Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5

We present the global general circulation model IPSL-CM5 developed to study the long-term response of the climate system to natural and anthropogenic forcings as part of the 5th Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). This model includes an interactive carbon cycle, a representation of tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry, and a comprehensive representation of aerosols. As it represents the principal dynamical, physical, and bio-geochemical processes relevant to the climate system, it may be referred to as an Earth System Model. However, the IPSL-CM5 model may be used in a multitude of configurations associated with different boundary conditions and with a range of complexities in terms of processes and interactions. This paper presents an overview of the different model components and explains how they were coupled and used to simulate historical climate changes over the past 150 years and different scenarios of future climate change. A single version of the IPSL-CM5 model (IPSL-CM5A-LR) was used to provide climate projections associated with different socio-economic scenarios, including the different Representative Concentration Pathways considered by CMIP5 and several scenarios from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios considered by CMIP3. Results suggest that the magnitude of global warming projections primarily depends on the socio-economic scenario considered, that there is potential for an aggressive mitigation policy to limit global warming to about two degrees, and that the behavior of some components of the climate system such as the Arctic sea ice and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation may change drastically by the end of the twenty-first century in the case of a no climate policy scenario. Although the magnitude of regional temperature and precipitation changes depends fairly linearly on the magnitude of the projected global warming (and thus on the scenario considered), the geographical pattern of these changes is strikingly similar for the different scenarios. The representation of atmospheric physical processes in the model is shown to strongly influence the simulated climate variability and both the magnitude and pattern of the projected climate changes.

Uncertainties in tidally adjusted estimates of sea level rise flooding (bathtub model) for the Greater London

Sea-level rise (SLR) from global warming may have severe consequences for coastal cities, particularly when combined with predicted increases in the strength of tidal surges. Predicting the regional impact of SLR flooding is strongly dependent on the modelling approach and accuracy of topographic data. Here, the areas under risk of sea water flooding for London boroughs were quantified based on the projected SLR scenarios reported in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment report (AR5) and UK climatic projections 2009 (UKCP09) using a tidally-adjusted bathtub modelling approach. Medium- to very high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) are used to evaluate inundation extents as well as uncertainties. Depending on the SLR scenario and DEMs used, it is estimated that 3%–8% of the area of Greater London could be inundated by 2100. The boroughs with the largest areas at risk of flooding are Newham, Southwark, and Greenwich. The differences in inundation areas estimated from a digital terrain model and a digital surface model are much greater than the root mean square error differences observed between the two data types, which may be attributed to processing levels. Flood models from SRTM data underestimate the inundation extent, so their results may not be reliable for constructing flood risk maps. This analysis provides a broad-scale estimate of the potential consequences of SLR and uncertainties in the DEM-based bathtub type flood inundation modelling for London boroughs.

Joint dynamic probabilistic constraints with projected linear decision rules

We consider multistage stochastic linear optimization problems combining joint dynamic probabilistic constraints with hard constraints. We develop a method for projecting decision rules onto hard constraints of wait-and-see type. We establish the relation between the original (in nite dimensional) problem and approximating problems working with projections from di erent subclasses of decision policies. Considering the subclass of linear decision rules and a generalized linear model for the underlying stochastic process with noises that are Gaussian or truncated Gaussian, we show that the value and gradient of the objective and constraint functions of the approximating problems can be computed analytically.

Estudo de massa cerâmica triaxial visando à otimização do ciclo de queima da indústria de cerâmica estrutural

Over recent years the structural ceramics industry in Brazil has found a very favorable market for growth. However, difficulties related to productivity and product quality are partially inhibiting this possible growth. An alternative for trying to solve these problems and, thus, provide the pottery industry the feasibility of full development, is the substitution of firewood used in the burning process by natural gas. In order to contribute to this process of technological innovation, this paper studies the effect of co-use of ceramic phyllite and kaolin waste on the properties of a clay matrix, verifying the possible benefits that these raw materials can give to the final product, as well as the possibility of such materials to reduce the heat load necessary to obtain products with equal or superior quality. The study was divided into two steps: characterization of materials and study of formulations. Two clays, a phyllite and a residue of kaolin were characterized by the following techniques: laser granulometry, plasticity index by Atterberg limits, X-ray fluorescence, X-ray diffraction, mineralogical composition by Rietveld, thermogravimetric and differential thermal analysis. To study the formulations, specifically for evaluation of technological properties of the parts, was performed an experimental model that combined planning involving a mixture of three components (standard mass x phyllite x kaolin waste) and a 23 factorial design with central point associated with thermal processing parameters. The experiment was performed with restricted strip-plot randomization. In total, 13 compositional points were investigated within the following constraints: phyllite ≤ 20% by weight, kaolin waste ≤ 40% by weight, and standard mass ≥ 60% by weight. The thermal parameters were used at the following levels: 750 and 950 °C to the firing temperature, 5 and 15 °C/min at the heating rate, 15 and 45min to the baseline. The results showed that the introduction of phyllite and/or kaolin waste in ceramic body produced a number of benefits in properties of the final product, such as: decreased absorption of water, apparent porosity and linear retraction at burn; besides the increase in apparent specific mass and mechanical properties of parts. The best results were obtained in the compositional points where the sum of the levels of kaolin waste and phyllite was maximal (40% by weight), as well as conditions which were used in firing temperatures of 950 °C. Regarding the prospect of savings in heat energy required to form the desired microstructure, the phyllite and the residue of kaolin, for having small particle sizes and constitutions mineralogical phases with the presence of fluxes, contributed to the optimization of the firing cycle.

Projected length annealing of etched Sm-152 ion tracks in apatite

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Strutural and optical approach of CdS@ZnS core-shell system

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Evaluation of the RB-RB/LB-LB mnemonic rule for recording optimally projected intraoral images of dental implants: an in vitro study

Objective: The aim of this study was to evaluate a simple mnemonic rule (the RB-RB/LB-LB rule) for recording intra-oral radiographs with optimal projection for the control of dental implants.Methods: 30 third-year dental students received a short lesson in the RB-RB/LB-LB mnemonic rule. The rule is as follows: if right blur then raise beam (RB-RB), i.e. if implant threads are blurred at the right side of the implant, the X-ray beam direction must be raised towards the ceiling to obtain sharp threads on both implant sides; if left blur then lower beam (LB-LB), i.e. if implant threads are blurred at the left side of the implant, the X-ray beam direction must be lowered towards the floor to obtain sharp threads on both implant sides. Intra-oral radiographs of four screw-type implants placed with different inclination in a Frasaco upper or lower jaw dental model (Frasaco GmbH, Tettnang, Germany) were recorded. The students were unaware of the inclination of the implants and were instructed to re-expose each implant, implementing the mnemonic rule, until an image of the implant with acceptable quality (subjectively judged by the instructor) was obtained. Subsequently, each radiograph was blindly assessed with respect to sharpness of the implant threads and assigned to one of four quality categories: (1) perfect, (2) not perfect, but clinically acceptable, (3) not acceptable and (4) hopeless.Results: For all implants, from one non-perfect exposure to the following, a higher score was obtained in 64% of the cases, 28% received the same score and 8% obtained a lower score. Only a small variation was observed among exposures of implants with different inclination. on average, two exposures per implant (range: one to eight exposures) were needed to obtain a clinically acceptable image.Conclusion: The RB-RB/LB-LB mnemonic rule for recording intra-oral radiographs of dental implants with a correct projection was easy to implement by inexperienced examiners. Dentomaxillofacial Radiology (2012) 41, 298-304. doi: 10.1259/dmfr/20861598

The energy landscape for solvent dynamics in electron transfer reactions: A minimalist model

Energy fluctuations of a solute molecule embedded in a polar solvent are investigated to depict the energy landscape for solvation dynamics. The system is modeled by a charged molecule surrounded by two layers of solvent dipolar molecules with simple rotational dynamics. Individual solvent molecules are treated as simple dipoles that can point toward or away from the central charge (Ising spins). Single-spin-flip Monte Carlo kinetics simulations are carried out in a two-dimensional lattice for different central charges, radii of outer shell, and temperatures. By analyzing the density of states as a function of energy and temperatures, we have determined the existence of multiple freezing transitions. Each of them can be associated with the freezing of a different layer of the solvent. (C) 2002 American Institute of Physics.

Application of the modified Cam-Clay model to a residual soil

The modified Cam - Clay model was used to model experimental results of a saturated residual sandy soil from Sao Carlos - SP. Triaxial compression tests were performed using Bishop - Wesley cell with internal transducers to measure axial and radial strains. It was observed that the model fairly fitted experimental results, specially the principal stress difference at critical state. In general it was observed a good qualitative agreement between experimental and predicted strain values, considering compression or expansion of the samples. However, in all the stress path used, but 100 degrees and 140 degrees, the model yielded strains larger than that measured in the tests.

THE PHYSICAL CONTENT OF THE SP(1,R) MODEL

We analyse the properties of the Sp(1, R) model states using a basis obtained from the deformed harmonic oscillator wavefunctions. We make an Sp(1, R) calculation for C-12 and consider bases obtained from oblate, triaxial and prolate intrinsic states. The model states are given by angular momentum projection of vibrational phonons, which are associated with giant monopole and quadrupole resonances.

Quantitative estimates of time-averaging in terebratulid brachiopod shell accumulations from a modern tropical shelf

Quantitative estimates of time-averaging in marine shell accumulations available to date are limited primarily to aragonitic mollusk shells. We assessed time-averaging in Holocene assemblages of calcitic brachiopod shells by direct dating of individual specimens of the terebratulid brachiopod Bouchardia rosea. The data were collected from exceptional (brachiopod-rich) shell assemblages, occurring surficially on a tropical mixed carbonate-siliciclastic shelf (the Southeast Brazilian Bight, SW Atlantic), a setting that provides a good climatic and environmental analog for many Paleozoic brachiopod shell beds of North America and Europe. A total of 82 individual brachiopod shells, collected from four shallow (5-25 m) nearshore (<2.5 km from the shore) localities, were dated by using amino acid racemization (D-alloisoleucine/L-isoleucine value) calibrated with five AMS-radiocarbon dates (r(2) = 0.933). This is the first study to demonstrate that amino acid racemization methods can provide accurate and precise ages for individual shells of calcitic brachiopods.The dated shells vary in age from modern to 3000 years, with a standard deviation of 690 years. The age distribution is strongly right-skewed: the young shells dominate the dated specimens and older shells are increasingly less common. However, the four localities display significant differences in the range of time-averaging and the form of the age distribution. The dated shells vary notably in the quality of preservation, but there is no significant correlation between taphonomic condition and age, either for individual shells or at assemblage level.These results demonstrate that fossil brachiopods may show considerable time-averaging, but the scale and nature of that mixing may vary greatly among sites. Moreover, taphonomic condition is not a reliable indicator of pre-burial history of individual brachiopod shells or the scale of temporal mixing within the entire assemblage. The results obtained for brachiopods are strikingly similar to results previously documented for mollusks and suggest that differences in mineralogy and shell microstructure are unlikely to be the primary factors controlling the nature and scale of time-averaging. Environmental factors and local fluctuations in populations of shell-producing organisms are more likely to be the principal determinants of time-averaging in marine benthic shelly assemblages. The long-term survival of brachiopod shells is incongruent with the rapid shell destruction observed in taphonomic experiments. The results support the taphonomic model that shells remain protected below (but perhaps near) the surface through their early taphonomic history. They may be brought back up to the surface intermittently by bioturbation and physical reworking, but only for short periods of time. This model explains the striking similarities in time-averaging among different types of organisms and the lack of correlation between time-since-death and shell taphonomy.

Polyacids self-dissociation model

This work deals with a model to interpret pH measurements of solutions of weak rodlike polyacids, in the absence of added salts or titrating base. The polyacid is modeled as a series of point charges discretely distributod in a straight line with a distance of closest approach for the protons and an average distance between dissociable monomers, projected in the polymer chain axis. Aside from these two geometrical parameters, the dissociation constant for the isolated monomer that describes the proton dissociated monomer interaction forms the basis of the model. The assumption of cylindrical symmetry and the adoption of the cell model lead to a form written in terms of elementary functions for the mean electrostatic potential. Values of pH (related to the proton concentration in a region beyond the influence of the polyacid) as a function of polymer concentration are displayed graphically for some values of the geometrical parameters and of the dissociation, constant. Theoretical predictions of pH values as a function of polymeric concentration are compared with measured values for poly-L-glutamic and polygalacturonic acids, and a good agreement is found. Theoretical values for the dissociation degree in terms of polymeric concentration are shown for the two experimentally investigated systems. These values are in a range appreciably smaller than what is usually studied as a result of titration.

Radiative corrections for the gauged Thirring model in causal perturbation theory

We evaluate the one-loop fermion self-energy for the gauged Thirring model in (2+1) dimensions. with one massive fermion flavor. We do this in the framework of the causal perturbation theory. In contrast to QED3, the corresponding two-point function turns out to be infrared finite on the mass shell. Then, by means of a Ward identity, we derive the on-shell vertex correction and discuss the role played by causality for non-renormalizable theories.

The employment situation in Latin America and the Caribbean: Recovery of employment: towards a sustainable model

The adverse effects on Latin America and the Caribbean of the global economic and financial crisis, the worst since the 1930s, have been considerably less than was once feared. Although a run of growth was cut short in 2009 and regional output shrank by 1.9%, the impact of the crisis was limited by the application of countercyclical fiscal and monetary policies by many of the region’s governments. The recovery in the economies, particularly in South America, has gone hand-in-hand with the rapid resurgence of the emerging economies of Asia, with all the favourable consequences this has had for global trade. A similar pattern may be observed regarding the impact of the crisis on labour markets in Latin America and the Caribbean. Although millions of people lost their jobs or had to trade down to lower-quality work, levels of employment (including formal employment) fell by less than originally foreseen. At the same time, real wages rose slightly in a context of falling inflation. The labour market thus stabilized domestic demand, and this contributed to the recovery that began in many countries in late 2009. Improved international trade and financing conditions, and the pick-up in domestic demand driven by macroeconomic policies, have led different commentators to estimate growth in the region’s economy at some 6% in 2010. As detailed in the first part of this edition of the Bulletin, the upturn has been manifested at the regional level by the creation of formal employment, a rise in the employment rate, a decline in joblessness and a moderate increase in real wages. Specifically, it is estimatedthat the regional unemployment rate will have dropped by 0.6 percentage points, from 8.1% in 2009 to 7.5% in 2010. The performance of different countries and subregions has been very uneven, however. On the one hand, there is Brazil, where high economic growth has been accompanied by vigorous creation of formal jobs and the unemployment rate has dropped to levels not seen in a long time. Other countries in South America have benefited from strong demand for natural resources from the Asian countries. Combined with higher domestic demand, this has raised their economic growth rates and had a positive impact on employment indicators. On the other hand, the recovery is still very weak in certain countries and subregions, particularly in the Caribbean, with employment indicators continuing to worsen.Thus, the recovery in the region’s economy in 2010 may be characterized as dynamic but uneven. Growth estimates for 2011 are less favourable. The risks associated with the imbalances in the world economy and the withdrawal of countercyclical fiscal packages are likely to cause the region to grow more slowly in 2011. Accordingly, a small further reduction of between 0.2 and 0.4 percentage points in the unemployment rate is projected for 2011. However, these indicators of recovery do not guarantee growth with decent work in the long term. To bolster the improvement in labour market indicators and generate more productive employment and decent work, the region’s countries need to strengthen their macroeconomic policies, improve regional and global policy coordination, identify and remove bottlenecks in the labour market itself and enhance instruments designed to promote greater equality. Like the rest of the world, the Latin American and Caribbean region is also confronted with the challenge of transforming the way it produces so that its economies can develop along tracks that are sustainable in the long term. Climate change and the consequent challenge of developing and strengthening low-carbon production and consumption patterns will also affect the way people work. A great challenge ahead is to create green jobs that combine decent work with environmentally sustainable production patterns. From this perspective, the second part of this Bulletin discusses the green jobs approach, offering some information on the challenges and opportunities involved in moving towards a sustainable economy in the region and presenting a set of options for addressing environmental issues and the repercussions of climate change in the world of work. Although the debate about the green jobs concept is fairly new in the region, examples already exist and a number of countries have moved ahead with the application of policies and programmes in this area. Costa Rica has formulated a National Climate Change Strategy, for example, whose foremost achievements include professional training in natural-resource management. In Brazil, fuel production from biomass has increased and social housing with solar panelling is being built. A number of other countries in the region are making progress in areas such as ecotourism, sustainable agriculture and infrastructure for climate change adaptation, and in formalizing the work of people who recycle household waste. The shift towards a more environmentally sustainable economy may cause jobs to be destroyed in some economic sectors and created in others. The working world will inevitably undergo major changes. If the issue is approached by way of social dialogue and appropriate public policies, there is a chance to use this shift to create more decent jobs, thereby contributing to growth in the economy, the construction of higher levels of equality and protection for the environment.

MOISTURE SORPTION CHARACTERISTICS OF PINEAPPLE PROCESSING WASTE: SHELL AND CENTRAL CYLINDER

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)