Empirical Bayes method in the study of traffic safety via heterogeneous negative multinomial model

In the study of traffic safety, expected crash frequencies across sites are generally estimated via the negative binomial model, assuming time invariant safety. Since the time invariant safety assumption may be invalid, Hauer (1997) proposed a modified empirical Bayes (EB) method. Despite the modification, no attempts have been made to examine the generalisable form of the marginal distribution resulting from the modified EB framework. Because the hyper-parameters needed to apply the modified EB method are not readily available, an assessment is lacking on how accurately the modified EB method estimates safety in the presence of the time variant safety and regression-to-the-mean (RTM) effects. This study derives the closed form marginal distribution, and reveals that the marginal distribution in the modified EB method is equivalent to the negative multinomial (NM) distribution, which is essentially the same as the likelihood function used in the random effects Poisson model. As a result, this study shows that the gamma posterior distribution from the multivariate Poisson-gamma mixture can be estimated using the NM model or the random effects Poisson model. This study also shows that the estimation errors from the modified EB method are systematically smaller than those from the comparison group method by simultaneously accounting for the RTM and time variant safety effects. Hence, the modified EB method via the NM model is a generalisable method for estimating safety in the presence of the time variant safety and the RTM effects.

Theoretical model of user acceptance : in the view of measuring success in web personalization

This paper attempts to develop a theoretical acceptance model for measuring Web personalization success. Key factors impacting Web personalization acceptance are identified from a detailed literature review. The final model is then cast in a structural equation modeling (SEM) framework comprising nineteen manifest variables, which are grouped into three focal behaviors of Web users. These variables could provide a framework for better understanding of numerous factors that contribute to the success measures of Web personalization technology. Especially, those concerning the quality of personalized features and how personalized information through personalized Website can be delivered to the user. The interrelationship between success constructs is also explained. Empirical validations of this theoretical model are expected on future research.

Brisbane floods : a traffic and transport perspective

Flood-besieged Brisbane residents were forced to watch the monster river consume their homes and livelihoods then see the receding water leave behind a putrid, tar-like sludge. The rains formed by multiple low pressure systems over Central Queensland caused chaos over the Christmas and New Year break for many parts of Queensland.

Policing lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender young people : a gap in the research literature

This article argues for exploring lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) young people’s experiences with police. While research examines how factors such as indigeneity influence young peoples’ experiences with police, how sexuality and/or gender identity mediates these relationships remains largely unexplored. Key bodies of research suggest a need to explore this area further, including: literature documenting links between homophobic violence against LGBT young people and outcomes such as homelessness that fall within the gambit of policing work; research showing reluctance of LGBT communities to report crime to police; international research documenting homophobic police attitudes and Australian research demonstrating arguably homophobic court outcomes; and research outlining increasing police support of LGBT communities. Drawing on these bodies of literature, this article argues that LGBT young people experience policing warrants further research.

Overloading truck traffic study and strategy to minimise it

Overloaded truck traffic is a significant problem on highways around the world. Developing countries in particular, overloaded truck traffic causes large amounts of unexpected expenditure in terms of road maintenance because of premature pavement damage. Overloaded truck traffic is a common phenomenon in developing countries, because of inefficient road management and monitoring systems. According to the available literature, many developing countries are facing the same problem, which is economic loss caused by the existence of overloaded trucks in the traffic stream. This paper summarizes the available literature, news reports, journal articles and traffic research regarding overloaded traffic. It examines the issue of overloading and the strategies and legislation used in developed countries.

Increased traffic exposure and negative birth outcomes : a prospective cohort in Australia

Background: Pregnant women exposed to traffic pollution have an increased risk of negative birth outcomes. We aimed to investigate the size of this risk using a prospective cohort of 970 mothers and newborns in Logan, Queensland. ----- ----- Methods: We examined two measures of traffic: distance to nearest road and number of roads around the home. To examine the effect of distance we used the number of roads around the home in radii from 50 to 500 metres. We examined three road types: freeways, highways and main roads.----- ----- Results: There were no associations with distance to road. A greater number of freeways and main roads around the home were associated with a shorter gestation time. There were no negative impacts on birth weight, birth length or head circumference after adjusting for gestation. The negative effects on gestation were largely due to main roads within 400 metres of the home. For every 10 extra main roads within 400 metres of the home, gestation time was reduced by 1.1% (95% CI: -1.7, -0.5; p-value = 0.001).----- ----- Conclusions: Our results add weight to the association between exposure to traffic and reduced gestation time. This effect may be due to the chemical toxins in traffic pollutants, or because of disturbed sleep due to traffic noise.

Impact of traffic oscillations on freeway crash occurrences

Traffic oscillations are typical features of congested traffic flow that are characterized by recurring decelerations followed by accelerations (stop-and-go driving). The negative environmental impacts of these oscillations are widely accepted, but their impact on traffic safety has been debated. This paper describes the impact of freeway traffic oscillations on traffic safety. This study employs a matched case-control design using high-resolution traffic and crash data from a freeway segment. Traffic conditions prior to each crash were taken as cases, while traffic conditions during the same periods on days without crashes were taken as controls. These were also matched by presence of congestion, geometry and weather. A total of 82 cases and about 80,000 candidate controls were extracted from more than three years of data from 2004 to 2007. Conditional logistic regression models were developed based on the case-control samples. To verify consistency in the results, 20 different sets of controls were randomly extracted from the candidate pool for varying control-case ratios. The results reveal that the standard deviation of speed (thus, oscillations) is a significant variable, with an average odds ratio of about 1.08. This implies that the likelihood of a (rear-end) crash increases by about 8% with an additional unit increase in the standard deviation of speed. The average traffic states prior to crashes were less significant than the speed variations in congestion.

Applications of wavelet transform for analysis of freeway traffic : bottlenecks, transient traffic, and traffic oscillations

This paper demonstrates the capabilities of wavelet transform (WT) for analyzing important features related to bottleneck activations and traffic oscillations in congested traffic in a systematic manner. In particular, the analysis of loop detector data from a freeway shows that the use of wavelet-based energy can effectively identify the location of an active bottleneck, the arrival time of the resulting queue at each upstream sensor location, and the start and end of a transition during the onset of a queue. Vehicle trajectories were also analyzed using WT and our analysis shows that the wavelet-based energies of individual vehicles can effectively detect the origins of deceleration waves and shed light on possible triggers (e.g., lane-changing). The spatiotemporal propagations of oscillations identified by tracing wavelet-based energy peaks from vehicle to vehicle enable analysis of oscillation amplitude, duration and intensity.

Freeway traffic oscillations : microscopic analysis of formations and propagations using Wavelet Transform

In this paper we identify the origins of stop-and-go (or slow-and-go) driving and measure microscopic features of their propagations by analyzing vehicle trajectories via Wavelet Transform. Based on 53 oscillation cases analyzed, we find that oscillations can be originated by either lane-changing maneuvers (LCMs) or car-following behavior (CF). LCMs were predominantly responsible for oscillation formations in the absence of considerable horizontal or vertical curves, whereas oscillations formed spontaneously near roadside work on an uphill segment. Regardless of the trigger, the features of oscillation propagations were similar in terms of propagation speed, oscillation duration, and amplitude. All observed cases initially exhibited a precursor phase, in which slow-and-go motions were localized. Some of them eventually transitioned into a well developed phase, in which oscillations propagated upstream in queue. LCMs were primarily responsible for the transition, although some transitions occurred without LCMs. Our findings also suggest that an oscillation has a regressive effect on car following behavior: a deceleration wave of an oscillation affects a timid driver (with larger response time and minimum spacing) to become less timid and an aggressive driver less aggressive, although this change may be short-lived. An extended framework of Newell’s CF is able to describe the regressive effects with two additional parameters with reasonable accuracy, as verified using vehicle trajectory data.

Empirical analysis of freeway traffic oscillation : its safety impact and evolution

Traffic oscillations are typical features of congested traffic flow that are characterized by recurring decelerations followed by accelerations. However, people have limited knowledge on this complex topic. In this research, 1) the impact of traffic oscillations on freeway crash occurrences has been measured using the matched case-control design. The results consistently reveal that oscillations have a more significant impact on freeway safety than the average traffic states. 2) Wavelet Transform has been adopted to locate oscillations' origins and measure their characteristics along their propagation paths using vehicle trajectory data. 3) Lane changing maneuver's impact on the immediate follower is measured and modeled. The knowledge and the new models generated from this study could provide better understanding on fundamentals of congested traffic; enable improvements to existing traffic control strategies and freeway crash countermeasures; and instigate people to develop new operational strategies with the objective of reducing the negative effects of oscillatory driving.

Closing the gap between policy and 'Law' : Indigenous homelands and a working future

The Northern Territory Government's Working Future: Outstations/Homelands (2009) policy statement gives effect to the Council of Australian Government's Closing the Gap policy on Indigenous housing and remote service delivery. These policies mark a radical shift in public policy that winds back the outstations and homelands movement that began in the 1970's. This paper examines Indigenous homelands policy and considers whether these policies are consistent with the Indigenous human rights and in particular the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples (2007), which Australia endorsed in 2009. The author argues that the current homelands policy breaches a number of Indigenous human rights and promotes assimiliation by forcing Indigenous Australians to relocate to access basic services such as health, housing and education. As a consequence these policies are counter-intuitive to the overall Closing the Gap goals of improving Indigenous health outcomes because they fail to take into account the importance of country and culture to Indigenous wellbeing. She concludes that Australian governments need to formulate a homelands policy that is consistent with Indigenous human rights and in particular the right of self determination, enjoyment of culture and protection against forced assimilation.

Multicast traffic filtering for sampled value process bus networks

Ethernet is a key component of the standards used for digital process buses in transmission substations, namely IEC 61850 and IEEE Std 1588-2008 (PTPv2). These standards use multicast Ethernet frames that can be processed by more than one device. This presents some significant engineering challenges when implementing a sampled value process bus due to the large amount of network traffic. A system of network traffic segregation using a combination of Virtual LAN (VLAN) and multicast address filtering using managed Ethernet switches is presented. This includes VLAN prioritisation of traffic classes such as the IEC 61850 protocols GOOSE, MMS and sampled values (SV), and other protocols like PTPv2. Multicast address filtering is used to limit SV/GOOSE traffic to defined subsets of subscribers. A method to map substation plant reference designations to multicast address ranges is proposed that enables engineers to determine the type of traffic and location of the source by inspecting the destination address. This method and the proposed filtering strategy simplifies future changes to the prioritisation of network traffic, and is applicable to both process bus and station bus applications.

Gap analysis of intrusion detection in smart grids

Given the recent emergence of the smart grid and smart grid related technologies, their security is a prime concern. Intrusion detection provides a second line of defense. However, conventional intrusion detection systems (IDSs) are unable to adequately address the unique requirements of the smart grid. This paper presents a gap analysis of contemporary IDSs from a smart grid perspective. This paper highlights the lack of adequate intrusion detection within the smart grid and discusses the limitations of current IDSs approaches. The gap analysis identifies current IDSs as being unsuited to smart grid application without significant changes to address smart grid specific requirements.

Car following model improvement for traffic safety metrics reproduction

Car Following models have a critical role in all microscopic traffic simulation models. Current microscopic simulation models are unable to mimic the unsafe behaviour of drivers as most are based on presumptions about the safe behaviour of drivers. Gipps model is a widely used car following model embedded in different micro-simulation models. This paper examines the Gipps car following model to investigate ways of improving the model for safety studies application. The paper puts forward some suggestions to modify the Gipps model to improve its capabilities to simulate unsafe vehicle movements (vehicles with safety indicators below critical thresholds). The result of the paper is one step forward to facilitate assessing and predicting safety at motorways using microscopic simulation. NGSIM as a rich source of vehicle trajectory data for a motorway is used to extract its relatively risky events. Short following headways and Time To Collision are used to assess critical safety event within traffic flow. The result shows that the modified proposed car following to a certain extent predicts the unsafe trajectories with smaller error values than the generic Gipps model.

Closing the gap between bandit and full-information online optimization : high-probability regret bound

We demonstrate a modification of the algorithm of Dani et al for the online linear optimization problem in the bandit setting, which allows us to achieve an O( \sqrt{T ln T} ) regret bound in high probability against an adaptive adversary, as opposed to the in expectation result against an oblivious adversary of Dani et al. We obtain the same dependence on the dimension as that exhibited by Dani et al. The results of this paper rest firmly on those of Dani et al and the remarkable technique of Auer et al for obtaining high-probability bounds via optimistic estimates. This paper answers an open question: it eliminates the gap between the high-probability bounds obtained in the full-information vs bandit settings.