge as part of a wider program of climate change adaptation.

Bioenergy and climate change mitigation : an assessment

Date of Acceptance: 08/05/2014 Acknowledgements The authors are indebted to Julia Römer for assisting with editing several hundred references. Helmut Haberl gratefully acknowledges funding by the Austrian Academy of Sciences (Global Change Programme), the Austrian Ministry of Science and Research (BMWF, proVision programme) as well as by the EU-FP7 project VOLANTE. Carmenza Robledo-Abad received financial support from the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs.

Bioenergy and climate change mitigation : an assessment

Date of Acceptance: 08/05/2014 Acknowledgements The authors are indebted to Julia Römer for assisting with editing several hundred references. Helmut Haberl gratefully acknowledges funding by the Austrian Academy of Sciences (Global Change Programme), the Austrian Ministry of Science and Research (BMWF, proVision programme) as well as by the EU-FP7 project VOLANTE. Carmenza Robledo-Abad received financial support from the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs.

Helvi Sipilä press conference with Betty Friedan and other women members of the United Nations and NGO conference

General note: Title and date provided by Bettye Lane.

Climate change adaptation planning under uncertainty in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam: a case study on institutional vulnerability, adaptive capacity and climate change governance

Climate change is expected to have wide-ranging impacts on urban areas and creates additional challenges for sustainable development. Urban areas are inextricably linked with climate change, as they are major contributors to it, while also being particularly vulnerable to its impacts. Climate change presents a new challenge to urban areas, not only because of the expected rises in temperature and sea-level, but also the current context of failure to fully address the institutional barriers preventing action to prepare for climate change, or feedbacks between urban systems and agents. Despite the importance of climate change, there are few cities in developing countries that are attempting to address these issues systematically as part of their governance and planning processes. While there is a growing literature on the risks and vulnerabilities related to climate change, as yet there is limited research on the development of institutional responses, the dissemination of relevant knowledge and evaluation of tools for practical planning responses by decision makers at the city level. This thesis questions the dominant assumptions about the capacity of institutions and potential of adaptive planning. It argues that achieving a balance between climate change impacts and local government decision-making capacity is a vital for successful adaptation to the impacts of climate change. Urban spatial planning and wider environmental planning not only play a major role in reducing/mitigating risks but also have a key role in adapting to uncertainty in over future risk. The research focuses on a single province - the biggest city in Vietnam - Ho Chi Minh City - as the principal case study to explore this argument, by examining the linkages between urban planning systems, the structures of governance, and climate change adaptation planning. In conclusion it proposes a specific framework to offer insights into some of the more practical considerations, and the approach emphasises the importance of vertical and horizontal coordination in governance and urban planning.

Modelling the niche for a marine vertebrate: A case study incorporating behavioural plasticity, proximate threats and climate change

[EN] The integration of satellite telemetry, remotely sensed environmental data, and habitat/environmental modelling has provided for a growing understanding of spatial and temporal ecology of species of conservation concern. The Republic of Cape Verde comprises the only substantial rookery for the loggerhead turtle Caretta caretta in the eastern Atlantic. A size related dichotomy in adult foraging patterns has previously been revealed for adult sea turtles from this population with a proportion of adults foraging neritically, whilst the majority forage oceanically. Here we describe observed habitat use and employ ecological niche modelling to identify suitable foraging habitats for animals utilising these two distinct behavioural strategies. We also investigate how these predicted habitat niches may alter under the influence of climate change induced oceanic temperature rises.

Integrating functional connectivity and climate change in the design of protected area networks

Le rapide déclin actuel de la biodiversité est inquiétant et les activités humaines en sont la cause directe. De nombreuses aires protégées ont été mises en place pour contrer cette perte de biodiversité. Afin de maximiser leur efficacité, l’amélioration de la connectivité fonctionnelle entre elles est requise. Les changements climatiques perturbent actuellement les conditions environnementales de façon globale. C’est une menace pour la biodiversité qui n’a pas souvent été intégrée lors de la mise en place des aires protégées, jusqu’à récemment. Le mouvement des espèces, et donc la connectivité fonctionnelle du paysage, est impacté par les changements climatiques et des études ont montré qu’améliorer la connectivité fonctionnelle entre les aires protégées aiderait les espèces à faire face aux impacts des changements climatiques. Ma thèse présente une méthode pour concevoir des réseaux d’aires protégées tout en tenant compte des changements climatiques et de la connectivité fonctionnelle. Mon aire d’étude est la région de la Gaspésie au Québec (Canada). La population en voie de disparition de caribou de la Gaspésie-Atlantique (Rangifer tarandus caribou) a été utilisée comme espèce focale pour définir la connectivité fonctionnelle. Cette petite population subit un déclin continu dû à la prédation et la modification de son habitat, et les changements climatiques pourraient devenir une menace supplémentaire. J’ai d’abord construit un modèle individu-centré spatialement explicite pour expliquer et simuler le mouvement du caribou. J’ai utilisé les données VHF éparses de la population de caribou et une stratégie de modélisation patron-orienté pour paramétrer et sélectionner la meilleure hypothèse de mouvement. Mon meilleur modèle a reproduit la plupart des patrons de mouvement définis avec les données observées. Ce modèle fournit une meilleure compréhension des moteurs du mouvement du caribou de la Gaspésie-Atlantique, ainsi qu’une estimation spatiale de son utilisation du paysage dans la région. J’ai conclu que les données éparses étaient suffisantes pour ajuster un modèle individu-centré lorsqu’utilisé avec une modélisation patron-orienté. Ensuite, j’ai estimé l’impact des changements climatiques et de différentes actions de conservation sur le potentiel de mouvement du caribou. J’ai utilisé le modèle individu-centré pour simuler le mouvement du caribou dans des paysages hypothétiques représentant différents scénarios de changements climatiques et d’actions de conservation. Les actions de conservation représentaient la mise en place de nouvelles aires protégées en Gaspésie, comme définies par le scénario proposé par le gouvernement du Québec, ainsi que la restauration de routes secondaires à l’intérieur des aires protégées. Les impacts des changements climatiques sur la végétation, comme définis dans mes scénarios, ont réduit le potentiel de mouvement du caribou. La restauration des routes était capable d’atténuer ces effets négatifs, contrairement à la mise en place des nouvelles aires protégées. Enfin, j’ai présenté une méthode pour concevoir des réseaux d’aires protégées efficaces et j’ai proposé des nouvelles aires protégées à mettre en place en Gaspésie afin de protéger la biodiversité sur le long terme. J’ai créé de nombreux scénarios de réseaux d’aires protégées en étendant le réseau actuel pour protéger 12% du territoire. J’ai calculé la représentativité écologique et deux mesures de connectivité fonctionnelle sur le long terme pour chaque réseau. Les mesures de connectivité fonctionnelle représentaient l’accès général aux aires protégées pour le caribou de la Gaspésie-Atlantique ainsi que son potentiel de mouvement à l’intérieur. J’ai utilisé les estimations de potentiel de mouvement pour la période de temps actuelle ainsi que pour le futur sous différents scénarios de changements climatiques pour représenter la connectivité fonctionnelle sur le long terme. Le réseau d’aires protégées que j’ai proposé était le scénario qui maximisait le compromis entre les trois caractéristiques de réseau calculées. Dans cette thèse, j’ai expliqué et prédit le mouvement du caribou de la Gaspésie-Atlantique sous différentes conditions environnementales, notamment des paysages impactés par les changements climatiques. Ces résultats m’ont aidée à définir un réseau d’aires protégées à mettre en place en Gaspésie pour protéger le caribou au cours du temps. Je crois que cette thèse apporte de nouvelles connaissances sur le comportement de mouvement du caribou de la Gaspésie-Atlantique, ainsi que sur les actions de conservation qui peuvent être prises en Gaspésie afin d’améliorer la protection du caribou et de celle d’autres espèces. Je crois que la méthode présentée peut être applicable à d’autres écosystèmes aux caractéristiques et besoins similaires.

Green Infrastructure and climate change adaptation

One of the main challenges urban areas, and more particularly the compact ones, are facing is their adaptation to climate change. In recent years, is had been recognized that a more ecosystem approach to spatial planning can play a critical role in meeting these challenges. Green Infrastructure (GI) and its integration in spatial planning emerges as one of the most appropriate and effective ways to improve microclimate and tackle the impacts of climate change and mainly the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect. This paper initially attempts to clarify the term GI and portrays its benefits and its role as an important spatial planning tool to fulfill different environmental, social and economic needs of urban areas. Then, the paper proceeds to an empirical evaluation of the role of GI in reducing the vulnerability to UHI effect in a compact urban area of the city of Thessaloniki. For this reason, a simple methodology is developed with a twofold purpose: to recognize the risks posed by climate change and especially UHI and to assess the potential offered by available in a compact area GI assets as well as by their redesign in order to maximize their contribution to climate change adaptation.

INCORPORATING REAL SCIENCE INTO THE SECONDARY CLASSROOM: AEROSOLS AND CLIMATE CHANGE

Climate science and climate change are included in the Next Generation Science Standards, curriculum standards that were released in 2013. How to incorporate these topics, especially climate change, has been a difficult task for teachers. A team of scientists are studying aerosols in the free troposphere; what their properties are, how they change while in the atmosphere and where they came from. Lessons were created based on this real, ongoing scientific research being conducted in the Azores. During these activities, students are exposed to what scientists actually do in the form of videos and participate in similar tasks such as conducting experiments, collecting data, and analyzing data. At the conclusion of the lessons, students will form conclusions based on the evidence they have at the time.

Climate change and carbon markets: implications for developing countries

While the Kyoto Protocol provided a framework for reducing the greenhouse gas emissions of industrialized nations, current climate change negotiations envisage future commitments for major co2 emitters among developing countries. This document uses an updated version of the gtap-e general equilibrium model to analyse the economic implications of reducing carbon emissions under different carbon trading scenarios. The participation of developing countries such as China and India would reduce emissions trading costs. Impacts in Latin America would depend on whether a country is an energy exporter or importer and whether the United States reduces emissions. Welfare impacts might be negative depending on the carbon trading scheme adopted and a country’s trading partners.