Study protocol: Transition from localized low back pain to chronic widespread pain in general practice: identification of risk factors, preventive factors and key elements for treatment--a cohort study

Background Chronic localized pain syndromes, especially chronic low back pain (CLBP), are common reasons for consultation in general practice. In some cases chronic localized pain syndromes can appear in combination with chronic widespread pain (CWP). Numerous studies have shown a strong association between CWP and several physical and psychological factors. These studies are population-based cross-sectional and do not allow for assessing chronology. There are very few prospective studies that explore the predictors for the onset of CWP, where the main focus is identifying risk factors for the CWP incidence. Until now there have been no studies focusing on preventive factors keeping patients from developing CWP. Our aim is to perform a cross sectional study on the epidemiology of CLBP and CWP in general practice and to look for distinctive features regarding resources like resilience, self-efficacy and coping strategies. A subsequent cohort study is designed to identify the risk and protective factors of pain generalization (development of CWP) in primary care for CLBP patients. Methods/Design Fifty-nine general practitioners recruit consecutively, during a 5 month period, all patients who are consulting their family doctor because of chronic low back pain (where the pain is lasted for 3 months). Patients are asked to fill out a questionnaire on pain anamnesis, pain-perception, co-morbidities, therapy course, medication, socio demographic data and psychosomatic symptoms. We assess resilience, coping resources, stress management and self-efficacy as potential protective factors for pain generalization. Furthermore, we raise risk factors for pain generalization like anxiety, depression, trauma and critical life events. During a twelve months follow up period a cohort of CLBP patients without CWP will be screened on a regular basis (3 monthly) for pain generalization (outcome: incident CWP). Discussion This cohort study will be the largest study which prospectively analyzes predictors for transition from CLBP to CWP in primary care setting. In contrast to the typically researched risk factors, which increase the probability of pain generalization, this study also focus intensively on protective factors, which decrease the probability of pain generalization.

Phylogenetic analysis of "Candidatus Mycoplasma turicensis" isolates from pet cats in the United Kingdom, Australia, and South Africa, with analysis of risk factors for infection

Two hemotropic mycoplasmas have been recognized in cats, Mycoplasma haemofelis and "Candidatus Mycoplasma haemominutum." We recently described a third feline hemoplasma species, designated "Candidatus Mycoplasma turicensis," in a Swiss cat with hemolytic anemia. This isolate induced anemia after experimental transmission to two specific-pathogen-free cats and analysis of the 16S rRNA gene revealed its close relationship to rodent hemotropic mycoplasmas. The agent was recently shown to be prevalent in Swiss pet cats. We sought to investigate the presence and clinical importance of "Candidatus Mycoplasma turicensis" infection in pet cats outside of Switzerland and to perform the molecular characterization of isolates from different countries. A "Candidatus Mycoplasma turicensis"-specific real-time PCR assay was applied to blood samples from 426 United Kingdom (UK), 147 Australian, and 69 South African pet cats. The 16S rRNA genes of isolates from different countries were sequenced and signalment and laboratory data for the cats were evaluated for associations with "Candidatus Mycoplasma turicensis" infection. Infections were detected in samples from UK, Australian, and South African pet cats. Infection was associated with the male gender, and "Candidatus Mycoplasma haemominutum" and M. haemofelis coinfection. Coinfected cats exhibited significantly lower packed cell volume (PCV) values than uninfected cats. Phylogenetic analyses revealed that some Australian and South African "Candidatus Mycoplasma turicensis" isolates branched away from the remaining isolates. In summary, "Candidatus Mycoplasma turicensis" infection in pet cats exists over a wide geographical area and significantly decreased PCV values are observed in cats coinfected with other feline hemoplasmas.

Prevalence of risk factors for cardiovascular disease in HIV-infected patients over time: the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE: Metabolic changes caused by antiretroviral therapy (ART) may increase the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). We evaluated changes in the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs) and 10-year risk of CHD in a large cohort of HIV-infected individuals. METHODS: All individuals from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) who completed at least one CVRF questionnaire and for whom laboratory data were available for the period February 2000 to February 2006 were included in the analysis. The presence of a risk factor was determined using cut-offs based on the guidelines of the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP ATP III), the Joint National Committee on Prevention, Detection, Evaluation, and Treatment of High Blood Pressure (JNC7), the American Diabetes Association, and the Swiss Society for Cardiology. RESULTS: Overall, 8,033 individuals completed at least one CVRF questionnaire. The most common CVRFs in the first completed questionnaire were smoking (57.0%), low high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol (37.2%), high triglycerides (35.7%), and high blood pressure (26.1%). In total, 2.7 and 13.8% of patients were categorized as being at high (>20%) and moderate (10-20%) 10-year risk for CHD, respectively. Over 6 years the percentage of smokers decreased from 61.4 to 47.6% and the percentage of individuals with total cholesterol >6.2 mmol/L decreased from 21.1 to 12.3%. The prevalence of CVRFs and CHD risk was higher in patients currently on ART than in either pretreated or ART-naive patients. CONCLUSION: During the 6-year observation period, the prevalence of CVRFs remains high in the SHCS. Time trends indicate a decrease in the percentage of smokers and individuals with high cholesterol.

Choosing Smoothness Parameters for Smoothing Splines by Minimizing and Estimate of Risk

Smoothing splines are a popular approach for non-parametric regression problems. We use periodic smoothing splines to fit a periodic signal plus noise model to data for which we assume there are underlying circadian patterns. In the smoothing spline methodology, choosing an appropriate smoothness parameter is an important step in practice. In this paper, we draw a connection between smoothing splines and REACT estimators that provides motivation for the creation of criteria for choosing the smoothness parameter. The new criteria are compared to three existing methods, namely cross-validation, generalized cross-validation, and generalization of maximum likelihood criteria, by a Monte Carlo simulation and by an application to the study of circadian patterns. For most of the situations presented in the simulations, including the practical example, the new criteria out-perform the three existing criteria.

Effect of risk factors on complicated and uncomplicated ulcers in the TARGET lumiracoxib outcomes study

BACKGROUND ; AIMS: Selective cyclooxygenase-2 inhibitors were developed to reduce the gastrointestinal risk associated with nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs). The Therapeutic Arthritis Research and Gastrointestinal Event Trial was the largest study to evaluate primarily the gastrointestinal safety outcomes of selective cyclooxygenase-2 inhibitors. Data from the Therapeutic Arthritis Research and Gastrointestinal Event Trial were used to identify risk factors and investigate the safety of lumiracoxib in subgroups. METHODS: Patients with osteoarthritis (age, >or=50 y) were randomized to receive lumiracoxib 400 mg once daily, naproxen 500 mg twice daily, or ibuprofen 800 mg 3 times daily for 12 months. Events were categorized by a blinded adjudication committee. The primary end point was all definite or probable ulcer complications. RESULTS: For patients taking NSAIDs, factors associated with an increased risk of ulcer complications were age 65 years or older (hazard ratio [HR], 2.30; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.48-3.59), previous history of gastrointestinal bleed or ulcer (HR, 3.61; 95% CI, 1.86-7.00), non-Caucasian racial origin (HR, 2.10; 95% CI, 1.35-3.27), and male sex (HR, 1.70; 95% CI, 1.08-2.68). With lumiracoxib, significant risk factors were age 65 years or older (HR, 3.18; 95% CI, 1.40-7.20), male sex (HR, 2.60; 95% CI, 1.25-5.40), non-Caucasian racial origin (HR, 2.16; 95% CI, 1.02-4.59), and concomitant aspirin use (HR, 2.89; 95% CI, 1.40-5.97). Increased risks in patients age 65 years and older were increased further if other risk factors were present. Lumiracoxib maintained an advantage over NSAIDs across all subgroups except aspirin use. CONCLUSIONS: Lumiracoxib was associated with a reduced risk of ulcer complications compared with NSAIDs in all significant subgroups except aspirin users.

Graft coronary vasculopathy in cardiac transplantation--evaluation of risk factors by multivariate analysis

The development of coronary vasculopathy is the main determinant of long-term survival in cardiac transplantation. The identification of risk factors, therefore, seems necessary in order to identify possible treatment strategies. Ninety-five out of 397 patients, undergoing orthotopic cardiac transplantation from 10/1985 to 10/1992 were evaluated retrospectively on the basis of perioperative and postoperative variables including age, sex, diagnosis, previous operations, renal function, cholesterol levels, dosage of immunosuppressive drugs (cyclosporin A, azathioprine, steroids), incidence of rejection, treatment with calcium channel blockers at 3, 6, 12, and 18 months postoperatively. Coronary vasculopathy was assessed by annual angiography at 1 and 2 years postoperatively. After univariate analysis, data were evaluated by stepwise multiple logistic regression analysis. Coronary vasculopathy was assessed in 15 patients at 1 (16%), and in 23 patients (24%) at 2, years. On multivariate analysis, previous operations and the incidence of rejections were identified as significant risk factors (P < 0.05), whereas the underlying diagnosis had borderline significance (P = 0.058) for the development of graft coronary vasculopathy. In contrast, all other variables were not significant in our subset of patients investigated. We therefore conclude that the development of coronary vasculopathy in cardiac transplant patients mainly depends on the rejection process itself, aside from patient-dependent factors. Therapeutic measures, such as the administration of calcium channel blockers and regulation of lipid disorders, may therefore only reduce the progress of native atherosclerotic disease in the posttransplant setting.

Is the Market Classification of Risk Always Efficient? - Evidence from German Third Party Motor Insurance

This paper studies the empirical effects of risk classification in the mandatory third-party motor insurance of Germany following the European Union’s directive to de-regulate insurance tariffs of 1994. We find evidence that inefficient risk categories had been selected while potentially efficient information was dismissed. Risk classification did generally not improve the efficiency of contracting or the composition of insureds in this market. These findings are partly explained by the continuing existence of institutional restraints in this market such as compulsory fixed coverage and unitary owner insurance.

Capital Market Implications of Corporate Disclosure: German Evidence

This paper investigates the relationship between annual report disclosure, market liquidity, and capital cost for firms registered on the Deutsche Börse. Disclosure is comprehensively measured using the innovative Artificial Intelligence Measurement of Disclosure (AIMD). Results show that annual report disclosure enhances market liquidity by changing investors’ expectations and inducing portfolio adjustments. Trading frictions are negatively associated with disclosure. The study provides evidence for a capital-costreduction effect of disclosure based on the analysis of investors’ return requirements and market values. Altogether, no evidence is found that the information processing at the German capital market is structurally different from other markets.

Efficiency of risk-based vs . random sampling for the monitoring of tetracycline residues in slaughtered calves in Switzerland

In all European Union countries, chemical residues are required to be routinely monitored in meat. Good farming and veterinary practice can prevent the contamination of meat with pharmaceutical substances, resulting in a low detection of drug residues through random sampling. An alternative approach is to target-monitor farms suspected of treating their animals with antimicrobials. The objective of this project was to assess, using a stochastic model, the efficiency of these two sampling strategies. The model integrated data on Swiss livestock as well as expert opinion and results from studies conducted in Switzerland. Risk-based sampling showed an increase in detection efficiency of up to 100% depending on the prevalence of contaminated herds. Sensitivity analysis of this model showed the importance of the accuracy of prior assumptions for conducting risk-based sampling. The resources gained by changing from random to risk-based sampling should be transferred to improving the quality of prior information.

Implementation status of error disclosure standards reported by Swiss hospitals

QUESTION UNDER STUDY To establish at what stage Swiss hospitals are in implementing an internal standard concerning communication with patients and families after an error that resulted in harm. METHODS Hospitals were identified via the Swiss Hospital Association's website. An anonymous questionnaire was sent during September and October 2011 to 379 hospitals in German, French or Italian. Hospitals were asked to specify their hospital type and the implementation status of an internal hospital standard that decrees that patients or their relatives are to be promptly informed about medical errors that result in harm. RESULTS Responses from a total of 205 hospitals were received, a response rate of 54%. Most responding hospitals (62%) had an error disclosure standard or planned to implement one within 12 months. The majority of responding university and acute care (75%) hospitals had introduced a disclosure standard or were planning to do so. In contrast, the majority of responding psychiatric, rehabilitation and specialty (53%) clinics had not introduced a standard. CONCLUSION It appears that Swiss hospitals are in a promising state in providing institutional support for practitioners disclosing medical errors to patients. This has been shown internationally to be one important factor in encouraging the disclosure of medical errors. However, many hospitals, in particular psychiatric, rehabilitation and specialty clinics, have not implemented an error disclosure policy. Further research is needed to explore the underlying reasons.