Neural mechanisms of belief inference during cooperative games.

Humans have the arguably unique ability to understand the mental representations of others. For success in both competitive and cooperative interactions, however, this ability must be extended to include representations of others' belief about our intentions, their model about our belief about their intentions, and so on. We developed a "stag hunt" game in which human subjects interacted with a computerized agent using different degrees of sophistication (recursive inferences) and applied an ecologically valid computational model of dynamic belief inference. We show that rostral medial prefrontal (paracingulate) cortex, a brain region consistently identified in psychological tasks requiring mentalizing, has a specific role in encoding the uncertainty of inference about the other's strategy. In contrast, dorsolateral prefrontal cortex encodes the depth of recursion of the strategy being used, an index of executive sophistication. These findings reveal putative computational representations within prefrontal cortex regions, supporting the maintenance of cooperation in complex social decision making.

The beta decay of N-21

The beta-delayed neutron and gamma energy spectra taken from the decay of neutron-rich nucleus N-21 were measured by using the beta - gamma and beta - n coincidence detection method. Thirteen new neutron groups ranging from 0.28MeV to 4.98 MeV and with a total branching ratio of 88.7 +/- 4.2% were observed and presented. One gamma transition with an energy of 1222 keV emitted from the excited state of O-21, and four gamma transitions with energies of 1674, 2397, 2780, and 3175 keV emitted from the excited states of O-20 were identified in the 3 decay chain of N-21. The beta decay half-life for N-21 is determined to be 82.9 +/- 1.9 ms. The uncertainty of half-life is much smaller than the previous result.

Fast simulation of the forward tracking detector of HPLUS

The necessity of installing a forward tracking detector stack is discussed for the Hadron Physics LanzhoU Spectrometer(HPLUS). A local tracker is developed to solve the multi-track finding problem. The track candidates are searched iteratively via Hough Transform. The fake tracks are removed by a least square fitting process. With this tracker we have studied the feasibility of pp -> pp + phi(-> K+K-), a typical physical channel proposed on HPLUS. The single track momentum resolution due to the uncertainty of the positioning in FTD is 1.3%. The multiple scattering effect contributes about 20% to the momentum resolution in the FTD coverage. The width and the signal-to-background ratio of the reconstructed phi are 1.51 MeV and 4.36, respectively, taking into account the direct Kaon channel pp -> pp + K+K- as background. The geometry coverage of FTD for phi events is about 85.4%. Based on the current fast simulation and estimation, the geometrical configuration of FTD meets the physical requirement of HPLUS under the current luminosity and multiplicity conditions. The tracker is applicable in the full simulation coming next and is extendable to other tracking component of HPLUS.

Uncertainties in estimates of cropland area in China: a comparison between an AVHRR-derived dataset and a Landsat TM-derived dataset

The large uncertainties in estimates of cropland area in China may have significant implications for major cross-cutting themes of global environmental change-food production and trade, water resources, and the carbon and nitrogen cycles. Many earlier studies have indicated significant under-reporting of cropland area in China from official agricultural census statistics datasets. Space-borne remote sensing analyses provide an alternative and independent approach for estimating cropland area in China. In this study, we report estimates of cropland area from the National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD-96) at the 1:100,000 scale, which was generated by a multi-year National Land Cover Project in China through visual interpretation and digitization of Landsat TM images acquired mostly in 1995 and 1996. We compared the NLCD-96 dataset to another land cover dataset at I-km spatial resolution (the IGBP DIScover dataset version 2.0), which was generated from monthly Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR)-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from April, 1992 to March, 1993. The data comparison highlighted the limitation and uncertainty of cropland area estimates from the DIScover dataset. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Recent 2000-year geological records of mud in the inner shelf of the East China Sea and their climatic implications

AXIS(14)C dating and grain-size analysis for Core DD2, located at the north of the Yangtze River-derived mud off the Zhejiang-Fujian coasts in the inner shelf of the East China Sea, provide us a high-resolution grain-size distribution curve varying with depth and time. Data in the upper mud layer of Core DD2 indicate that there are at least 9 abrupt grain-size increasing in recent 2000 years, with each corresponding very well with the low-temperature events in Chinese history, which might result from the periodical strengthening of the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM), including the first-revealed maximum temperature lowering event at around 990 a BP. At the same time, the finer grain size section in Core DD2 agrees well with the Sui-Tang Warming Period (600-1000 a AD) defined previously by Zhu Kezhen, during which the climate had a warm, cold and warm fluctuation, with a dominated cooling period of 750-850 a AD. The Little Ice Age (LIA) can also be identified in the core. It starts around 1450 a AD and was followed by a subsequent cooling events at 1510, 1670 and 1840 a AD. Timing of these cold events revealed here still needs to be further verified owing to some current uncertainty of dating we used in this study.

A Local Circuit Model of Learned Straitial and Dopamine Cell Responses under Probabilistic Schedules of Reward

Before choosing, it helps to know both the expected value signaled by a predictive cue and the associated uncertainty that the reward will be forthcoming. Recently, Fiorillo et al. (2003) found the dopamine (DA) neurons of the SNc exhibit sustained responses related to the uncertainty that a cure will be followed by reward, in addition to phasic responses related to reward prediction errors (RPEs). This suggests that cue-dependent anticipations of the timing, magnitude, and uncertainty of rewards are learned and reflected in components of the DA signals broadcast by SNc neurons. What is the minimal local circuit model that can explain such multifaceted reward-related learning? A new computational model shows how learned uncertainty responses emerge robustly on single trial along with phasic RPE responses, such that both types of DA responses exhibit the empirically observed dependence on conditional probability, expected value of reward, and time since onset of the reward-predicting cue. The model includes three major pathways for computing: immediate expected values of cures, timed predictions of reward magnitudes (and RPEs), and the uncertainty associated with these predictions. The first two model pathways refine those previously modeled by Brown et al. (1999). A third, newly modeled, pathway is formed by medium spiny projection neurons (MSPNs) of the matrix compartment of the striatum, whose axons co-release GABA and a neuropeptide, substance P, both at synapses with GABAergic neurons in the SNr and with the dendrites (in SNr) of DA neurons whose somas are in ventral SNc. Co-release enables efficient computation of sustained DA uncertainty responses that are a non-monotonic function of the conditonal probability that a reward will follow the cue. The new model's incorporation of a striatal microcircuit allowed it to reveals that variability in striatal cholinergic transmission can explain observed difference, between monkeys, in the amplitutude of the non-monotonic uncertainty function. Involvement of matriceal MSPNs and striatal cholinergic transmission implpies a relation between uncertainty in the cue-reward contigency and action-selection functions of the basal ganglia. The model synthesizes anatomical, electrophysiological and behavioral data regarding the midbrain DA system in a novel way, by relating the ability to compute uncertainty, in parallel with other aspects of reward contingencies, to the unique distribution of SP inputs in ventral SN.

Application of semi-automated strain analysis techniques and anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility in fold and thrust belts

Quantitative analysis of penetrative deformation in sedimentary rocks of fold and thrust belts has largely been carried out using clast based strain analysis techniques. These methods analyse the geometric deviations from an original state that populations of clasts, or strain markers, have undergone. The characterisation of these geometric changes, or strain, in the early stages of rock deformation is not entirely straight forward. This is in part due to the paucity of information on the original state of the strain markers, but also the uncertainty of the relative rheological properties of the strain markers and their matrix during deformation, as well as the interaction of two competing fabrics, such as bedding and cleavage. Furthermore one of the single largest setbacks for accurate strain analysis has been associated with the methods themselves, they are traditionally time consuming, labour intensive and results can vary between users. A suite of semi-automated techniques have been tested and found to work very well, but in low strain environments the problems discussed above persist. Additionally these techniques have been compared to Anisotropy of Magnetic Susceptibility (AMS) analyses, which is a particularly sensitive tool for the characterisation of low strain in sedimentary lithologies.

Local likelihood smoothing of sample extremes

Trends in sample extremes are of interest in many contexts, an example being environmental statistics. Parametric models are often used to model trends in such data, but they may not be suitable for exploratory data analysis. This paper outlines a semiparametric approach to smoothing example extremes, based on local polynomial fitting of the generalized extreme value distribution and related models. The uncertainty of fits is assessed by using resampling methods. The methods are applied to data on extreme temperatures and on record times for the womens 3000m race.

Evaluation of the new ESR network software for the retrieval of direct sun products from cimel ce318 and prede pom01 sun-sky radiometers.

The European Skynet Radiometers network (EuroSkyRad or ESR) has been recently established as a research network of European PREDE sun-sky radiometers. Moreover, ESR is federated with SKYNET, an international network of PREDE sun-sky radiometers mostly present in East Asia. In contrast to SKYNET, the European network also integrates users of the CIMEL CE318 sky–sun photometer. Keeping instrumental duality in mind, a set of open source algorithms has been developed consisting of two modules for (1) the retrieval of direct sun products (aerosol optical depth, wavelength exponent and water vapor) from the sun extinction measurements; and (2) the inversion of the sky radiance to derive other aerosol optical properties such as size distribution, single scattering albedo or refractive index. In this study we evaluate the ESR direct sun products in comparison with the AERosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) products. Specifically, we have applied the ESR algorithm to a CIMEL CE318 and PREDE POM simultaneously for a 4-yr database measured at the Burjassot site (Valencia, Spain), and compared the resultant products with the AERONET direct sun measurements obtained with the same CIMEL CE318 sky–sun photometer. The comparison shows that aerosol optical depth differences are mostly within the nominal uncertainty of 0.003 for a standard calibration instrument, and fall within the nominal AERONET uncertainty of 0.01–0.02 for a field instrument in the spectral range 340 to 1020 nm. In the cases of the Ångström exponent and the columnar water vapor, the differences are lower than 0.02 and 0.15 cm, respectively. Therefore, we present an open source code program that can be used with both CIMEL and PREDE sky radiometers and whose results are equivalent to AERONET and SKYNET retrievals.

Impacts of Climate Change on European Marine Ecosystems: Observations, Expectations and Indicators

The Northern Hemisphere has been warmer since 1980 than at any other time during the last 2000 years. The observed increase in temperature has been generally higher in northern than in southern European seas, and higher in enclosed than in open seas. Although European marine ecosystems are influenced by many other factors, such as nutrient enrichment and overfishing, every region has shown at least some changes that were most likely attributable to recent climate change. It is expected that within open systems there will generally be (further) northward movement of species, leading to a switch from polar to more temperate species in the northern seas such as the Arctic, Barents Sea and the Nordic Seas, and subtropical species moving northward to temperate regions such as the Iberian upwelling margin. For seas that are highly influenced by river runoff, such as the Baltic Sea, an increase in freshwater due to enhanced rainfall will lead to a shift from marine to more brackish and even freshwater species. If semi-enclosed systems such as the Mediterranean and the Black Sea lose their endemic species, the associated niches will probably be filled by species originating from adjacent waters and, possibly, with species transported from one region to another via ballast water and the Suez Canal. A better understanding of potential climate change impacts (scenarios) at both regional and local levels, the development of improved methods to quantify the uncertainty of climate change projections, the construction of usable climate change indicators, and an improvement of the interface between science and policy formulation in terms of risk assessment will be essential to formulate and inform better adaptive strategies to address the inevitable consequences of climate change.

Improving the performance of a Mediterranean demersal fishery towards societal objectives beyond MSY

Mediterranean demersal fisheries are highly multispecific and many of their target stocks are overexploited. In addition, rocketing fuel costs and low market prices of traditionally high-value species are challenging the viability of fisheries. Here, based on the numeric results of a simulation model, we conclude that this situation can be remedied by reducing both fishing mortality and fishing costs. According to our model results, fishing effort reductions of 48–71% would improve the health of fish stocks while increasing the economic profits of Mallorca islands bottom trawl fishery to as much as 1.9 M€ (146% higher than current profits). If all fish stocks were exploited at their MSY (or below) level, the reduction in fishing effort would have to be of 71% from current values. If equilibrium profits from the fishery were to be maximized (MEY), fishing effort would need to be reduced by 48%. These results must be taken with caution due the many sources of uncertainty of our analysis. The modeling tools used to estimate these values are conditional to the adequate treatment of two sources of uncertainty that are particularly problematic in Mediterranean fisheries: insufficiently known recruitment variability and lack of periodic evaluations of the state of many species. Our results show that fishing effort reductions would produce economic yield gains after a period of transition. Further studies on the benefits of changing the size-selection pattern of fisheries, on better estimation of stock–recruitment relationships and on better quantifications of the contribution of secondary species to these fisheries, are expected to improve the scientific recommendations for Mediterranean demersal fisheries toward sustainability principles.

Improving the performance of a Mediterranean demersal fishery toward economic objectives beyond MSY

Mediterranean demersal fisheries are highly multispecific and many of their target stocks are overexploited. In addition, rocketing fuel costs and low market prices of traditionally high-value species are challenging the viability of fisheries. Here, based on the numeric results of a simulation model, we conclude that this situation can be remedied by reducing both fishing mortality and fishing costs. According to our model results, fishing effort reductions of 48-71% would improve the health of fish stocks while increasing the economic profits of Mallorca islands bottom trawl fishery to as much as 1.9 M(sic) (146% higher than current profits). If all fish stocks were exploited at their MSY (or below) level, the reduction in fishing effort would have to be of 71% from current values. If equilibrium profits from the fishery were to be maximized (MEY), fishing effort would need to be reduced by 48%. These results must be taken with caution due the many sources of uncertainty of our analysis. The modeling tools used to estimate these values are conditional to the adequate treatment of two sources of uncertainty that are particularly problematic in Mediterranean fisheries: insufficiently known recruitment variability and lack of periodic evaluations of the state of many species. Our results show that fishing effort reductions would produce economic yield gains after a period of transition. Further studies on the benefits of changing the size-selection pattern of fisheries, on better estimation of stock recruitment relationships and on better quantifications of the contribution of secondary species to these fisheries, are expected to improve the scientific recommendations for Mediterranean demersal fisheries toward sustainability principles.

Feasibility of online collaborative voltage stability control of power systems

This paper presents the results of feasibility study of a novel concept of power system on-line collaborative voltage stability control. The proposal of the on-line collaboration between power system controllers is to enhance their overall performance and efficiency to cope with the increasing operational uncertainty of modern power systems. In the paper, the framework of proposed on-line collaborative voltage stability control is firstly presented, which is based on the deployment of multi-agent systems and real-time communication for on-line collaborative control. Then two of the most important issues in implementing the proposed on-line collaborative voltage stability control are addressed: (1) Error-tolerant communication protocol for fast information exchange among multiple intelligent agents; (2) Deployment of multi-agent systems by using graph theory to implement power system post-emergency control. In the paper, the proposed on-line collaborative voltage stability control is tested in the example 10-machine 39-node New England power system. Results of feasibility study from simulation are given considering the low-probability power system cascading faults.

Prediction of ionic liquid properties. I. Volumetric properties as a function of temperature at 0.1 MPa

The prediction of molar volumes and densities of several ionic liquids has been achieved using a group contribution model as a function of temperature between (273 and 423) K at atmospheric pressure. It was observed that the calculation of molar volumes or densities could be performed using the "ideal" behavior of the molar volumes of mixtures of ionic liquids. This model is based on the observations of Canongia Lopes et al. (J. Phys. Chem. B 2005, 109, 3519-3525) which showed that this ideal behavior is independent of the temperature and allows the molar volume of a given ionic liquid to be calculated by the sum of the effective molar volume of the component ions. Using this assumption, the effective molar volumes of ions constituting more than 220 different ionic liquids were calculated as a function of the temperature at 0.1 MPa using more than 2150 data points. These calculated results were used to build up a group contribution model for the calculation of ionic liquid molar volumes and densities with an estimated repeatability and uncertainty of 0.36% and 0.48%, respectively. The impact of impurities (water and halide content) in ionic liquids as well as the method of determination were also analyzed and quantified to estimate the overall uncertainty. © 2008 American Chemical Society.

Living through the death of a child: A qualitative study of bereaved parents’ experiences

Design: Cross-sectional qualitative study.

Data sources: Interviews with purposeful sample of 25 recently bereaved parents.

Methods: Semi-structured in-depth interviews.

Results: Four analytically distinct processes were identified in the responses of parents to the death of a child. These are referred to as ‘piloting’, ‘providing’, ‘protecting’ and ‘preserving’. Regardless of individual circumstances, these processes were integral to all parents’ coping, enabling an active ‘doing’ for their child and family throughout the trajectory of their child's illness and into bereavement.

Conclusions: Facilitating the capacity of parents to ‘do’ is central to coping with the stress and uncertainty of living through the death of a child. The provision of informational, instrumental and emotional support by health care professionals in the context of ‘doing’ is core to quality palliative care.

Keywords: Bereaved parents; Cancer; Dying child; End-of-life; Palliative care; Non-malignant