Alternative ways to estimate change points in multinomial sequences. An application to an authorship attribution problem

The statistical analysis of literary style is the part of stylometry that compares measurable characteristics in a text that are rarely controlled by the author, with those in other texts. When the goal is to settle authorship questions, these characteristics should relate to the author’s style and not to the genre, epoch or editor, and they should be such that their variation between authors is larger than the variation within comparable texts from the same author. For an overview of the literature on stylometry and some of the techniques involved, see for example Mosteller and Wallace (1964, 82), Herdan (1964), Morton (1978), Holmes (1985), Oakes (1998) or Lebart, Salem and Berry (1998). Tirant lo Blanc, a chivalry book, is the main work in catalan literature and it was hailed to be “the best book of its kind in the world” by Cervantes in Don Quixote. Considered by writters like Vargas Llosa or Damaso Alonso to be the first modern novel in Europe, it has been translated several times into Spanish, Italian and French, with modern English translations by Rosenthal (1996) and La Fontaine (1993). The main body of this book was written between 1460 and 1465, but it was not printed until 1490. There is an intense and long lasting debate around its authorship sprouting from its first edition, where its introduction states that the whole book is the work of Martorell (1413?-1468), while at the end it is stated that the last one fourth of the book is by Galba (?-1490), after the death of Martorell. Some of the authors that support the theory of single authorship are Riquer (1990), Chiner (1993) and Badia (1993), while some of those supporting the double authorship are Riquer (1947), Coromines (1956) and Ferrando (1995). For an overview of this debate, see Riquer (1990). Neither of the two candidate authors left any text comparable to the one under study, and therefore discriminant analysis can not be used to help classify chapters by author. By using sample texts encompassing about ten percent of the book, and looking at word length and at the use of 44 conjunctions, prepositions and articles, Ginebra and Cabos (1998) detect heterogeneities that might indicate the existence of two authors. By analyzing the diversity of the vocabulary, Riba and Ginebra (2000) estimates that stylistic boundary to be near chapter 383. Following the lead of the extensive literature, this paper looks into word length, the use of the most frequent words and into the use of vowels in each chapter of the book. Given that the features selected are categorical, that leads to three contingency tables of ordered rows and therefore to three sequences of multinomial observations. Section 2 explores these sequences graphically, observing a clear shift in their distribution. Section 3 describes the problem of the estimation of a suden change-point in those sequences, in the following sections we propose various ways to estimate change-points in multinomial sequences; the method in section 4 involves fitting models for polytomous data, the one in Section 5 fits gamma models onto the sequence of Chi-square distances between each row profiles and the average profile, the one in Section 6 fits models onto the sequence of values taken by the first component of the correspondence analysis as well as onto sequences of other summary measures like the average word length. In Section 7 we fit models onto the marginal binomial sequences to identify the features that distinguish the chapters before and after that boundary. Most methods rely heavily on the use of generalized linear models

The phenology and potential for self-pollination of two Australian monoecious fig species

In this preliminary study, the reproductive phenology of two monoecious fig species, Ficus racemosa and F. rubiginosa, was examined in tropical Australia. Syconia (inflorescences) occurred on both species all year round, but pre-floral and interfloral syconia were much commoner than the wasp-receptive and wasp-emitting phases in both species. The temporal overlap of the wasp-receptive and wasp-emitting phases on a single tree indicated that self-pollination was possible in both species and that pollinators may sometimes persist through multiple generations on one tree. This sexual phase overlap was commoner in F. rubiginosa than in F racemosa. The two species also differed in their general within-tree asynchrony, with a higher diversity of phases on F. rubiginosa than on F. racemosa. The time from syconium initiation to ripening was very similar in F. rubiginosa (mean = 48.51 days) and F. racemosa (mean = 43.53 days). However, there was much more variation within and between trees for F. rubiginosa. In addition, the wasp-receptive phase was found to last up to 5 days (rnean = 4.38) in F. rubiginosa. Such longevity should contribute substantially to local pollinator population persistence. Future work should use genetic studies to determine whether self-pollination is common in these fig species.

Amplified fragment length polymorphism genetic fingerprinting challenges the taxonomic status of the near-endemic species Chara curta Nolte ex Kutz. (Characeae)

Amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) genetic fingerprinting of 14 accessions of Chara curta and Chara aspera Willd., sampled across a range of habitats and morphologies in Britain, suggests that these taxa are part of the variation within a single species complex. Two primer combinations generating 397 fragments (97% of which were polymorphic), analysed by Jaccard's similarity coefficient and principal co-ordinate analysis, did not recover groups which reflect the current taxonomy. By contrast with the genetic study, a Gower general similarity coefficient and principal co-ordinate analysis of 52 morphological characters recovered the currently recognized species groups. A Mantel test showed no significant correlation between the genetic data and the morphological data, supporting the hypothesis that phenotypic variability in Chara L. is either to some extent environmentally induced or represents developmental stages. Implications for the conservation status of C. curta in Britain are discussed. (c) 2007 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 2007, 155, 467-476.

Reproductive biology and population studies in two annual shuttle mosses

Observations on clumps of Phascum cuspidatum during the summer and autumn indicated that this species is at least a short-lived perennial, as young shoots develop from old, brown shoots persisting from the previous winter. No young shoots arising by vegetative propagation were recorded in Pottia truncata. Rhizoid tubers were observed in this species, but only in one of the many clumps examined. Spores of both species germinated freely in culture, but when spores were planted in the field young gametophytes developed inconsistently in P. truncata and never in P. cuspidatum. An investigation of spore deposition around an isolated clump of P. truncata suggested that 67% of the spores released were deposited within the clump, and 70% within 2m. Electrophoretic studies indicated limited genetic variation within two populations of each species, with no genotypes in common between the populations. No genetic variation was recorded between gametophytes within individual clumps of either species, nor between sporophytes and their maternal gametophytes, suggesting a high incidence of inbreeding in these monoecious mosses. (author abst.)

Morphological diversity of the genus Licuala (Palmae)

There are about 141 described species of Licuala. Structurally, the genus has very consistent vegetative and fertile characters. As the genus undergoes revision, it is becoming clear that it contains great morphological variation within the strict vegetative and reproductive character constraints found in the genus. This paper describes the variation found in the genus and its significance in taxon delimitation.

Adapting the homes of older people: A case study of costs and savings

Meeting the demand for independent living from the increasing number of older people presents a major challenge for society, government and the building industry. Older people's experience of disabling conditions can be affected by the design and layout of their accommodation. Adaptations and assistive technology (AT) are a major way of addressing this gap between functional capacity and the built environment. The degree of adaptability and the differences in the average cost of adaptation of different types of property are large and there is major variation within property type. Based on a series of user profiles, it was found that a comprehensive package of adaptations and AT is likely to result in significant economies arising from a reduction in the need for formal care services. This finding is sensitive to assumptions about how long an individual would use the adaptations and AT, as well as to the input of informal care and the nature of their accommodation. The present study, which focused on social housing, has implications for how practitioners specify ways of meeting individual needs as well as providing a case to support the substantial increase in demand for specialist adaptation work.

PASSCLAIM - gut health and immunity

Background The gut and immune system form a complex integrated structure that has evolved to provide effective digestion and defence against ingested toxins and pathogenic bacteria. However, great variation exists in what is considered normal healthy gut and immune function. Thus, whilst it is possible to measure many aspects of digestion and immunity, it is more difficult to interpret the benefits to individuals of variation within what is considered to be a normal range. Nevertheless, it is important to set standards for optimal function for use both by the consumer, industry and those concerned with the public health. The digestive tract is most frequently the object of functional and health claims and a large market already exists for gut-functional foods worldwide. Aim To define normal function of the gut and immune system and describe available methods of measuring it. Results We have defined normal bowel habit and transit time, identified their role as risk factors for disease and how they may be measured. Similarly, we have tried to define what is a healthy gut flora in terms of the dominant genera and their metabolism and listed the many, varied and novel methods for determining these parameters. It has proved less easy to provide boundaries for what constitutes optimal or improved gastric emptying, gut motility, nutrient and water absorption and the function of organs such as the liver, gallbladder and pancreas. The many tests of these functions are described. We have discussed gastrointestinal well being. Sensations arising from the gut can be both pleasant and unpleasant. However, the characteristics of well being are ill defined and merge imperceptibly from acceptable to unacceptable, a state that is subjective. Nevertheless, we feel this is an important area for future work and method development. The immune system is even more difficult to make quantitative judgements about. When it is defective, then clinical problems ensure, but this is an uncommon state. The innate and adaptive immune systems work synergistically together and comprise many cellular and humoral factors. The adaptive system is extremely sophisticated and between the two arms of immunity there is great redundancy, which provides robust defences. New aspects of immune function are discovered regularly. It is not clear whether immune function can be "improved". Measuring aspects of immune function is possible but there is no one test that will define either the status or functional capacity of the immune system. Human studies are often limited by the ability to sample only blood or secretions such as saliva but it should be remembered that only 2% of lymphocytes circulate at any given time, which limits interpretation of data. We recommend assessing the functional capacity of the immune system by: measuring specific cell functions ex vivo, measuring in vivo responses to challenge, e. g. change in antibody in blood or response to antigens, determining the incidence and severity of infection in target populations during naturally occurring episodes or in response to attenuated pathogens.

Carbon and nitrogen stable isotope ratio analysis of freshwater, brackish and marine fish from Belgian archaeological sites (1st and 2nd millennium AD)

Carbon and nitrogen stable isotope ratios were measured in 157 fish bone collagen samples from 15 different archaeological sites in Belgium which ranged in ages from the 3rd to the 18th c. AD. Due to diagenetic contamination of the burial environment, only 63 specimens produced results with suitable C:N ratios (2.9–3.6). The selected bones encompass a wide spectrum of freshwater, brackish, and marine taxa (N = 18), and this is reflected in the δ13C results (−28.2‰ to −12.9%). The freshwater fish have δ13C values that range from −28.2‰ to −20.2‰, while the marine fish cluster between −15.4‰ and −13.0‰. Eel, a catadromous species (mostly living in freshwater but migrating into the sea to spawn), plots between −24.1‰ and −17.7‰, and the anadromous fish (living in marine environments but migrating into freshwater to spawn) show a mix of freshwater and marine isotopic signatures. The δ15N results also have a large range (7.2‰ to 16.7‰) indicating that these fish were feeding at many different trophic levels in these diverse aquatic environments. The aim of this research is the isotopic characterization of archaeological fish species (ecology, trophic level, migration patterns) and to determine intra-species variation within and between fish populations differing in time and location. Due to the previous lack of archaeological fish isotope data from Northern Europe and Belgium in particular, these results serve as an important ecological backdrop for the future isotopic reconstruction of the diet of human populations dating from the historical period (1st and 2nd millennium AD), where there is zooarchaeological and historical evidence for an increased consumption of marine fish.

Application of dried blood spots to determine vitamin D status in a large nutritional study with unsupervised sampling: the Food4Me project

An efficient and robust method to measure vitamin D (25-hydroxy vitamin D3 (25(OH)D3) and 25-hydroxy vitamin D2 in dried blood spots (DBS) has been developed and applied in the pan-European multi-centre, internet-based, personalised nutrition intervention study Food4Me. The method includes calibration with blood containing endogenous 25(OH)D3, spotted as DBS and corrected for haematocrit content. The methodology was validated following international standards. The performance characteristics did not reach those of the current gold standard liquid chromatography-MS/MS in plasma for all parameters, but were found to be very suitable for status-level determination under field conditions. DBS sample quality was very high, and 3778 measurements of 25(OH)D3 were obtained from 1465 participants. The study centre and the season within the study centre were very good predictors of 25(OH)D3 levels (P<0·001 for each case). Seasonal effects were modelled by fitting a sine function with a minimum 25(OH)D3 level on 20 January and a maximum on 21 July. The seasonal amplitude varied from centre to centre. The largest difference between winter and summer levels was found in Germany and the smallest in Poland. The model was cross-validated to determine the consistency of the predictions and the performance of the DBS method. The Pearson's correlation between the measured values and the predicted values was r 0·65, and the sd of their differences was 21·2 nmol/l. This includes the analytical variation and the biological variation within subjects. Overall, DBS obtained by unsupervised sampling of the participants at home was a viable methodology for obtaining vitamin D status information in a large nutritional study.

A high-density immunoblotting methodology for quantification of total protein levels and phosphorylation modifications

The components of many signaling pathways have been identified and there is now a need to conduct quantitative data-rich temporal experiments for systems biology and modeling approaches to better understand pathway dynamics and regulation. Here we present a modified Western blotting method that allows the rapid and reproducible quantification and analysis of hundreds of data points per day on proteins and their phosphorylation state at individual sites. The approach is of particular use where samples show a high degree of sample-to-sample variability such as primary cells from multiple donors. We present a case study on the analysis of >800 phosphorylation data points from three phosphorylation sites in three signaling proteins over multiple time points from platelets isolated from ten donors, demonstrating the technique's potential to determine kinetic and regulatory information from limited cell numbers and to investigate signaling variation within a population. We envisage the approach being of use in the analysis of many cellular processes such as signaling pathway dynamics to identify regulatory feedback loops and the investigation of potential drug/inhibitor responses, using primary cells and tissues, to generate information about how a cell's physiological state changes over time.

Cacao swollen shoot virus in Nigeria: analysis of a pathogen and its vectors

Cacao swollen shoot virus (CSSV) causes the Cacao swollen shoot virus disease (CSSVD) and significantly reduces production in West African cacao. This study characterised the current status of the disease in the major cacao growing States in Nigeria and attempted a clarification on the manner of CSSV transmission. Two separate field surveys and sample collections were conducted in Nigeria in summer 2012 and spring 2013. PCR-based screening of cacao leaf samples and subsequent DNA sequencing showed that the disease continues to persist in Ondo and Oyo States and in new cacao sites in Abia, Akwa Ibom, Cross River and Edo States. Mealybug samples collected were identified using a robust approach involving environmental scanning electron microscopy, histology and DNA barcoding, which highlighted the importance of integrative taxonomy in the study. The results show that the genus Planococcus (Planococcus citri (Risso) and/or Planococcus minor (Maskell)) was the most abundant vector (73.5%) at the sites examined followed by Formicococcus njalensis (Laing) (19.0 %). In a laboratory study, the feeding behaviour of Pl. citri, Pseudococcus longispinus (Targioni-Tozzetti) and Pseudococcus viburni (Signoret) on cacao were investigated using electrical penetration graph (EPG) analysis. EPG waveforms reflecting intercellular stylet penetration (C), extracellular salivation (E1e), salivation in sieve elements (E1), phloem ingestion (E2), derailed stylet mechanics (F), xylem ingestion (G) and non-probing phase (Np) were analysed. Individual mealybugs exhibited marked variation within species and significantly differed (p ≤ .05) between species for E1e and E1. PCR-based assessments of the retention time for CSSV in viruliferous Pl. citri, Ps. longispinus and Ps. viburni fed on a non-cacao diet showed that CSSV was still detectable after 144 hours. These unusually long durations for a pathogen currently classified as a semi-persistent virus have implications for the design of non-malvaceous barrier crops currently being considered for the protection of new cacao plantings.

Patterns of hominin occupation and cultural diversity across the Gebel Akhdar of Northern Libya over the last ~200 kyr

Excavations at Haua Fteah cave in Cyrenaica, Libya, have revealed a cultural sequence that may span the last glacial–interglacial-glacial cycle. The TRANS-NAP project has been re-excavating Haua Fteah and conducting geoarchaeological survey of an ecologically diverse landscape that includes the fertile Gebel Akhdar and littoral, pre-desert, and desert biomes. A major aim of this project is to characterize cultural and environmental changes across the region and correlate the surface archaeology with that from Haua Fteah. To date, 181 sites have been recorded, ranging from the Middle Stone Age (MSA) to Late Stone Age (LSA). Their geographic distribution suggests temporal variation in patterns of hominin habitat preference, with significantly more LSA than MSA sites at higher elevations. The surface archaeology also points to substantial spatiotemporal technological variation within the MSA. These patterns may be explained by both paleoenvironmental change and paleodemographic shifts in the region, resulting in a variety of hominin adaptive responses.

The nested assembly of individual-resource networks

P>1. Much of the current understanding of ecological systems is based on theory that does not explicitly take into account individual variation within natural populations. However, individuals may show substantial variation in resource use. This variation in turn may be translated into topological properties of networks that depict interactions among individuals and the food resources they consume (individual-resource networks). 2. Different models derived from optimal diet theory (ODT) predict highly distinct patterns of trophic interactions at the individual level that should translate into distinct network topologies. As a consequence, individual-resource networks can be useful tools in revealing the incidence of different patterns of resource use by individuals and suggesting their mechanistic basis. 3. In the present study, using data from several dietary studies, we assembled individual-resource networks of 10 vertebrate species, previously reported to show interindividual diet variation, and used a network-based approach to investigate their structure. 4. We found significant nestedness, but no modularity, in all empirical networks, indicating that (i) these populations are composed of both opportunistic and selective individuals and (ii) the diets of the latter are ordered as predictable subsets of the diets of the more opportunistic individuals. 5. Nested patterns are a common feature of species networks, and our results extend its generality to trophic interactions at the individual level. This pattern is consistent with a recently proposed ODT model, in which individuals show similar rank preferences but differ in their acceptance rate for alternative resources. Our findings therefore suggest a common mechanism underlying interindividual variation in resource use in disparate taxa.

Mitochondrial DNA Diversity of Orchid Bee Euglossa fimbriata (Hymenoptera: Apidae) Populations Assessed by PCR-RFLP

Euglossa fimbriata is a euglossine species widely distributed in Brazil and occurring primarily in Atlantic Forest remnants. In this study, the genetic mitochondrial structure of E. fimbriata from six Atlantic Forest fragments was studied by RFLP analysis of three PCR-amplified mtDNA gene segments (16S, COI-COII, and cyt b). Ten composite haplotypes were identified, six of which were exclusive and represented singleton mitotypes. Low haplotype diversity (0.085-0.289) and nucleotide diversity (0.000-0.002) were detected within samples. AMOVA partitioned 91.13% of the overall genetic variation within samples and 8.87% (I center dot(st) = 0.089; P < 0.05) among samples. Pairwise comparisons indicated high levels of differentiation among some pairs of samples (I center dot(st) = 0.161-0.218; P < 0.05). These high levels indicate that these populations of E. fimbriata, despite their highly fragmented landscape, apparently have not suffered loss of genetic variation, suggesting that this particular population is not currently endangered.

Ion pair stabilization effects on a series of procaine structural analogs

In this work, a series of 10 structural procaine analogs have been synthesized in order to investigate the structural features affecting the stability of ion pair formation and its influence on the lipophilicity of ionizable compounds. The structural variation within this series was focused on the terminal nitrogen substituents and on the intermediate chain linkage nature. The hydrophobic parameters log P(n) and log P(i) (partition coefficient of the neutral and ionic species, respectively), as well as the ionization constants pK(a) and pK(a)(oct), were obtained from log D-pH profiles measured at pH values ranging from 2 to 12. The difference between log P(i) and log P(n) values (i.e. difflog P) of each prepared compound was considered a measure of the stability of ion pair formation. In this set, the difflog P values varied nearly over one log unit, ranging from -2.40 to -3.37. It has been observed that the presence of hydrogen bonding groups (especially donor) and low steric hindrance around the terminal amine ionizable group increases the relative lipophilicity of the ionic species as compared to the corresponding neutral species. These results were interpreted as due to the increased stability of ion pairs of the compounds bearing these structural features. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.