GIS assessing traditional and modern agricultural land use/land cover change. A case study 1959-2005: Rekijoki, Somero, SW-Finland

Finland’s rural landscape has gone through remarkable changes from the 1950’s, due to agricultural developments. Changed farming practices have influenced especially traditional landscape management, and modifications in the arable land structure and grasslands transitions are notable. The review of the previous studies reveal the importance of the rural landscape composition and structure to species and landscape diversity, whereas including the relevance in presence of the open ditches, size of the field and meadow patches, topology of the natural and agricultural landscape. This land-change study includes applying remote sensed data from two time series and empirical geospatial analysis in Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The aims of this retrospective research is to detect agricultural landscape use and land cover change (LULCC) dynamics and discuss the consequences of agricultural intensification to landscape structure covering from the aspects of landscape ecology. Measurements of LULC are derived directly from pre-processed aerial images by a variety of analytical procedures, including statistical methods and image interpretation. The methodological challenges are confronted in the process of landscape classification and combining change detection approaches with landscape indices. Particular importance is paid on detecting agricultural landscape features at a small scale, demanding comprehensive understanding of such agroecosystems. Topological properties of the classified arable land and valley are determined in order to provide insight and emphasize the aspect the field edges in the agricultural landscape as important habitat. Change detection dynamics are presented with change matrix and additional calculations of gain, loss, swap, net change, change rate and tendencies are made. Transition’s possibility is computed following Markov’s probability model and presented with matrix, as well. Thesis’s spatial aspect is revealed with illustrative maps providing knowledge of location of the classified landscape categories and location of the dynamics of the changes occurred. It was assured that in Rekijoki valley’s landscape, remarkable changes in landscape has occurred. Landscape diversity has been strongly influenced by modern agricultural landscape change, as NP of open ditches has decreased and the MPS of the arable plot has decreased. Overall change in the diversity of the landscape is determined with the decrease of SHDI. Valley landscape considered as traditional land use area has experienced major transitional changes, as meadows class has lost almost one third of the area due to afforestation. Also, remarkable transitions have occurred from forest to meadow and arable land to built area. Boundaries measurement between modern and traditional landscape has indicated noticeable proportional increase in arable land-forest edge type and decrease in arable land-meadow edge type. Probability calculations predict higher future changes for traditional landscape, but also for arable land turning into built area.

Growth and development of honey weed based on days or thermal units

This work was carried out with the objective of evaluating the growth and development of honey weed (Leonurus sibiricus) based on days or thermal units (growing degree days). Thus, two independent trials were developed to quantify the phenological development and total dry mass accumulation in increasing or decreasing photoperiod conditions. Considering only one growing season, honey weed phenological development was perfectly fit to day scale or growing degree days, but with no equivalence between seasons, with the plants developing faster at increasing photoperiods, and flowering 100 days after seeding. Even day-time scale or thermal units were not able to estimate general honey weed phenology during the different seasons of the year. In any growing condition, honey weed plants were able to accumulate a total dry mass of over 50 g per plant. Dry mass accumulation was adequately fit to the growing degree days, with highlights to a base temperature of 10 ºC. Therefore, a higher environmental influence on species phenology and a lower environmental influence on growth (dry mass) were observed, showing thereby that other variables, such as the photoperiod, may potentially complement the mathematical models.

Growth and development of sourgrass based on days or thermal units

This work was carried out with the objective of evaluating growth and development of sourgrass (Digitaris insularis) based on days or thermal units (growing degree days - GDD). Two independent trials were developed aiming to quantify the species' phenological development and total dry matter accumulation in increasing or decreasing photoperiod conditions. Plants were grown in 4 L plastic pots, filled with commercial substrate, adequately fertilized. In each trial, nine growth evaluations were carried out, with three replicates. Phenological development of sourgrass was correctly fit to time scale in days or GDD, through linear equation of first degree. Sourgrass has slow initial growth, followed by exponential dry matter accumulation, in increasing photoperiod condition. Maximum total dry matter was 75 and 6 g per plant for increasing and decreasing photoperiod conditions, respectively. Thus, phenological development of sourgrass may be predicted by mathematical models based on days or GDD; however, it should be noted that other environmental variables interfere on the species' growth (mass accumulation), especially photoperiod.

Very High Energy Gamma-Rays emitting BL LAC's Population Study

Context: BL Lacs are the most numerous extragalactic objects which are detected in Very High Energy (VHE) gamma-rays band. They are a subclass of blazars. Large flux variability amplitude, sometimes happens in very short time scale, is a common characteristic of them. Significant optical polarization is another main characteristics of BL Lacs. BL Lacs' spectra have a continuous and featureless Spectral Energy Distribution (SED) which have two peaks. Among 1442 BL Lacs in the Roma-BZB catalogue, only 51 are detected in VHE gamma-rays band. BL Lacs are most numerous (more than 50% of 514 objects) objects among the sources that are detected above 10 GeV by FERMI-LAT. Therefore, many BL Lacs are expected to be discovered in VHE gamma-rays band. However, due to the limitation on current and near future technology of Imaging Air Cherenkov Telescope, astronomers are forced to predict whether an object emits VHE gamma-rays or not. Some VHE gamma-ray prediction methods are already introduced but still are not confirmed. Cross band correlations are the building blocks of introducing VHE gamma-rays prediction method. Aims: We will attempt to investigate cross band correlations between flux energy density, luminosity and spectral index of the sample. Also, we will check whether recently discovered MAGIC J2001+435 is a typical BL Lac. Methods: We select a sample of 42 TeV BL Lacs and collect 20 of their properties within five energy bands from literature and Tuorla blazar monitoring program database. All of the data are synchronized to be comparable to each other. Finally, we choose 55 pair of datasets for cross band correlations finding and investigating whether there is any correlation between each pair. For MAGIC J2001+435 we analyze the publicly available SWIFT-XRT data, and use the still unpublished VHE gamma-rays data from MAGIC collaboration. The results are compared to the other sources of the sample. Results: Low state luminosity of multiple detected VHE gamma-rays is strongly correlated luminosities in all other bands. However, the high state does not show such strong correlations. VHE gamma-rays single detected sources have similar behaviour to the low state of multiple detected ones. Finally, MAGIC J2001+435 is a typical TeV BL Lac. However, for some of the properties this source is located at the edge of the whole sample (e.g. in terms of X-rays flux). Keywords: BL Lac(s), Population study, Correlations finding, Multi wavelengths analysis, VHE gamma-rays, gamma-rays, X-rays, Optical, Radio

Théorèmes d'existence pour des systèmes d'équations différentielles et d'équations aux échelles de temps.

Nous présentons dans cette thèse des théorèmes d’existence pour des systèmes d’équations différentielles non-linéaires d’ordre trois, pour des systèmes d’équa- tions et d’inclusions aux échelles de temps non-linéaires d’ordre un et pour des systèmes d’équations aux échelles de temps non-linéaires d’ordre deux sous cer- taines conditions aux limites. Dans le chapitre trois, nous introduirons une notion de tube-solution pour obtenir des théorèmes d’existence pour des systèmes d’équations différentielles du troisième ordre. Cette nouvelle notion généralise aux systèmes les notions de sous- et sur-solutions pour le problème aux limites de l’équation différentielle du troisième ordre étudiée dans [34]. Dans la dernière section de ce chapitre, nous traitons les systèmes d’ordre trois lorsque f est soumise à une condition de crois- sance de type Wintner-Nagumo. Pour admettre l’existence de solutions d’un tel système, nous aurons recours à la théorie des inclusions différentielles. Ce résultat d’existence généralise de diverses façons un théorème de Grossinho et Minhós [34]. Le chapitre suivant porte sur l’existence de solutions pour deux types de sys- tèmes d’équations aux échelles de temps du premier ordre. Les résultats d’exis- tence pour ces deux problèmes ont été obtenus grâce à des notions de tube-solution adaptées à ces systèmes. Le premier théorème généralise entre autre aux systèmes et à une échelle de temps quelconque, un résultat obtenu pour des équations aux différences finies par Mawhin et Bereanu [9]. Ce résultat permet également d’obte- nir l’existence de solutions pour de nouveaux systèmes dont on ne pouvait obtenir l’existence en utilisant le résultat de Dai et Tisdell [17]. Le deuxième théorème de ce chapitre généralise quant à lui, sous certaines conditions, des résultats de [60]. Le chapitre cinq aborde un nouveau théorème d’existence pour un système d’in- clusions aux échelles de temps du premier ordre. Selon nos recherches, aucun résultat avant celui-ci ne traitait de l’existence de solutions pour des systèmes d’inclusions de ce type. Ainsi, ce chapitre ouvre de nouvelles possibilités dans le domaine des inclusions aux échelles de temps. Notre résultat a été obtenu encore une fois à l’aide d’une hypothèse de tube-solution adaptée au problème. Au chapitre six, nous traitons l’existence de solutions pour des systèmes d’équations aux échelles de temps d’ordre deux. Le premier théorème d’existence que nous obtenons généralise les résultats de [36] étant donné que l’hypothèse que ces auteurs utilisent pour faire la majoration a priori est un cas particulier de notre hypothèse de tube-solution pour ce type de systèmes. Notons également que notre définition de tube-solution généralise aux systèmes les notions de sous- et sur-solutions introduites pour les équations d’ordre deux par [4] et [55]. Ainsi, nous généralisons également des résultats obtenus pour des équations aux échelles de temps d’ordre deux. Finalement, nous proposons un nouveau résultat d’exis- tence pour un système dont le membre droit des équations dépend de la ∆-dérivée de la fonction.

Développement et validation d'un instrument non-invasifde caractérisation du comportement musculaire respiratoire

Réalisé en cotutelle avec l'Université Joseph Fourier École Doctorale Ingénierie pour la Santé,la Cognition et l'Environnement (France)

Caractéristiques des structures turbulentes de l'écoulement et du transport en charge de fond en rivière à lit de graviers lors de la montée d'une crue

En rivière à lit de graviers, le transport des sédiments en charge de fond est un processus intermittent qui dépend de plusieurs variables du système fluvial dont la prédiction est encore aujourd’hui inexacte. Les modèles disponibles pour prédire le transport par charriage utilisent des variables d’écoulement moyen et la turbulence n’est généralement pas considérée malgré que les tourbillons contenus dans les écoulements possèdent une quantité d’énergie importante. L’utilisation de nouvelles approches pour étudier la problématique du transport par charriage pourrait nous permettre d’améliorer notre connaissance de ce processus déterminant en rivière alluviale. Dans ce mémoire, nous documentons ces composantes de la dynamique fluviale dans un cours d’eau graveleux en période de crue. Les objectifs du projet de recherche sont : 1) d’examiner l’effet du débit sur les variables turbulentes et les caractéristiques des structures turbulentes cohérentes, 2) d’investiguer l’effet du débit sur les caractéristiques des événements de transport de sédiments individuels détectés à l’aide d’un nouvel algorithme développé et testé et 3) de relier les caractéristiques de l’écoulement turbulent aux événements de transport de sédiments individuels. Les données de turbulence montrent qu’à haut niveau d’eau, l’écoulement décéléré est peu cohérent et a une turbulence plus isotrope où les structures turbulentes cohérentes sont de courte durée. Ces observations se distinguent de celles faites à faible niveau d’eau, en écoulement accéléré, où la plus grande cohérence de l’écoulement correspond à ce qui est généralement observé dans les écoulements uniformes en rivières graveleuses. Les distributions de fréquence des variables associées aux événements de transport individuel (intensité de transport moyenne, durée d’événement et intervalle entre événements successifs) ont des formes différentes pour chaque intensité de crue. À haut niveau d’eau, le transport est moins intermittent qu’à faible débit où les événements rares caractérisent davantage les distributions. L’accélération de l’écoulement à petite échelle de temps joue un rôle positif sur le transport, mais surtout lorsque la magnitude de la crue mobilisatrice est en dessous du niveau plein bord. Les résultats de l’étude montrent que les caractéristiques de la turbulence ainsi que les liens complexes entre l’écoulement et le transport par charriage sont fonction du débit.

A unified framework for the comprehension of software's time dimension

Les logiciels sont de plus en plus complexes et leur développement est souvent fait par des équipes dispersées et changeantes. Par ailleurs, de nos jours, la majorité des logiciels sont recyclés au lieu d’être développés à partir de zéro. La tâche de compréhension, inhérente aux tâches de maintenance, consiste à analyser plusieurs dimensions du logiciel en parallèle. La dimension temps intervient à deux niveaux dans le logiciel : il change durant son évolution et durant son exécution. Ces changements prennent un sens particulier quand ils sont analysés avec d’autres dimensions du logiciel. L’analyse de données multidimensionnelles est un problème difficile à résoudre. Cependant, certaines méthodes permettent de contourner cette difficulté. Ainsi, les approches semi-automatiques, comme la visualisation du logiciel, permettent à l’usager d’intervenir durant l’analyse pour explorer et guider la recherche d’informations. Dans une première étape de la thèse, nous appliquons des techniques de visualisation pour mieux comprendre la dynamique des logiciels pendant l’évolution et l’exécution. Les changements dans le temps sont représentés par des heat maps. Ainsi, nous utilisons la même représentation graphique pour visualiser les changements pendant l’évolution et ceux pendant l’exécution. Une autre catégorie d’approches, qui permettent de comprendre certains aspects dynamiques du logiciel, concerne l’utilisation d’heuristiques. Dans une seconde étape de la thèse, nous nous intéressons à l’identification des phases pendant l’évolution ou pendant l’exécution en utilisant la même approche. Dans ce contexte, la prémisse est qu’il existe une cohérence inhérente dans les évènements, qui permet d’isoler des sous-ensembles comme des phases. Cette hypothèse de cohérence est ensuite définie spécifiquement pour les évènements de changements de code (évolution) ou de changements d’état (exécution). L’objectif de la thèse est d’étudier l’unification de ces deux dimensions du temps que sont l’évolution et l’exécution. Ceci s’inscrit dans notre volonté de rapprocher les deux domaines de recherche qui s’intéressent à une même catégorie de problèmes, mais selon deux perspectives différentes.

Significance of Time Scales in Nonlinear Dynamical Analysis of Electroencephalogram Signals

We propose to show in this paper, that the time series obtained from biological systems such as human brain are invariably nonstationary because of different time scales involved in the dynamical process. This makes the invariant parameters time dependent. We made a global analysis of the EEG data obtained from the eight locations on the skull space and studied simultaneously the dynamical characteristics from various parts of the brain. We have proved that the dynamical parameters are sensitive to the time scales and hence in the study of brain one must identify all relevant time scales involved in the process to get an insight in the working of brain.

Shot noise anomalies in elastic nondegenerate diffusive conductors

We present a theoretical investigation of shot-noise properties in nondegenerate elastic diffusive conductors. Both Monte Carlo simulations and analytical approaches are used. Two interesting phenomena are found: (i) the display of enhanced shot noise for given energy dependences of the scattering time, and (ii) the recovery of full shot noise for asymptotic high applied bias. The first phenomenon is associated with the onset of negative differential conductivity in energy space that drives the system towards a dynamical electrical instability in excellent agreement with analytical predictions. The enhancement is found to be strongly amplified when the dimensionality in momentum space is lowered from three to two dimensions. The second phenomenon is due to the suppression of the effects of long-range Coulomb correlations that takes place when the transit time becomes the shortest time scale in the system, and is common to both elastic and inelastic nondegenerate diffusive conductors. These phenomena shed different light in the understanding of the anomalous behavior of shot noise in mesoscopic conductors, which is a signature of correlations among different current pulses.

Sedimentology and Geochemistry of core sediments from the Ashtamudi estuary and the adjoining coastal plain,central Kerala,India

The evolution of coast through geological time scale is dependent on the transgression-regression event subsequent to the rise or fall of sea level. This event is accounted by investigation of the vertical sediment deposition patterns and their interrelationship for paleo-enviornmental reconstruction. Different methods like sedimentological (grain size and micro-morphological) and geochemical (elemental relationship) analyses as well as radiocarbon dating are generally used to decipher the sea level changes and paleoclimatic conditions of the Quaternary sediment sequence. For the Indian coast with a coastline length of about 7500 km, studies on geological and geomorphological signatures of sea level changes during the Quaternary were reported in general by researchers during the last two decades. However, for the southwest coast of India particularily Kerala which is famous for its coastal landforms comprising of estuaries, lagoons, backwaters, coastal plains, cliffs and barrier beaches, studies pertaining to the marine transgression-regression events in the southern region are limited. The Neendakara-Kayamkulam coastal stretch in central Kerala where the coast is manifested with shore parallel Kayamkulam Lagoon on one side and shore perpendicular Ashtamudi Estuary on the other side indicating existence of an uplifted prograded coastal margin followed by barrier beaches, backwater channels, ridge and runnel topography is an ideal site for studying such events. Hence the present study has been taken up in this context to address the gap area. The location for collection of core samples representing coastal plain, estuarylagoon and offshore regions have been identified based on published literature and available sedimentary records. The objectives of the research work are:  To study the lithological variations and depositional environments of sediment cores along the coastal plain, estuary-lagoon and offshore regions between Kollam and Kayamkulam in the central Kerala coast  To study the transportation and diagenetic history of sediments in the area  To investigate the geochemical characterization of sediments and to elucidate the source-sink relationship  To understand the marine transgression-regression events and to propose a conceptual model for the region The thesis comprises of 8 chapters. The first chapter embodies the preamble for the selection and significance of this research work. The study area is introduced with details on its physiographical, geological, geomorphological, rainfall and climate information. A review of literature, compiling the research on different aspects such as physico-chemical, geomorphological, tectonics, transgression-regression events are presented in the second chapter and they are broadly classified into three viz:- International, National and Kerala. The field data collection and laboratory analyses adopted in the research work are discussed in the third chapter. For collection of sediment core samples from the coastal plains, rotary drilling method was employed whereas for the estuary-lagoon and offshore locations the gravity/piston corer method was adopted. The collected subsurficial samples were analysed for texture, surface micro-texture, elemental analysis, XRD and radiocarbon dating techniques for age determination. The fourth chapter deals with the textural analysis of the core samples collected from various predefined locations of the study area. The result reveals that the Ashtamudi Estuary is composed of silty clay to clayey type of sediments whereas offshore cores are carpeted with silty clay to relict sand. Investigation of the source of sediments deposited in the coastal plain located on either side of the estuary indicates the dominance of terrigenous to marine origin in the southern region whereas it is predominantly of marine origin towards the north. Further the hydrodynamic conditions as well as the depositional enviornment of the sediment cores are elucidated based on statistical parameters that decipher the deposition pattern at various locations viz., coastal plain (open to closed basin), Ashtamudi Estuary (partially open to restricted estuary to closed basin) and offshore (open channel). The intensity of clay minerals is also discussed. From the results of radiocarbon dating the sediment depositional environments were deciphered.The results of the microtextural study of sediment samples (quartz grains) using Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM) are presented in the fifth chapter. These results throw light on the processes of transport and diagenetic history of the detrital sediments. Based on the lithological variations, selected quartz grains of different environments were also analysed. The study indicates that the southern coastal plain sediments were transported and deposited mechanically under fluvial environment followed by diagenesis under prolonged marine incursion. But in the case of the northern coastal plain, the sediments were transported and deposited under littoral environment indicating the dominance of marine incursion through mechanical as well as chemical processes. The quartz grains of the Ashtamudi Estuary indicate fluvial origin. The surface texture features of the offshore sediments suggest that the quartz grains are of littoral origin and represent the relict beach deposits. The geochemical characterisation of sediment cores based on geochemical classification, sediment maturity, palaeo-weathering and provenance in different environments are discussed in the sixth chapter. In the seventh chapter the integration of multiproxies data along with radiocarbon dates are presented and finally evolution and depositional history based on transgression–regression events is deciphered. The eighth chapter summarizes the major findings and conclusions of the study with recommendation for future work.

Femtosecond time-resolved wave packet motion in molecular multiphoton ionization and fragmentation

The dynamics of molecular multiphoton ionization and fragmentation of a diatomic molecule (Na_2) have been studied in molecular beam experiments. Femtosecond laser pulses from an amplified colliding-pulse mode-locked (CPM) ring dye laser are employed to induce and probe the molecular transitions. The final continuum states are analyzed by photoelectron spectroscopy, by ion mass spectrometry and by measuring the kinetic energy of the formed ionic fragments. Pump-probe spectra employing 70-fs laser pulses have been measured to study the time dependence of molecular multiphoton ionization and fragmentation. The oscillatory structure of the transient spectra showing the dynamics on the femtosecond time scale can best be understood in terms of the motion of wave packets in bound molecular potentials. The transient Na_2^+ ionization and the transient Na^+ fragmentation spectra show that contributions from direct photoionization of a singly excited electronic state and from excitation and autoionization of a bound doubly excited molecular state determine the time evolution of molecular multiphoton ionization.

Many-body theory of laser-induced ultrafast demagnetization and angular momentum transfer in ferromagnetic transition metals

An electronic theory is developed, which describes the ultrafast demagnetization in itinerant ferromagnets following the absorption of a femtosecond laser pulse. The present work intends to elucidate the microscopic physics of this ultrafast phenomenon by identifying its fundamental mechanisms. In particular, it aims to reveal the nature of the involved spin excitations and angular-momentum transfer between spin and lattice, which are still subjects of intensive debate. In the first preliminary part of the thesis the initial stage of the laser-induced demagnetization process is considered. In this stage the electronic system is highly excited by spin-conserving elementary excitations involved in the laser-pulse absorption, while the spin or magnon degrees of freedom remain very weakly excited. The role of electron-hole excitations on the stability of the magnetic order of one- and two-dimensional 3d transition metals (TMs) is investigated by using ab initio density-functional theory. The results show that the local magnetic moments are remarkably stable even at very high levels of local energy density and, therefore, indicate that these moments preserve their identity throughout the entire demagnetization process. In the second main part of the thesis a many-body theory is proposed, which takes into account these local magnetic moments and the local character of the involved spin excitations such as spin fluctuations from the very beginning. In this approach the relevant valence 3d and 4p electrons are described in terms of a multiband model Hamiltonian which includes Coulomb interactions, interatomic hybridizations, spin-orbit interactions, as well as the coupling to the time-dependent laser field on the same footing. An exact numerical time evolution is performed for small ferromagnetic TM clusters. The dynamical simulations show that after ultra-short laser pulse absorption the magnetization of these clusters decreases on a time scale of hundred femtoseconds. In particular, the results reproduce the experimentally observed laser-induced demagnetization in ferromagnets and demonstrate that this effect can be explained in terms of the following purely electronic non-adiabatic mechanism: First, on a time scale of 10–100 fs after laser excitation the spin-orbit coupling yields local angular-momentum transfer between the spins and the electron orbits, while subsequently the orbital angular momentum is very rapidly quenched in the lattice on the time scale of one femtosecond due to interatomic electron hoppings. In combination, these two processes result in a demagnetization within hundred or a few hundred femtoseconds after laser-pulse absorption.

The impact of North Atlantic Oscillation on the atmospheric pollutant variability in the Porto region, Portugal

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is an important large-scale atmospheric circulation that influences the European countries climate. This study evaluated NAO impact in air quality in Porto Metropolitan Area (PMA), Portugal, for the period 2002-2006. NAO, air pollutants and meteorological data were statistically analyzed. All data were obtained from PMA Weather Station, PMA Air Quality Stations and NOAA analysis. Two statistical methods were applied in different time scale : principal component and correlation coefficient. Annual time scale, using multivariate analysis (PCA, principal component analysis), were applied in order to identified positive and significant association between air pollutants such as PM10, PM2.5, CO, NO and NO2, with NAO. On the other hand, the correlation coefficient using seasonal time scale were also applied to the same data. The results of PCA analysis present a general negative significant association between the total precipitation and NAO, in Factor 1 and 2 (explaining around 70% of the variance), presented in the years of 2002, 2004 and 2005. During the same years, some air pollutants (such as PM10, PM2.5, SO2, NOx and CO) present also a positive association with NAO. The O3 shows as well a positive association with NAP during 2002 and 2004, at 2nd Factor, explaining 30% of the variance. From the seasonal analysis using correlation coefficient, it was found significant correlation between PM10 (0.72., p<0.05, in 2002), PM2.5 (0 74, p<0.05, in 2004), and SO2 (0.78, p<0.01, in 2002) with NAO during March-December (no winter period) period. Significant associations between air pollutants and NAO were also verified in the winter period (December to April) mainly with ozone (2005, r=-0.55, p.<0.01). Once that human health and hospital morbidities may be affected by air pollution, the results suggest that NAO forecast can be an important tool to prevent them, in the Iberian Peninsula and specially Portugal.

Decadal Prediction. Can It Be Skillful?

A new field of study, “decadal prediction,” is emerging in climate science. Decadal prediction lies between seasonal/interannual forecasting and longer-term climate change projections, and focuses on time-evolving regional climate conditions over the next 10–30 yr. Numerous assessments of climate information user needs have identified this time scale as being important to infrastructure planners, water resource managers, and many others. It is central to the information portfolio required to adapt effectively to and through climatic changes. At least three factors influence time-evolving regional climate at the decadal time scale: 1) climate change commitment (further warming as the coupled climate system comes into adjustment with increases of greenhouse gases that have already occurred), 2) external forcing, particularly from future increases of greenhouse gases and recovery of the ozone hole, and 3) internally generated variability. Some decadal prediction skill has been demonstrated to arise from the first two of these factors, and there is evidence that initialized coupled climate models can capture mechanisms of internally generated decadal climate variations, thus increasing predictive skill globally and particularly regionally. Several methods have been proposed for initializing global coupled climate models for decadal predictions, all of which involve global time-evolving three-dimensional ocean data, including temperature and salinity. An experimental framework to address decadal predictability/prediction is described in this paper and has been incorporated into the coordinated Coupled Model Intercomparison Model, phase 5 (CMIP5) experiments, some of which will be assessed for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). These experiments will likely guide work in this emerging field over the next 5 yr.