924 resultados para Survival analysis (Biometry)


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PURPOSE: The prognostic significance of ATM mutations in chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) is unclear. We assessed their impact in the context of a prospective randomized trial. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We analyzed the ATM gene in 224 patients treated on the Leukemia Research Fund Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia 4 (LRF-CLL4) trial with chlorambucil or fludarabine with and without cyclophosphamide. ATM status was analyzed by denaturing high-performance liquid chromatography and was related to treatment response, survival, and the impact of TP53 alterations for the same patient cohort. RESULTS: We identified 36 ATM mutations in 33 tumors, 16 with and 17 without 11q deletion. Mutations were associated with advanced disease stage and involvement of multiple lymphoid sites. Patients with both ATM mutation and 11q deletion showed significantly reduced progression-free survival (median, 7.4 months) compared with those with ATM wild type (28.6 months), 11q deletion alone (17.1 months), or ATM mutation alone (30.8 months), but survival was similar to that in patients with monoallelic (6.7 months) or biallelic (3.4 months) TP53 alterations. This effect was independent of treatment, immunoglobulin heavy chain variable gene (IGHV) status, age, sex, or disease stage. Overall survival for patients with biallelic ATM alterations was also significantly reduced compared with those with ATM wild type or ATM mutation alone (median, 42.2 v 85.5 v 77.6 months, respectively). CONCLUSION: The combination of 11q deletion and ATM mutation in CLL is associated with significantly shorter progression-free and overall survival following first-line treatment with alkylating agents and purine analogs. Assessment of ATM mutation status in patients with 11q deletion may influence the choice of subsequent therapy.

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PURPOSE: This study sought to establish whether functional analysis of the ATM-p53-p21 pathway adds to the information provided by currently available prognostic factors in patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) requiring frontline chemotherapy. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: Cryopreserved blood mononuclear cells from 278 patients entering the LRF CLL4 trial comparing chlorambucil, fludarabine, and fludarabine plus cyclophosphamide were analyzed for ATM-p53-p21 pathway defects using an ex vivo functional assay that uses ionizing radiation to activate ATM and flow cytometry to measure upregulation of p53 and p21 proteins. Clinical endpoints were compared between groups of patients defined by their pathway status. RESULTS: ATM-p53-p21 pathway defects of four different types (A, B, C, and D) were identified in 194 of 278 (70%) samples. The type A defect (high constitutive p53 expression combined with impaired p21 upregulation) and the type C defect (impaired p21 upregulation despite an intact p53 response) were each associated with short progression-free survival. The type A defect was associated with chemoresistance, whereas the type C defect was associated with early relapse. As expected, the type A defect was strongly associated with TP53 deletion/mutation. In contrast, the type C defect was not associated with any of the other prognostic factors examined, including TP53/ATM deletion, TP53 mutation, and IGHV mutational status. Detection of the type C defect added to the prognostic information provided by TP53/ATM deletion, TP53 mutation, and IGHV status. CONCLUSION: Our findings implicate blockade of the ATM-p53-p21 pathway at the level of p21 as a hitherto unrecognized determinant of early disease recurrence following successful cytoreduction.

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We performed fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH) for 16q23 abnormalities in 861 patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma and identified deletion of 16q [del(16q)] in 19.5%. In 467 cases in which demographic and survival data were available, del(16q) was associated with a worse overall survival (OS). It was an independent prognostic marker and conferred additional adverse survival impact in cases with the known poor-risk cytogenetic factors t(4;14) and del(17p). Gene expression profiling and gene mapping using 500K single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) mapping arrays revealed loss of heterozygosity (LOH) involving 3 regions: the whole of 16q, a region centered on 16q12 (the location of CYLD), and a region centered on 16q23 (the location of the WW domain-containing oxidoreductase gene WWOX). CYLD is a negative regulator of the NF-kappaB pathway, and cases with low expression of CYLD were used to define a "low-CYLD signature." Cases with 16q LOH or t(14;16) had significantly reduced WWOX expression. WWOX, the site of the translocation breakpoint in t(14;16) cases, is a known tumor suppressor gene involved in apoptosis, and we were able to generate a "low-WWOX signature" defined by WWOX expression. These 2 genes and their corresponding pathways provide an important insight into the potential mechanisms by which 16q LOH confers poor prognosis.

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BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Although it has become clear that aneurysmal and occlusive arterial disease represent two distinct etiologic entities, it is still unknown whether the two vascular pathologies are prognostically different. We aim to assess the long-term vital prognosis of patients with abdominal aortic aneurysmal disease (AAA) or peripheral artery disease (PAD), focusing on possible differences in survival, prognostic risk profiles and causes of death. METHODS: Patients undergoing elective surgery for isolated AAA or PAD between 2003 and 2011 were retrospectively included. Differences in postoperative survival were determined using Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analysis. Prognostic risk profiles were also established with Cox regression analysis. RESULTS: 429 and 338 patients were included in the AAA and PAD groups, respectively. AAA patients were older (71.7 vs. 63.3 years, p < 0.001), yet overall survival following surgery did not differ (HR: 1.16, 95% CI: 0.87-1.54). Neither was type of vascular disease associated with postoperative cardiovascular nor cancer-related death. However, in comparison with age- and gender-matched general populations, cardiovascular mortality was higher in PAD than AAA patients (48.3% vs. 17.3%). Survival of AAA and PAD patients was negatively affected by age, history of cancer and renal insufficiency. Additional determinants in the PAD group were diabetes and ischemic heart disease. CONCLUSIONS: Long-term survival after surgery for PAD and AAA is similar. However, overall life expectancy is significantly worse among PAD patients. The contribution of cardiovascular disease towards mortality in PAD patients warrants more aggressive secondary prevention to reduce cardiovascular mortality and improve longevity.

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BACKGROUND: The impact of early valve surgery (EVS) on the outcome of Staphylococcus aureus (SA) prosthetic valve infective endocarditis (PVIE) is unresolved. The objective of this study was to evaluate the association between EVS, performed within the first 60 days of hospitalization, and outcome of SA PVIE within the International Collaboration on Endocarditis-Prospective Cohort Study. METHODS: Participants were enrolled between June 2000 and December 2006. Cox proportional hazards modeling that included surgery as a time-dependent covariate and propensity adjustment for likelihood to receive cardiac surgery was used to evaluate the impact of EVS and 1-year all-cause mortality on patients with definite left-sided S. aureus PVIE and no history of injection drug use. RESULTS: EVS was performed in 74 of the 168 (44.3%) patients. One-year mortality was significantly higher among patients with S. aureus PVIE than in patients with non-S. aureus PVIE (48.2% vs 32.9%; P = .003). Staphylococcus aureus PVIE patients who underwent EVS had a significantly lower 1-year mortality rate (33.8% vs 59.1%; P = .001). In multivariate, propensity-adjusted models, EVS was not associated with 1-year mortality (risk ratio, 0.67 [95% confidence interval, .39-1.15]; P = .15). CONCLUSIONS: In this prospective, multinational cohort of patients with S. aureus PVIE, EVS was not associated with reduced 1-year mortality. The decision to pursue EVS should be individualized for each patient, based upon infection-specific characteristics rather than solely upon the microbiology of the infection causing PVIE.

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Modern Engineering Asset Management (EAM) requires the accurate assessment of current and the prediction of future asset health condition. Suitable mathematical models that are capable of predicting Time-to-Failure (TTF) and the probability of failure in future time are essential. In traditional reliability models, the lifetime of assets is estimated using failure time data. However, in most real-life situations and industry applications, the lifetime of assets is influenced by different risk factors, which are called covariates. The fundamental notion in reliability theory is the failure time of a system and its covariates. These covariates change stochastically and may influence and/or indicate the failure time. Research shows that many statistical models have been developed to estimate the hazard of assets or individuals with covariates. An extensive amount of literature on hazard models with covariates (also termed covariate models), including theory and practical applications, has emerged. This paper is a state-of-the-art review of the existing literature on these covariate models in both the reliability and biomedical fields. One of the major purposes of this expository paper is to synthesise these models from both industrial reliability and biomedical fields and then contextually group them into non-parametric and semi-parametric models. Comments on their merits and limitations are also presented. Another main purpose of this paper is to comprehensively review and summarise the current research on the development of the covariate models so as to facilitate the application of more covariate modelling techniques into prognostics and asset health management.

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Almost 10% of all births are preterm and 2.2% are stillbirths globally. Recent research has suggested that environmental factors may be a contributory cause to these adverse birth outcomes. The authors examined the relationship between ambient temperature and preterm birth and stillbirth in Brisbane, Australia between 2005 and 2009 (n = 101,870). They used a Cox proportional hazard model with live birth and stillbirth as competing risks. They also examined if there were periods of the pregnancy where exposure to high temperatures had a greater effect. Exposure to higher ambient temperatures during pregnancy increased the risk of stillbirth. The hazard ratio for stillbirth was 0.3 at 12 °C relative to the reference temperature at 21 °C. The temperature effect was greatest for fetuses of less than 36 weeks of gestation. There was an association between higher temperature and shorter gestation, as the hazard ratio for live birth was 0.96 at 15 °C and 1.02 at 25 °C. This effect was greatest at later gestational ages. The results provide strong evidence of an association between increased temperature and increased risk of stillbirth and shorter gestations.

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p53 is the central member of a critical tumor suppressor pathway in virtually all tumor types, where it is silenced mainly by missense mutations. In melanoma, p53 predominantly remains wild type, thus its role has been neglected. To study the effect of p53 on melanocyte function and melanomagenesis, we crossed the 'high-p53'Mdm4+/- mouse to the well-established TP-ras0/+ murine melanoma progression model. After treatment with the carcinogen dimethylbenzanthracene (DMBA), TP-ras0/+ mice on the Mdm4+/- background developed fewer tumors with a delay in the age of onset of melanomas compared to TP-ras0/+ mice. Furthermore, we observed a dramatic decrease in tumor growth, lack of metastasis with increased survival of TP-ras0/+: Mdm4+/- mice. Thus, p53 effectively prevented the conversion of small benign tumors to malignant and metastatic melanoma. p53 activation in cultured primary melanocyte and melanoma cell lines using Nutlin-3, a specific Mdm2 antagonist, supported these findings. Moreover, global gene expression and network analysis of Nutlin-3-treated primary human melanocytes indicated that cell cycle regulation through the p21WAF1/CIP1 signaling network may be the key anti-melanomagenic activity of p53.

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Mutations in multiple oncogenes including KRAS, CTNNB1, PIK3CA and FGFR2 have been identified in endometrial cancer. The aim of this study was to provide insight into the clinicopathological features associated with patterns of mutation in these genes, a necessary step in planning targeted therapies for endometrial cancer. 466 endometrioid endometrial tumors were tested for mutations in FGFR2, KRAS, CTNNB1, and PIK3CA. The relationships between mutation status, tumor microsatellite instability (MSI) and clinicopathological features including overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) were evaluated using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox proportional hazard models. Mutations were identified in FGFR2 (48/466); KRAS (87/464); CTNNB1 (88/454) and PIK3CA (104/464). KRAS and FGFR2 mutations were significantly more common, and CTNNB1 mutations less common, in MSI positive tumors. KRAS and FGFR2 occurred in a near mutually exclusive pattern (p = 0.05) and, surprisingly, mutations in KRAS and CTNNB1 also occurred in a near mutually exclusive pattern (p = 0.0002). Multivariate analysis revealed that mutation in KRAS and FGFR2 showed a trend (p = 0.06) towards longer and shorter DFS, respectively. In the 386 patients with early stage disease (stage I and II), FGFR2 mutation was significantly associated with shorter DFS (HR = 3.24; 95% confidence interval, CI, 1.35-7.77; p = 0.008) and OS (HR = 2.00; 95% CI 1.09-3.65; p = 0.025) and KRAS was associated with longer DFS (HR = 0.23; 95% CI 0.05-0.97; p = 0.045). In conclusion, although KRAS and FGFR2 mutations share similar activation of the MAPK pathway, our data suggest very different roles in tumor biology. This has implications for the implementation of anti-FGFR or anti-MEK biologic therapies.

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Exposure to air pollution during pregnancy is a potential cause of adverse birth outcomes such as preterm birth and stillbirth. The risk of exposure may be greater during vulnerable windows of the pregnancy which might only be weeks long. We demonstrate a method to find these windows based on smoothing the risk of weekly exposure using conditional autoregression. We use incidence density sampling to match cases with adverse birth outcomes to controls whose gestation lasted at least as long as the case. This matching means that cases and controls are have equal length exposure periods, rather than comparing, for example, cases with short gestations to controls with longer gestations. We demonstrate the ability of the method to find vulnerable windows using two simulation studies. We illustrate the method by examining the association between particulate matter air pollution and stillbirth in Brisbane, Australia.

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The ability to estimate the asset reliability and the probability of failure is critical to reducing maintenance costs, operation downtime, and safety hazards. Predicting the survival time and the probability of failure in future time is an indispensable requirement in prognostics and asset health management. In traditional reliability models, the lifetime of an asset is estimated using failure event data, alone; however, statistically sufficient failure event data are often difficult to attain in real-life situations due to poor data management, effective preventive maintenance, and the small population of identical assets in use. Condition indicators and operating environment indicators are two types of covariate data that are normally obtained in addition to failure event and suspended data. These data contain significant information about the state and health of an asset. Condition indicators reflect the level of degradation of assets while operating environment indicators accelerate or decelerate the lifetime of assets. When these data are available, an alternative approach to the traditional reliability analysis is the modelling of condition indicators and operating environment indicators and their failure-generating mechanisms using a covariate-based hazard model. The literature review indicates that a number of covariate-based hazard models have been developed. All of these existing covariate-based hazard models were developed based on the principle theory of the Proportional Hazard Model (PHM). However, most of these models have not attracted much attention in the field of machinery prognostics. Moreover, due to the prominence of PHM, attempts at developing alternative models, to some extent, have been stifled, although a number of alternative models to PHM have been suggested. The existing covariate-based hazard models neglect to fully utilise three types of asset health information (including failure event data (i.e. observed and/or suspended), condition data, and operating environment data) into a model to have more effective hazard and reliability predictions. In addition, current research shows that condition indicators and operating environment indicators have different characteristics and they are non-homogeneous covariate data. Condition indicators act as response variables (or dependent variables) whereas operating environment indicators act as explanatory variables (or independent variables). However, these non-homogenous covariate data were modelled in the same way for hazard prediction in the existing covariate-based hazard models. The related and yet more imperative question is how both of these indicators should be effectively modelled and integrated into the covariate-based hazard model. This work presents a new approach for addressing the aforementioned challenges. The new covariate-based hazard model, which termed as Explicit Hazard Model (EHM), explicitly and effectively incorporates all three available asset health information into the modelling of hazard and reliability predictions and also drives the relationship between actual asset health and condition measurements as well as operating environment measurements. The theoretical development of the model and its parameter estimation method are demonstrated in this work. EHM assumes that the baseline hazard is a function of the both time and condition indicators. Condition indicators provide information about the health condition of an asset; therefore they update and reform the baseline hazard of EHM according to the health state of asset at given time t. Some examples of condition indicators are the vibration of rotating machinery, the level of metal particles in engine oil analysis, and wear in a component, to name but a few. Operating environment indicators in this model are failure accelerators and/or decelerators that are included in the covariate function of EHM and may increase or decrease the value of the hazard from the baseline hazard. These indicators caused by the environment in which an asset operates, and that have not been explicitly identified by the condition indicators (e.g. Loads, environmental stresses, and other dynamically changing environment factors). While the effects of operating environment indicators could be nought in EHM; condition indicators could emerge because these indicators are observed and measured as long as an asset is operational and survived. EHM has several advantages over the existing covariate-based hazard models. One is this model utilises three different sources of asset health data (i.e. population characteristics, condition indicators, and operating environment indicators) to effectively predict hazard and reliability. Another is that EHM explicitly investigates the relationship between condition and operating environment indicators associated with the hazard of an asset. Furthermore, the proportionality assumption, which most of the covariate-based hazard models suffer from it, does not exist in EHM. According to the sample size of failure/suspension times, EHM is extended into two forms: semi-parametric and non-parametric. The semi-parametric EHM assumes a specified lifetime distribution (i.e. Weibull distribution) in the form of the baseline hazard. However, for more industry applications, due to sparse failure event data of assets, the analysis of such data often involves complex distributional shapes about which little is known. Therefore, to avoid the restrictive assumption of the semi-parametric EHM about assuming a specified lifetime distribution for failure event histories, the non-parametric EHM, which is a distribution free model, has been developed. The development of EHM into two forms is another merit of the model. A case study was conducted using laboratory experiment data to validate the practicality of the both semi-parametric and non-parametric EHMs. The performance of the newly-developed models is appraised using the comparison amongst the estimated results of these models and the other existing covariate-based hazard models. The comparison results demonstrated that both the semi-parametric and non-parametric EHMs outperform the existing covariate-based hazard models. Future research directions regarding to the new parameter estimation method in the case of time-dependent effects of covariates and missing data, application of EHM in both repairable and non-repairable systems using field data, and a decision support model in which linked to the estimated reliability results, are also identified.

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Background: Chronic leg ulcers cause long term ill-health for older adults and the condition places a significant burden on health service resources. Although evidence on effective management of the condition is available, a significant evidence-practice gap is known to exist, with many suggested reasons e.g. multiple care providers, costs of care and treatments. This study aimed to identify effective health service pathways of care which facilitated evidence-based management of chronic leg ulcers. Methods: A sample of 70 patients presenting with a lower limb leg or foot ulcer at specialist wound clinics in Queensland, Australia were recruited for an observational study and survey. Retrospective data were collected on demographics, health, medical history, treatments, costs and health service pathways in the previous 12 months. Prospective data were collected on health service pathways, pain, functional ability, quality of life, treatments, wound healing and recurrence outcomes for 24 weeks from admission. Results: Retrospective data indicated that evidence based guidelines were poorly implemented prior to admission to the study, e.g. only 31% of participants with a lower limb ulcer had an ABPI or duplex assessment in the previous 12 months. On average, participants accessed care 2–3 times/week for 17 weeks from multiple health service providers in the twelve months before admission to the study clinics. Following admission to specialist wound clinics, participants accessed care on average once per week for 12 weeks from a smaller range of providers. The median ulcer duration on admission to the study was 22 weeks (range 2–728 weeks). Following admission to wound clinics, implementation of key indicators of evidence based care increased (p<0.001) and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis found the median time to healing was 12 weeks (95% CI 9.3–14.7). Implementation of evidence based care was significantly related to improved healing outcomes (p<0.001). Conclusions: This study highlights the complexities involved in accessing expertise and evidence based wound care for adults with chronic leg or foot ulcers. Results demonstrate that access to wound management expertise can promote streamlined health services and evidence based wound care, leading to efficient use of health resources and improved health.

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Background: Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is increasing, along with obesity and type 2 diabetes (T2DM), with Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people* in Australia particularly affected. GDM causes serious complications in pregnancy, birth, and the longer term, for both women and their infants. Women diagnosed with GDM have an eightfold risk of developing T2DM after pregnancy, compared with women who have not had GDM. Indigenous women have an even higher risk, at a younger age, and progress more quickly from GDM to T2DM, compared to non-Indigenous women. If left undetected and untreated, T2DM can lead to heart disease, stroke, renal disease, kidney failure, amputations and blindness. A GDM diagnosis offers a ‘window of opportunity’ for diabetes health interventions and it is vital that acceptable and effective prevention, treatment, and post-pregnancy care are provided. Low rates of post-pregnancy screening for T2DM are reported among non-Aboriginal women in Australia and among Indigenous women in other countries, however data for Aboriginal women are scarce. Breastfeeding, a healthy diet, and exercise can also help to prevent T2DM, and together with T2DM screening are recommended elements of ‘post-pregnancy care’ for women with GDM, This paper describes methods for a data linkage study to investigate rates of post-pregnancy care among women with GDM. Methods/Design: This retrospective cohort includes all women who gave birth at Cairns Base Hospital in Far North Queensland, Australia, from 2004 to 2010, coded as having GDM in the Cairns Base Hospital Clinical Coding system. Data linkage is being conducted with the Queensland Perinatal Data Collection, and three laboratories. Hospital medical records are being reviewed to validate the accuracy of GDM case ascertainment, and gather information on breastfeeding and provision of dietary advice. Multiple logistic regression is being used to compare post-pregnancy care between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal women, while adjusting for other factors may impact on post-pregnancy care. Survival analysis is being used to estimate the rates of progression from GDM to T2DM. Discussion: There are challenges to collecting post-pregnancy data for women with GDM. However, research is urgently needed to ensure adequate post-pregnancy care is provided for women with GDM in Australia.

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Background: Phase III studies suggest that non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients treated with cisplatin-docetaxel may have higher response rates and better survival compared with other platinum-based regimens. We report the final results of a randomised phase III study of docetaxel and carboplatin versus MIC or MVP in patients with advanced NSCLC. Patients and methods: Patients with biopsy proven stage III-IV NSCLC not suitable for curative surgery or radiotherapy were randomised to receive four cycles of either DCb (docetaxel 75 mg/m 2, carboplatin AUC 6), or MIC/MVP (mitomycin 6 mg/m 2, ifosfamide 3 g/m 2 and cisplatin 50 mg/m 2 or mitomycin 6 mg/ m 2, vinblastine 6 mg/m 2 and cisplatin 50 mg/m 2, respectively), 3 weekly. The primary end point was survival, secondary end points included response rates, toxicity and quality of life. Results: The median follow-up was 17.4 months. Overall response rate was 32% for both arms (partial response = 31%, complete response = 1%); 32% of MIC/MVP and 26% of DCb patients had stable disease. One-year survival was 39% and 35% for DCb and MIC/MVP, respectively. Two-year survival was 13% with both arms. Grade 3/4 neutropenia (74% versus 43%, P < 0.005), infection (18% versus 9%, P = 0.01) and mucositis (5% versus 1%, P = 0.02) were more common with DCb than MIC/MVP. The MIC/MVP arm had significant worsening in overall EORTC score and global health status whereas the DCb arm showed no significant change. Conclusions: The combination of DCb had similar efficacy to MIC/MVP but quality of life was better maintained. © 2006 European Society for Medical Oncology.

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Background Currently the best prognostic index for operable non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is the TNM staging system. Molecular biology holds the promise of predicting outcome for the individual patient and identifying novel therapeutic targets. Angiogenesis, matrix metalloproteinases (MMP)-2 and -9, and the erb/HER type I tyrosine kinase receptors are all implicated in the pathogenesis of NSCLC. Methods A retrospective analysis of 167 patients with resected stage I-IIIa NSCLC and >60 days postoperative survival with a minimum follow up of 2 years was undertaken. Immunohistochemical analysis was performed on paraffin embedded sections for the microvessel marker CD34, MMP-2 and MMP-9, EGFR, and c-erbB-2 to evaluate the relationships between and impact on survival of these molecular markers. Results Tumour cell MMP-9 (HR 1.91 (1.23-2.97)), a high microvessel count (HR 1.97 (1.28-3.03)), and stage (stage II HR 1.44 (0.87-2.40), stage IIIa HR 2.21 (1.31-3.74)) were independent prognostic factors. Patients with a high microvessel count and tumour cell MMP-9 expression had a worse outcome than cases with only one (HR 1.68 (1.04-2.73)) or neither (HR 4.43 (2.29-8.57)) of these markers. EGFR expression correlated with tumour cell MMP-9 expression (p<0.001). Immunoreactivity for both of these factors within the same tumour was associated with a poor prognosis (HR 2.22 (1.45-3.41)). Conclusion Angiogenesis, EGFR, and MMP-9 expression provide prognostic information independent of TNM stage, allowing a more accurate outcome prediction for the individual patient. The development of novel anti-angiogenic agents, EGFR targeted therapies, and MMP inhibitors suggests that target specific adjuvant treatments may become a therapeutic option in patients with resected NSCLC.