Short-term electricity price forecasting using wavelet and SVM techniques

In deregulated electricity market, modeling and forecasting the spot price present a number of challenges. By applying wavelet and support vector machine techniques, a new time series model for short term electricity price forecasting has been developed in this paper. The model employs both historical price and other important information, such as load capacity and weather (temperature), to forecast the price of one or more time steps ahead. The developed model has been evaluated with the actual data from Australian National Electricity Market. The simulation results demonstrated that the forecast model is capable of forecasting the electricity price with a reasonable forecasting accuracy.

Energy forward price prediction with a hybrid adaptive model

This paper presents a forecasting technique for forward electricity/gas prices, one day ahead. This technique combines a Kalman filter (KF) and a generalised autoregressive conditional heteroschedasticity (GARCH) model (often used in financial forecasting). The GARCH model is used to compute next value of a time series. The KF updates parameters of the GARCH model when the new observation is available. This technique is applied to real data from the UK energy markets to evaluate its performance. The results show that the forecasting accuracy is improved significantly by using this hybrid model. The methodology can be also applied to forecasting market clearing prices and electricity/gas loads.

Stock price distributions and news:evidence from index options

We estimate the shape of the distribution of stock prices using data from options on the underlying asset, and test whether this distribution is distorted in a systematic manner each time a particular news event occurs. In particular we look at the response of the FTSE100 index to market wide announcements of key macroeconomic indicators and policy variables. We show that the whole distribution of stock prices can be distorted on an event day. The shift in distributional shape happens whether the event is characterized as an announcement occurrence or as a measured surprise. We find that larger surprises have proportionately greater impact, and that higher moments are more sensitive to events however characterised.

Techniques to improve forecasting models: applications to energy demand and price

This thesis is a study of three techniques to improve performance of some standard fore-casting models, application to the energy demand and prices. We focus on forecasting demand and price one-day ahead. First, the wavelet transform was used as a pre-processing procedure with two approaches: multicomponent-forecasts and direct-forecasts. We have empirically compared these approaches and found that the former consistently outperformed the latter. Second, adaptive models were introduced to continuously update model parameters in the testing period by combining ?lters with standard forecasting methods. Among these adaptive models, the adaptive LR-GARCH model was proposed for the fi?rst time in the thesis. Third, with regard to noise distributions of the dependent variables in the forecasting models, we used either Gaussian or Student-t distributions. This thesis proposed a novel algorithm to infer parameters of Student-t noise models. The method is an extension of earlier work for models that are linear in parameters to the non-linear multilayer perceptron. Therefore, the proposed method broadens the range of models that can use a Student-t noise distribution. Because these techniques cannot stand alone, they must be combined with prediction models to improve their performance. We combined these techniques with some standard forecasting models: multilayer perceptron, radial basis functions, linear regression, and linear regression with GARCH. These techniques and forecasting models were applied to two datasets from the UK energy markets: daily electricity demand (which is stationary) and gas forward prices (non-stationary). The results showed that these techniques provided good improvement to prediction performance.

Short-term electricity demand and gas price forecasts using wavelet transforms and adaptive models

This paper presents some forecasting techniques for energy demand and price prediction, one day ahead. These techniques combine wavelet transform (WT) with fixed and adaptive machine learning/time series models (multi-layer perceptron (MLP), radial basis functions, linear regression, or GARCH). To create an adaptive model, we use an extended Kalman filter or particle filter to update the parameters continuously on the test set. The adaptive GARCH model is a new contribution, broadening the applicability of GARCH methods. We empirically compared two approaches of combining the WT with prediction models: multicomponent forecasts and direct forecasts. These techniques are applied to large sets of real data (both stationary and non-stationary) from the UK energy markets, so as to provide comparative results that are statistically stronger than those previously reported. The results showed that the forecasting accuracy is significantly improved by using the WT and adaptive models. The best models on the electricity demand/gas price forecast are the adaptive MLP/GARCH with the multicomponent forecast; their MSEs are 0.02314 and 0.15384 respectively.

Accommodating energy price volatility in life cycle cost analysis of asphalt pavements

Energy price is related to more than half of the total life cycle cost of asphalt pavements. Furthermore, the fluctuation related to price of energy has been much higher than the general inflation and interest rate. This makes the energy price inflation an important variable that should be addressed when performing life cycle cost (LCC) studies re- garding asphalt pavements. The present value of future costs is highly sensitive to the selected discount rate. Therefore, the choice of the discount rate is the most critical element in LCC analysis during the life time of a project. The objective of the paper is to present a discount rate for asphalt pavement projects as a function of interest rate, general inflation and energy price inflation. The discount rate is defined based on the portion of the energy related costs during the life time of the pavement. Consequently, it can reflect the financial risks related to the energy price in asphalt pavement projects. It is suggested that a discount rate sensitivity analysis for asphalt pavements in Sweden should range between –20 and 30%.

Image enhancement of real-time television to benefit the visually impaired

Purpose: To examine the use of real-time, generic edge detection, image processing techniques to enhance the television viewing of the visually impaired. Design: Prospective, clinical experimental study. Method: One hundred and two sequential visually impaired (average age 73.8 ± 14.8 years; 59% female) in a single center optimized a dynamic television image with respect to edge detection filter (Prewitt, Sobel, or the two combined), color (red, green, blue, or white), and intensity (one to 15 times) of the overlaid edges. They then rated the original television footage compared with a black-and-white image displaying the edges detected and the original television image with the detected edges overlaid in the chosen color and at the intensity selected. Footage of news, an advertisement, and the end of program credits were subjectively assessed in a random order. Results: A Prewitt filter was preferred (44%) compared with the Sobel filter (27%) or a combination of the two (28%). Green and white were equally popular for displaying the detected edges (32%), with blue (22%) and red (14%) less so. The average preferred edge intensity was 3.5 ± 1.7 times. The image-enhanced television was significantly preferred to the original (P < .001), which in turn was preferred to viewing the detected edges alone (P < .001) for each of the footage clips. Preference was not dependent on the condition causing visual impairment. Seventy percent were definitely willing to buy a set-top box that could achieve these effects for a reasonable price. Conclusions: Simple generic edge detection image enhancement options can be performed on television in real-time and significantly enhance the viewing of the visually impaired. © 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Profit, productivity and price performance changes in the water and sewerage industry:an empirical application for England and Wales

This paper aims to analyse the impact of regulation in the financial performance of the Water and Sewerage companies (WaSCs) in England and Wales over the period 1991–2008. In doing so, a panel index approach is applied across WaSCs over time to decompose unit-specific index number-based profitability growth as a function of the profitability, productivity and price performance growth achieved by benchmark firms, and the catch up to the benchmark firm achieved by less productive firms. The results indicated that after 2000 there is a steady decline in average price performance, while productivity improves resulting in a relatively stable economic profitability. It is suggested that the English and Welsh water regulator is now more focused on passing productivity benefits to consumers, and maintaining stable profitability than it was in earlier regulatory periods. This technique is of great interest for regulators to evaluate the effectiveness of regulation and companies to identify the determinants of profit change and improve future performance, even if sample sizes are limited.

Price transmission in the EU wholesale petroleum markets

This article employs nonlinear smooth transition models to analyze the relationship between upstream and midstream prices of petroleum products. We test for the presence of nonlinearities in price linkages using both weekly series constructed using official EU procedures and also daily industry series applied for the first time. Our results show that the estimated shape of the transition function and equilibrium reversion path depend on the frequency of the price dataset. Our analysis of the crude oil to wholesale price transmission provides evidence of nonlinearities when prices are observed with daily frequency. The nature of the nonlinearities provides evidence in support of the existence of menu costs or, more generally, frictions in the markets rather than supply adjustment costs. This result differs from that found for the U.S. petroleum markets. © 2012 American Statistical Association.

Optimization of Advertising Resources over Time: A Strategic Analysis

AMS subject classification: 90B60, 90B50, 90A80.

Price-cap regulation in the English and Welsh water industry:a proposal for measuring productivity performance

Privately owned water utilities typically operate under a regulated monopoly regime. Price-cap regulation has been introduced as a means to enhance efficiency and innovation. The main objective of this paper is to propose a methodology for measuring productivity change across companies and over time when the sample size is limited. An empirical application is developed for the UK water and sewerage companies (WaSCs) for the period 1991-2008. A panel index approach is applied to decompose and derive unit-specific productivity growth as a function of the productivity growth achieved by benchmark firms, and the catch-up to the benchmark firm achieved by less productive firms. The results indicated that significant gains in productivity occurred after 2000, when the regulator set tighter reviews. However, the average WaSC still must improve towards the benchmarking firm by 2.69% over a period of five years to achieve comparable performance. This study is relevant to regulators who are interested in developing comparative performance measurement when the number of water companies that can be evaluated is limited. Moreover, setting an appropriate X factor is essential to improve the efficiency of water companies and this study helps to achieve this challenge.

Virtuális árhatás a Budapesti Értéktőzsdén = Virtual price effects on the Budapest stock exchange

Az árhatásfüggvények azt mutatják meg, hogy egy adott értékű megbízás mekkora relatív árváltozást okoz. Az árhatásfüggvény ismerete a piaci szereplők számára fontos szerepet játszik a jövőben benyújtandó ajánlataikhoz kapcsolódó árhatás előrejelzésében, a kereskedés árváltozásból eredő többletköltségének becslésében, illetve az optimális kereskedési algoritmus kialakításában. Az általunk kidolgozott módszer révén a piaci szereplők a teljes ajánlati könyv ismerete nélkül egyszerűen és gyorsan tudnak virtuális árhatásfüggvényt meghatározni, ugyanis bemutatjuk az árhatásfüggvény és a likviditási mértékek kapcsolatát, valamint azt, hogy miként lehet a Budapesti Likviditási Mérték (BLM) idősorából ár ha tás függ vényt becsülni. A kidolgozott módszertant az OTP-részvény idősorán szemléltetjük, és a részvény BLM-adatsorából a 2007. január 1-je és 2011. június 3-a közötti időszakra virtuális árhatás függvényt becsülünk. Empirikus elemzésünk során az árhatás függ vény időbeli alakulásának és alapvető statisztikai tulajdonságainak vizsgálatát végezzük el, ami révén képet kaphatunk a likviditás hiányában fellépő tranzakciós költségek múltbeli viselkedéséről. Az így kapott információk például a dinamikus portfólióoptimalizálás során lehetnek a kereskedők segítségére. / === / Price-effect equations show what relative price change a commission of a given value will have. Knowledge of price-effect equations plays an important part in enabling market players to predict the price effect of their future commissions and to develop an optimal trading algorithm. The method devised by the authors allows a virtual price-effect equation to be defined simply and rapidly without knowledge of the whole offer book, by presenting the relation between the price-effect equation and degree of liquidity, and how to estimate the price-effect equation from the time line of the Budapest Liquidity Measure (BLM). The methodology is shown using the time line for OTP shares and the virtual price-effect equation estimated for the 1 January 2007 to 3 June 2011 period from the shares BML data set. During the empirical analysis the authors conducted an examination of the tendency of the price-effect equation over time and for its basic statistical attributes, to yield a picture of the past behaviour of the transaction costs arising in the absence of liquidity. The information obtained may, for instance, help traders in dynamic portfolio optimization.

Az extrém ármozgások statisztikai jellemzői a magyar áramtőzsdén (The statistical characteristics of extreme price movements in the Hungarian power exchange)

2010. július 20-án megkezdte működését a magyar áramtőzsde, a HUPX. 2010. augusztus 16-án az első napokban tapasztalt 45-60 euró megawattórás ár helyett egyes órákban 2999 eurós árral szembesültek a piaci szereplők. A kiemelkedően magas árak megjelenése nem szokatlan az áramtőzsdéken a nemzetközi tapasztalatok szerint, sőt a kutatások kiemelten foglalkoznak az ún. ártüskék okainak felkutatásával, valamint megjelenésük kvantitatív és kvalitatív elemzésével. A cikkben a szerző bemutatja, milyen eredmények születtek a kiugró árak statisztikai vizsgálatai során a szakirodalomban, illetve azok következtetései hogyan állják meg a helyüket a magyar árak idősorát figyelembe véve. A szerző bemutat egy modellkeretet, amely a villamosenergia-árak viselkedését a hét órái szerint periodikusan váltakozó paraméterű eloszlásokkal írja le. A magyar áramtőzsde rövid története sajnos nem teszi lehetővé, hogy a hét minden órájára külön áreloszlást illeszthessünk. A szerző ezért a hét óráit két csoportba sorolja az ár eloszlásának jellege alapján: az ártüskék megjelenése szempontjából kockázatos és kevésbé kockázatos órákba. Ezután a HUPX-árak leírására felépít egy determinisztikus, kétállapotú rezsimváltó modellt, amellyel azonosítani lehet a kockázatos és kevésbé kockázatos órákat, valamint képet kaphatunk az extrém ármozgások jellegéről. / === / On 20th July, 2010 the Hungarian Power Exchange, the HUPX started its operation. On 16th August in certain hours the markets participants faced € 2,999 price instead of in the first days experienced 45-60 euros/mwh. According to the international experiences the appearance of the extremely high prices hasn’t been unusual in the power exchanges, the researches have focused exploring the causes of the so-called spikes and quantitative and qualitative analysis of those appearances. In this article the author describes what results were determined on statistical studies of outstanding prices in the literature, and how their conclusions stand up into account the time series of the Hungarian prices. The author presents a model framework which describes the behavior of electricity prices in the seven hours of periodically varying parameters. Unfortunately the brief history of the Hungarian Power Exchange does not allow to suit specific prices for each hour of week. Therefore the author classifies the hours of the week in the two groups based on the nature of price dispersion: according to the appearance of spikes to risky and less risky classes. Then for describing the HUPX prices the author builds a deterministic two-state, regime-changing model, which can be identified the risky and less risky hours, and to get a picture of the nature of extreme price movements.

Preferences of Hungarian consumers for quality, access and price attributes of health care services — result of a discrete choice experiment

In 2010, a household survey was carried out in Hungary among 1037 respondents to study consumer preferences and willingness to pay for health care services. In this paper, we use the data from the discrete choice experiments included in the survey, to elicit the preferences of health care consumers about the choice of health care providers. Regression analysis is used to estimate the effect of the improvement of service attributes (quality, access, and price) on patients’ choice, as well as the differences among the socio-demographic groups. We also estimate the marginal willingness to pay for the improvement in attribute levels by calculating marginal rates of substitution. The results show that respondents from a village or the capital, with low education and bad health status are more driven by the changes in the price attribute when choosing between health care providers. Respondents value the good skills and reputation of the physician and the attitude of the personnel most, followed by modern equipment and maintenance of the office/hospital. Access attributes (travelling and waiting time) are less important. The method of discrete choice experiment is useful to reveal patients’ preferences, and might support the development of an evidence-based and sustainable health policy on patient payments.

Az optimális ár meghatározásának módszere az értékteremtés szolgálatában (The method of determining the optimal price for the service of value creation)

A tanulmány a mikroökonómia eszközrendszerét és a hazai gépjárműpiac 2013-as adatait segítségül hívva egy új módszert mutat be az ármeghatározás területén. A kutatás központi kérdése az, hogy hol található az a pont, amikor a fogyasztó elégedett a kínált minőséggel és árral – lehetőleg megfelelő időben – és a vállalat is elégedett a megszerzett profittal. A tanulmányban tehát az ármeghatározás során központi szerepet játszik a minőség és az idő, mint értékteremtő funkció. Az elemzés egyik legfőbb következtetése, hogy a profitmaximumból levezetett optimális ár a minőség és az idő különböző paraméterei mellett meghatározható. A módszer segítségével a vállalatok közgazdasági eszközrendszer segítségével kapnak egy új szemléletet működési paramétereik és egyben versenyprioritásaik (ár, költség, minőségszint, idő) felállításához. _____ The study points to a new method for determining price with the tools of microeconomics and data of the Hungarian car market. The focus of the research is on where to find the point where the consumer is satisfied with the quality and price offered – preferably right time – and the company is satisfied with the profit achieved. In this study, therefore, in setting prices plays a central role the quality and time as a value-added feature. One of the main conclusions of the analysis is that the optimal price can be determined by various parameters of the quality and time. The method of using the economic tools help companies get a new perspective and to set up their optimal operating parameters (price, cost, quality level, time).