Análise dos royalties do petróleo sob a perspectiva jurídica

This research aims to discuss the division of royalties from a legal perspective and its substitute role towards the non-taxation at source, in other words the taxation of destiny at the Brazilian petroleum industry. The analysis aims to deal with the historical evolution in relation to the aspect of royalties’ payment and its deviation of compensatory character in order to supply the ICMS function. There are some specific study objects in this research: 1. how the transformation of royalties’ payment led to financial compensation; 2. to whom the transference of mineral rent belongs – to the UNIÃO or to the fortunate regions which the oil is extracted; 3. would a tax reform be enough to minimize the competition of States and Cities towards the royalties? The research aims to clarify the real expectation that States have on the royalties’ payment. There is no compensation for damage to the environment as it is stated by the initial characteristic of the Constitution, and, by the contrast, from a compensatory character, there is a lacking of taxation from the sector mentioned before, this fact damages the producing states checked out by this research

I profili fiscali delle operazioni di riorganizzazione societaria transfrontaliere nell'Unione Europea: Il regime fiscale comune della direttiva 2009/133/CE e le prospettive di sviluppo normativo

La tesi affronta le problematiche fiscali della riorganizzazione societaria e la soluzione adoperata nell’Unione europea per le operazioni di carattere transfrontaliere. Si parte dalla definizione del termine “riorganizzazione societaria”, evidenziando le sue matici economiche e la varietà del suo contenuto secondo l’ordinamento giuridico e la branca del diritto di riferimento. Si prosegue sulla correlazione fra l’ampliazione del contenuto della libertà di stabilimento, dovuta maggiormente all’attività interpretativa della Corte di giustizia, e l’allargamento del concetto di riorganizzazione societaria nel quadro normativo dell’Unione. Si procede dunque all’analisi del regime fiscale comune della direttiva 2009/133/CE intravedendosi i suoi sviluppi successivi. In sede di conclusioni, si apporta un breve riassunto sullo stato della questione in Brasile e si riflette sull’attendibilità del modello impositivo dell’Unione quale parametro per una futura riforma fiscale in Brasile.

Past is Prologue: Montana’s Historic Women’s Movement Re-emerges in the Progressive 1970s -- Dorothy Bradley, Marilyn Wessel & Jane Jelinski “In the Crucible of Change”

One-hundred years ago, in 1914, male voters in Montana (MT) extended suffrage (voting rights) to women six years before the 19th Amendment to the US Constitution was ratified and provided that right to women in all states. The long struggle for women’s suffrage was energized in the progressive era and Jeanette Rankin of Missoula emerged as a leader of the campaign; in 1912 both major MT political party platforms supported women suffrage. In the 1914 election, 41,000 male voters supported woman suffrage while nearly 38,000 opposed it. MT was not only ahead of the curve on women suffrage, but just two years later in 1916 elected Jeanette Rankin as the first woman ever elected to the United States Congress. Rankin became a national leader for women's equality. In her commitment to equality, she opposed US entry into World War I, partially because she said she could not support men being made to go to war if women were not allowed to serve alongside them. During MT’s initial progressive era, women in MT not only pursued equality for themselves (the MT Legislature passed an equal pay act in 1919), but pursued other social improvements, such as temperance/prohibition. Well-known national women leaders such as Carrie Nation and others found a welcome in MT during the period. Women's role in the trade union movement was evidenced in MT by the creation of the Women's Protective Union in Butte, the first union in America dedicated solely to women workers. But Rankin’s defeat following her vote against World War I was used as a way for opponents to advocate a conservative, traditionalist perspective on women's rights in MT. Just as we then entered a period in MT where the “copper collar” was tightened around MT economically and politically by the Anaconda Company and its allies, we also found a different kind of conservative, traditionalist collar tightened around the necks of MT women. The recognition of women's role during World War II, represented by “Rosie the Riveter,” made it more difficult for that conservative, traditionalist approach to be forever maintained. In addition, women's role in MT agriculture – family farms and ranches -- spoke strongly to the concept of equality, as farm wives were clearly active partners in the agricultural enterprises. But rural MT was, by and large, the bastion of conservative values relative to the position of women in society. As the period of “In the Crucible of Change” began, the 1965 MT Legislature included only three women. In 1967 and 1969 only one woman legislator served. In 1971 the number went up to two, including one of our guests, Dorothy Bradley. It was only after the Constitutional Convention, which featured 19 women delegates, that the barrier was broken. The 1973 Legislature saw 9 women elected. The 1975 and 1977 sessions had 14 women legislators; 15 were elected for the 1979 session. At that time progressive women and men in the Legislature helped implement the equality provisions of the new MT Constitution, ratified the federal Equal Rights Amendment in 1974, and held back national and local conservatives forces which sought in later Legislatures to repeal that ratification. As with the national movement at the time, MT women sought and often succeeded in adopting legal mechanisms that protected women’s equality, while full equality in the external world remained (and remains) a treasured objective. The story of the re-emergence of Montana’s women’s movement in the 1970s is discussed in this chapter by three very successful and prominent women who were directly involved in the effort: Dorothy Bradley, Marilyn Wessel, and Jane Jelinski. Their recollections of the political, sociological and cultural path Montana women pursued in the 1970s and the challenges and opposition they faced provide an insider’s perspective of the battle for equality for women under the Big Sky “In the Crucible of Change.” Dorothy Bradley grew up in Bozeman, Montana; received her Bachelor of Arts Phi Beta Kappa from Colorado College, Colorado Springs, in 1969 with a Distinction in Anthropology; and her Juris Doctor from American University in Washington, D.C., in 1983. In 1970, at the age of 22, following the first Earth Day and running on an environmental platform, Ms. Bradley won a seat in the 1971 Montana House of Representatives where she served as the youngest member and only woman. Bradley established a record of achievement on environmental & progressive legislation for four terms, before giving up the seat to run a strong second to Pat Williams for the Democratic nomination for an open seat in Montana’s Western Congressional District. After becoming an attorney and an expert on water law, she returned to the Legislature for 4 more terms in the mid-to-late 1980s. Serving a total of eight terms, Dorothy was known for her leadership on natural resources, tax reform, economic development, and other difficult issues during which time she gained recognition for her consensus-building approach. Campaigning by riding her horse across the state, Dorothy was the Democratic nominee for Governor in 1992, losing the race by less than a percentage point. In 1993 she briefly taught at a small rural school next to the Northern Cheyenne Indian Reservation. She was then hired as the Director of the Montana University System Water Center, an education and research arm of Montana State University. From 2000 - 2008 she served as the first Gallatin County Court Administrator with the task of collaboratively redesigning the criminal justice system. She currently serves on One Montana’s Board, is a National Advisor for the American Prairie Foundation, and is on NorthWestern Energy’s Board of Directors. Dorothy was recognized with an Honorary Doctorate from her alma mater, Colorado College, was named Business Woman of the Year by the Bozeman Chamber of Commerce and MSU Alumni Association, and was Montana Business and Professional Women’s Montana Woman of Achievement. Marilyn Wessel was born in Iowa, lived and worked in Los Angeles, California, and Washington, D.C. before moving to Bozeman in 1972. She has an undergraduate degree in journalism from Iowa State University, graduate degree in public administration from Montana State University, certification from the Harvard University Institute for Education Management, and served a senior internship with the U.S. Congress, Montana delegation. In Montana Marilyn has served in a number of professional positions, including part-time editor for the Montana Cooperative Extension Service, News Director for KBMN Radio, Special Assistant to the President and Director of Communications at Montana State University, Director of University Relations at Montana State University and Dean and Director of the Museum of the Rockies at MSU. Marilyn retired from MSU as Dean Emeritus in 2003. Her past Board Service includes Montana State Merit System Council, Montana Ambassadors, Vigilante Theater Company, Montana State Commission on Practice, Museum of the Rockies, Helena Branch of the Ninth District Federal Reserve Bank, Burton K. Wheeler Center for Public Policy, Bozeman Chamber of Commerce, and Friends of KUSM Public Television. Marilyn’s past publications and productions include several articles on communications and public administration issues as well as research, script preparation and presentation of several radio documentaries and several public television programs. She is co-author of one book, 4-H An American Idea: A History of 4-H. Marilyn’s other past volunteer activities and organizations include Business and Professional Women, Women's Political Caucus, League of Women Voters, and numerous political campaigns. She is currently engaged professionally in museum-related consulting and part-time teaching at Montana State University as well as serving on the Editorial Board of the Bozeman Daily Chronicle and a member of Pilgrim Congregational Church and Family Promise. Marilyn and her husband Tom, a retired MSU professor, live in Bozeman. She enjoys time with her children and grandchildren, hiking, golf, Italian studies, cooking, gardening and travel. Jane Jelinski is a Wisconsin native, with a BA from Fontbonne College in St. Louis, MO who taught fifth and seventh grades prior to moving to Bozeman in 1973. A stay-at-home mom with a five year old daughter and an infant son, she was promptly recruited by the Gallatin Women’s Political Caucus to conduct a study of Sex-Role Stereotyping in K Through 6 Reading Text Books in the Bozeman School District. Sociologist Dr. Louise Hale designed the study and did the statistical analysis and Jane read all the texts, entered the data and wrote the report. It was widely disseminated across Montana and received attention of the press. Her next venture into community activism was to lead the successful effort to downzone her neighborhood which was under threat of encroaching business development. Today the neighborhood enjoys the protections of a Historic Preservation District. During this time she earned her MPA from Montana State University. Subsequently Jane founded the Gallatin Advocacy Program for Developmentally Disabled Adults in 1978 and served as its Executive Director until her appointment to the Gallatin County Commission in 1984, a controversial appointment which she chronicled in the Fall issue of the Gallatin History Museum Quarterly. Copies of the issue can be ordered through: http://gallatinhistorymuseum.org/the-museum-bookstore/shop/. Jane was re-elected three times as County Commissioner, serving fourteen years. She was active in the Montana Association of Counties (MACO) and was elected its President in 1994. She was also active in the National Association of Counties, serving on numerous policy committees. In 1998 Jane resigned from the County Commission 6 months before the end of her final term to accept the position of Assistant Director of MACO, from where she lobbied for counties, provided training and research for county officials, and published a monthly newsletter. In 2001 she became Director of the MSU Local Government Center where she continued to provide training and research for county and municipal officials across MT. There she initiated the Montana Mayors Academy in partnership with MMIA. She taught State and Local Government, Montana Politics and Public Administration in the MSU Political Science Department before retiring in 2008. Jane has been married to Jack for 46 years, has two grown children and three grandchildren.

A Preliminary Impact Assessment of Doha Round Results on Agricultural Policies in Turkey

Turkish agriculture has been experiencing a period of unique policy experiment over the last couple years. A World Bank-initiated project, called the Agricultural Reform Implementation Project (ARIP), has been at the forefront of policy change. It was initially promoted by the Bank as an exemplary reform package which could also be adopted by other developing countries. It was introduced in 2001 as part of a major International Monetary Fund (IMF)/World Bank-imposed program of “structural adjustment” after the country had been hit by a major financial crisis. The project has finally come to an end in 2009, and there is now an urgent need for a retrospective assessment of its overall impact on the agricultural sector. Has it fulfilled its ambitious objective of reforming and restructuring Turkish agriculture? Or should it be recorded as a failure of the neo-liberal doctrine? This book aims at finding answers to these questions by investigating the legacy of ARIP from a multi-disciplinary perspective.

Production sharing, demand spillovers and CO2 emissions : the case of Chinese regions in GVCs

This study adopts the perspective of demand spillovers to provide new insights regarding Chinese domestic-regions' production position in global value chains and their associated CO2 emissions. To this end, we constructed a new type of World Input-Output Database in which China's domestic interregional input-output table for 2007 is endogenously embedded. Then, the pattern of China's regional demand spillovers across both domestic regions and countries are revealed by employing this new database. These results were further connected to endowments theory, which help to make sense of the empirical results. It is found that China's regions locate relatively upstream in GVCs, and had CO2 emissions in net exports, which were entirely predicted by the environmental extended HOV model. Our study points to micro policy instruments to combat climate change, for example, the tax reform for energy inputs that helps to change the production pattern thus has impact on trade pattern and so forth.

Essays on the Effects of Corporate Taxation

Cette thèse est une collection de trois articles en macroéconomie et finances publiques. Elle développe des modèles d'Equilibre Général Dynamique et Stochastique pour analyser les implications macroéconomiques des politiques d'imposition des entreprises en présence de marchés financiers imparfaits. Le premier chapitre analyse les mécanismes de transmission à l'économie, des effets d'un ré-échelonnement de l'impôt sur le profit des entreprises. Dans une économie constituée d'un gouvernement, d'une firme représentative et d'un ménage représentatif, j'élabore un théorème de l'équivalence ricardienne avec l'impôt sur le profit des entreprises. Plus particulièrement, j'établis que si les marchés financiers sont parfaits, un ré-échelonnement de l'impôt sur le profit des entreprises qui ne change pas la valeur présente de l'impôt total auquel l'entreprise est assujettie sur toute sa durée de vie n'a aucun effet réel sur l'économie si l'état utilise un impôt forfaitaire. Ensuite, en présence de marchés financiers imparfaits, je montre qu'une une baisse temporaire de l'impôt forfaitaire sur le profit des entreprises stimule l'investissement parce qu'il réduit temporairement le coût marginal de l'investissement. Enfin, mes résultats indiquent que si l'impôt est proportionnel au profit des entreprises, l'anticipation de taxes élevées dans le futur réduit le rendement espéré de l'investissement et atténue la stimulation de l'investissement engendrée par la réduction d'impôt. Le deuxième chapitre est écrit en collaboration avec Rui Castro. Dans cet article, nous avons quantifié les effets sur les décisions individuelles d'investis-sement et de production des entreprises ainsi que sur les agrégats macroéconomiques, d'une baisse temporaire de l'impôt sur le profit des entreprises en présence de marchés financiers imparfaits. Dans un modèle où les entreprises sont sujettes à des chocs de productivité idiosyncratiques, nous avons d'abord établi que le rationnement de crédit affecte plus les petites (jeunes) entreprises que les grandes entreprises. Pour des entreprises de même taille, les entreprises les plus productives sont celles qui souffrent le plus du manque de liquidité résultant des imperfections du marché financier. Ensuite, nous montré que pour une baisse de 1 dollar du revenu de l'impôt, l'investissement et la production augmentent respectivement de 26 et 3,5 centimes. L'effet cumulatif indique une augmentation de l'investissement et de la production agrégés respectivement de 4,6 et 7,2 centimes. Au niveau individuel, nos résultats indiquent que la politique stimule l'investissement des petites entreprises, initialement en manque de liquidité, alors qu'elle réduit l'investissement des grandes entreprises, initialement non contraintes. Le troisième chapitre est consacré à l'analyse des effets de la réforme de l'imposition des revenus d'entreprise proposée par le Trésor américain en 1992. La proposition de réforme recommande l'élimination des impôts sur les dividendes et les gains en capital et l'imposition d'une seule taxe sur le revenu des entreprises. Pour ce faire, j'ai eu recours à un modèle dynamique stochastique d'équilibre général avec marchés financiers imparfaits dans lequel les entreprises sont sujettes à des chocs idiosyncratiques de productivité. Les résultats indiquent que l'abolition des impôts sur les dividendes et les gains en capital réduisent les distorsions dans les choix d'investissement des entreprises, stimule l'investissement et entraîne une meilleure allocation du capital. Mais pour être financièrement soutenable, la réforme nécessite un relèvement du taux de l'impôt sur le profit des entreprises de 34\% à 42\%. Cette hausse du taux d'imposition décourage l'accumulation du capital. En somme, la réforme engendre une baisse de l'accumulation du capital et de la production respectivement de 8\% et 1\%. Néanmoins, elle améliore l'allocation du capital de 20\%, engendrant des gains de productivité de 1.41\% et une modeste augmentation du bien être des consommateurs.

Carbon Leakage: Options for the EU. CEPS Special Report, March 2014

This CEPS Special Report builds on the first deliverable of the project entitled “Carbon leakage: Options for the EU”. It identifies carbon costs, and the ability to pass through carbon costs, as the main risk factors that could lead from asymmetrical carbon policies to carbon leakage. It also outlines and evaluates, based on criteria discussed in the paper, options for detecting and mitigating the risk of carbon leakage in three jurisdictions, with special attention to the EU ETS (Emissions Trading Scheme). Based on the analysis of approaches currently used in a number of existing carbon pricing systems, it identifies the balance between the number of sectors identified as being at risk, and the amount of compensation provided as a risk mitigation measure, as the critical element in providing an optimum approach to address carbon leakage risks. It also identifies a risk-based approach to identifying sectors at risk as allowing for a better reflection of reality in a counterfactual argument. Finally, the paper concludes that while, with some exceptions, there has been limited carbon leakage until now, the past may not be a good reflection of the future and that measures need to be put in place for the post-2020 period. While examining a number of approaches, it identifies free allocation as the most likely way forward for mitigating the risk of carbon leakage. While other approaches may provide interesting options, they also present challenges for implementation, from a market functioning, to international trade and relations, points of view. A number of challenges will need to be addressed in the post-2020 period, with many of them part of the EU ETS structural reform package. Some of these challenges include, among others, the need to recognise, and provide for individual sectoral characteristics, as well as for changes in production patterns, due to economic cycles, and other factors. Finally, the paper emphasises the need for an open dialogue regarding the post-2020 provisions for carbon leakage as no overall Energy and Climate Package is likely to be agreed on until this matter is addressed.

Freedom of religion in Turkey - The Alevi issue. EPC Commentary, 24 January 2014

Freedom of religion is a fundamental right that must be protected and respected by states. While Turkey has taken important steps in advancing religious freedoms over the last decade, a number of challenges remain. Turkey’s Alevi Community continues to face serious problems in terms of being officially recognised by the state and in practicing their religion. While Turkey is officially a secular country, Sunni Islam is the unofficial state religion. Despite Ankara being a signatory of several international conventions and treaties that guarantee fundamental freedoms for all, key fundamental rights of Alevis remain ignored by the state. Last September, hopes were raised that a new “democratisation package” would include steps to further their freedoms but it failed to do so, with the government announcing that a ‘special’ Alevi reform package would be unveiled by the end of 2013. This did not happen.

Brexit or not? Time for the EU to move. EPC Commentary, 8 September 2014

The deteriorating relationship between the United Kingdom (UK) and the rest of the EU, including the prospect of a referendum on EU membership, would have dominated the Union’s agenda had it not been for the economic/financial crisis, followed by the external crisis which we are now facing in the East. Precisely because of these crises, it is now time for the incoming European Commission to take the bull by the horns and ensure that the EU can move on from a potential referendum and its possible outcomes. The June European Council noted that “the UK raised some concerns related to the future development of the EU. These concerns will need to be addressed. In this context, the European Council noted that the concept of ever closer union allows for different paths of integration for different countries, allowing those that want to deepen integration to move ahead, while respecting the wish of those who do not want to deepen any further.” While the EU has, arguably, successfully developed at different speeds for decades, to address the UK’s (fundamental) concerns, it is now time to work out whether and how the UK can be accommodated, and what this would mean in practice. UK membership is desirable but not at any price, so the aim should be to keep the UK in, while also ensuring that the principles on which the EU is built are protected. There will need to be a modus operandi which enables the EU and in particular, the Eurozone, to continue to make progress in addressing the shortcomings of European integration and European Monetary Union (EMU) in particular, while at the same time offering a reform package that can satisfy the UK. This does not necessarily mean that all EMU reforms have to be within the EU framework: additional intergovernmental arrangements could also be a possibility. However, this could add to the complexity and inefficiency of the system, as well as sidelining the supranational element of EU governance which will be needed to make EMU function.

Britain’s Political Earthquake: What aftershocks for Europe and the UK? CEPS Commentary, 11 May 2015

In the wake of last week’s elections in Britain, Michael Emerson examines in this CEPS Commentary the implications of the astonishing results for the EU and the UK and outlines a possible reform package that David Cameron might present to the EU institutions and other member states to fulfil his pledge to achieve a “reformed EU”. He also urges the Prime Minister to consider adding a constructive component to his reform package, namely positioning the UK to act once again as a leading proponent of a more effective European foreign, security and defence policy.

Essays on the Effects of Corporate Taxation

Cette thèse est une collection de trois articles en macroéconomie et finances publiques. Elle développe des modèles d'Equilibre Général Dynamique et Stochastique pour analyser les implications macroéconomiques des politiques d'imposition des entreprises en présence de marchés financiers imparfaits. Le premier chapitre analyse les mécanismes de transmission à l'économie, des effets d'un ré-échelonnement de l'impôt sur le profit des entreprises. Dans une économie constituée d'un gouvernement, d'une firme représentative et d'un ménage représentatif, j'élabore un théorème de l'équivalence ricardienne avec l'impôt sur le profit des entreprises. Plus particulièrement, j'établis que si les marchés financiers sont parfaits, un ré-échelonnement de l'impôt sur le profit des entreprises qui ne change pas la valeur présente de l'impôt total auquel l'entreprise est assujettie sur toute sa durée de vie n'a aucun effet réel sur l'économie si l'état utilise un impôt forfaitaire. Ensuite, en présence de marchés financiers imparfaits, je montre qu'une une baisse temporaire de l'impôt forfaitaire sur le profit des entreprises stimule l'investissement parce qu'il réduit temporairement le coût marginal de l'investissement. Enfin, mes résultats indiquent que si l'impôt est proportionnel au profit des entreprises, l'anticipation de taxes élevées dans le futur réduit le rendement espéré de l'investissement et atténue la stimulation de l'investissement engendrée par la réduction d'impôt. Le deuxième chapitre est écrit en collaboration avec Rui Castro. Dans cet article, nous avons quantifié les effets sur les décisions individuelles d'investis-sement et de production des entreprises ainsi que sur les agrégats macroéconomiques, d'une baisse temporaire de l'impôt sur le profit des entreprises en présence de marchés financiers imparfaits. Dans un modèle où les entreprises sont sujettes à des chocs de productivité idiosyncratiques, nous avons d'abord établi que le rationnement de crédit affecte plus les petites (jeunes) entreprises que les grandes entreprises. Pour des entreprises de même taille, les entreprises les plus productives sont celles qui souffrent le plus du manque de liquidité résultant des imperfections du marché financier. Ensuite, nous montré que pour une baisse de 1 dollar du revenu de l'impôt, l'investissement et la production augmentent respectivement de 26 et 3,5 centimes. L'effet cumulatif indique une augmentation de l'investissement et de la production agrégés respectivement de 4,6 et 7,2 centimes. Au niveau individuel, nos résultats indiquent que la politique stimule l'investissement des petites entreprises, initialement en manque de liquidité, alors qu'elle réduit l'investissement des grandes entreprises, initialement non contraintes. Le troisième chapitre est consacré à l'analyse des effets de la réforme de l'imposition des revenus d'entreprise proposée par le Trésor américain en 1992. La proposition de réforme recommande l'élimination des impôts sur les dividendes et les gains en capital et l'imposition d'une seule taxe sur le revenu des entreprises. Pour ce faire, j'ai eu recours à un modèle dynamique stochastique d'équilibre général avec marchés financiers imparfaits dans lequel les entreprises sont sujettes à des chocs idiosyncratiques de productivité. Les résultats indiquent que l'abolition des impôts sur les dividendes et les gains en capital réduisent les distorsions dans les choix d'investissement des entreprises, stimule l'investissement et entraîne une meilleure allocation du capital. Mais pour être financièrement soutenable, la réforme nécessite un relèvement du taux de l'impôt sur le profit des entreprises de 34\% à 42\%. Cette hausse du taux d'imposition décourage l'accumulation du capital. En somme, la réforme engendre une baisse de l'accumulation du capital et de la production respectivement de 8\% et 1\%. Néanmoins, elle améliore l'allocation du capital de 20\%, engendrant des gains de productivité de 1.41\% et une modeste augmentation du bien être des consommateurs.

No more free beer tomorrow? Economic policy and outcomes in Australia and New Zealand since 1984

There are no controlled experiments in macroeconomic policy, nor in systematic programs of microeconomic reform, but a comparison between New Zealand and Australia over the period since 1984 provides as close an approach to such an experiment as is ever likely to be possible. From quite similar starting points the two countries pursued liberal reform programs that differed sharply, mainly as a result of exogenous differences in constitutional structures and the personal styles of the central actors. Australia followed a more cautious, piecemeal, consensus-based approach, whereas New Zealand, in contrast, adopted a radical, rapid, 'purist' platform. The NZ reform package was generally seen by contemporary commentators as representing a 'textbook' model for best practice reform. However, Australia since 1984 has performed much better than New Zealand, whose per capita GDP growth indeed ranked at or near the bottom of the OECD. In this paper, we assess a variety of explanations for the divergences in policies and outcomes.

Rules-based economic governance in the European Union: A reappraisal of national fiscal rules.

The economic and financial crisis of 2007/2009 has posed unexpected challenges on both the global and the regional level. Besides the US, the EU has been the most severely hit by the current economic crisis. The financial and banking crisis on the one hand and the sovereign debt crisis on the other hand have clearly shown that without a bold, constructive and systematic change of the economic governance structure of the Union, not just the sustainability of the monetary zone but also the viability of the whole European integration process can be seriously undermined. The current crisis is, however, only a symptom, which made all those contradictions overt that were already heavily embedded in the system. Right from the very beginning, the deficit and the debt rules of the Maastricht Treaty and the Stability and Growth Pact have proved to be controversial cornerstones in the fiscal governance framework of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). Yet, member states of the EU (both within and outside of the EMU) have shown an immense interest in adopting numerical constraints on the domestic level without hesitation. The main argument for the introduction of national fiscal rules was mostly to strengthen the accountability and credibility of national fiscal policy-making. The paper, however, claims that a relatively large portion of national rules were adopted only after the start of deceleration of the debt-to-GDP ratios. Accordingly, national rules were hardly the sole triggering factors of maintaining fiscal discipline; rather, they served as the key elements of a comprehensive reform package of public budgeting. It can be safely argued, therefore, that countries decide to adopt fiscal rules because they want to explicitly signal their strong commitment to fiscal discipline. In other words, it is not fiscal rules per se what matter in delivering fiscal stability but a strong political commitment.

Kormányközi szerződéssel a költségvetési stabilitásért? (Intergovernmental agreement for fiscal discipline?)

Az EU fiskális szabályai bevezetésük óta az akadémiai kutatások homlokterében állnak. A nemzeti szintű fiskális szabályok vizsgálata ugyanakkor egy jobbára negligált területe maradt a nemzetközi kutatásoknak. Az idén életbe lépett új költségvetési paktum éppen ezen nemzeti szintű, a költségvetés egyensúlyát előíró szabályok bevezetésétől várja a fiskális fegyelem meghonosítását az EU országaiban. A tanulmány megmutatja, hogy az olyan nemzeti szabályok, mint a német aranyszabály, nem tekinthetők a fiskális fegyelem egyedüli letéteményeseinek. Ezek ugyanis többnyire egy átfogó reformcsomag részei voltak csupán. Amire szükség van ezért, az egy átfogó és átgondolt államháztartási reform, valamint a szabályok nemzeti birtokbavétele. Az új paktumot is ezen pontokon volna szükséges erősíteni. ______ The scrutiny of EU fiscal rules such as the Maastricht criteria and the Stability and Growth Pact has become the focus of many scholarly works. The study of domestic fiscal rules, however, has remained a neglected part of research. The new Treaty on Stability, Cooperation and Governance (TSCG), however, makes the analysis of domestic fiscal rules highly relevant, since the treaty requires member states to adopt a balanced budget rule. The paper demonstrates that domestic rules such as the German golden rule were hardly the sole triggering factors of fiscal discipline; rather, they served as the key elements of a comprehensive reform package. Thus, the paper argues that without bold and comprehensive reforms of the general government on the one hand and national ownership on the other hand, no fiscal rule can be effective enough. The new TSCG should be strengthened, therefore, in this particular aspect.

The impacts of trade policy reforms on the Sri Lankan economy

This dissertation presents an analysis of the impacts of trade policy reforms in Sri Lanka. A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model is constructed with detailed description of the domestic production structure and foreign trade. The model is then used to investigate the effects of trade policy reforms on resource allocation and welfare.^ Prior to 1977, Sri Lanka maintained stringent control over its imports through rigid quantitative restrictions. A new economic policy reform package was introduced in 1977, and it shifted Sri Lanka's development strategy toward an export oriented policy regime. The shift of policy focus from a restrictive trade regime toward a more open trade regime is expected to have a significant impact on the volume of external trade, domestic production structure, allocation of resources, and social welfare.^ Simulations are carried out to assess the effects of three major policy reforms: (1) a devaluation of the Sri Lanka rupee, (2) a partial or a complete elimination of export duties, and (3) a devaluation-cum-removal of export duties.^ Simulation results indicate that the macroeconomic impact of a devaluation-cum-removal of export duties can be substantial. They also suggest that the resource-pull effects of a devaluation and a devaluation-cum-export duty removal policy are significant. However, the model shows that a devaluation combined with an export duty reduction is likely to be a superior strategy. ^