Efficient methods for empirical tests of behavioral economics theories in laboratory and field experiments

In the quest for a descriptive theory of decision-making, the rational actor model in economics imposes rather unrealistic expectations and abilities on human decision makers. The further we move from idealized scenarios, such as perfectly competitive markets, and ambitiously extend the reach of the theory to describe everyday decision making situations, the less sense these assumptions make. Behavioural economics has instead proposed models based on assumptions that are more psychologically realistic, with the aim of gaining more precision and descriptive power. Increased psychological realism, however, comes at the cost of a greater number of parameters and model complexity. Now there are a plethora of models, based on different assumptions, applicable in differing contextual settings, and selecting the right model to use tends to be an ad-hoc process. In this thesis, we develop optimal experimental design methods and evaluate different behavioral theories against evidence from lab and field experiments.

We look at evidence from controlled laboratory experiments. Subjects are presented with choices between monetary gambles or lotteries. Different decision-making theories evaluate the choices differently and would make distinct predictions about the subjects' choices. Theories whose predictions are inconsistent with the actual choices can be systematically eliminated. Behavioural theories can have multiple parameters requiring complex experimental designs with a very large number of possible choice tests. This imposes computational and economic constraints on using classical experimental design methods. We develop a methodology of adaptive tests: Bayesian Rapid Optimal Adaptive Designs (BROAD) that sequentially chooses the "most informative" test at each stage, and based on the response updates its posterior beliefs over the theories, which informs the next most informative test to run. BROAD utilizes the Equivalent Class Edge Cutting (EC²) criteria to select tests. We prove that the EC² criteria is adaptively submodular, which allows us to prove theoretical guarantees against the Bayes-optimal testing sequence even in the presence of noisy responses. In simulated ground-truth experiments, we find that the EC² criteria recovers the true hypotheses with significantly fewer tests than more widely used criteria such as Information Gain and Generalized Binary Search. We show, theoretically as well as experimentally, that surprisingly these popular criteria can perform poorly in the presence of noise, or subject errors. Furthermore, we use the adaptive submodular property of EC² to implement an accelerated greedy version of BROAD which leads to orders of magnitude speedup over other methods.

We use BROAD to perform two experiments. First, we compare the main classes of theories for decision-making under risk, namely: expected value, prospect theory, constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) and moments models. Subjects are given an initial endowment, and sequentially presented choices between two lotteries, with the possibility of losses. The lotteries are selected using BROAD, and 57 subjects from Caltech and UCLA are incentivized by randomly realizing one of the lotteries chosen. Aggregate posterior probabilities over the theories show limited evidence in favour of CRRA and moments' models. Classifying the subjects into types showed that most subjects are described by prospect theory, followed by expected value. Adaptive experimental design raises the possibility that subjects could engage in strategic manipulation, i.e. subjects could mask their true preferences and choose differently in order to obtain more favourable tests in later rounds thereby increasing their payoffs. We pay close attention to this problem; strategic manipulation is ruled out since it is infeasible in practice, and also since we do not find any signatures of it in our data.

In the second experiment, we compare the main theories of time preference: exponential discounting, hyperbolic discounting, "present bias" models: quasi-hyperbolic (α, β) discounting and fixed cost discounting, and generalized-hyperbolic discounting. 40 subjects from UCLA were given choices between 2 options: a smaller but more immediate payoff versus a larger but later payoff. We found very limited evidence for present bias models and hyperbolic discounting, and most subjects were classified as generalized hyperbolic discounting types, followed by exponential discounting.

In these models the passage of time is linear. We instead consider a psychological model where the perception of time is subjective. We prove that when the biological (subjective) time is positively dependent, it gives rise to hyperbolic discounting and temporal choice inconsistency.

We also test the predictions of behavioral theories in the "wild". We pay attention to prospect theory, which emerged as the dominant theory in our lab experiments of risky choice. Loss aversion and reference dependence predicts that consumers will behave in a uniquely distinct way than the standard rational model predicts. Specifically, loss aversion predicts that when an item is being offered at a discount, the demand for it will be greater than that explained by its price elasticity. Even more importantly, when the item is no longer discounted, demand for its close substitute would increase excessively. We tested this prediction using a discrete choice model with loss-averse utility function on data from a large eCommerce retailer. Not only did we identify loss aversion, but we also found that the effect decreased with consumers' experience. We outline the policy implications that consumer loss aversion entails, and strategies for competitive pricing.

In future work, BROAD can be widely applicable for testing different behavioural models, e.g. in social preference and game theory, and in different contextual settings. Additional measurements beyond choice data, including biological measurements such as skin conductance, can be used to more rapidly eliminate hypothesis and speed up model comparison. Discrete choice models also provide a framework for testing behavioural models with field data, and encourage combined lab-field experiments.

Comparison of uniform amplitude beam and intercepted Gaussian beam superresolution theories

The general superresolution theories for uniform amplitude beams and intercepted Gaussian beams are investigated. For these two types of incident beam, both two-zone amplitude and pure-phase filters are adopted to provide specific numerical descriptions of their differences in superresolution performances. Simulated results of comparisons between their performances indicate that, with the same spot size ratio, the intercepted Gaussian beam achieves a higher central image brightness ratio and significantly lower side-lobe effect irrespective of the filter used. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Double layers in gravity theories

Gravitational double layers, unlike their classical electromagnetic counterparts, are thought to be forbidden in gravity theories. It has been recently shown, however, that they are feasible in, for instance, gravity theories with a Lagrangian quadratic in the curvature. This is surprising with many potential consequences and the possibility of new physical behaviours. While a clear interpretation seems elusive, several lines of research are open. I present the field equations for double layers, the new physical quantities arising, and several explicit examples

The user-value of rural electrification: An analysis and adoption of existing models and theories

User-value is a determining factor for product acceptance in product design. Research on rural electrification to date, however, does not draw sufficient attention to the importance of user-value with regard to the overall success of a project. This is evident from the analysis of project reports and applicable indicators from agencies active in the sector. Learning from the design, psychology and sociology literatures, it is important that rural electrification projects incorporate the value perception of the end-user and extend their success beyond the commonly used criteria of financial value, the appropriateness of the technology, capacity building and technology uptake. Creating value for the end-user is particularly important for project acceptance and the sustainability of a scheme once it has been handed over to the local community. In this research paper, existing theories and models of value-theory are transposed and applied to community operated rural electrification schemes and a user-value framework is developed. Furthermore, the importance of value to the end-user is clarified. Current literature on product design reveals that user-value has different properties, many of which are applicable to rural electrification. Five value pillars and their sub-categories important for the users of rural electrification projects are identified, namely: functional; social significance; epistemic; emotional; and cultural values. These pillars provide the main structure for the conceptual framework developed in this research paper. It is proposed that by targeting the values of the end-user, the key factors of user-value applicable to rural electrification projects will be identified and the sustainability of the project will be better ensured. © 2014 The Authors.

CONTINUUM-THEORIES OF OPTICAL PHONONS AND POLARITONS IN SUPERLATTICES - A BRIEF CRITIQUE - COMMENT

The so-called hydrodynamic (HD) model on optical-phonon modes in superlattices is critically examined. Contrary to the HD model, a comparison between TM polaritons and the Fuchs-Kliewer-type interface modes has shown that the Fuchs-Kliewer interface modes do possess Frohlich potentials.

The generalized second law of thermodynamics in generalized gravity theories

We investigate the generalized second law of thermodynamics (GSL) in generalized theories of gravity. We examine the total entropy evolution with time including the horizon entropy, the non-equilibrium entropy production, and the entropy of all matter, field and energy components. We derive a universal condition to protect the generalized second law and study its validity in different gravity theories. In Einstein gravity (even in the phantom-dominated universe with a Schwarzschild black hole), Lovelock gravity and braneworld gravity, we show that the condition to keep the GSL can always be satisfied. In f ( R) gravity and scalar-tensor gravity, the condition to protect the GSL can also hold because the temperature should be positive, gravity is always attractive and the effective Newton constant should be an approximate constant satisfying the experimental bounds.