Spatio-temporal modeling of agricultural yield data with an application to pricing crop insurance contracts

This article presents a statistical model of agricultural yield data based on a set of hierarchical Bayesian models that allows joint modeling of temporal and spatial autocorrelation. This method captures a comprehensive range of the various uncertainties involved in predicting crop insurance premium rates as opposed to the more traditional ad hoc, two-stage methods that are typically based on independent estimation and prediction. A panel data set of county-average yield data was analyzed for 290 counties in the State of Parana (Brazil) for the period of 1990 through 2002. Posterior predictive criteria are used to evaluate different model specifications. This article provides substantial improvements in the statistical and actuarial methods often applied to the calculation of insurance premium rates. These improvements are especially relevant to situations where data are limited.

Modulation of human neutrophil oxidative metabolism and degranulation by extract of Tamarindus indica L. fruit pulp

The tamarind (Tamarindus indica L) is indigenous to Asian countries and widely cultivated in the American continents. The tamarind fruit pulp extract (ExT), traditionally used in spices, food components and juices, is rich in polyphenols that have demonstrated anti-atherosclerotic, antioxidant and immunomodulatory activities. This study evaluated the modulator effect of a crude hydroalcoholic ExT on some peripheral human neutrophil functions. The neutrophil reactive oxygen species generation, triggered by opsonized zymosan (OZ), n-formyl-methionyl-leucyl-phenylalanine (fMLP) or phorbol myristate acetate (PMA), and assessed by luminol- and lucigenin-enhanced chemiluminescence (LumCL and LucCL, respectively), was inhibited by ExT in a concentration-dependent manner. ExT was a more effective inhibitor of the PMA-stimulated neutrophil function [IC(50) (in mu g/10(6)cells) = 115.7 +/- 9.7 (LumCL) and 174.5 +/- 25.9 (LucCL)], than the OZ- [IC(50) = 248.5 +/- 23.1 (LumCL) and 324.1 +/- 34.6 (LucCL)] or fMLP-stimulated cells [IC(50) = 178.5 +/- 12.2 (LumCL)]. The ExT also inhibited neutrophil NADPH oxidase activity (evaluated by O(2) consumption), degranulation and elastase activity (evaluated by spectrophotometric methods) at concentrations higher than 200 mu g/10(6) cells, without being toxic to the cells, under the conditions assessed. Together, these results indicate the potential of ExT as a source of compounds that can modulate the neutrophil-mediated inflammatory diseases. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modulation of doxorubicin-induced clastogenesis in Wistar rat bone marrow cells by vitamin B(6)

Vitamin B(6) has shown to be a potentially effective antioxidant agent, and dietary antioxidants are also frequently valuable inhibitors of clastogenesis and carcinogenesis. The purpose of the present work was to study the clastogenicity of different doses of vitamin B6 and to examine the possible modulating effect of this vitamin on chromosomal damage induced by the antitumor agent doxorubicin in Wistar rats. Experimental groups were set up for pre-and simultaneous treatment with vitamin B6 alone or in combination with DXR. The data obtained from administering diVerent doses of vitamin B(6) (12.5-100 mg/kg b. w.) showed no signigicant increase in total chromosomal aberrations when compared with the negative control. The administration of two doses of 25 mg/kg b. w. or one dose of 50 mg/kg b. w. of vitamin B6 before doxorubicin injection seemed equally effective in protecting cells against doxorubicin clastogenicity. The anticlastogenic effect of vitamin B(6) on DXR-induced chromosomal damage could be ascribed to its antioxidant properties. Vitamin B6 was not clastogenic or cytotoxic in rat bone marrow cells and it plays a role in inhibiting the clastogenicity induced by DXR.

Prolactin: Does it exert an up-modulation of the immune response in Trypanosoma cruzi-infected rats?

During the course of infection by Trypanosma cruzi, the host immune system is involved in distinct, complex interactions with the endocrine system, and prolactin (PRL) is one of several hormones involved in immunoregulation. Although intensive studies attempting to understand the mechanisms that underlie Chagas` disease have been undertaken, there are still some pieces missing from this complex puzzle. Because data are scarce concerning the role of PRL involvement in Chagas` disease and taking into account the existence of crosstalk between neuroendocrine hormones and the immune system, the current study evaluates a possible up-regulation of the cellular immune response triggered by PRL in T. cruzi-infected rats and the role of PRL in reversing immunosuppression caused by the parasitic infection. The data shown herein demonstrate that PRL induces the proliferation of T lymphocytes, coupled with an activation of macrophages and the production of nitric oxide (NO), leading to a reduction in the number of blood trypomastigotes during the peak of parasitemia. During the acute phase of T. cruzi infection, an enhancement of both CD3+CD4+ and CD3+CD8+ T cell populations were observed in infected groups, with the highest numbers of these T cell subsets found in the infected group treated with PRL Because NO is a signaling molecule involved in a number of cellular interactions with components of the immune system and the neuroendocrine system, PRL can be considered an alternative hormone able to up-regulate the host`s immune system, consequently lowering the pathological effects of a T. cruzi infection. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bixin and lycopene modulation of free radical generation induced by cisplatin-DNA interaction

This work evaluated the Modulation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) produced by the cisplatin-human DNA interaction in a cell-free experimental model by the carotenoids bixin and lycopene extracted from, natural dietary Sources and purified through luminol- and Cypridina luciferin methoxy-analogue (MCLA)- enhanced chemiluminescence assays. The results showed that the ROS generation by DNA-cisplatin interaction was inhibited by both lycopene and bixin in a concentration-dependent manner. At a concentration of 100 mu M, lycopene and bixin inhibited Superoxide anion (O center dot(2)) generation at 90% and 82%, respectively, and the total ROS generation at 44% and 42%, respectively. The formation of significant amounts of isomers or degradation products of both carotenoids was not observed after ROS scavenging, as evaluated by high-performance liquid chromatography. Taken together, these results Suggest that carotenoids can be helpful to Modulate the oxidative stress found in cancer therapy with cisplatin. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Intercepting a moving target: effects of temporal precision constraints and movement amplitude

The effects of temporal precision constraints and movement amplitude on performance of an interceptive aiming task were examined. Participants were required to strike a moving target object with a 'bat' by moving the bat along a straight path (constrained by a linear slide) perpendicular to the path of the target. Temporal precision constraints were defined in terms of the time period (or window) within which contact with the target was possible. Three time windows were used (approx. 35, 50 and 65 ms) and these were achieved either by manipulating the size of the bat (experiment 1a), the size of the target (experiment 1b) or the speed of the target (experiment 2). In all experiments, movement time (MT) increased in proportion to movement amplitude but was only affected by differences in the temporal precision constraint if this was achieved by variation in the target's speed. In this case the MT was approximately inversely proportional to target speed. Peak movement speed was affected by temporal accuracy constraints in all three experiments: participants reached higher speeds when the temporal precision required was greater. These results are discussed with reference to the speed-accuracy trade-off observed for temporally constrained aiming movements. It is suggested that the MT and speed of interceptive aiming movements may be understood as responses to the spatiotemporal constraints of the task.

Effects of temporal association on recognition memory

The influence of temporal association on the representation and recognition of objects was investigated. Observers were shown sequences of novel faces in which the identity of the face changed as the head rotated. As a result, observers showed a tendency to treat the views as if they were of the same person. Additional experiments revealed that this was only true if the training sequences depicted head rotations rather than jumbled views; in other words, the sequence had to be spatially as well as temporally smooth. Results suggest that we are continuously associating views of objects to support later recognition, and that we do so not only on the basis of the physical similarity, but also the correlated appearance in time of the objects.

Interaction between Normative Systems and Cognitive Agents in Temporal Modal Defeasible Logic

While some recent frameworks on cognitive agents addressed the combination of mental attitudes with deontic concepts, they commonly ignore the representation of time. An exception is [1]that manages also some temporal aspects both with respect to cognition and normative provisions. We propose in this paper an extension of the logic presented in [1]with temporal intervals.

Variants of temporal defeasible logics for modelling norm modifications

This paper proposes some variants of Temporal Defeasible Logic (TDL) to reason about normative modifications. These variants make it possible to differentiate cases in which, for example, modifications at some time change legal rules but their conclusions persist afterwards from cases where also their conclusions are blocked.

Spatial, temporal, and human dimensions of air pollution in Brisbane

Arriving in Brisbane some six years ago, I could not help being impressed by what may be prosaically described as its atmospheric amenity resources. Perhaps this in part was due to my recent experiences in major urban centres in North America, but since that time, that sparkling quality and the blue skies seem to have progressively diminished. Unfortunately, there is also objective evidence available to suggest that this apparent deterioration is not merely the result of habituation of the senses. Air pollution data for the city show trends of increasing concentrations of those very substances that have destroyed the attractiveness of major population centres elsewhere, with climates initially as salubrious. Indeed, present figures indicate that photochemical smog in unacceptably high concentrations is rapidly becoming endemic also over Brisbane. These regrettable developments should come as no surprise. The society at large has not been inclined to respond purposefully to warnings of impending environmental problems, despite the experiences and publicity from overseas and even from other cities within Australia. Nor, up to the present, have certain politicians and government officials displayed stances beyond those necessary for the maintenance of a decorum of concern. At this stage, there still exists the possibility for meaningful government action without the embarrassment of losing political favour with the electorate. To the contrary, there is every chance that such action may be turned to advantage with increased public enlightenment. It would be more than a pity to miss perhaps the final remaining opportunity: Queensland is one of the few remaining places in the world with sufficient resources to permit both rational development and high environmental quality. The choice appears to be one of making a relatively minor investment now for a large financial and social gain the near future, or, permitting Brisbane to degenerate gradually into just another stagnated Los Angeles or Sydney. The present monograph attempts to introduce the problem by reviewing the available research on air quality in the Brisbane area. It also tries to elucidate some seemingly obvious, but so far unapplied management approaches. By necessity, such a broad treatment needs to make inroads into extensive ranges of subject areas, including political and legal practices to public perceptions, scientific measurement and statistical analysis to dynamics of air flow. Clearly, it does not pretend to be definitive in any of these fields, but it does try to emphasize those adjustable facets of the human use system of natural resources, too often neglected in favour of air pollution control technology. The crossing of disciplinary boundaries, however, needs no apology: air quality problems are ubiquitous, touching upon space, time and human interaction.

Experimentally tracking unstable steady states by large periodic modulation

Experimental suppression of chaos has been achieved in an optically pumped far-infrared (NH3)-N-15 laser which displays Lorenz-like chaos. The method of control involves the application of a large amplitude slow (i.e., nonresonant) modulation of the pump power. This may be related to a delayed bifurcation to chaos observed when the pump power is ramped at a constant late.

Inhibition of phenotype modulation, growth, and migration of vascular smooth muscle cells by a guanosine-rich 30-mer phosphorothioate oligodeoxynucleotide

The testing of a 30-mer dG-rich phosphorothioate oligodeoxynucleotide (LG4PS) for effects on the behaviour of vascular smooth muscle cells (VSMC) in vitro and in vivo is described. LG4PS at 0.3 mu M inhibited significantly the phenotype modulation of freshly isolated rabbit VSMC, and cell outgrowth from pig aortic explants was inhibited similar to 80% by 5 mu M LG4PS. The growth of proliferating rabbit and pig VSMC was inhibited similar to 70% by 0.3 mu M and 5 mu M LG4PS, respectively. Though less marked, the antiproliferative effects of LG4PS on human VSMC were comparable to those obtained with heparin. The cytotoxic effects of LG4PS on VSMC in vitro were low. Despite these promising results, adventitial application of 2-200 nmol LG4PS in pluronic gel failed to reduce vascular hyperplasia in balloon-injured rabbit carotid arteries, and the highest dose caused extensive mortality. (C) 1997 Academic Press Limited.

Changes in three-dimensional architecture of microfilaments in cultured vascular smooth muscle cells during phenotypic modulation

To investigate changes in the three-dimensional microfilament architecture of vascular smooth muscle cells (SMC) during the process of phenotypic modulation, rabbit aortic SMCs cultured under different conditions and at different time points were either labelled with fluorescein-conjugated probes to cytoskeletal and contractile proteins for observation by confocal laser scanning microscopy, or extracted with Triton X-100 for scanning electron microscopy. Densely seeded SMCs in primary culture, which maintain a contractile phenotype, display prominent linear myofilament bundles (stress fibres) that are present throughout the cytoplasm with alpha-actin filaments predominant in the central part and beta-actin filaments in the periphery of the cell. Intermediate filaments form a meshed network interconnecting the stress fibres and linking directly to the nucleus. Moderately and sparsely seeded SMCs, which modulate toward the synthetic phenotype during the first 5 days of culture, undergo a gradual redistribution of intermediate filaments from the perinuclear region toward the peripheral cytoplasm and a partial disassembly of stress fibres in the central part of the upper cortex of the cytoplasm, with an obvious decrease in alpha-actin and myosin staining. These changes are reversed in moderately seeded SMCs by day 8 of culture when they have reached confluence. The results reveal two changes in microfilament architecture in SMCs as they undergo a change in phenotype: the redistribution of intermediate filaments probably due to an increase in synthetic organelles in the perinuclear area, and the partial disassembly of stress fibres which may reflect a degradation of contractile components.

The spatial and temporal distribution of koala faecal pellets

Faecal pellets were collected under trees used by free-ranging koalas in south-western, central and southeastern Queensland to determine the spatial and temporal distribution of pellets with respect to the activity of koalas. Deposition of faecal pellets by koalas was analysed according to the time of day at which the tree was occupied. For free-ranging koalas, 47% of daily faecal pellet output was recovered using a collection mat of 8 x 8 m placed under a day-roost tree. The best predictor of pellet production was the presence of a koala in a tree between 1800 hours and midnight. For other periods, there was no relationship between period of tree occupancy and faecal pellet recovery. There was a significant relationship between the average length of tree occupancy and the time of day that a koala entered a tree.