Importance of mycotoxins in food and feed in India

Various food and feed samples including groundnut seed, maize, sorghum, soyabean cake, groundnut cake, cotton cake, poultry feed, buffalo milk, cow milk and milk powders were collected from farmers' fields, farmer's stores, oil millers storage, traders' storage, retail shops and supermarkets. More than 2000 samples were analysed by ELISA and most of the commodities, with the exception of sorghum seed, contained high levels of aflatoxin. Groundnut cake was one of the major cattle feed ingredients in the peri-urban area of Hyderabad (Andhra Pradesh, India) and >75% of the samples contained >100 µg/kg aflatoxin, leading to a high level of aflatoxin M1, in milk samples. Strategies to reduce aflatoxin levels (especially in groundnut) by management interventions at preharvest, harvest and storage, are discussed.

Closed form approximations for spread options

This article expresses the price of a spread option as the sum of the prices of two compound options. One compound option is to exchange vanilla call options on the two underlying assets and the other is to exchange the corresponding put options. This way we derive a new closed form approximation for the price of a European spread option and a corresponding approximation for each of its price, volatility and correlation hedge ratios. Our approach has many advantages over existing analytical approximations, which have limited validity and an indeterminacy that renders them of little practical use. The compound exchange option approximation for European spread options is then extended to American spread options on assets that pay dividends or incur costs. Simulations quantify the accuracy of our approach; we also present an empirical application to the American crack spread options that are traded on NYMEX. For illustration, we compare our results with those obtained using the approximation attributed to Kirk (1996, Correlation in energy markets. In: V. Kaminski (Ed.), Managing Energy Price Risk, pp. 71–78 (London: Risk Publications)), which is commonly used by traders.

An examination of the complementary volume–volatility information theories

The volume–volatility relationship during the dissemination stages of information flow is examined by analyzing various theories relating volume and volatility as complementary rather than competing models. The mixture of distributions hypothesis, sequential arrival of information hypothesis, the dispersion of beliefs hypothesis, and the noise trader hypothesis all add to the understanding of how volume and volatility interact for different types of futures traders. An integrated picture of the volume–volatility relationship is provided by investigating the dynamic linear and nonlinear associations between volatility and the volume of informed (institutional) and uninformed (the general public) traders. In particular, the trading behavior explanation for the persistence of futures volatility, the effect of the timing of private information arrival, and the response of institutional traders to excess noise trading risk is examined

Cartels and rent sharing at the farmer–trader interface: evidence from Ghana’s tomato sector

Itinerant traders provide an important route for West Africa’s farmers’ to get their perishable produce rapidly to the distant urban markets. But these farmers often accuse the traders of offering “unfairly” low prices while preventing direct access to these markets. Using Ghana’s tomato sector as a case study, we provide the first detailed exploration of the interface between Ghana’s farmers and traders, combining a theoretical model with novel empirical data on daily sales prices and tomato quality. We find that although the prices traders pay farmers are lower than prices in the urban markets, taking into account transport costs, these prices are higher than farmers receive from the local rural market. Our article suggests that policymakers would do better to focus on opening up access to the urban markets rather than on strengthening farmers’ bargaining power with the traders, which restricts market volumes further and harms farmers unable to sell to traders.

Time and the price impact of a trade

We use Hasbrouck's (1991) vector autoregressive model for prices and trades to empirically test and assess the role played by the waiting time between consecutive transactions in the process of price formation. We find that as the time duration between transactions decreases, the price impact of trades, the speed of price adjustment to trade‐related information, and the positive autocorrelation of signed trades all increase. This suggests that times when markets are most active are times when there is an increased presence of informed traders; we interpret such markets as having reduced liquidity.

EU membership of the WTO: international trade disputes and judicial protection of individuals by EU Courts

The European Union (EU) is embedded in a pluralistic legal context because of the EU and its Member States’ treaty memberships and domestic laws. Where EU conduct has implications for both the EU’s international trade relations and the legal position of individual traders, it possibly affects EU and its Member States’ obligations under the law of the World Trade Organization (WTO law) as well as the Union’s own multi-layered constitutional legal order. The present paper analyses the way in which the European Court of Justice (ECJ) accommodates WTO and EU law in the context of international trade disputes triggered by the EU. Given the ECJ’s denial of direct effect of WTO law in principle, the paper focuses on the protection of rights and remedies conferred by EU law. It assesses the implications of the WTO Dispute Settlement Understanding (DSU) – which tolerates the acceptance of retaliatory measures constraining traders’ activities in sectors different from those subject to the original trade dispute (Bananas and Hormones cases) – for the protection of ‘retaliation victims’. The paper concludes that governmental discretion conferred by WTO law has not affected the applicability of EU constitutional law but possibly shapes the actual scope of EU rights and remedies where such discretion is exercised in the EU’s general interest.

Credit and liquidity components of corporate CDS spreads

This paper investigates the role of credit and liquidity factors in explaining corporate CDS price changes during normal and crisis periods. We find that liquidity risk is more important than firm-specific credit risk regardless of market conditions. Moreover, in the period prior to the recent “Great Recession” credit risk plays no role in explaining CDS price changes. The dominance of liquidity effects casts serious doubts on the relevance of CDS price changes as an indicator of default risk dynamics. Our results show how multiple liquidity factors including firm specific and aggregate liquidity proxies as well as an asymmetric information measure are critical determinants of CDS price variations. In particular, the impact of informed traders on the CDS price increases when markets are characterised by higher uncertainty, which supports concerns of insider trading during the crisis.

Price discovery of credit spreads in tranquil and crisis periods

In this paper we investigate the price discovery process in single-name credit spreads obtained from bond, credit default swap (CDS), equity and equity option prices. We analyse short term price discovery by modelling daily changes in credit spreads in the four markets with a vector autoregressive model (VAR). We also look at price discovery in the long run with a vector error correction model (VECM). We find that in the short term the option market clearly leads the other markets in the sub-prime crisis (2007-2009). During the less severe sovereign debt crisis (2009-2012) and the pre-crisis period, options are still important but CDSs become more prominent. In the long run, deviations from the equilibrium relationship with the option market still lead to adjustments in the credit spreads observed or implied from other markets. However, options no longer dominate price discovery in any of the periods considered. Our findings have implications for traders, credit risk managers and financial regulators.

CASCADE: An Agent Based Framework For Modeling The Dynamics Of Smart Electricity Systems

The Complex Adaptive Systems, Cognitive Agents and Distributed Energy (CASCADE) project is developing a framework based on Agent Based Modelling (ABM). The CASCADE Framework can be used both to gain policy and industry relevant insights into the smart grid concept itself and as a platform to design and test distributed ICT solutions for smart grid based business entities. ABM is used to capture the behaviors of diff erent social, economic and technical actors, which may be defi ned at various levels of abstraction. It is applied to understanding their interactions and can be adapted to include learning processes and emergent patterns. CASCADE models ‘prosumer’ agents (i.e., producers and/or consumers of energy) and ‘aggregator’ agents (e.g., traders of energy in both wholesale and retail markets) at various scales, from large generators and Energy Service Companies down to individual people and devices. The CASCADE Framework is formed of three main subdivisions that link models of electricity supply and demand, the electricity market and power fl ow. It can also model the variability of renewable energy generation caused by the weather, which is an important issue for grid balancing and the profi tability of energy suppliers. The development of CASCADE has already yielded some interesting early fi ndings, demonstrating that it is possible for a mediating agent (aggregator) to achieve stable demandfl attening across groups of domestic households fi tted with smart energy control and communication devices, where direct wholesale price signals had previously been found to produce characteristic complex system instability. In another example, it has demonstrated how large changes in supply mix can be caused even by small changes in demand profi le. Ongoing and planned refi nements to the Framework will support investigation of demand response at various scales, the integration of the power sector with transport and heat sectors, novel technology adoption and diffusion work, evolution of new smart grid business models, and complex power grid engineering and market interactions.

Institutional investors: arbitrageurs or rational trend chasers?

This paper studies the relationship between institutional investor holdings and stock misvaluation in the U.S. between 1980 and 2010. I find that institutional investors overweigh overvalued and underweigh undervalued stocks in their portfolio, taking the market portfolio as a benchmark. Cross-sectionally, institutional investors hold more overvalued stocks than undervalued stocks. The time-series studies also show that institutional ownership of overvalued portfolios increases as the portfolios' degree of overvaluation. As an investment strategy, institutional investors' ride of stock misvaluation is neither driven by the fund flows from individual investors into institutions, nor industry-specific. Consistent with the agency problem explanation, investment companies and independent investment advisors have a higher tendency to ride stock misvaluation than other institutions. There is weak evidence that institutional investors make positive profit by riding stock misvaluation. My findings challenge the models that view individual investors as noise traders and disregard the role of institutional investors in stock market misvaluation.

STABILITY ANALYSIS WITH APPLICATIONS OF A TWO-DIMENSIONAL DYNAMICAL SYSTEM ARISING FROM A STOCHASTIC MODEL FOR AN ASSET MARKET

We analyze the stability properties of equilibrium solutions and periodicity of orbits in a two-dimensional dynamical system whose orbits mimic the evolution of the price of an asset and the excess demand for that asset. The construction of the system is grounded upon a heterogeneous interacting agent model for a single risky asset market. An advantage of this construction procedure is that the resulting dynamical system becomes a macroscopic market model which mirrors the market quantities and qualities that would typically be taken into account solely at the microscopic level of modeling. The system`s parameters correspond to: (a) the proportion of speculators in a market; (b) the traders` speculative trend; (c) the degree of heterogeneity of idiosyncratic evaluations of the market agents with respect to the asset`s fundamental value; and (d) the strength of the feedback of the population excess demand on the asset price update increment. This correspondence allows us to employ our results in order to infer plausible causes for the emergence of price and demand fluctuations in a real asset market. The employment of dynamical systems for studying evolution of stochastic models of socio-economic phenomena is quite usual in the area of heterogeneous interacting agent models. However, in the vast majority of the cases present in the literature, these dynamical systems are one-dimensional. Our work is among the few in the area that construct and study analytically a two-dimensional dynamical system and apply it for explanation of socio-economic phenomena.

Den nya kassaregisterlagen

The government appointed in 2004 a special investigator with the objective to investigate the possibility of introducing a new law concerning implementation of obligatory cash registers with certain certification. This resulted in SOU 2005:35 ”Krav på kassaregister - Effektivare utredning av skattebrott” (Proposition 2006/07: 105). Following advice received from the respondents, the government has drafted a bill submitted to parliament in March 2007. Government bill 2006/07: 105 proposals for new law on cash registers, and submitted to parliament 2007th Act (2007:592) on the cash register was adopted by parliament in March that year and came into force on 1 January 2010. Earlier great opportunities for tax cheating has been available by various methods so as to simply not punch in a sale at the checkout, use the training function type, use receipt copies, manipulate register functions on its program level, using alternative programming etc. These opportunities are eliminated in the certified cash registers. Respondent traders believed the most part has not changed the competition or that the change will be relatively small. They also thought it was too early to see any change at this time. A tendency among traders we have asked is that they feel negatively for the costs it imposes, with the new registry and that they are skeptical about the expected impact of the law, among others due to the scarce resources spent on follow-up. The Swedish tax agency is responsible for control and the new systems make it easier for Tax control, but actual physical on-scene control must be performed to detect irregularities.

Kundernas behov i butiksmiljöer : Skillnaderna mellan handlares och kunders uppfattning av kundernas behov i klädbutiker

Konkurrensen inom detaljhandeln blir allt hårdare, både från andra butiker men även från e-handeln, vilket sätter press på fysiska butiker att ha nöjda kunder som fortsätter handla i butiken. Ett tillvägagångssätt för att möta den hårdnande konkurrensen är att ha en butiksmiljö s.k. servicescape som är utformad efter kundernas behov, vilket dock förutsätter att handlarna vet vilka behov sina kunder har. Har handlarna en felaktig uppfattning om kundernas behov föreligger det ett gap som minskar chansen att kunderna blir nöjda och därmed butikens konkurrenskraft. En avgränsning gjordes till klädbutiker, då klädbutiker är bland de butikstyper som är mest konkurrensutsatt. Syftet med uppsatsen var att kartlägga hur kundernas behov överensstämmer eller skiljer sig från handlarnas uppfattning om deras behov. För att uppfylla syftet tillämpades en kvalitativ metod men med en statistisk bearbetning dvs. en kvantitativ bearbetning då resultatet redovisades med hjälp av frekvenser och värden på en skala. Datainsamlingsverktyget som användes var enkäter och utformades efter de tio faktorerna som sammanställdes i den teoretiska referensramen. Enkäterna delades ut till både kunder och handlare i Borlänges stadskärna och Faluns stadskärna. Resultatet av uppsatsen visade att det för faktorerna ljus (4,2), trängsel (4.5) (4.6), Ljud (4.7), toaletter (4.9), (4.10) finns en skillnad ett s.k. gap mellan handlarnas uppfattning om kundernas behov och vad kundernas behov egentligen är. Det framkom även att handlarna ansåg att kunderna har större behov av att faktorerna rent & städat (4.3), (4.4) in & utgångar (4.8) är tillfredsställande än vad kunderna egentligen har. Det framkom precis som behandlades i den teoretiska referensramen att kundernas behov tenderar att variera utifrån deras demografiska faktorer ålder och kön. Om handlarna har en låg, medel eller hög prisnivå påverkade även det hur viktigt det är för kunderna att faktorerna är tillfredsställande. Slutsatsen som författarna identifierade var att det föreligger ett gap mellan handlarnas uppfattning om kundernas behov och vad kunderna anser att deras behov är gällande flera av faktorerna. Detta är dock något som kunderna säger vilket inte behöver stämma överrens med hur de verkligen tycker. Det är dock svårt att urskilja något mönster gällande gapen utan det är nästan enbart tendenser man kan urskilja, vilket gör att varje faktor bör analyseras individuellt.

Hydropower Energy Simulation Using Mike 11 Model; A Case Study In South Germany's Small Run-Of-River Hydropower Plants

Renewable energy production is a basic supplement to stabilize rapidly increasing global energy demand and skyrocketing energy price as well as to balance the fluctuation of supply from non-renewable energy sources at electrical grid hubs. The European energy traders, government and private company energy providers and other stakeholders have been, since recently, a major beneficiary, customer and clients of Hydropower simulation solutions. The relationship between rainfall-runoff model outputs and energy productions of hydropower plants has not been clearly studied. In this research, association of rainfall, catchment characteristics, river network and runoff with energy production of a particular hydropower station is examined. The essence of this study is to justify the correspondence between runoff extracted from calibrated catchment and energy production of hydropower plant located at a catchment outlet; to employ a unique technique to convert runoff to energy based on statistical and graphical trend analysis of the two, and to provide environment for energy forecast. For rainfall-runoff model setup and calibration, MIKE 11 NAM model is applied, meanwhile MIKE 11 SO model is used to track, adopt and set a control strategy at hydropower location for runoff-energy correlation. The model is tested at two selected micro run-of-river hydropower plants located in South Germany. Two consecutive calibration is compromised to test the model; one for rainfall-runoff model and other for energy simulation. Calibration results and supporting verification plots of two case studies indicated that simulated discharge and energy production is comparable with the measured discharge and energy production respectively.

Um modelo de competição baseada em tempo nos mercados financeiros

O objetivo deste trabalho é modelar o comportamento estratégico dos indivíduos diante de um choque estocástico que desloca o preço de determinado ativo financeiro do seu equilíbrio inicial. Investiga-se o caminho do preço de mercado em direção ao novo equilíbrio, conduzido pelas sucessivas negociações dos agentes em busca de oportunidades de obter lucros imediatos. Os operadores, que por suposição possuem funções de utilidade avessas ao risco, devem escolher a quantidade ótima transacionada e quanto devem aguardar para executar as suas ordens, tendo em vista a diminuição da volatilidade do preço do ativo à medida que as transações se sucedem após o choque. Procura-se demonstrar que os operadores que aceitam incorrer em riscos mais elevados negociam com maior frequência e em volumes e velocidades maiores, usufruindo lucros esperados mais altos que os demais.