The prediction of seasonal and inter-annual climate variations and their impacts on the water resources in the eastern seaboard of Thailand

The research of this thesis dissertation covers developments and applications of short-and long-term climate predictions. The short-term prediction emphasizes monthly and seasonal climate, i.e. forecasting from up to the next month over a season to up to a year or so. The long-term predictions pertain to the analysis of inter-annual- and decadal climate variations over the whole 21st century. These two climate prediction methods are validated and applied in the study area, namely, Khlong Yai (KY) water basin located in the eastern seaboard of Thailand which is a major industrial zone of the country and which has been suffering from severe drought and water shortage in recent years. Since water resources are essential for the further industrial development in this region, a thorough analysis of the potential climate change with its subsequent impact on the water supply in the area is at the heart of this thesis research. The short-term forecast of the next-season climate, such as temperatures and rainfall, offers a potential general guideline for water management and reservoir operation. To that avail, statistical models based on autoregressive techniques, i.e., AR-, ARIMA- and ARIMAex-, which includes additional external regressors, and multiple linear regression- (MLR) models, are developed and applied in the study region. Teleconnections between ocean states and the local climate are investigated and used as extra external predictors in the ARIMAex- and the MLR-model and shown to enhance the accuracy of the short-term predictions significantly. However, as the ocean state – local climate teleconnective relationships provide only a one- to four-month ahead lead time, the ocean state indices can support only a one-season-ahead forecast. Hence, GCM- climate predictors are also suggested as an additional predictor-set for a more reliable and somewhat longer short-term forecast. For the preparation of “pre-warning” information for up-coming possible future climate change with potential adverse hydrological impacts in the study region, the long-term climate prediction methodology is applied. The latter is based on the downscaling of climate predictions from several single- and multi-domain GCMs, using the two well-known downscaling methods SDSM and LARS-WG and a newly developed MLR-downscaling technique that allows the incorporation of a multitude of monthly or daily climate predictors from one- or several (multi-domain) parent GCMs. The numerous downscaling experiments indicate that the MLR- method is more accurate than SDSM and LARS-WG in predicting the recent past 20th-century (1971-2000) long-term monthly climate in the region. The MLR-model is, consequently, then employed to downscale 21st-century GCM- climate predictions under SRES-scenarios A1B, A2 and B1. However, since the hydrological watershed model requires daily-scale climate input data, a new stochastic daily climate generator is developed to rescale monthly observed or predicted climate series to daily series, while adhering to the statistical and geospatial distributional attributes of observed (past) daily climate series in the calibration phase. Employing this daily climate generator, 30 realizations of future daily climate series from downscaled monthly GCM-climate predictor sets are produced and used as input in the SWAT- distributed watershed model, to simulate future streamflow and other hydrological water budget components in the study region in a multi-realization manner. In addition to a general examination of the future changes of the hydrological regime in the KY-basin, potential future changes of the water budgets of three main reservoirs in the basin are analysed, as these are a major source of water supply in the study region. The results of the long-term 21st-century downscaled climate predictions provide evidence that, compared with the past 20th-reference period, the future climate in the study area will be more extreme, particularly, for SRES A1B. Thus, the temperatures will be higher and exhibit larger fluctuations. Although the future intensity of the rainfall is nearly constant, its spatial distribution across the region is partially changing. There is further evidence that the sequential rainfall occurrence will be decreased, so that short periods of high intensities will be followed by longer dry spells. This change in the sequential rainfall pattern will also lead to seasonal reductions of the streamflow and seasonal changes (decreases) of the water storage in the reservoirs. In any case, these predicted future climate changes with their hydrological impacts should encourage water planner and policy makers to develop adaptation strategies to properly handle the future water supply in this area, following the guidelines suggested in this study.

Consumer attitudes towards and willingness to pay for pesticide residue limit compliant 'safe' vegetables in Northeast Thailand

Pesticide residue in vegetables is a major food safety issue in Thailand. A range of vegetable products (organic/pesticide-free/ hydroponic) has emerged in Thai markets that guarantee compliance with maximum residue limits. The Government of Thailand is eager to extend the benefits of this suite of alternative vegetables to the entire population, particularly the semi-urban/rural segments that are often bypassed by such speciality products. However, little information is available to guide such an effort, particularly with regard to up-country consumer attitudes, shopping and consumption habits and willingness to pay premiums for such produce. This research aims to fill this gap in knowledge. It reports the results of a survey of vegetable consumption and shopping habits and attitudes of 608 consumers in northeast Thailand. Willingness to pay premiums for pesticide residue limit compliant vegetables is also assessed by using a contingent valuation method, and determinants of willingness to pay are examined using an ordered probit empirical model. Results indicate that, given adequate awareness of relative risks, even up-country consumers are willing to pay market premium levels for these products, and that inadequate availability, rather than lack of demand is the constraining factor. Willingness to pay is found to increase with income, age and supermarket sourcing of vegetables. We also discuss the challenge of improving availability at mainstream outlets.

The relationships of age and length of service with job satisfaction: an examination of hotel employees in Thailand

Earlier studies suggest age is positively associated with job satisfaction, while others use length of service, or tenure, as a predictor of job satisfaction levels. This article examines whether age and tenure are individual determinants of satisfaction, or whether there is an interaction between the two. The results indicate that employee age is not significantly associated with overall job satisfaction level, but that tenure is. There is also significant relationship between tenure and facets of satisfaction (job, pay and fringe benefits), but the effect of tenure on satisfaction is significantly modified by age.

Spatial-temporal aspects of cost-benefit analysis for park management: an example from Khao Yai National Park, Thailand

Using a model calibrated to Khao Yai National Park in Thailand, this paper highlights the importance of generating explicitly spatial and temporal data for developing management plans for tropical protected forests. Spatial and temporal cost-benefit analysis should account for the interactions between different land uses – such as the benefits of contiguous areas of preserved land and edge effects – and the realities of villagers living near forests who rely on extracted resources. By taking a temporal perspective, this paper provides a rare empirical assessment of the importance of quasi-option values when determining optimal management plans.

Relationship between classroom authority and epistemological beliefs as espoused by primary school mathematics teachers from the very high and very low socio-economic regions in Thailand

This article presents findings of a larger single-country comparative study which set out to better understand primary school teachers’ mathematics education-related beliefs in Thailand. By combining the interview and observation data collected in the initial stage of this study with data gathered from the relevant literature, the 8-belief / 22-item ‘Thai Teachers’ Mathematics Education-related Beliefs’ (TTMEB) Scale was developed. The results of the Mann-Whitney U Test showed that Thai teachers in the two examined socio-economic regions espouse statistically different beliefs concerning the source and stability of mathematical knowledge, as well as classroom authority. Further, these three beliefs are found to be significantly and positively correlated.

Review of the potential for co-firing of cassava rhizome for generating heat and power in cassava based bio-ethanol plant in Thailand

Biomass is an important source of energy in Thailand and is currently the main renewable energy source, accounting for 40% of the renewable energy used. The Department of Alternative Energy and E�ciency (DEDE), Ministry of Thailand, has been promoting the use of renewable energy in Thailand for the past decade. The new target for renewable energy usage in the country is set at 25% of the �nal energy demand in 2021. Thailand is the world’s fourth largest producer of cassava and this results in the production of signi�cant amounts of cassava rhizome which is a waste product. Cassava rhizome has the potential to be co-�red with coal for the production of heat and power. With suitable co-�ring ratios, little modi�cation will be required in the co-�ring technology. This review article is concerned with an investigation of the feasibility of co-�ring cassava rhizome in a combined heat and power system for a cassava based bio-ethanol plant in Thailand. Enhanced use of cassava rhizome for heat and power production could potentially contribute to a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and costs, and would help the country to meet the 2021 renewable energy target.

Traditional medicine use by cancer patients in Thailand

Ethnobotanical relevance Cancer patients commonly use traditional medicines (TM) and in Thailand these are popular for both self-medication and as prescribed by TM practitioners, and are rarely monitored. A study was conducted at Wat Khampramong, a Thai Buddhist temple herbal medicine hospice, to document some of these practices as well as the hospice regime. Materials and methods Cancer patients (n=286) were surveyed shortly after admission as to which TMs they had previously taken and perceptions of effects experienced. They were also asked to describe their current symptoms. Treatment at the hospice is built upon an 11-herb anti-cancer formula, yod-ya-mareng, prescribed for all patients, and ideally, its effects would have been evaluated. However other herbal medicines and holistic practices are integral to the regime, so instead we attempted to assess the value of the patients׳ stay at the hospice by measuring any change in symptom burden, as they perceived it. Surviving patients (n=270) were therefore asked to describe their symptoms again just before leaving. Results 42% of patients (120/286; 95% CI 36.4%, 47.8%) had used herbal medicines before their arrival, with 31.7% (38/120; 95% CI 24%, 40.4%) using several at once. Mixed effects were reported for these products. After taking the herbal regime at Khampramong, 77% (208/270 95% CI; 71.7%, 81.7%) reported benefit, and a comparison of the incidence of the most common (pain, dyspepsia, abdominal or visceral pain, insomnia, fatigue) showed statistical significance (χ2 57.1, df 7, p<0.001). Conclusions A wide range of TMs is taken by cancer patients in Thailand and considered to provide more benefit than harm, and this perception extends to the temple regime. Patients reported a significant reduction in symptoms after staying at Khampramong, indicating an improvement in quality of life, the aim of hospices everywhere. Based on this evidence, it is not possible to justify the use of TM for cancer in general, but this study suggests that further research is warranted. The uncontrolled use of TMs, many of which are uncharacterised, raises concerns, and this work also highlights the fact that validated, robust methods of assessing holistic medical regimes are urgently needed.

Why cancer patients choose in-patient complementary therapy in palliative care: a qualitative study at Arokhayasala Hospice in Thailand

Cancer patients often choose complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) in palliative care, often in addition to conventional treatment and without medical advice or approval. Herbal medicines (HM) are the most commonly used type of CAM, but rarely available on an in-patient basis for palliative care. The motivations which lead very ill patients to travel far to receive such therapies are not clear. A qualitative study was therefore carried out to investigate influences on choosing to attend a CAM herbal hospice, to identify cancer patients’ main concerns about end-of-life care. Semi-structured interviews with 32 patients were conducted and analysed using thematic analysis. Patients were recruited from Arokhayasala, a Buddhist cancer hospice in Thailand which provides CAM, in the form of HM, a restricted diet, Thai yoga, deep-breathing exercises, meditation, chanting, Dhamma, laughter and music therapy, free-of-charge. The main factors influencing decision-making were a positive attitude towards HMs and previous use of them, dissatisfaction with conventional treatment, the home environment and their relationships with hospital doctors. Patients’ own perceptions and experiences were more important in making the decision to use CAM, and especially HM, in palliative cancer care than referral by healthcare professionals or scientific evidence of efficacy. Patients were prepared to travel far and live away from home to receive such care, especially as it was cost-free. In view of patients’ previously stated satisfaction with the regime at the Arokhayasala, these findings may be relevant to the provision of in-patient cancer palliative care to other patients.

High genetic diversity in field isolates of Trypanosoma theileri assessed by analysis of cathepsin L-like sequences disclosed multiple and new genotypes infecting cattle in Thailand

In this study, we describe the first survey in Thailand of Trypanosoma theileri, a widespread and prevalent parasite of cattle that is transmitted by tabanid flies. Investigation of 210 bovine blood samples of Thai cattle from six farms by hematocrit centrifuge technique (HCT) revealed 14 samples with trypanosomes morphologically compatible to T. theileri. Additional animals were positive for T. theileri by PCR based on the Cathepsin L-like sequence (TthCATL-PCR) despite negative by HCT, indicating cryptic infections. Results revealed a prevalence of 26 +/- 15% (95% CI) of T. theileri infection. Additionally, 12 samples positive for T. theileri were detected in cattle from other 11 farms. From a total of 30 blood samples positive by HCT and/or PCR from 17 farms, seven were characterized to evaluate the genetic polymorphism of T. theileri through sequence analysis of PCR-amplified CATL DNA sequences. All CATL sequences of T. theileri from Thai cattle clustered with sequences of the previously described phylogenetic lineages TthI and TthII, supporting only two major lineages of T. theileri in cattle around the world. However, 11 of the 29 CATL sequences analyzed showed to be different, disclosing an unexpectedly large polymorphic genetic repertoire, with multiple genotypes of T. theileri not previously described in other countries circulating in Thai cattle. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimating economic interactions of financial suppliers in Thailand

This paper presents a methodology to estimate and identify different kinds of economic interaction, whenever these interactions can be established in the form of spatial dependence. First, we apply the semi-parametric approach of Chen and Conley (2001) to the estimation of reaction functions. Then, the methodology is applied to the analysis financial providers in Thailand. Based on a sample of financial institutions, we provide an economic framework to test if the actual spatial pattern is compatible with strategic competition (local interactions) or social planning (global interactions). Our estimates suggest that the provision of commercial banks and suppliers credit access is determined by spatial competition, while the Thai Bank of Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives is distributed as in a social planner problem.

Information and communication technology (ICT) for development of small and medium-sized exporters in East Asia: Thailand

Includes bibliography

Thailand

Includes bibliography

Frugivory and Seed Dispersal by Northern Pigtailed Macaques (Macaca leonina), in Thailand

Tropical rain forest conservation requires a good understanding of plant-animal interactions. Seed dispersal provides a means for plant seeds to escape competition and density-dependent seed predators and pathogens and to colonize new habitats. This makes the role and effectiveness of frugivorous species in the seed dispersal process an important topic. Northern pigtailed macaques (Macaca leonina) may be effective seed dispersers because they have a diverse diet and process seeds in several ways (swallowing, spitting out, or dropping them). To investigate the seed dispersal effectiveness of a habituated group of pigtailed macaques in Khao Yai National Park, Thailand, we examined seed dispersal quantity (number of fruit species eaten, proportion in the diet, number of feces containing seeds, and number of seeds processed) and quality (processing methods used, seed viability and germination success, habitat type and distance from parent tree for the deposited seeds, and dispersal patterns) via focal and scan sampling, seed collection, and germination tests. We found thousands of seeds per feces, including seeds up to 58 mm in length and from 88 fruit species. Importantly, the macaques dispersed seeds from primary to secondary forests, via swallowing, spitting, and dropping. Of 21 species, the effect of swallowing and spitting was positive for two species (i. e., processed seeds had a higher % germination and % viability than control seeds), neutral for 13 species (no difference in % germination or viability), and negative (processed seeds had lower % germination and viability) for five species. For the final species, the effect was neutral for spat-out seeds but negative for swallowed seeds. We conclude that macaques are effective seed dispersers in both quantitative and qualitative terms and that they are of potential importance for tropical rain forest regeneration. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media New York.