Tests of sunspot number sequences: 3. Effects of regression procedures on the calibration of historic sunspot data

We use sunspot group observations from the Royal Greenwich Observatory (RGO) to investigate the effects of intercalibrating data from observers with different visual acuities. The tests are made by counting the number of groups RB above a variable cut-off threshold of observed total whole-spot area (uncorrected for foreshortening) to simulate what a lower acuity observer would have seen. The synthesised annual means of RB are then re-scaled to the full observed RGO group number RA using a variety of regression techniques. It is found that a very high correlation between RA and RB (rAB > 0.98) does not prevent large errors in the intercalibration (for example sunspot maximum values can be over 30 % too large even for such levels of rAB). In generating the backbone sunspot number (RBB), Svalgaard and Schatten (2015, this issue) force regression fits to pass through the scatter plot origin which generates unreliable fits (the residuals do not form a normal distribution) and causes sunspot cycle amplitudes to be exaggerated in the intercalibrated data. It is demonstrated that the use of Quantile-Quantile (“Q  Q”) plots to test for a normal distribution is a useful indicator of erroneous and misleading regression fits. Ordinary least squares linear fits, not forced to pass through the origin, are sometimes reliable (although the optimum method used is shown to be different when matching peak and average sunspot group numbers). However, other fits are only reliable if non-linear regression is used. From these results it is entirely possible that the inflation of solar cycle amplitudes in the backbone group sunspot number as one goes back in time, relative to related solar-terrestrial parameters, is entirely caused by the use of inappropriate and non-robust regression techniques to calibrate the sunspot data.

Tests of sunspot number sequences: 1. Using ionosonde data

More than 70 years ago it was recognised that ionospheric F2-layer critical frequencies [foF2] had a strong relationship to sunspot number. Using historic datasets from the Slough and Washington ionosondes, we evaluate the best statistical fits of foF2 to sunspot numbers (at each Universal Time [UT] separately) in order to search for drifts and abrupt changes in the fit residuals over Solar Cycles 17-21. This test is carried out for the original composite of the Wolf/Zürich/International sunspot number [R], the new “backbone” group sunspot number [RBB] and the proposed “corrected sunspot number” [RC]. Polynomial fits are made both with and without allowance for the white-light facular area, which has been reported as being associated with cycle-to-cycle changes in the sunspot number - foF2 relationship. Over the interval studied here, R, RBB, and RC largely differ in their allowance for the “Waldmeier discontinuity” around 1945 (the correction factor for which for R, RBB and RC is, respectively, zero, effectively over 20 %, and explicitly 11.6 %). It is shown that for Solar Cycles 18-21, all three sunspot data sequences perform well, but that the fit residuals are lowest and most uniform for RBB. We here use foF2 for those UTs for which R, RBB, and RC all give correlations exceeding 0.99 for intervals both before and after the Waldmeier discontinuity. The error introduced by the Waldmeier discontinuity causes R to underestimate the fitted values based on the foF2 data for 1932-1945 but RBB overestimates them by almost the same factor, implying that the correction for the Waldmeier discontinuity inherent in RBB is too large by a factor of two. Fit residuals are smallest and most uniform for RC and the ionospheric data support the optimum discontinuity multiplicative correction factor derived from the independent Royal Greenwich Observatory (RGO) sunspot group data for the same interval.

Modifications and Alternatives to the Tests of Levene and Brown & Forsythe for Equality of Variances and Means

The usual tests to compare variances and means (e. g. Bartlett`s test and F-test) assume that the sample comes from a normal distribution. In addition, the test for equality of means requires the assumption of homogeneity of variances. In some situation those assumptions are not satisfied, hence we may face problems like excessive size and low power. In this paper, we describe two tests, namely the Levene`s test for equality of variances, which is robust under nonnormality; and the Brown and Forsythe`s test for equality of means. We also present some modifications of the Levene`s test and Brown and Forsythe`s test, proposed by different authors. We analyzed and applied one modified form of Brown and Forsythe`s test to a real data set. This test is a robust alternative under nonnormality, heteroscedasticity and also when the data set has influential observations. The equality of variance can be well tested by Levene`s test with centering at the sample median.

Universal Experimental Measurement System «Sun-Walker» : Automotive measurement system for the evaluation of the solar irradiation distribution for the tests of the solar concentrated systems.

This Thesis project is a part of the research conducted in Solar industry. ABSOLICON Solar Concentrator AB has invented and started production of the prospective solar concentrated system Absolicon X10. The aims of this Thesis project are designing, assembling, calibrating and putting in operation the automatic measurement system intended to evaluate distribution of density of solar radiation in the focal line of the concentrated parabolic reflectors and to measure radiation from the artificial source of light being a calibration-testing tool.On the basis of the requirements of the company’s administration and needs of designing the concentrated reflectors the operation conditions for the Sun-Walker were formulated. As the first step, the complex design of the whole system was made and division on the parts was specified. After the preliminary conducted simulation of the functions and operation conditions of the all parts were formulated.As the next steps, the detailed design of all the parts was made. Most components were ordered from respective companies. Some of the mechanical components were made in the workshop of the company. All parts of the Sun-Walker were assembled and tested. The software part, which controls the Sun-Walker work and conducts measurements of solar irradiation, was created on the LabVIEW basis. To tune and test the software part, the special simulator was designed and assembled.When all parts were assembled in the complete system, the Sun-Walker was tested, calibrated and tuned.

A comparative study on accelerated weathering tests of wool fabrics

This work has used two lightboxes with Philips 500 W MBTF lamps for a comparative trial on the photoyellowing evaluation of untreated wool fabrics under dry and wet conditions. An investigation was made to account for different trends of photoyellowing of the same wool fabric when irradiated by the two lightboxes. The fabric specimens irradiated in one lamp experienced increasing yellowing with irradiation time while specimens from the same wool fabric but irradiated under the other lamp manifested no noticeable color change. These differences are attributed to the susceptibility of wool to small spectral differences between the two MBTF lamps. Furthermore, the color fading results obtained from the commonly used blue wool standard (BWS) references from L1 to L3 show that these reference materials could not effectively reveal changes caused by the spectral differences in two MBTF lamps. These results have important implications for conducting accelerated weathering tests on spectrum-sensitive textile materials, and considerable care should be taken when using BWSs to ensure reliable and consistent irradiation results.

Tests of measurement invariance failed to support the application of the "then-test"

Objective
The use of then-test (retrospective pre-test) scores has frequently been proposed as a solution to potential confounding of change scores because of response shift, as it is assumed that then-test and post-test responses are provided from the same perspective. However, this assumption has not been formally tested using robust quantitative methods. The aim of this study was to compare the psychometric performance of then-test/post-test with traditional pre-test/post-test data and assessing whether the resulting data structures support the application of the then-test for evaluations of chronic disease self-management interventions.

Study Design and Setting
Pre-test, post-test, and then-test data were collected from 314 participants of self-management courses using the Health Education Impact Questionnaire (heiQ). The derived change scores (pre-test/post-test; then-test/post-test) were examined for their psychometric performance using tests of measurement invariance.

Results
Few questionnaire items were noninvariant across pre-test/post-test, with four items identified and requiring removal to enable an unbiased comparison of factor means. In contrast, 12 items were identified and required removal in then-test/post-test data to avoid biased change score estimates.

Conclusion
Traditional pre-test/post-test data appear to be robust with little indication of response shift. In contrast, the weaker psychometric performance of then-test/post-test data suggests psychometric flaws that may be the result of implicit theory of change, social desirability, and recall bias.

Teachers' perceptions of their abilities to be educational leaders in Victorian childcare settings

In the context of new national regulatory requirements for designated educational leaders in early childhood settings, 11 Victorian teachers participated in semi-structured interviews exploring their perceptions of their ability to act as educational leaders in their childcare centres. Analysis of these interviews showed that, while teachers successfully made changes within their rooms, only those with a formal title or authority expressed confidence in their ability to lead change across their centres. Barriers to leadership included lack of time and a perception that their teacher qualifications 'did not buy authority'. A hierarchical model of leadership appeared dominant within the centres. The findings suggest both time allowance and formal role designation as strategies to support the new leadership roles, but also raise questions about the most effective models for supporting teacher leadership in childcare contexts.

A comparison of pragmatic abilities of children who are deaf or hard of hearing and their hearing peers

Pragmatic skills are the key to a satisfying and sustained conversation. Such conversation is critical for the development of meaningful friendships. Previous studies have investigated the conversational skills of deaf children while interacting with adults or when interacting with peers in structured referential tasks. There are few published studies that have compared the pragmatic skills of children who are deaf or hard of hearing (D/HH) in free conversation with their hearing peers. In this study, the conversational skills of 31 children who are D/HH when interacting with a hearing friend were compared with those of 31 pairs of hearing children. Findings suggest that school-aged children (Years 3–6 of study; aged 8–12 years) who are D/HH have a wide range of pragmatic skills that they use effectively when conversing with their hearing peers. Specifically, these children asked more questions, made more personal comments, initiated more topics, and took longer turns in their conversations with a hearing friend. In contrast, the conversations between hearing peers were very balanced with similar topic initiation, length of turn, numbers of questions, personal comments, and minimal answers. These findings will help teachers to provide support for both pragmatic and social skills in children who are D/HH.