The pulmonary embolism rule-out criteria (PERC) rule does not safely exclude pulmonary embolism.

Background: The Pulmonary Embolism Rule-out Criteria (PERC) rule is a clinical diagnostic rule designed to exclude pulmonary embolism (PE) without further testing. We sought to externally validate the diagnostic performance of the PERC rule alone and combined with clinical probability assessment based on the revised Geneva score. Methods: The PERC rule was applied retrospectively to consecutive patients who presented with a clinical suspicion of PE to six emergency departments, and who were enrolled in a randomized trial of PE diagnosis. Patients who met all eight PERC criteria [PERC(-)] were considered to be at a very low risk for PE. We calculated the prevalence of PE among PERC(-) patients according to their clinical pretest probability of PE. We estimated the negative likelihood ratio of the PERC rule to predict PE. Results: Among 1675 patients, the prevalence of PE was 21.3%. Overall, 13.2% of patients were PERC(-). The prevalence of PE was 5.4% [95% confidence interval (CI): 3.1-9.3%] among PERC(-) patients overall and 6.4% (95% CI: 3.7-10.8%) among those PERC(-) patients with a low clinical pretest probability of PE. The PERC rule had a negative likelihood ratio of 0.70 (95% CI: 0.67-0.73) for predicting PE overall, and 0.63 (95% CI: 0.38-1.06) in low-risk patients. Conclusions: Our results suggest that the PERC rule alone or even when combined with the revised Geneva score cannot safely identify very low risk patients in whom PE can be ruled out without additional testing, at least in populations with a relatively high prevalence of PE.

Control of Concrete Deterioration Due to Trace Compounds in Deicers, HR-299, 1992

This report describes the research completed under the research contract entitled "Development of a Conductometric Test for Frost Resistance of Concrete" undertaken for the Iowa Highway Research Board. The objective of the project was to develop a test method which can be reasonably and rapidly performed in the laboratory and in the field to predict, with a high degree of certainty, the behavior of concrete subjected to the action of alternate freezing and thawing. The significance of the results obtained, and recommendations for use and the continued development of conductometric testing are presented in this final report. In this project the conductometric evaluation of concrete durability was explored with three different test methods. The test methods and procedures for each type of test as well as presentation of the results obtained and their significance are included in the body of the report. The three test methods were: (1) Conductometric evaluation of the resistance of concrete to rapid freezing and thawing, (2) Conductometric evaluation of the resistance of concrete to natural freezing and thawing, and (3) Conductometric evaluation of the pore size distribution of concrete and its correlation to concrete durability. The report also includes recommendations for the continued development of these test methods.

Effects of Deicing Salt Trace Compounds on Deterioration of Portland Cement Concrete, HR-271, 1987

A study was made of the detrimental effects of trace amounts of calcium sulfate (occurring naturally in halite deposits used for deicing) on portland cement concrete pavements. It was found that sulfate introduced as gypsum with sodium chloride in deicing brines can have detrimental effects on portland cement mortar. Concentrations of sulfate as low as 0.5% of the solute rendered the brine destructive. Conditions of brine application were critical to specimen durability. The mechanisms of deterioration were found to be due to pore filling resulting from compound formation and deposition. A field evaluation of deteriorating joints suggests that the sulfate phenomena demonstrated in the laboratory also operates in the field. A preliminary evaluation was made of remedies: limits on sulfates, fly ash admixtures, treatment of existing pavement, and salt treatments. This report gives details of the research objectives, experimental design, field testing, and possible solutions. Recommendations for further study are presented.

A generalization of Cope's rule

For numerous shelly invertebrates, Cope's rule is shown in this paper to merely describe the particular case where volume increase is strictly coupled with diameter or length. Allometries, which are frequently observed in the evolution of the shells' geometry, mean that their size, volume and surface can vary independently. The consequences of this can be summarized as follows : 1) volume increase not coupled with an increase of diameter or length of the organisms generates increasing involution and/or lateral width in the shell of cephalopods, foraminifera and radiolarians; 2) an increase of the biomineralizing surface, not coupled with volume increase, generates increasing apparent complexity in the sutures and growth lines in ammonites, and an increase in the complexity and number of chambers in foraminifera.

Control of Concrete Deterioration Due to Trace Compounds in Deicers, HR-299 Phase I, 1988

This report presents the results of research on the influence of trace compounds from rock salt deicers on portland cement mortar and concrete. An evaluation of the deicers in stock throughout the state showed that about ninety-five percent contained enough sulfate to cause accelerated deterioration of concrete. Of the impurities found in rock salts, sulfate compounds of calcium and magnesium were found to be equally deleterious. Magnesium chloride was found to be innocuous. Introduction of fly ash eliminated the damage to portland cement mortar caused by sulfates. When used with frost resistant Alden aggregate in fly ash concrete and exposed to a variety of deicer brine compositions, the concrete did not deteriorate after exposure. With the exception of a high calcium brine, the behavior of the frost-prone Garrison aggregate was independent of deicer treatment; the high calcium brine reduced frost damage with this aggregate. Two approaches to reducing sulfate deterioration from deicers are suggested as (1) limiting the amount of sulfate to about 0.28 percent, and (2) making concrete sulfate-resistant by using fly ash. Techniques for making existing concrete deicer-sulfate-resistant are essential to a practical solution.

Control of Concrete Deterioration Due to Trace Compounds in Deicers, Phase II, HR-299, 1989

This report presents results of research on ways to reduce the detrimental effects of sulfate-tainted rock salt deicers on portland cement concrete used for highway pavements. Repetitious experiments on the influence of fly ash on the mortar phase of concrete showed significant improvement in resistance to deicing brines is possible. Fifteen to twenty percent by weight of fly ash replacement for portland cement was found to provide optimum improvement. Fly ashes from five sources were evaluated and all were found to be equally beneficial. Preliminary results indicate the type of coarse aggregate also plays an important role in terms of concrete resistance to freeze-thaw in deicing brines. This was particularly true for a porous ferroan dolomite thought to be capable of reaction with the brine. In this case fly ash improved the concrete, but not enough for satisfactory performance. An intermediate response was with a porous limestone where undesirable results were observed without fly ash and adequate performance was realized when 15% fly ash was added. The best combination for making deicer-resistant concrete was found to be with a non-porous limestone. Performance in brines was found to be adequate without fly ash, but better when fly ash was included. Consideration was given to treating existing hardened concrete made with poor aggregate and no fly ash to extend pavement life in the presence of deicers, particularly at joints. Sodium silicate was found to improve freeze-thaw resistance of mortar and is a good candidate for field usage because of its low cost and ease of handling.

La pertinence en science forensique. Une (en)quête épistémologique et empirique

A criminal investigation requires to search and to interpret vestiges of a criminal act that happened in a past time. The forensic investigator arises in this context as a critical reader of the investigation scene, in search of physical traces that should enable her to tell a story of the offence/crime which allegedly occurred. The challenge of any investigator is to detect and recognise relevant physical traces in order to provide forensic clues for investigation and intelligence purposes. Inspired by this obser- vation, the current research focuses on the following questions : What is a relevant physical trace? And, how does the forensic investigator know she is facing one ? The interest of such questions is to provide a definition of a dimension often used in forensic science but never studied in its implications and operations. This doctoral research investigates scientific paths that are not often explored in forensic science, by using semiotic and sociological tools combined with statistical data analysis. The results are shown following a semiotic path, strongly influenced by Peir- ce's studies, and a second track, called empirical, where investigations data were analysed and forensic investigators interviewed about their work practices in the field. By the semiotic track, a macroscopic view is given of a signification process running from the discove- red physical trace at the scene to what is evaluated as being relevant for the investigator. The physical trace is perceived in the form of several signs, whose meaning is culturally codified. The reasoning should consist of three main steps : 1- What kind of source does the discovered physical trace refer to ? 2- What cause/activity is at the origin of this source in the specific context of the case ? 3- What story can be told from these observations ? The stage 3 requires to reason in creating hypotheses that should explain the presence of the discovered trace coming from an activity ; the specific activity that is related to the investigated case. To validate this assumption, it would depend on their ability to respond to a rule of relevancy. The last step is the symbolisation of the relevancy. The rule would consist of two points : the recognition of the factual/circumstantial relevancy (Is the link between the trace and the case recognised with the formulated hypothesis ? ) and appropriate relevancy (What investment is required to collect and analyse the discovered trace considering the expected outcome at the investigation/intelligence level?). This process of meaning is based on observations and a conjectural reasoning subject to many influences. In this study, relevancy in forensic science is presented as a conventional dimension that is symbolised and conditioned by the context, the forensic investigator's practice and her workplace environment (culture of the place). In short, the current research states relevancy results of the interactions between parameters from situational, structural (or organisational) and individual orders. The detection, collection and analysis of relevant physical traces at scenes depends on the knowledge and culture mastered by the forensic investigator. In the study of the relation relevant trace-forensic investigator, this research introduces the KEE model as a conceptual map that illustrates three major areas of forensic knowledge and culture acquisition, involved in the research and evaluation of the relevant physical trace. Through the analysis of the investigation data and interviews, the relationship between those three parameters and the relevancy was highlighted. K, for knowing, embodies a rela- tionship to the immediate knowledge allowing to give an overview of the reality at a specific moment ; an important point since relevancy is signified in a context. E, for education, is considered through its relationship with relevancy via a culture that tends to become institutionalised ; it represents the theoretical knowledge. As for the parameter E, for experience, it exists in its relation to relevancy in the adjustments of the strategies of intervention (i.e a practical knowledge) of each practitioner having modulated her work in the light of success and setbacks case after case. The two E parameters constitute the library resources for the semiotic recognition process and the K parameter ensures the contextualisation required to set up the reasoning and to formulate explanatory hypotheses for the discovered physical traces, questioned in their relevancy. This research demonstrates that the relevancy is not absolute. It is temporal and contextual; it is a conventional and relative dimension that must be discussed. This is where the whole issue of the meaning of what is relevant to each stakeholder of the investigation process rests. By proposing a step by step approach to the meaning process from the physical trace to the forensic clue, this study aims to provide a more advanced understanding of the reasoning and its operation, in order to streng- then forensic investigators' training. This doctoral research presents a set of tools critical to both pedagogical and practical aspects for crime scene management while identifying key-influences with individual, structural and situational dimensions. - Une enquête criminelle consiste à rechercher et à faire parler les vestiges d'un acte incriminé passé. L'investigateur forensique se pose dans ce cadre comme un lecteur critique des lieux à la recherche de traces devant lui permettre de former son récit, soit l'histoire du délit/crime censé s'être produit. Le challenge de tout investigateur est de pouvoir détecter et reconnaître les traces dites pertinentes pour fournir des indices forensiques à buts d'enquête et de renseignement. Inspirée par un tel constat, la présente recherche pose au coeur de ses réflexions les questions suivantes : Qu'est-ce qu'une trace pertinente ? Et, comment fait le forensicien pour déterminer qu'il y fait face ? L'intérêt de tels questionnements se comprend dans la volonté de définir une dimension souvent utili- sée en science forensique, mais encore jamais étudiée dans ses implications et fonctionnements. Cette recherche se lance dans des voies d'étude encore peu explorées en usant d'outils sémiotiques et des pratiques d'enquêtes sociologiques combinés à des traitements statistiques de données. Les résultats sont représentés en suivant une piste sémiotique fortement influencée par les écrits de Peirce et une seconde piste dite empirique où des données d'interventions ont été analysées et des investigateurs forensiques interviewés sur leurs pratiques de travail sur le terrain. Par la piste sémiotique, une vision macroscopique du processus de signification de la trace en élément pertinent est représentée. La trace est perçue sous la forme de plusieurs signes dont la signification est codifiée culturellement. Le raisonnement se formaliserait en trois principales étapes : 1- Quel type de source évoque la trace détectée? 2- Quelle cause/activité est à l'origine de cette source dans le contexte précis du cas ? 3- Quelle histoire peut être racontée à partir de ces observations ? Cette dernière étape consiste à raisonner en créant des hypothèses devant expliquer la présence de la trace détectée suite à une activité posée comme étant en lien avec le cas investigué. Pour valider ces hypothèses, cela dépendrait de leur capacité à répondre à une règle, celle de la pertinence. Cette dernière étape consiste en la symbolisation de la pertinence. La règle se composerait de deux points : la reconnaissance de la pertinence factuelle (le lien entre la trace et le cas est-il reconnu dans l'hypothèse fournie?) et la pertinence appropriée (quel est l'investissement à fournir dans la collecte et l'exploitation de la trace pour le bénéfice attendu au niveau de l'investigation/renseignement?). Tout ce processus de signification se base sur des observations et un raisonnement conjectural soumis à de nombreuses influences. Dans cette étude, la pertinence en science forensique se formalise sous les traits d'une dimension conventionnelle, symbolisée, conditionnée par le contexte, la pratique de l'investigateur forensique et la culture du milieu ; en somme cette recherche avance que la pertinence est le fruit d'une interaction entre des paramètres d'ordre situationnel, structurel (ou organisationnel) et individuel. Garantir la détection, la collecte et l'exploitation des traces pertinentes sur les lieux dépend de la connaissance et d'une culture maîtrisées par le forensicien. Dans l'étude du rapport trace pertinente-investigateur forensique, la présente recherche pose le modèle SFE comme une carte conceptuelle illustrant trois grands axes d'acquisition de la connaissance et de la culture forensiques intervenant dans la recherche et l'évaluation de la trace pertinente. Par l'analyse des données d'in- terventions et des entretiens, le rapport entre ces trois paramètres et la pertinence a été mis en évidence. S, pour savoir, incarne un rapport à la connaissance immédiate pour se faire une représentation d'une réalité à un instant donné, un point important pour une pertinence qui se comprend dans un contexte. F, pour formation, se conçoit dans son rapport à la pertinence via cette culture qui tend à s'institutionnaliser (soit une connaissance théorique). Quant au paramètre E, pour expérience, il se comprend dans son rapport à la pertinence dans cet ajustement des stratégies d'intervention (soit une connaissance pratique) de chaque praticien ayant modulé leur travail au regard des succès et échecs enregistrés cas après cas. F et E formeraient la bibliothèque de ressources permettant le processus de reconnaissance sémiotique et S assurerait la contextualisation nécessaire pour poser le raisonnement et formuler les hypothèses explicatives pour les traces détectées et questionnées dans leur pertinence. Ce travail démontre que la pertinence n'est pas absolue. Elle est temporelle et contextuelle, c'est une dimension conventionnelle relative et interprétée qui se doit d'être discutée. C'est là que repose toute la problématique de la signification de ce qui est pertinent pour chaque participant du processus d'investigation. En proposant une lecture par étapes du processus de signification depuis la trace à l'indice, l'étude vise à offrir une compréhension plus poussée du raisonnement et de son fonctionnement pour renforcer la formation des intervenants forensiques. Cette recherche présente ainsi un ensemble d'outils critiques à portée tant pédagogiques que pratiques pour la gestion des lieux tout en identifiant des influences-clé jouées par des dimensions individuelles, structurelles et situationnelles.

Development and validation of a clinical prediction rule for chest wall syndrome in primary care.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Chest wall syndrome (CWS), the main cause of chest pain in primary care practice, is most often an exclusion diagnosis. We developed and evaluated a clinical prediction rule for CWS. METHODS: Data from a multicenter clinical cohort of consecutive primary care patients with chest pain were used (59 general practitioners, 672 patients). A final diagnosis was determined after 12 months of follow-up. We used the literature and bivariate analyses to identify candidate predictors, and multivariate logistic regression was used to develop a clinical prediction rule for CWS. We used data from a German cohort (n = 1212) for external validation. RESULTS: From bivariate analyses, we identified six variables characterizing CWS: thoracic pain (neither retrosternal nor oppressive), stabbing, well localized pain, no history of coronary heart disease, absence of general practitioner's concern, and pain reproducible by palpation. This last variable accounted for 2 points in the clinical prediction rule, the others for 1 point each; the total score ranged from 0 to 7 points. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was 0.80 (95% confidence interval 0.76-0.83) in the derivation cohort (specificity: 89%; sensitivity: 45%; cut-off set at 6 points). Among all patients presenting CWS (n = 284), 71% (n = 201) had a pain reproducible by palpation and 45% (n = 127) were correctly diagnosed. For a subset (n = 43) of these correctly classified CWS patients, 65 additional investigations (30 electrocardiograms, 16 thoracic radiographies, 10 laboratory tests, eight specialist referrals, one thoracic computed tomography) had been performed to achieve diagnosis. False positives (n = 41) included three patients with stable angina (1.8% of all positives). External validation revealed the ROC curve to be 0.76 (95% confidence interval 0.73-0.79) with a sensitivity of 22% and a specificity of 93%. CONCLUSIONS: This CWS score offers a useful complement to the usual CWS exclusion diagnosing process. Indeed, for the 127 patients presenting CWS and correctly classified by our clinical prediction rule, 65 additional tests and exams could have been avoided. However, the reproduction of chest pain by palpation, the most important characteristic to diagnose CWS, is not pathognomonic.

Atmospheric deposition and migration of artificial radionuclides in Alpine soils (Val Piora, Switzerland) compared to the distribution of selected major and trace elements.

Artificial radionuclides ((137)Cs, (90)Sr, Pu, and (241)Am) are present in soils because of Nuclear Weapon Tests and accidents in nuclear facilities. Their distribution in soil depth varies according to soil characteristics, their own chemical properties, and their deposition history. For this project, we studied the atmospheric deposition of (137)Cs, (90)Sr, Pu, (241)Am, (210)Pb, and stable Pb. We compared the distribution of these elements in soil profiles from different soil types from an alpine Valley (Val Piora, Switzerland) with the distribution of selected major and trace elements in the same soils. Our goals were to explain the distribution of the radioisotopes as a function of soil parameters and to identify stable elements with analogous behaviors. We found that Pu and (241)Am are relatively immobile and accumulate in the topsoil. In all soils, (90)Sr is more mobile and shows some accumulations at depth into Fe-Al rich horizons. This behavior is also observed for Cu and Zn, indicating that these elements may be used as chemical analogues for the migration of (90)Sr into the soil.