Hidden state models for time series

Amongst all the objectives in the study of time series, uncovering the dynamic law of its generation is probably the most important. When the underlying dynamics are not available, time series modelling consists of developing a model which best explains a sequence of observations. In this thesis, we consider hidden space models for analysing and describing time series. We first provide an introduction to the principal concepts of hidden state models and draw an analogy between hidden Markov models and state space models. Central ideas such as hidden state inference or parameter estimation are reviewed in detail. A key part of multivariate time series analysis is identifying the delay between different variables. We present a novel approach for time delay estimating in a non-stationary environment. The technique makes use of hidden Markov models and we demonstrate its application for estimating a crucial parameter in the oil industry. We then focus on hybrid models that we call dynamical local models. These models combine and generalise hidden Markov models and state space models. Probabilistic inference is unfortunately computationally intractable and we show how to make use of variational techniques for approximating the posterior distribution over the hidden state variables. Experimental simulations on synthetic and real-world data demonstrate the application of dynamical local models for segmenting a time series into regimes and providing predictive distributions.

Stability analysis and control of multiple converter based autonomous microgrid

In this paper, the stability of an autonomous microgrid with multiple distributed generators (DG) is studied through eigenvalue analysis. It is assumed that all the DGs are connected through Voltage Source Converter (VSC) and all connected loads are passive. The VSCs are controlled by state feedback controller to achieve desired voltage and current outputs that are decided by a droop controller. The state space models of each of the converters with its associated feedback are derived. These are then connected with the state space models of the droop, network and loads to form a homogeneous model, through which the eigenvalues are evaluated. The system stability is then investigated as a function of the droop controller real and reac-tive power coefficients. These observations are then verified through simulation studies using PSCAD/EMTDC. It will be shown that the simulation results closely agree with stability be-havior predicted by the eigenvalue analysis.

Modeling and Verification of Privacy Enhancing Protocols

Privacy enhancing protocols (PEPs) are a family of protocols that allow secure exchange and management of sensitive user information. They are important in preserving users’ privacy in today’s open environment. Proof of the correctness of PEPs is necessary before they can be deployed. However, the traditional provable security approach, though well established for verifying cryptographic primitives, is not applicable to PEPs. We apply the formal method of Coloured Petri Nets (CPNs) to construct an executable specification of a representative PEP, namely the Private Information Escrow Bound to Multiple Conditions Protocol (PIEMCP). Formal semantics of the CPN specification allow us to reason about various security properties of PIEMCP using state space analysis techniques. This investigation provides us with preliminary insights for modeling and verification of PEPs in general, demonstrating the benefit of applying the CPN-based formal approach to proving the correctness of PEPs.

Automated symbolic and numeric procedure for manipulator rigid-body dynamic significance analysis and simplification

This paper describes an automated procedure for analysing the significance of each of the many terms in the equations of motion for a serial-link robot manipulator. Significance analysis provides insight into the rigid-body dynamic effects that are significant locally or globally in the manipulator's state space. Deleting those terms that do not contribute significantly to the total joint torque can greatly reduce the computational burden for online control, and a Monte-Carlo style simulation is used to investigate the errors thus introduced. The procedures described are a hybrid of symbolic and numeric techniques, and can be readily implemented using standard computer algebra packages.

A Helicopter named Dolly : behavioural cloning for autonomous helicopter control

This paper considers the pros and cons of using Behavioural cloning for the development of low-level helicopter automation modules. Over the course of this project several Behavioural cloning approaches have been investigated. The results of the most effective Behavioural cloning approach are then compared to PID modules designed for the same aircraft. The comparison takes into consideration development time, reliability, and control performance. It has been found that Behavioural cloning techniques employing local approximators and a wide state-space coverage during training can produce stabilising control modules in less time than tuning PID controllers. However, performance and reliabity deficits have been found to exist with the Behavioural Cloning, attributable largely to the time variant nature of the dynamics due to the operating environment, and the pilot actions being poor for teaching. The final conclusion drawn here is that tuning PID modules remains superior to behavioural cloning for low-level helicopter automation.

Experiments in learning helicopter control from a pilot

This paper details the development of a machine learning system which uses the helicopter state and the actions of an instructing pilot to synthesise helicopter control modules online. Aggressive destabilisation/restabilisation sequences are used for training, such that a wide state space envelope is covered during training. The performance of heading, roll, pitch, height and lateral velocity control learning is presented using our Xcell 60 experimental platform. The helicopter is demonstrated to be stabilised on all axes using the “learning from a pilot” technique. To our knowledge, this is the first time a “learning from a pilot” technique has been successfully applied to all axes.

Nonlinear control of the Reaction Wheel Pendulum

In this paper we introduce the Reaction Wheel Pendulum, a novel mechanical system consisting of a physical pendulum with a rotating bob. This system has several attractive features both from a pedagogical standpoint and from a research standpoint. From a pedagogical standpoint, the dynamics are the simplest among the various pendulum experiments available so that the system can be introduced to students earlier in their education. At the same time, the system is nonlinear and underactuated so that it can be used as a benchmark experiment to study recent advanced methodologies in nonlinear control, such as feedback linearization, passivity methods, backstepping and hybrid control. In this paper we discuss two control approaches for the problems of swingup and balance, namely, feedback linearization and passivity based control. We first show that the system is locally feedback linearizable by a local diffeomorphism in state space and nonlinear feedback. We compare the feedback linearization control with a linear pole-placement control for the problem of balancing the pendulum about the inverted position. For the swingup problem we discuss an energy approach based on collocated partial feedback linearization, and passivity of the resulting zero dynamics. A hybrid/switching control strategy is used to switch between the swingup and the balance control. Experimental results are presented.

Cluster-based network model for time-course gene expression data

We propose a model-based approach to unify clustering and network modeling using time-course gene expression data. Specifically, our approach uses a mixture model to cluster genes. Genes within the same cluster share a similar expression profile. The network is built over cluster-specific expression profiles using state-space models. We discuss the application of our model to simulated data as well as to time-course gene expression data arising from animal models on prostate cancer progression. The latter application shows that with a combined statistical/bioinformatics analyses, we are able to extract gene-to-gene relationships supported by the literature as well as new plausible relationships.

Output feedback control of discrete-time systems in networked environments

This correspondence paper addresses the problem of output feedback stabilization of control systems in networked environments with quality-of-service (QoS) constraints. The problem is investigated in discrete-time state space using Lyapunov’s stability theory and the linear inequality matrix technique. A new discrete-time modeling approach is developed to describe a networked control system (NCS) with parameter uncertainties and nonideal network QoS. It integrates a network-induced delay, packet dropout, and other network behaviors into a unified framework. With this modeling, an improved stability condition, which is dependent on the lower and upper bounds of the equivalent network-induced delay, is established for the NCS with norm-bounded parameter uncertainties. It is further extended for the output feedback stabilization of the NCS with nonideal QoS. Numerical examples are given to demonstrate the main results of the theoretical development.

Strengthening and formally verifying privacy in identity management systems

In a digital world, users’ Personally Identifiable Information (PII) is normally managed with a system called an Identity Management System (IMS). There are many types of IMSs. There are situations when two or more IMSs need to communicate with each other (such as when a service provider needs to obtain some identity information about a user from a trusted identity provider). There could be interoperability issues when communicating parties use different types of IMS. To facilitate interoperability between different IMSs, an Identity Meta System (IMetS) is normally used. An IMetS can, at least theoretically, join various types of IMSs to make them interoperable and give users the illusion that they are interacting with just one IMS. However, due to the complexity of an IMS, attempting to join various types of IMSs is a technically challenging task, let alone assessing how well an IMetS manages to integrate these IMSs. The first contribution of this thesis is the development of a generic IMS model called the Layered Identity Infrastructure Model (LIIM). Using this model, we develop a set of properties that an ideal IMetS should provide. This idealized form is then used as a benchmark to evaluate existing IMetSs. Different types of IMS provide varying levels of privacy protection support. Unfortunately, as observed by Jøsang et al (2007), there is insufficient privacy protection in many of the existing IMSs. In this thesis, we study and extend a type of privacy enhancing technology known as an Anonymous Credential System (ACS). In particular, we extend the ACS which is built on the cryptographic primitives proposed by Camenisch, Lysyanskaya, and Shoup. We call this system the Camenisch, Lysyanskaya, Shoup - Anonymous Credential System (CLS-ACS). The goal of CLS-ACS is to let users be as anonymous as possible. Unfortunately, CLS-ACS has problems, including (1) the concentration of power to a single entity - known as the Anonymity Revocation Manager (ARM) - who, if malicious, can trivially reveal a user’s PII (resulting in an illegal revocation of the user’s anonymity), and (2) poor performance due to the resource-intensive cryptographic operations required. The second and third contributions of this thesis are the proposal of two protocols that reduce the trust dependencies on the ARM during users’ anonymity revocation. Both protocols distribute trust from the ARM to a set of n referees (n > 1), resulting in a significant reduction of the probability of an anonymity revocation being performed illegally. The first protocol, called the User Centric Anonymity Revocation Protocol (UCARP), allows a user’s anonymity to be revoked in a user-centric manner (that is, the user is aware that his/her anonymity is about to be revoked). The second protocol, called the Anonymity Revocation Protocol with Re-encryption (ARPR), allows a user’s anonymity to be revoked by a service provider in an accountable manner (that is, there is a clear mechanism to determine which entity who can eventually learn - and possibly misuse - the identity of the user). The fourth contribution of this thesis is the proposal of a protocol called the Private Information Escrow bound to Multiple Conditions Protocol (PIEMCP). This protocol is designed to address the performance issue of CLS-ACS by applying the CLS-ACS in a federated single sign-on (FSSO) environment. Our analysis shows that PIEMCP can both reduce the amount of expensive modular exponentiation operations required and lower the risk of illegal revocation of users’ anonymity. Finally, the protocols proposed in this thesis are complex and need to be formally evaluated to ensure that their required security properties are satisfied. In this thesis, we use Coloured Petri nets (CPNs) and its corresponding state space analysis techniques. All of the protocols proposed in this thesis have been formally modeled and verified using these formal techniques. Therefore, the fifth contribution of this thesis is a demonstration of the applicability of CPN and its corresponding analysis techniques in modeling and verifying privacy enhancing protocols. To our knowledge, this is the first time that CPN has been comprehensively applied to model and verify privacy enhancing protocols. From our experience, we also propose several CPN modeling approaches, including complex cryptographic primitives (such as zero-knowledge proof protocol) modeling, attack parameterization, and others. The proposed approaches can be applied to other security protocols, not just privacy enhancing protocols.

Practical application of pseudospectral optimization to robot path planning

To obtain minimum time or minimum energy trajectories for robots it is necessary to employ planning methods which adequately consider the platform’s dynamic properties. A variety of sampling, graph-based or local receding-horizon optimisation methods have previously been proposed. These typically use simplified kino-dynamic models to avoid the significant computational burden of solving this problem in a high dimensional state-space. In this paper we investigate solutions from the class of pseudospectral optimisation methods which have grown in favour amongst the optimal control community in recent years. These methods have high computational efficiency and rapid convergence properties. We present a practical application of such an approach to the robot path planning problem to provide a trajectory considering the robot’s dynamic properties. We extend the existing literature by augmenting the path constraints with sensed obstacles rather than predefined analytical functions to enable real world application.

Stability boundary analysis of the dynamic voltage restorer in weak systems with dynamic loads

In this contribution, a stability analysis for a dynamic voltage restorer (DVR) connected to a weak ac system containing a dynamic load is presented using continuation techniques and bifurcation theory. The system dynamics are explored through the continuation of periodic solutions of the associated dynamic equations. The switching process in the DVR converter is taken into account to trace the stability regions through a suitable mathematical representation of the DVR converter. The stability regions in the Thevenin equivalent plane are computed. In addition, the stability regions in the control gains space, as well as the contour lines for different Floquet multipliers, are computed. Besides, the DVR converter model employed in this contribution avoids the necessity of developing very complicated iterative map approaches as in the conventional bifurcation analysis of converters. The continuation method and the DVR model can take into account dynamics and nonlinear loads and any network topology since the analysis is carried out directly from the state space equations. The bifurcation approach is shown to be both computationally efficient and robust, since it eliminates the need for numerically critical and long-lasting transient simulations.

Analysis of Object-Specific Authorization Protocol (OSAP) using coloured petri nets - Version 1.0

Analyzing security protocols is an ongoing research in the last years. Different types of tools are developed to make the analysis process more precise, fast and easy. These tools consider security protocols as black boxes that can not easily be composed. It is difficult or impossible to do a low-level analysis or combine different tools with each other using these tools. This research uses Coloured Petri Nets (CPN) to analyze OSAP trusted computing protocol. The OSAP protocol is modeled in different levels and it is analyzed using state space method. The produced model can be combined with other trusted computing protocols in future works.

Latent degradation indicators estimation and prediction : a Monte Carlo approach

Asset health inspections can produce two types of indicators: (1) direct indicators (e.g. the thickness of a brake pad, and the crack depth on a gear) which directly relate to a failure mechanism; and (2) indirect indicators (e.g. the indicators extracted from vibration signals and oil analysis data) which can only partially reveal a failure mechanism. While direct indicators enable more precise references to asset health condition, they are often more difficult to obtain than indirect indicators. The state space model provides an efficient approach to estimating direct indicators by using indirect indicators. However, existing state space models to estimate direct indicators largely depend on assumptions such as, discrete time, discrete state, linearity, and Gaussianity. The discrete time assumption requires fixed inspection intervals. The discrete state assumption entails discretising continuous degradation indicators, which often introduces additional errors. The linear and Gaussian assumptions are not consistent with nonlinear and irreversible degradation processes in most engineering assets. This paper proposes a state space model without these assumptions. Monte Carlo-based algorithms are developed to estimate the model parameters and the remaining useful life. These algorithms are evaluated for performance using numerical simulations through MATLAB. The result shows that both the parameters and the remaining useful life are estimated accurately. Finally, the new state space model is used to process vibration and crack depth data from an accelerated test of a gearbox. During this application, the new state space model shows a better fitness result than the state space model with linear and Gaussian assumption.