Analysis of genetic parentage in the tawny owl (Strix aluco) reveals extra-pair paternity is low

We have investigated genetic parentage in a Swiss population of tawny owls (Strix aluco). To this end, we performed genetic analysis for six polymorphic loci of 49 avian microsatellite loci tested for cross-species amplification. We found one extra-pair young out of 137 (0.7%) nestlings in 37 families (2.7%). There was no intra-specific brood parasitism. Our results are in accordance with previous findings for other raptors and owls that genetic monogamy is the rule. Female tawny owls cannot raise offspring without a substantial contribution by their mates. Hence one favoured hypothesis is that high paternal investment in reproduction selects for behaviour that prevents cuckoldry.

Parentage analysis with genetic markers in natural populations. I. The expected proportion of offspring with unambiguous paternity.

Recent studies indicate that polymorphic genetic markers are potentially helpful in resolving genealogical relationships among individuals in a natural population. Genetic data provide opportunities for paternity exclusion when genotypic incompatibilities are observed among individuals, and the present investigation examines the resolving power of genetic markers in unambiguous positive determination of paternity. Under the assumption that the mother for each offspring in a population is unambiguously known, an analytical expression for the fraction of males excluded from paternity is derived for the case where males and females may be derived from two different gene pools. This theoretical formulation can also be used to predict the fraction of births for each of which all but one male can be excluded from paternity. We show that even when the average probability of exclusion approaches unity, a substantial fraction of births yield equivocal mother-father-offspring determinations. The number of loci needed to increase the frequency of unambiguous determinations to a high level is beyond the scope of current electrophoretic studies in most species. Applications of this theory to electrophoretic data on Chamaelirium luteum (L.) shows that in 2255 offspring derived from 273 males and 70 females, only 57 triplets could be unequivocally determined with eight polymorphic protein loci, even though the average combined exclusionary power of these loci was 73%. The distribution of potentially compatible male parents, based on multilocus genotypes, was reasonably well predicted from the allele frequency data available for these loci. We demonstrate that genetic paternity analysis in natural populations cannot be reliably based on exclusionary principles alone. In order to measure the reproductive contributions of individuals in natural populations, more elaborate likelihood principles must be deployed.

An Ensemble Kalman Filter multi-tracer assimilation: Determining uncertain ocean model parameters for improved climate-carbon cycle projections

An Ensemble Kalman Filter is applied to assimilate observed tracer fields in various combinations in the Bern3D ocean model. Each tracer combination yields a set of optimal transport parameter values that are used in projections with prescribed CO2 stabilization pathways. The assimilation of temperature and salinity fields yields a too vigorous ventilation of the thermocline and the deep ocean, whereas the inclusion of CFC-11 and radiocarbon improves the representation of physical and biogeochemical tracers and of ventilation time scales. Projected peak uptake rates and cumulative uptake of CO2 by the ocean are around 20% lower for the parameters determined with CFC-11 and radiocarbon as additional target compared to those with salinity and temperature only. Higher surface temperature changes are simulated in the Greenland–Norwegian–Iceland Sea and in the Southern Ocean when CFC-11 is included in the Ensemble Kalman model tuning. These findings highlights the importance of ocean transport calibration for the design of near-term and long-term CO2 emission mitigation strategies and for climate projections.

Transdisciplinarity – An Option for Applied Landscape Ecology in Complex and Uncertain Contexts.

Applied landscape ecology is considered to have a limited impact on decision-making. To improve the effectiveness of research, above all, closer cooperation between researchers and nonacademic actors is needed. We argue that a suitable research approach in this context is transdisciplinarity (td). We refer to td as interdisciplinary research that takes place in a complex environment-society context with a strong involvement of non-academic actors during the entire research process. A brief synthesis of a case study focusing on ‘Off-site Effects of Soil Erosion on the Swiss Plateau’ illustrates a promising application of a td approach.

Uncertain Belongings. Absent mourning, burial, and post-mortem repatriations at the external border of the EU in Spain

Since the mid-1980s, migrants from North African and sub-Saharan countries have irregularly crossed the Strait of Gibraltar, in the hope of a better future for themselves and their families. Travelling in small, poorly equipped boats without experienced captains has cost the lives of myriad border crossers. Many of these bodies will never be recovered and the bereaved will never know whether their relatives and friends are alive or not. The bereaved are thus condemned to a state of not knowing and uncertainty. Exploring the junction of death and belonging, I firstly open a discussion about the enigmatic relation between a dead body and a dead person and argue for the importance of the physical presence of the body for mourning. Secondly, I show how the anonymity of dead border crossers and their uncertain belongings are generated, concealed, or rewritten. Following the story of an undertaker, I thirdly examine post-mortem border crossings. Depicting the power relations within identification processes, I outline the ambiguity of the term belonging by emphasising the constitutive significance of personal belongings such as clothes to restore a person’s identity. Reflecting on the ethical relationships which different actors (including the researcher) undertake with the deceased, I aim at gaining a better understanding of the multiple belonging of dead border crossers found on Spanish shores.

Analyzing left-truncated right-censored data with uncertain onset time with parametric models

Prevalent sampling is an efficient and focused approach to the study of the natural history of disease. Right-censored time-to-event data observed from prospective prevalent cohort studies are often subject to left-truncated sampling. Left-truncated samples are not randomly selected from the population of interest and have a selection bias. Extensive studies have focused on estimating the unbiased distribution given left-truncated samples. However, in many applications, the exact date of disease onset was not observed. For example, in an HIV infection study, the exact HIV infection time is not observable. However, it is known that the HIV infection date occurred between two observable dates. Meeting these challenges motivated our study. We propose parametric models to estimate the unbiased distribution of left-truncated, right-censored time-to-event data with uncertain onset times. We first consider data from a length-biased sampling, a specific case in left-truncated samplings. Then we extend the proposed method to general left-truncated sampling. With a parametric model, we construct the full likelihood, given a biased sample with unobservable onset of disease. The parameters are estimated through the maximization of the constructed likelihood by adjusting the selection bias and unobservable exact onset. Simulations are conducted to evaluate the finite sample performance of the proposed methods. We apply the proposed method to an HIV infection study, estimating the unbiased survival function and covariance coefficients. ^

Robust rolling stock under uncertain demand in rapid transit networks

This paper focuses on the railway rolling stock circulation problem in rapid transit networks where the known demand and train schedule must be met by a given fleet. In rapid transit networks the frequencies are high and distances are relatively short. Although the distances are not very large, service times are high due to the large number of intermediate stops required to allow proper passenger flow. The previous circumstances and the reduced capacity of the depot stations and that the rolling stock is shared between the different lines, force the introduction of empty trains and a careful control on shunting operation. In practice the future demand is generally unknown and the decisions must be based on uncertain forecast. We have developed a stochastic rolling stock formulation of the problem. The computational experiments were developed using a commercial line of the Madrid suburban rail network operated by RENFE (The main Spanish operator of suburban trains of passengers). Comparing the results obtained by deterministic scenarios and stochastic approach some useful conclusions may be obtained.

From plant surface to plant metabolism: the uncertain fate of foliar-applied nutrients

The application of agrochemical sprays to the aerial parts of crop plants is an important agricultural practice world-wide. While variable effectiveness is often seen in response to foliar treatments, there is abundant evidence showing the beneficial effect of foliar fertilizers in terms of improving the metabolism, quality, and yields of crops. This mini-review is focused on the major bottlenecks associated with the uptake and translocation of foliar-applied nutrient solutions. A better understanding of the complex scenario surrounding the ultimate delivery of foliar-applied nutrients to sink cells and organs is essential for improving the effectiveness and performance of foliar fertilizers.

Multiobjective structural damage identification in uncertain environments

Evolutionary algorithms are suitable to solve damage identification problems in a multiobjective context. However, the performance of these methods can deteriorate quickly with increasing noise intensities originating numerous uncertainties. In this paper, a statistic structural damage detection method formulated in a multiobjective context is proposed. The statistic analysis is implemented to take into account the uncertainties existing in the structural model and measured structural modal parameters. The presented method is verified by a number of simulated damage scenarios. The effects of noise and damage levels on damage detection are investigated.

Multiple paternity in two natural populations (orchard and vineyard) of Drosophila.

Male mating success is an important fitness component in Drosophila. The seminal fluid conveyed with the sperm inhibits the proclivity of the female to remate and reduces her fitness. Nevertheless, females may remate before they have exhausted the sperm from the first male and consequently use sperm from both males. We have studied concurrent multiple paternity (CMP) in two Drosophila melanogaster populations, from an apple orchard and a vineyard just after harvest. CMP is high in both populations, somewhat greater than 50%; but it is not significantly higher in the vineyard, where the population density is much greater than in the orchard. Population density had been thought to be an important determinant of CMP incidence. We have used four gene loci coding for enzymes as independent markers for detecting CMP.